Wednesday, April 29, 2009

Winning Streak Ends at Five, Mets On Deck

They couldn't do it again, could they? The Phillies batted in the eighth inning, trailing the Nationals 4-1, their five-game winning streak on the line. They stared down the barrel of a 6.4% Win Expectancy. 6.4%? Pshaw! The 2009 Phillies do not fear low probabilities. These Phillies thrive on low probabilities, just as opposing batters have long-thrived upon Washington reliever Kip Wells' pitching stylings. (/Tom McCarthy-esque transition)

With two outs, a 4-1 deficit, and Jayson Werth on second, Raul Ibanez faced Wells. Ibanez, the Titan of WPA, the Vassal of UZR, He Who Shall Not Regress to the Mean. Wells walked the Spanish Jim Thome, as the 5.42 FIPing reliever (in 2008), evidently, feared the possible alternatives. The WE was at 8.6%, as Philadelphia's Bunyanesque folk hero, Matt Stairs, approached the plate as the potential tying run. This is the type of scenario the Phillies envisioned when they surrendered Fabio Castro to acquire the Canadian (Rusty Staub?). The type of scenario where Stairs has been successful so often. Wells delivered the pitch, Stairs swung his powerful club, and grounded out to end the inning. Interim Nats Closer Julian Tavarez held the Phils scoreless in the ninth, and the winning streak was over.

Wednesday's affair was one of those nondescript games that serves mostly to generate statistics. Phillies' starter Brett Myers continued to generate statistics of the mediocre variety, allowing eight hits and three walks in his six-inning stint. Myers did pick up a "quality" start, as he only permitted three runs. Myers threw one hundred and nine pitches, as he scuffled through the Washington lineup. Shane Victorino had a solo homer in the first inning, which accounted for all of Philadelphia's scoring. Jimmy Rollins and Ryan Howard each had a pair of singles, in the Phillies' seven-hit "attack."

The Phillies have Thursday off, before starting a brutal month of May with a series against the Mets. On Friday night. Chan Ho Park will take his 6.43 FIP to the mound, opposing the Mets' Mike Pelfrey (6.63 FIP). Expect to see lots of scoring in a game that should include many of the members of the two respective bullpens. Hopefully, Phillies' closer Brad Lidge will be available to enter the fray. The Phils are probably going to need him.

Tuesday, April 28, 2009

Phils Bomb Nats, Hamels Injured

Remember the offseason, when we were concerned that Utley's balky hip would force him to miss an extended portion of the 2009 season? When journeymen Marcus Giles, Pablo Ozuna, and Miguel Cairo were the top candidates to cover for Utley's absence? Even when Utley was, miraculously, able to start the regular season, there was concern that his performance would still be affected. Well, we can probably stop worrying about the All-Star second sacker, as Utley hit a pair of homers Tuesday, tying him for the NL lead, and keying the Phils' 7-1 win over Washington. Utley's 1.142 OPS, after nineteen games, is a pretty good indication that he is healthy.

Phillies' ace Cole Hamels had a fair bit of adversity of his own in the offseason. A busy banquet and television appearance schedule in January stalled his preparations for the season. Hamels was chosen, over Joe Blanton, to appear on the cover of Sports Illustrated, which put the indispensable ace in the crosshairs of the SI cover jinx. Shoulder inflammation in Spring Training put Hamels further behind, and he wasn't at his best for his first two regular season starts. (Actually, he wasn't even at Adam Eaton's best for those two starts.) In his third start, he was his dominant self again, but was knocked from the game in the fourth inning, his shoulder bruised by a line drive. Hamels returned tonight, and held the Nats scoreless through four. He looked great, at least until he was writhing on the field in pain, after spraining his ankle fielding a bunt. A failed practice pitch later, and Hamels was walking off the field in disgust, leaving the game in Chad Durbin's hands.

Durbin did a superb job, as he held the Nats to a single run in three and two-thirds innings, in picking up the victory. The only hit Durbin surrendered was a solo homer, and he did not walk a batter. He only threw forty-two pitches, which allowed the pimptastic reliever to make it through eight innings, saving the tired bullpen. The Phillies' offense did the rest, with Pedro Feliz and Raul Ibanez contributing home runs. Feliz' three-run blast in the third inning gave the Phils a 5-0 lead, and a 92.1% Win Expectancy. The WE didn't go any lower than 91.7% for the rest of the game.

The big win improved the Phillies' record to 11-8, but there is much concern about the increasing number of injuries. On the plus side, it is better to be injury-stricken now, than during the postseason. Catcher Carlos Ruiz is still hurting, but Lou Marson should be able to hold the fort for awhile, which should give us a chance to see if the young catcher is ready for the bigs. Closer Brad Lidge should be available this weekend, after resting his knee for the Washington series. Cole Hamels expects to be able to make his next start, on five days of rest, thanks to Thursday's day off.

The Phillies are better-positioned to handle these injuries than they have been in the past. No need to call up a Brian Sanches from the minors in 2009. J.A. Happ could slide from the bullpen into a starting role, if needed. In AAA, the Phillies have Andrew Carpenter and Kyle Kendrick, both on the 40-Man Roster, available for recall. They also have veteran relievers Gary Majewski, Mike Koplove, and Tyler Walker with Lehigh Valley, each only a DFA away from joining the big club. If it were up to me, I would DFA Miguel Cairo RIGHT NOW, and recall Walker (8 IP, 1 hit/0 walks, 0 runs) to bolster the bullpen. Given the Phillies starters' inability to go deep into games, and Cairo's inability to contribute in games, why not swap the utility player out for another arm? The Phillies need to avoid overworking their bullpen prior to the postseason. They are not doing well with that, at this point.

Brett Myers will try to lead the Phillies to a series sweep Wednesday night. Myers has been the Phillies' most effective starter in 2009, which is saying absolutely nothing. The Phils need to extend their undefeated streak to six games, and then enjoy a well-deserved day off on Thursday. The Mets come to CBP for a three-game series, starting Friday.

Phils Slam Nats Twice in (Another) Come-From-Behind Win

Five home runs allowed by their pitching. Six runs allowed by their starter, followed by five runs by the bullpen. Deficits of 6-2 and 11-7. A 3% WE in the eighth inning. The Phillies continued to scoff and sneer at The Laws of Probability, in their 13-11 win against the Nationals on Monday. The Phillies' improbable come-from-behind victory, their ninth of that nature this season, improved their record to a season-best 10-8.

Joe Blanton entered Monday's outing, riding the relative high of two "quality" starts in a row. Blanton hoped for a quotation-mark-free quality start, and to extend the Phillies' streak of games-without-a-home-run-allowed to a season-best two games. After Blanton struck out the side, in order, in the first inning, all things seemed possible. Until the second inning, that is. The Nats bunched three singles, a walk, and a sacrifice fly, in taking a 2-0 lead. Blanton got off to a strong start, but faded at about the time Smiley, the Dollar Dog Pig, visited the Phillies' broadcast booth. It is is unclear whether Blanton was disrupted by the sight of a giant pig throwing hot dogs into the crowd, or if he was merely undone by his own mediocrity.

The Phillies came right back in the bottom of the second, tying the game, and returning the WE to 50%. Blanton was able to hold the lead until the Nats started batting again, at which point he allowed titanic home runs to Ryan Zimmerman and Elijah Dukes. Phillies' announcer Tom McCarthy took advantage of the blasts to prepare clips for his audition to join the 2010 Washington Nationals broadcast team. (I think Nats' fans will enjoy his enthusiasm, as well as his ability to transition between even the most disparate topics in a single sentence.) Blanton reduced the Phillies' WE to 10.7% in the fifth, permitting another long homer to Zimmerman, and left the game three batters later, with a 6-2 deficit.

With a four-run deficit, the Phillies needed five batters to tie the game up. Consecutive singles loaded the bases for Ryan Howard, who tied the game with a grand slam off Nats' starter Shairon Martis. The slam improved the Phils' WE from 22.6% to 53.7%. The teams exchanged single runs in the seventh, and entered the eighth tied at seven.

Scott Eyre came on to start the eighth, in a rare non-LOOGY situation. With Brad Lidge unavailable, due to knee pain (as discovered after the game), the plan was for Eyre to set-up for Ryan Madson. Eyre had retired all ten batters he had faced in 2009. By the time he was done for the night, he had retired ten of fifteen batters in 2009. Eyre's performance went walk-homer-walk-homer-walk, at which point he was removed in favor of J.A. Happ. Eyre threw twenty-five pitches (nine for strikes), increased his ERA from 0.00 to 10.80, and reduced the Phillies WE to under 4%. After tonight, Eyre should expect to be re-LOOGified for the immediate future.

The Phils had the Nats right where they wanted them. Catcher Lou Marson started the bottom of the eighth with a strikeout, reducing the Phillies' WE to only 3.0%. Six batters later there were two outs, but the score was now 11-9, and the bases were loaded for Raul Ibanez. With the Nats RH closer Joel Hanrahan in the game, Ibanez hoped to extend the inning, as LH slugger Matt Stairs was on deck. Ibanez did successfully extend the inning, hitting a grand slam to right field. The slam gave the Phillies a 13-11 lead, and increased their WE to 92.6%. (Construction of the Ibanez statue, to be placed in Ashburn Alley, will begin Wednesday morning. ) Ibanez' homer inspired a "Rauuulll" chant, a "We're not worthy chant", and a curtain call by the "Spanish Jim Thome", as he was dubbed by future Nats' announcer Tom McCarthy. Ryan Madson finished up in the ninth, picking up the save with the aid of his 97 MPH heater.

Philadelphia closer Brad Lidge is listed as day-to-day with knee discomfort, so Ryan Madson should handle closing duties for the immediate future. Catcher Carlos Ruiz was scratched from a rehab start for the Iron (no relation to Smiley) Pigs, so he'll likely stay on the DL a bit longer. Lou Marson will get the opportunity to increase his MLB service time, and steal more ABs from Chris Coste. By the time Ruiz is ready, Marson may not be the catcher who is chosen to go back to AAA.

The Phillies send ace Cole Hamels to the mound against Washington Tuesday night. Hopefully, this will allow them to rest the bullpen a bit, and they won't require another statistically improbable comeback. A second wire-to-wire win would be preferable. They just can't keep coming back from miniscule Win Expectancies to win every night, can they?

Sunday, April 26, 2009

Phils Lead For Entire Game, Sweep Florida

Finally. The Phillies put together their most complete performance of the season Sunday, in completing a three-game sweep, with a 13-2 victory in Florida. For the first time in 2009, the Phillies had the lead for the entire game. After Shane Victorino lead off the game with a walk, the Phils' WE was at 53.5%. Their WE never went lower. The Phillies record went above .500, at 9-8, and it could stay there for awhile, with a series against lowly Washington on tap.

Phillies' starter Jamie Moyer had an outstanding game, as is typical when he faces the Marlins (now 12-1). Moyer picked up his third win of the season, tying relief ace Clay Condrey for the team lead. The soft-tossing veteran allowed only a single run (on seven hits/one walk) in six innings, the best outing by a Philadelphia starter, so far. He also contributed at the plate, reaching base on a walk, a HBP, and a single. I'm still not sold on the idea of giving a forty-six year old a two-year contract, but that's one opinion where I sincerely hope I am wrong.

The offense had an excellent approach against the Marlins' Graham Taylor, working him for six walks in three and two-thirds innings. The left-handed Taylor, making his MLB debut, threw ninety-eight pitches, only forty-nine for strikes. The rookie was charged with four earned runs, but he did deserve a little better, as the "defense" behind him was putrid. (Marlins LF Jeremy Hermida is, apparently, not surrendering the title for "NL East's Worst LF" to the Mets' Daniel Murphy without a fight.) The Phils then proceeded to destroy the Florida bullpen, batting around in two consecutive innings (seventh and eighth), aiding Marlins reliever Hayden Penn's candidacy to join former Marlins reliever Logan Kensing in the DFA Pile. The Phillies had twelve hits, but only two (doubles by Bruntlett and Victorino) were for extra bases. Florida used RF Cody Ross to pitch the ninth, and he held Philadelphia scoreless. But, it's difficult to complain about a performance where the Phils had a WE of over 90%, from the seventh inning on.

Worthy of complaining about: Eric Bruntlett batting second. I understand that Phillies MGR Charlie Manuel wanted to use Bruntlett, and give struggling Jimmy Rollins the day off, but, again, with italics and bold caps, ERIC BRUNTLETT BATTING SECOND?! Bruntlett really needs to bat lower in the order, in the event that the Phillies feel the need to even give him a start. (Personally, I think I'd take my chances with Pedro Feliz at short, and Greg Dobbs at third. Bruntlett is just really bad at baseball.)

Raul Ibanez has had a very successful start to his career as a Phillie, but it is possible that there are some among us who are getting too excited by his "defensive proficiency." Specifically, Phillies announcers Tom McCarthy and Sarge Matthews, Sr., who are ready to forget about the scouting reports that consider Ibanez to be "Burrell-esque" in his fielding ability.There have only been seventeen games played. His poor defensive performance over the last two seasons is a better indicator of his proficiency in the field, than our perceptions of his ability from watching him play in 2009. However, the Phillies would not be a .529 team without the numerous contributions Ibanez has made, mostly at the plate, so far. In the unlikely event that he keeps this up for three seasons, I'll be the first to recommend that the Phillies re-sign him. (But only for one season, as he'll be 40. And there would need probably need to be a pay cut.)

The surging Phillies return home to face the Nationals on Monday night. Phillies starter Joe (the Lumber) Blanton will try to catch Chan Ho Park in the home run race, as well as throw his third "quality" start in a row. He'll be opposed by Shairon Martis, who has also had two quality starts in a row. (Blanton's starts only met the bare minimum for a QS, hence the quotes.) Washington has won one game in a row, and one of their last four. The Phillies, winners of three in a row, need to pick up some wins against the Nats, before heading into a weekend series with the archrival New York Mets.

Phils Come-From-Behind (Again) to Beat Marlins

This season's edition of the Phillies has shown a propensity to allow home runs, and fall behind early in games. Consistently mediocre starting pitching has gifted the Phillies' offense with many opportunities for come-from-behind wins. On Saturday night in Florida, Phils' starter Chan Ho Park turned a 2-0 lead in the top of the 4th, into a 4-2 deficit after four innings. But Philadelphia came back from a 4-3 deficit in the ninth (16.9% WE), to win in ten innings, 6-4. The victory improved the Phils' record to 8-8, with the Phillies having trailed in every game.

Philadelphia jumped to an early 2-0 lead, against Marlins' starter Chris Volstad (2.70 ERA), on home runs from sluggers Chan Ho Park and Ryan Howard. Park hasn't done too well with the pitching so far, but maybe he can add some value as a bat off the bench. He probably has more pop that Miguel Cairo. The Phils squandered some chances for big innings (2-11 w/RISP), but those two hits, singles by Chase Utley and Jayson Werth in the tenth inning, gave them enough runs to win.

Chan Ho Park was much improved over his previous (horrendously atrocious) starts. He allowed four runs, on two home runs (of course) in the fourth inning, but did not permit a run in the other six innings he worked. Seven innings, five hits, one walk, four runs, these are numbers we can live with from a fifth starter. Park retired nine of the first ten, and twelve of the last fourteen, batters he faced. Hopefully, Park can put up that type of performance in future starts.

Brad Lidge held the 6-4 lead in the tenth inning, striking out the side, and picking up his fourth save. Unfortunately, he also loaded the bases on a pair of walks. He struck out Cody Ross to end the game, and did not allow a run, but a thirty-four pitch (seventeen strike) inning does not exactly inspire confidence. Ryan Madson picked up his second win, with a scoreless, two strikeout ninth inning.

The Phillies go for the sweep Sunday afternoon, with Marlin-killer Jamie Moyer (11-1) opposed by Marlins rookie Graham Taylor. Taylor, not to be confused with the English footballer of some note, has never pitched above AA, and is more of a pitch-to-contact type, than an overpowering hurler. His left-handedness may have been a big factor in his recall. This should be a good chance for the Phillies to take an early lead, and actually keep it for the entire game. A patient approach could help knock Taylor out of the game early, and the Phils could be able to fatten their stats against the rookie, and the Marlins' pen. A sweep against the Marlins would improve the Phils' record to 9-8, with a three-game series at CBP against the lowly NatInals to follow. This is a prime opportunity for the Phillies to make up for the poor start to the 2009 season.

Saturday, April 25, 2009

Victorino Slams Florida in Highly Unlikely Win

The Phils fell behind in the first inning Friday night in Florida, as per their 2009 usual. With two outs, Phillies starter Brett Myers allowed a three-run homer to Marlins 2B Dan Uggla, who had been hitless in twenty-one at bats. Florida ace Josh Johnson (seven innings, three hits/two walks, eight Ks, .334 WPA) and reliever Leo Nunez (three batters, two Ks, groundout) shut out Philadelphia through eight innings. Innings two through eight were scoreless for both teams, with most of the excitement generated by the hounds in the stands on Bark at the Park Night.(An attendance of 29,032 humans, and 1540 dogs, was announced.)

Matt Lindstrom came on in the ninth to finish off the Phils, with his 97 MPH fastball. Ryan Howard grounded out to start the inning, reducing the Phillies' WE to a lowly 1.5%. But Jayson Werth followed with a single, and Raul Ibanez with a walk, increasing that WE to 8.4%. Pinch-hitter Matt Stairs knocked in Werth with a single, pulling the Phils to within 3-1. A Lou Marson walk later, and the Phillies had runners on first and third, and a WE of 18.2%. With the pitcher's spot coming up, Manager Charlie Manuel went to his bench for...Eric Bruntlett. (Using Chris Coste was probably a better option, but Manuel chose not to use his backup catcher. ) Bruntlett whiffed, reducing the WE to 14.7%. With two outs, slumping Jimmy Rollins worked a bases-loaded walk, making the score 3-2. Shane Victorino was up next, with the tying run on third. Could The Flyin' Hawaiian, one for six in his career against Lindstrom, come through? NO QUESTIONS ASKED! Victorino drove the ball into the stands in right, for his first regulsar season grand slam. (You may recall Victorino's slam against Sabathia in the 2008 playoffs.) Chase Utley followed with another homer, ending Lindstrom's night. Ryan Madson held Florida scoreless in the bottom of the frame, and the Phillies had an unlikely 7-3 victory.

Brett Myers didn't allow another run after the first inning, and picked up a quality start. But there wasn't much "quality" about his performance. He surrendered eight hits and six walks (!) over six innings, as Florida failed to extend their lead. Myers threw only sixty-two of his one hundred and nineteen pitches for strikes. (Yes. You read that correctly. Manuel kept Myers in for 119 pitches. A troubling decision, especially considering that it is April. Perhaps Manuel felt the need to rest his bullpen, with Chan Ho Park starting Saturday, and J.A. Happ throwing forty-three pitches on Thursday?) Myers was fortunate to exit the game with a 4.91 season ERA. His quest for a lucrative free agent contract is not off to a good start.

Clay Condrey picked up his third win of the young season, working the seventh and eighth innings. With a 1.86 ERA, Condrey appears to have switched places with Chad Durbin in the bullpen pecking order. Condrey has only permitted seven hits and two walks, in nine and two-thirds innings this season. Small sample size alert, but Condrey also has nine strikeouts this season, giving him a K/9 of 8.38 (2008: 4.43 K/9).

The Phils will face Chris Volstad (2-0, 2.76) Saturday night, in another unfavorable pitching matchup. Volstad has had some control issues this season, walking eleven in sixteen and one-third innings. With Park starting for the Phils, we could see a walk-fest on Saturday. The Phillies' offense had been held to two runs over twenty-six innings, before their seven-run ninth on Friday. Hopefully, that big inning is the start of the offensive explosion we've been anticipating.

Thursday, April 23, 2009

Phils Defeated by Brewers, Bush

Earlier this week, Phillies ace Cole Hamels held himself accountable for his poor start to the season, and indicated that he expected to be much improved in his Thursday start against Milwaukee. He was pretty accurate in his prediction. His command was superb, his velocity was excellent, and he was the dominant Cole who lead the WFC through the last postseason. Through three scoreless innings, Hamels had allowed a single, with no walks, and six strikeouts. He was primed for a memorable pitching performance.

Wednesday night, the Phillies belted the ball all over CBP. But those hard-hit balls just didn't find holes. On Thursday, their luck seemed due to change. Brewers starter David Bush had a FIP of 4.93 in 2008, with a pedestrian 5.3 K/9. With a .245 BABIP in 2008, Bush's luck also seemed due for a change, a change for the worse. A flyball, pitch-to-contact, hurler with a mid/high 80's MPH fastball at CBP? The Phils were ready for a stat-fattening feast.

One (of the many) reasons we love baseball: we just don't know what's going to happen. Hamels looked unbeatable, as he entered the top of the 4th inning. After he retired his eighth consecutive batter to start the inning, Hamels allowed a single to Corey Hart. Ryan Braun followed with a two-run homer. The next batter, Prince Fielder, blasted a line drive off of Hamels' trillion dollar left shoulder, ending the ace's day. In the span of three batters, the Phils trailed 2-0, with their injured starter out of the game. (Hamels has a bruise, but is not expected to miss a start.)

There's no question that David Bush's day was a bit more memorable than Hamels'. The question is "How did he do it?" His velocity was as mediocre as usual. He walked three batters, and hit two others. He also took a no-hitter into the eighth inning. The Phils did have a couple of deep balls to left field knocked down by the wind. But, most of the time, Bush just seemed to keep them off balance. Unlike Wednesday, the Phillies didn't have many hard-hit balls. They fouled off a lot of pitches, and they didn't make good contact with the pitches they hit into fair territory. It was an unlikely, but impressive, no-hit bid.

With one out in the eighth, Bush still hadn't given up a hit. You had to root for the guy. Philadelphia-area product pitching in front of his family, including his Phillies season ticket-holding parents. Down 6-0 in the eighth, the Phillies were all but done. Might as well root for history, right? (NO, NO, NO! That's Eaton. You root for your team until the game is over. Then you root for them in the next game. The Phillies came back from a .7% WE just last week. So, coming back from a .6% WE, while unlikely, is possible. And, yes, I just used "Eaton" as an expletive. None of the conventional profanities seemed powerful enough here.)

The no-hitter was finally broken up with one out in the eighth, when Phillies pinch-hitter Matt Stairs drove a solo home run, just inside the right field foul pole. Bush tried to keep the ball in the park with his bare hands, but had as much luck as San Diego Padres reliever Edwin Moreno did on Sunday, when Moreno allowed Raul Ibanez' walk-off homer. Stairs' homer increased the Phils' WE to 1.4%, but it never got higher. The loss dropped Philadelphia's record to 6-8.

The Phillies travel to Florida this weekend to take on the Marlins, who were expected to battle the NatInals for the NL East cellar. However, the Marlins are 11-4 on the season, with the highest winning percentage (.733) in MLB. Florida has Josh Johnson (7.00 K/BB, 2.45 FIP) scheduled to start on Friday, opposed by the Phillies' Brett Myers (3.00 K/BB, 6.95 FIP). Doesn't look like a promising matchup for the Phils, but anything could happen. That's why they play the games, and that's why we watch them.

Wednesday, April 22, 2009

Phils Defeated by Brewers, BABIP

BABIP is a fickle deity. A day after plating eleven runs, the Phillies were held to a single marker, in Wednesday night's 3-1 loss to Milwaukee. Philadelphia had a lot of hard-hit balls, but they just didn't seem to find holes. Some credit is also due Milwaukee starting pitcher Braden Looper (six scoreless), and the Brewers' bullpen (one run in three innings). It's a long season, and the Phillies won't be the better, or luckier, team every night. They need to put this loss behind them, and win the three-game series Thursday.

The Phillies' offense didn't have too many positives tonight. Jayson Werth hit a solo homer in the ninth, accounting for the only run. The Phils managed to get the tying run on base in the ninth, before Brewers reliever Todd Coffey whiffed pinch-hitter Chris Coste to end the game. Werth had a pair of hits, and Chase Utley had a single, and has now reached base in thirty-three consecutive games. That was pretty much it, as the Phillies' bats combined for a woeful -.509 WPA. As a result of the difficulties on offense, the Phils' WE was never higher than 16.7%, after the Brewers' two-run sixth inning.

Joe Blanton turned in a "quality" start for the Phils, allowing three runs in six innings. But he allowed eight hits and a walk, and only met the minimum requirements for a quality start. He threw one hundred and seven pitches, with only sixty-four for strikes. Blanton needs to do a better job conserving pitches, so he can go deeper into ballgames. The Brewers' bats have been struggling, for the most part, and Blanton should have trusted his stuff a bit more, and gone after the "weak links" in the opposing lineup. The Phils surrendered some good prospects to acquire Blanton, and, postseason success aside, it's reasonable to expect more from the alleged "innings-eater."

The Phillies will try to take the rubber game Thursday, as Cole Hamels makes his third start in an afternoon match-up. Hamels has, typically, performed much better in night games, but Monday's rain out pushed Hamels back a day to the matinee game. It might have been prudent to have had Hamels pitch Wednesday night, which would have been his fifth day. However, Hamels has indicated that he's "ready" now, having overcome his myriad offseason distractions. Considering that BABIP prays to Cole Hamels, the Brewers shouldn't pose much of a problem.

Tuesday, April 21, 2009

Winning the Game is the First Priority

There were no focus issues for the Phillies Tuesday night, as they defeated the Brewers 11-4. Philadelphia jumped to a 4-1 lead after an inning, and maintained a WE of over 80% for the majority of the rout. The game was interrupted by a seventy-eight minute rain delay in the seventh, which destroyed Jamie Moyer's quest for a quality start.

The Phillies' bats did most of the damage in the win, as each spot in the batting order, with the exceptions of the fourth (Ryan Howard) and the ninth (Moyer/PH Dobbs), had at least a hit. The Phils scored four of their runs in the first inning, and five more in the fifth. Jayson Werth, Pedro Feliz, Shane Victorino, Chris Coste, and Jimmy Rollins all had multiple hits, as the Phillies' offense combined for a .494 WPA. Werth and Feliz each had team-leading WPAs of .140, with Feliz having the only Philly homer. Brewers starter Manny Parra and reliever Jorge Julio were responsible for ten of the eleven runs, and posted WPAs of -.317 and -.124, respectively. Former Phillie R.J. Swindle also appeared, throwing an 80 MPH fastball, and a mid-50s MPH pitch that not even Gameday Premium could identify. (Note: That's his curveball, Gameday!) Swindle can be a very effective LOOGY, but allowing him to face RH batters (EVER!) is a horrible mistake. Hopefully, he'll stick around with Milwaukee, because his delightful Pitch F/x data will be sorely missed, if he gets sent back down to AAA.

Jamie Moyer had a satisfactory performance, in picking up his two hundred and forty-eighth career victory, but was robbed of a quality start by Umpire Joe West. Despite the presence of a TYPHOON at CBP, West opted to start play in the top of the seventh. Moyer allowed two baserunners, Chad Durbin relieved him, West called for the tarp. When play resumed, Clay Condrey allowed the fourth Brewer run to score on an infield hit. Moyer's final line was six innings and four runs allowed. If West had called for the tarp to start the inning, Moyer would have had a six-inning, three-run quality start. But the real issue here is, "When will they rename and redefine (six innings/two runs, seven innings/three runs?) the quality start, and call it a "Hamels?" My guess is that it won't be until after Hamels retires. So, in about thirty years.

The Phillies will send Joe (The Lumber) Blanton to the mound against Milwaukee Wednesday night. Blanton has been referred to often as an "innings-eater" but he has been way too finicky to merit that appellation. He only survived seven innings in three (of thirteen) regular season starts with Philadelphia, and only pitched eight innings once (with Oakland) in 2008. He threw in excess of one-hundred pitches on a regular basis, but needs to stretch those pitches out over more than his typical "five-plus" innings. Milwaukee will counter with Braden Looper, and, hopefully, use R.J. Swindle later in the game. Preferably, against the Phils' right-handed bats.

It's Not All Cole's Fault

Prior to Monday night's rain out, the truth about Cole Hamels was revealed. Some suspected that Cole's slow start was due to an undisclosed injury. Others believed his innings increase from 2007 to 2008 had Verduccified him. Still others believed that the pressure of being the last son of Krypton weighed too heavily upon the young southpaw. As it turns out, the truth was that all of the postseason, and post-postseason, responsibilities of Being Cole Hamels had set his training schedule weeks behind. Cole is (almost) Cole again, and expects to be back in form for his Thursday start against Milwaukee. Nothing to worry about, not even that soon-to-be-reduced ERA of 11.17.

Cole has learned from his mistakes, and won't repeat them during the next offseason. But Cole doesn't deserve all the blame for his poor start. None of us are blameless. Making certain these issues don't happen after 2009:WFC II will take a team effort, and not just from those who happen to be on the actual team. We all need to contribute.

One of the offseason concerns was balance. Cole was spread thin, while the other members of the rotation were grossly underutilized. For example, the Late Show with David Letterman. Couldn't that appearance have been delegated to Brett Myers? Myers could have engaged in combat with a gang of manatees, utilizing his boxing pedigree, as well as his dazzling repertoire of pitches. Wouldn't The Ellen Degeneres Show have been well-served with a Jamie Moyer appearance? Would you purchase an issue of Sports Illustrated, if the cover story was "The Fabulous New Life of Joe Blanton?" Of course, the answer to all of these questions is a resounding YES! For best results, we need to divide the offseason responsibilities.

Another issue was travel. Cole made numerous trips from Clearwater to the Northeast for a variety of functions. As a result, he would often go days between workouts. This wasn't fair to Cole, or to the City of Clearwater. These appearances should have been at a time and place of Cole's choosing. Why can't Comcast interview him in Clearwater for their team-sponsored shows? Why can't the Resorts Atlantic City fly their high rollers to Clearwater, to meet-and-greet Cole? Why does the New York Chapter of the Baseball Writers' Association of America feel a need to hold their Awards Banquet in New York? Florida is MUCH nicer in January, as well as in the other eleven months. Shouldn't the BBWAA be a little less focused on all the banquets, and more focused on updating their website and/or (correctly) inducting Bert Blyleven into The Hall of Fame? Obviously, these mistakes weren't Cole's fault.

Finally, there is the adoption issue. Cole spent a lot of time in the offseason working on adopting a child from Malawi. This is time that could have been spent training. Or relaxing. The solution here is rather obvious. Who wouldn't freely surrender their first-born to Cole? If you wouldn't, you're just not a good Phillies fan. If you wouldn't prefer to have your child raised by Cole and Heidi, well, you're probably just not that good of a parent.

Phillies host the Sabathia-less Brewers Tuesday. Jamie Moyer v. Manny Parra. The Phils get to .500 tonight. Lock it up.

Sunday, April 19, 2009

Phils Win on Ibanez Walkoff

Raul Ibanez had the big hit in Sunday's game, a walkoff two-run homer that secured a come-from-behind 5-4 victory over the Padres. But Manager Charlie Manuel was the key to the Phillies' win. In a day that began with a TastyKake Cake, and ended with a cream pie, it was Manuel's machinations that made the difference for Philadelphia.

The Padres had to be feeling pretty confident going into Sunday's game. They had beaten the Phillies twice in a row, and the Phillies' top two relievers, Brad Lidge and Ryan Madson, were likely unavailable for Sunday's matchup. Chan Ho Park was available to make his start for the Phillies. Unfortunately for the Phils, Park hasn't been a good starting pitcher since the Padres had a twenty-three year old future ace named Adam Eaton. Manuel pulled the strings further, by starting Eric Bruntlett over Jimmy Rollins and Matt Stairs over Jayson Werth. Seeing Bruntlett batting second, and an outfield featuring Ibanez and Stairs at the corners, had to make San Diego more than a little complacent. Manuel's moves defied conventional wisdom, sneered at common sense, and displayed a considerable level of disdain for The UZR Movement. However, Manuel's genius would soon become apparent to all.

Chan Ho Park performed about as well as expected. His outing was adversely affected by some poor outfield defense, which included Ibanez misplaying a single into a triple. But he was also aided by some strong defense, most notably by Ryan Howard, who seems focused on earning the $100K Gold Glove incentive that was wisely included in his contract extension. The net result for Park was five innings, with four runs allowed, on eight hits and a walk. Park left the game with a 4-0 deficit, and a -.169 WPA for his efforts, but did manage to further increase his probability of joining the Phillies bullpen before J.C Romero does. J.A. Happ's three scoreless innings (.085 WPA) also aided Park with that particular probability.

The Phillies entered the bottom of the sixth with a WE of 10.1%. Manuel had the Padres right where he wanted them. Chase Utley finally solved San Diego starter Josh Geer, launching a two-run homer which cut the deficit in half. Jimmy Rollins came off the bench in the eighth, and blasted a solo homer off Padres reliever Edward Mujica. The Phillies entered the ninth still trailing by a run, with a WE of only 20.9%. The final piece of Manuel's plan was about to come into play.

Greg Maddux, brother of Phillies great Mike Maddux, was known to set up batters in advance. He would groove pitches in Spring Training, to increase his chances of success against those batters when the games started to count. Manuel had maneuvered the Padres into using closer Heath Bell to finish the two San Diego wins that began the four-game set. As a result, Bell was unavailable for Sunday's game. Manuel's innovative adaptation of Maddux' ploy resulted in a save opportunity for Edwin Moreno, who had all of seven innings worth of MLB experience. Ryan Howard started the inning with a single, and Ibanez followed with a drive towards the right field seats. The Phillies' WE soared with the blast, as Moreno attempted to keep the ball in the park by waving it down. If there exists a man who can control the laws of physics and probability with his bare hands, his name is not Edwin Moreno. Ibanez' walk-off homer disappeared into the crowd in right field, and the Phillies had improved their record to 5-6.

The day began with a pregame ceremony, one of the traditions of the 2009 Phillies. The birthday of the greatest mascot/Galapagos Island native in baseball history, the Phillie Phanatic, was celebrated with a gaggle of bonus mascot appearances, and a tantalizing cake. The cake (kake?) was made up of several types of TastyKakes, including Butterscotch Krimpets, Cupcakes, and Kandy Kakes. The Greatest of All TastyKakes, The Chocolate Junior, appeared to be absent from this delicious combination of culinary delights. A culinary delight of somewhat lesser magnitude (McCarthy-esque transition alert!) appeared in the postgame, when Ibanez' interview was cut short by a cream pie to the face, courtesy of Shane Victorino.

Philadelphia will attempt to even their season record at 6-6, and ensure a series split with the Padres, in Monday night's series finale. Jamie Moyer will take the mound for the Phillies, opposed by San Diego starter Kevin Correia. Correia is probably best known for attending Cal Poly San Luis Obispo, the alma mater of former Phillies ace Mike Krukow. Moyer is probably best known for his two hundred and forty-seven career wins, which is only one hundred and eight fewer than Mike Maddux' brother, Greg.

The Imperfect Season?

Scott Eyre held the fate of Brett Myers' quality start in his two million dollar left arm. Myers had only permitted three runs to score in his six and two-thirds innings of work, but the baserunner on first base was his responsibility. If David Eckstein came around to score, without the benefit of a fielding malfunction by the Phillies, Myers' dream of a quality start would be dashed. The Phillies had a chance at their second quality start in three games, but only if Eyre held up his end of the bargain.

Eyre fell behind Giles, three balls to only a single strike. Myers watched from the dugout, a mixture of concern and ferocity evident on his chiseled visage. Eyre stared in to the plate for the sign, realizing the significance of the situation. Giles fouled off Eyre's offering, moving the count to three balls, two strikes. Eyre was one pitch away from ensuring the quality start. He reared back and fired. Giles swung through Eyre's high fastball, ending the inning. Myers and the Phillies had their quality start. With the score tied at three, as play entered the bottom of the seventh, nothing that followed could take Myers' quality start away. The performance of the Phillies' relief corps for the remainder of the game, be it beauteous or hideous, would not sully the quality of Myers' performance.

Unfortunately, after a 2008 season in which they typically chose the beauteous option, the 2009 version of the Phils' pen went with hideous again on Saturday night. Ryan Madson, continuing to struggle with command issues, allowed the go-ahead run to San Diego in the top of the eighth inning. However, he appeared to be in position to vulture a win, as Philadelphia went ahead 5-4, in the home half of the inning.

Brad Lidge, who had last blown a save in September of 2007, came on in the ninth to finish off the Padres. He proceeded to give up the tying run, blowing a save opportunity for the first time as a Phillie. With the score tied, the Phillies still would have had a good chance to win in the bottom of the inning. But Lidge continued to struggle, surrending consecutive two-out singles, and a three-run homer. The homer, by Kevin Kouzmanoff, dropped the Phils' WE from 52.5% to 4.1%. Lidge had to blow a save at some point, and it's better that it was in April 2009, than in October 2008. Lidge deserves to be cut some slack, considering the overall success of his time with the Phillies. He was by the CBP fans who cheered him, despite his struggles on Saturday. But for the 2009 Phils to succeed, Lidge and Madson will both need to get their command problems under control. The Romero-less bullpen is much too thin to succeed without them.

The Phillies' offense did enough to win this game, with solo homers by Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, and Raul Ibanez keying the attack. But the Phils had only eight hits, with Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino combining to go 1 for 9 in the top two spots in the order. With more timely hitting from the top of the order, the three homers would likely not all have been of the solo variety. Of course, it's tough for any offense to win, when the pitching allows eight runs.

Chan Ho Park gets the Sunday start in a CBP matinee. Hopefully, that's not a sentence Phillies bloggers will be typing too many times. The pleasant memories of Park's strong Spring Training (25/2 K/BB!) have already begun to evaporate, as he was shelled in his first start that counted. Park, pitching on six days rest, needs a quality start of his own, or he'll take another step towards an exciting opportunity in middle relief. Considering the recent performances of the current Phillies relievers, the offense might need a ten-spot to secure a Sunday victory.

Friday, April 17, 2009

Phils Fall on Kalas Tribute Night

The Phillies had Friday's night game against the Padres under control. Several times. They lead 5-0 after one inning (88.8% Win Expectancy), and 7-1 after four innings (96.1% WE), with ace Cole Hamels on the mound. The Phils had a 7-5 lead after seven (86.0% WE), with Ryan Madson and Brad Lidge rested, and ready to close out the game. But Madson (-.546 WPA) turned the 7-5 advantage into an 8-7 deficit, a deficit from which the Phillies could not recover. The come-from-ahead loss on Harry Kalas Tribute Night dropped the Phils to 4-5.

The night started very well for the Phillies. The team paid tribute to Kalas in a variety of ways. Kalas' autograph was displayed on the field, which has reduced the collectible value of the field, but looks splendid. Kalas' three sons threw out the first pitches, to John Kruk, Mike Schmidt, and Jimmy Rollins, respectively. Schmidt looked like he could be the right-handed bat the club has been looking to acquire. After a moment of silence, Kane Kalas sang the National Anthem, holding the note on the word "free" longer than a typical Scott Eyre appearance. During the anthem, Jimmy Rollins (white loafers) and Chase Utley (blue sportcoat) held some of Kalas' signature apparel. There was no commentary during the top of the first inning, marking the finest performance of Phillies analyst Chris Wheeler's career. Kalas favorite Chase Utley blasted a three-run homer in the bottom of the first, and the Phils jumped to a 5-0 lead after an inning.

Cole Hamels, though his command and velocity were improved from his putrid 2009 debut, surrendered five runs (including three home runs) over six innings. Philadelphia has allowed a universe-leading twenty-three homers this season. Raul Ibanez (3 for 3, triple, two walks, .162 WPA), Chris Coste (2 for 4, two doubles, .90 WPA), and Pedro Feliz (2 for 3, one walk, .38 WPA) lead a fourteen-hit attack, but the Phillies' strong offense failed to outpace their poor pitching. San Diego #2 starter/basketball center Chris Young was roughed up, allowing seven runs, on nine hits and two walks, in three and two-thirds innings. The Padres bullpen, however, held the Phils scoreless on four hits, with closer Heath Bell picking up his sixth save.

The Phillies have spent most of the season coming back from early deficits, but they couldn't hold on tonight, when they finally had an early lead of their own. The Phillies haven't looked anything like the WFC so far. The emotional effects of the past two weeks' events may be a factor, but the Phils need to start picking up some wins now, as their schedule only gets harder.
Brett Myers faces the Padres' Shawn Hill on Saturday night at CBP, as Myers attempts to get the Phils back to .500, as well as to increase the value of his free agent contract.

Thursday, April 16, 2009

Phils Waste First "Quality" Start in Loss to Nats

The Phillies were in good position to sweep the rain-shortened series with the Nationals. They had Joe Blanton on the mound, with his grand total of zero regular-season losses as a Phillie. The Nationals had Shairon Martis starting, with his lifetime FIP of 5.79, and an ERA of 9.00 in one 2009 start. The Phillies had won three straight, while the Nationals (0-7) hadn't won since before the Phillies became WFC. Philadelphia, after two consecutive days off, had a rested, capable bullpen. Washington had a rested bullpen full of household names, such as Hinckley, Shell, and Ledezma. Naturally, the Phillies lost 8-2, dropping their record back to .500 (4-4).

Blanton started brilliantly, retiring the first batter he faced on a groundout. But he couldn't maintain that high level of performance, allowing two singles and a homer (Adam Dunn) to the next three batters. Joe the Lumber continued the 2009 Phillies' tradition of early deficits and generosity with the long ball. Blanton did manage to get through six innings without allowing any additional runs, but he permitted eight hits and a walk, in an uneven outing against a weak lineup. On the plus side, Blanton became the first Phillie to record a "quality start" in 2009. On the minus side, "quality" is defined here as "a level of performance that Julio Santana would be capable of replicating", and Blanton's ERA for the season is now at 9.00.

As play entered the eighth, the Phillies only trailed 4-2, and still had a (14%) chance at the win. Joe Beimel, signed by the Nats in mid-March for $2 million (one year), retired the Phillies in order. Jack Taschner, the 850K reliever acquired by the Phillies for Ronny Paulino (on March 28th), put the game away for the Nats. Taschner allowed four runs on four hits (two HR) and two walks, turning a 4-2 deficit into an 8-2 deficit. Taschner had pitched three scoreless innings in 2009, but he reverted to his 2006 (5.68 FIP), 2007 (4.04), and 2008 form (4.49). Choosing to bring in Taschner over Ryan Madson (or Clay Condrey?) might have been the wrong move tonight. Acquiring Taschner over signing Beimel in March was almost definitely the wrong move.

The Phillies offense was lead by Raul Ibanez (two hits) and Lou Marson (two hits). Chase Utley went 1 for 3, and...that's it. Literally. No one else got a hit. Nineteen at bats, zero hits for the other dudes. The offense really needs to do better than that, especially against the likes of the Washington Nationals. But these types of games will happen over the long season. We'll ignore all those negative WPAs in tonight's box score, and go get 'em tomorrow.

Cole Hamels will face Chris Young (1.94 FIP) and the surprising (7-3) San Diego Padres Friday night. Numerous Harry Kalas tributes are planned, in what should be a memorable occasion. Hopefully, Hamels and the Phillies can come up with a victory on Harry's Night.

Wednesday, April 15, 2009

Phillies Rained Out, Kalas Tributes Continue

Wednesday night's Phillies-Nationals game was postponed due to rain, as baseball fans everywhere continued to pay tribute to former Phillies broadcaster Harry Kalas. The game was not immediately rescheduled. (A glance at the Phillies and Nats respective 2009 schedules doesn't seem to show any concurrent off-days preceding, or following, the remaining Phillies dates at Nationals Park. They may have to schedule a split-admission doubleheader, with Saturday, May 16th looking like the best option. Might be a good day for a Carlos Carrasco or J.A. Happ start...)

Reflection upon the incredible career of Kalas continued Wednesday. Remembrances were shared in the newspapers, as well as throughout the blogosphere. Fans flocked to the Mike Schmidt statue at CBP, leaving flowers and other Kalas mementos. The Phillies organization announced a number of the touching tributes they have planned for Friday night's game, the first at CBP since Kalas' passing. For the remainder of the season, the Phillies players will wear a black "HK" patch on their uniforms, over their hearts. On Friday night, Kalas' sons will throw out the first ball, with his son Kane to sing the National Anthem, after a moment of silence. The Phillies' broadcast booth will been named after Kalas, a billboard honoring Harry will be on the outfield wall, and Harry's signature "Outta Here" call will play over the speakers, accompanying every Phillies home run. Throughout the homestand, the Phillies flag in Ashburn Alley will be at half-mast, a video of Harry singing "High Hopes" will play during the seventh-inning stretch, and Harry's signature will displayed on the field. During the first half-inning of the television broadcast, there will be no commentary. It will be a classy tribute for one of the classiest Phillies of all-time.

As a result of the rain out, the Phillies were unable to take part in MLB's Jackie Robinson celebration, in which all MLB players wear Robinson's number forty-two for the day. (This is a fitting tribute, though it is mildly disconcerting when every Phillies batter comes to the plate wearing Don Carman's (lifetime BA: .057) number.) On April 22nd, 1947, the Phillies played Robinson's Dodgers, and embarrassed MLB with their behavior. April 22nd, 2009, might be a good day for the Phillies to honor Robinson, by wearing his number. Hopefully, the Phillies will find an opportunity to honor Robinson later in the season.

Phillies Manager Charlie Manuel announced that Wednesday night's starter, Joe Blanton, will move back to Thursday night, and that ace Cole Hamels will get the ball on Friday night. It seems appropriate that Hamels will be the starter on the night of the Kalas Tribute. Unfortunately, despite the consecutive days off, the schedule doesn't seem conducive to skipping Chan Ho Park's turn in the rotation. Brett Myers, Park, and Jamie Moyer will, likely, follow Hamels in the series against San Diego, each pitching on six days of rest. (Though the Phillies could use Moyer on Sunday, on five days rest, and Park Monday, on seven days rest, making Park available to be used in relief on Thursday or Friday.)

On Thursday, Joe the Lumber will be opposed by Kingdom of the Netherlands/Nationals starter Shairon Martis. Martis is, perhaps, best-known for his no-hitter against Panama in the 2006 WBC. However, Martis skipped this year's tournament, putting his loyalty for the Nats over that for The Kingdom. The Phillies have been held scoreless (in five and two-thirds innings, by Jair Jurrjens) this season, by MLB pitchers who chose Spring Training with their club, over WBC action for The Kingdom. Expect this streak to end Thursday night.

Tuesday, April 14, 2009

Phils Win One for Harry

The Phillies faced some trying circumstances Monday, as they took on the Nationals. Playing a game less than three hours after the passing of their friend, broadcasting icon Harry Kalas. Facing a Washington team playing their home opener, desperate for a victory after starting the 2009 season with six straight losses. But the Phillies overcame these difficulties, in posting a 9-8 victory. Harry would have been pleased.

Phillies starter Jamie Moyer was largely ineffective, allowing four runs in six innings. He permitted eight hits and two walks, finishing with a WPA of -.100 for the day. Clay Condrey and Brad Lidge each gave up two-run homers. However, the Phillies offense (HRs by Shane Victorino, Ryan Howard, and Raul Ibanez) combined with the Nats defense (three errors, leading to three unearned runs) to give the Phils the win. Howard, Jayson Werth, and Ibanez each had two hits, with Howard (.284) and Pedro Feliz (.168) posting the highest WPAs. The Phillies' victory was almost secondary, considering the tragic events that transpired before the game.

The Phillies broadcasters paid tribute to their fallen colleague throughout the game, as they interspersed play-by-play with Kalas memories and anecdotes. Prior to the game, the Phillies players shared some cigarettes in the dugout, in memory of Kalas' fondness for a post-game (and a pregame, or two) smoke. When Victorino hit his home run, the Phillies' first since Kalas' passing, he pointed to the broadcaster's booth. It was fitting that Jamie Moyer, who grew up listening to Harry, as did so many of us, was the winning pitcher.

Tuesday's WFC visit to the White House has been canceled, so Barack, Bo, and Kumar will have to wait to meet the World Champs. Tuesday will be another day of tributes to Harry Kalas. A day to read other fans' thoughts, to reminisce about our favorite Harry calls, and to watch clips of his greatest moments. Harry had a lifetime of greatest moments. We were all very fortunate to be able to share them with him.

Monday, April 13, 2009

Thank you, Harry.

Harry Kalas, the Voice of the Phillies, passed away today, at the age of seventy-three. Harry had collapsed in the Phillies broadcast booth at 12:30pm, and died at 1:20pm. He had been with the Phillies since 1971.

I've spent my entire life listening to Harry call Phillies games. As a youngster, I listened to him on WCAU 1210 from my radio. Later, I was fortunate enough to be able to watch him broadcast games on cable, MLB.TV, and MLB Extra Innings. He was the voice of my childhood. He was the constant in my life as a Phillies fan.

I'm shocked that he is gone. I'm saddened that I will never hear him call a Phillies game again. I'm disappointed that he didn't get to visit the White House with the WFC. I'm frustrated that we will never be able to celebrate Harry's memorable career with him, in a massive retirement ceremony at CBP.

But I feel privileged to have been able to hear him on thousands of Phillies broadcasts. I feel honored to have heard him voice so many great moments in Phillies history. Mike Schmidt's 500th home run. The great teams of the 70s. 1983. 1993. I'm glad that he got to enjoy the 1980 and 2008 World Championship seasons. I'm pleased that he was able to take part in the WFC Parade, and the WFC Ring Ceremony. And I'm happy that he is reunited with Whitey now.

Thanks for everything, Harry. YOU are the man.

Sunday, April 12, 2009

Back to .500

The Phillies have spent most of the 2009 season under .500 in overall record, and most of their games under the .500 mark in Win Expectancy. Consistently poor starting pitching can have that effect. But the Phillies rode their strong bullpen, and a pair of late-inning homers, to escape a 3rd inning WE of .108 (10.8%) in Sunday's 7-5 rubber game victory in Colorado. The Phillies have won consecutive games for the first time this season, reaching the .500 mark (3-3) for the first time.

Trailing 4-0 after the first inning, and 5-1 after three innings, Philadelphia pulled to within 5-3 after seven innings. Chase Utley (.348 WPA) tied the game in the 8th, with a two-run homer off Colorado setup man Manny Corpas, and pinch-hitter Matt Stairs (.245 WPA) gave the Phillies the lead with a two-run blast in the ninth off Rockies closer Huston Street. (Stairs' homer was the 255th of his career, second most among Canadian-born MLBers, and most among MLBers who have played for ten or more teams.) The Phillies bullpen combined for five and two-thirds scoreless innings, allowing only two hits and two walks, contributing a total WPA of .328. Brad Lidge picked up his second save of the year, and his forty-third save in forty-three regular season save opportunities as a Phillie.

Today's Phillies comeback would not have been possible (or necessary), were it not for Chan Ho Park's ineffective start. Park was horrendous, allowing five runs on seven hits and three walks, surviving only three and one-third innings. Park threw ninety-six pitches, fifty-five for strikes, and recorded only two strikeouts. DFA'd Villain/Baltimore Oriole Adam Eaton could have put up those type of numbers. (Actually, Eaton pitched against the Rays in Baltimore today, and allowed "only" four runs in four innings.) The early innings were played in a steady rain, and it seemed Park's best chance to avoid his first loss as a Phillie was a rain out. (A rain delay may also have given Park the opportunity to better Eaton's performance with the Rockies grounds crew on July 8, 2007, which may have been the $25 million free agent's greatest Phillies moment.) Despite Park's difficulties Sunday, he did face a tough lineup, under difficult weather (and altitude) conditions, and with the backup catcher (Chris Coste, subbing for DL'd starter Carlos Ruiz) behind the plate. It's too soon for the Phillies swap roles between Park and J.A. Happ. Perhaps after three Park starts...

Philadelphia will travel cross-country to play in the Nationals' home opener Monday afternoon. The Nationals are winless in their six games this season, but Nats slugger Adam Dunn believes all the team needs to do is improve their pitching and batting. Jamie Moyer gets the start, pursuing his first win of the season, and his two-hundred and forty-seventh career win. He will be opposed by Daniel Cabrera, who leads Nationals starting pitchers with forty-eight career wins. It should be a good opportunity for the Phillies to get their season record over .500, and to spend a game with their WE over .500.

Rise of the Slumbering Maple

The Phillies finally displayed some of the capabilities of their offense in an 8-4 win over Colorado on Saturday. The Phillies' fifteen-hit attack was supported by a strong perfomance by the bullpen (scoreless frames from Madson and Lidge) and an adequate start from Brett Myers. In improving their record to 2-3, Philadelphia had at least one hit from every spot in the batting order, except for the ninth.

The Phillies' offense had five players (Ryan Howard, Shane Victorino, Raul Ibanez, Pedro Feliz, and Chase Utley) with at least two hits, and scored seven two-out runs. Ibanez hit his second home run of the year, one of the Phillies' five extra-base hits. The Phillies left twelve runners on base in the game. (Concerned about all those LOB's? Perhaps you shouldn't be overly concerned. All those LOBs means the Phils had many baserunners. Over a long season, many baserunners will likely lead to many runs and many wins. For example, the 1976 Reds had a record 1328 LOBs (an average of 8.2 LOB/game). The Big Red Machine also averaged a league-leading 5.29 runs/game, in finishing the regular season with a .630 winning percentage and a World Championship.)

Brett Myers showed improved velocity and command during his seven-inning, four-run outing. He had six strikeouts to only one walk. He only allowed four hits, but all were for extra bases, including three homers. This increased his MLB-leading total to six home runs allowed. Bad luck? Maybe. Or it could be his propensity to throw a handful pitches with mid-80s velocity over the middle of the plate during each start. If he continues this pace, and makes thirty-five starts, he'll allow one hundred and five home runs, and break Cooperstown-deserving Bert Blyleven's MLB record of fifty in a season. Myers probably won't make it that far, however, as he'll be likely be invited to take J.A. Happ's spot in the bullpen, if he continues to be taken deep with such frequency. (On the plus side, a disgruntled Myers would make the MLBN reality show on the Phillies bullpen even more entertaining...)

Chan Ho Park will make his first start for the Phillies in Sunday's rubber game in Colorado. Park chose club over country earlier this year, as he opted to join the Phillies in Clearwater, rather than join South Korea in the WBC. (Would Park have been able to prevent South Korea's Championship game loss to Japan? We will never know. But my guess is "no.") He won the competition for the fifth spot in the rotation over J.A. Happ with a strong spring (2.53 ERA, 25/2 K/BB). He had a strong season as a starter as recently as 2001. This replacement-level blogger is not overly optimistic about Park. But, as a Phillies fan, he has my support, and for his WBC Sacrifice, Park has my appreciation.

Friday, April 10, 2009

Cole Loves the Nightlife

It's still too soon to hit the panic button. But Friday's 10-3 loss to Colorado dropped the Phillies to 1-3 on the season, with their sole victory by virtue of a Braves bullpen implosion. Cole Hamels' season debut may have been the worst start of his career, as he permitted seven runs on eleven hits in three and two-thirds shaky innings, for a -.415 WPA. The Phillies need Hamels to put up Hamels numbers, not Adam Eaton numbers, if they expect to contend for a playoff spot.

Hamels' velocity was down, as his fastball sat mostly in the mid-80's, rather than low-90's. Hamels, though, indicated that he felt poor command was behind his lackluster performance. For someone used to winning Connect Four in three moves, such a lack of success is unusual. But poor starts in day games are not unusual for Hamels. His day/night splits are worthy of note, particularly the difference in K/BB rates, though the difference in BABIPs may explain some of his daytime issues. As Hamels typically spends his early mornings answering God's prayers, as well as giving Chuck Norris self-defense lessons, the Phillies should probably consider using Hamels in night games, whenever possible. Hamels' next start is scheduled for Thursday night against the Nationals. Hopefully, his command and velocity will be improved.

While the Phillies' consistently poor starting pitching has been the main culprit, the feeble bats haven't helped. Jimmy Rollins (.269 OPS) and Shane Victorino (.544), both of whom represented the USA in the WBC, have struggled. The lack of preseason ABs each received, as a result of the WBC, may be a factor in their slow starts. Or, perhaps, we shouldn't be too concerned, as neither has even had twenty ABs yet. All that's certain here, is that the USA needs to play more Spring Training games during the WBC, and that the WBC is way too Classic to be contested only once every four years.

The Phillies face the Rockies again Saturday night, with Contract Year Brett Myers taking his trim frame to the hill. Jorge de la Rosa takes the mound for Colorado, hoping to improve upon the last time he faced Philadelphia. On May 26, 2008, de la Rosa gave up six earned runs (in only three and a third innings), as the Phillies won 20-5. The Phillies are due to put up another twenty spot.

Wednesday, April 8, 2009

Great Moments in Win Probability

.7%. The probability that Pat Burrell wasn't trying to hold back tears during the Ring Ceremony. The probability that someone other than Harry Kalas could pull off the outfit that the Voice of the Phillies was sporting during the ceremony. The probability that the Phillies would come back from a 10-3 deficit with one out in the bottom of the 7th against the Braves this afternoon.

As the Atlanta bullpen prepared to close out the series sweep, disappointed fans began to exit CBP. The internets were also rife with frustrated Phillies fans. This replacement level blogger was preparing to write that even the best teams will have three-game segments over the long season in which they lose all three games. (The 2008 Phillies had eleven such three-game segments.)

After Braves reliever Eric O'Flaherty retired Shane Victorino to start the 7th, Atlanta began to experience some bullpen issues. Single. HBP. Pitching change. BB. Single. Single. BB. Pitching change. BB. BB. Pitching change. Single. BB. Groundout. Ten consecutive Phillies reached base, turning a 10-3 deficit into an 11-10 lead. The probability of a Phillies win had increased from .7% to 79.2%. After Ryan Madson retired the Braves in order in the 8th, the Phillies picked up an insurance run. Phillies closer Brad Lidge permitted a solo homer in the 9th, but picked up the save in the Phillies' first 2009 win. Phillies starter Joe Blanton was off the hook for his four inning, seven earned run, -.470 WPA performance, thanks to Chase Utley (2 for 4, .230 WPA), Raul Ibanez (2 for 3, 2 BB, 1 HR, .208 WPA), and a disastrous showing by the Braves relief corps.

The memorable afternoon had begun with the distribution of the World Series rings. The rings made their way to the field in a Citizens Bank van, with a police motorcycle escort. Each of the 2008 Phillies was given, in words spoken by Harry the K, a "priceless artifact that cannot be purchased, only earned." The 3.84 karat rings were a "gleaming testimony to the Phillies' remarkable achievements of last Fall." Geoff Jenkins and Pat Burrell were in attendance, with Burrell appearing less than five hours before his game in Boston tonight. Inexplicably, Adam Eaton also appeared, and was showered with raucous boos. (Eaton's 5.97 FIP of 2007, and 5.29 FIP of 2008 were not forgotten.) Sadly, So Taguchi (Iowa Cubs) and Rudy Seanez (Stone Cold Creamery) were unable to attend, due to other obligations. The Game Five lineup was introduced, in reverse order, to receive their "priceless artifacts", as the capacity crowd exploded. It was fortunate that Burrell was able to attend, as it wouldn't have been the same without him. Eaton, though, really should have stayed in Baltimore.

The Phillies travel to Colorado, where Cole Hamels will make his 2009 debut Friday afternoon. Hamels faces Jason Marquis (4.61 FIP in 2008), as the Phils attempt to even their record. The day off should be spent in reflection of a truly memorable day in the Phillies' history, as well as in the history of Win Probability. It is suggested that you begin your reflection with the timeless and elegant beauty displayed here.

Tuesday, April 7, 2009

Phils lose second game, but still have 160 left...

Cole Hamels refers to it as "the bandwagon of freaking out." Even after two almost-lifeless losses, it is still way too soon to jump on that bandwagon. The Phillies lost the second game of their season, 4-0, to the Atlanta Braves tonight, dropping to 0-2. They also started 0-2 in 2008, and we all know how that turned out. (WFC!)

Phils starter Jamie Moyer surrendered a home run to Braves 2B Kelly Johnson on his first pitch of the season, and permitted four runs over five innings in a mediocre performance. The Phils offense continued to struggle, with only six hits, one for extra bases (a double by Raul Ibanez).
Kingdom of The Netherlands native Jair Jurrjens pitched well for the Braves, making his decision to skip the WBC, in order to focus on the 2009 season, seem prudent. (Note: The "C" in "WBC" stands for "Classic", which it most certainly was.) The Phillies left eleven men on base, and had several potential extra-base hits turned into outs by the heavy wind. It was a rough night, but Moyer and the Phils are bound to improve. Bill James, Marcel the Monkey, and The Laws of Probability are all in agreement on this. (Moyer certainly left himself plenty of room for improvement, with a 7.20 ERA and 2.00 WHIP after his 2009 debut.)

There were some positives. Charlie Manuel batted Jayson Werth between Ryan Howard and Raul Ibanez, breaking up the lefties in the order. (Apparently, Charles Fuqua had been traversing the blogosphere, prior to filling out his lineup card.) Howard and Chase Utley each had a pair of singles. Ibanez gunned down a runner at the plate. The Phillies bullpen threw another four scoreless, hitless innings, and has not allowed a baserunner in seven innings. Jack Taschner threw a pair of scoreless frames, continuing his bid to stay on the roster, and appear in The MLB Network's reality show. Chan Ho Park threw a scoreless inning, as he did his between-starts side session throwing to live batters. (Rather innovative, Charlie!) Park is still slated to make his first start on Sunday. Clay Condrey struck out two Braves in the 9th, and 25th man Miguel Cairo used his elite pinch-hitting skills to coax an error out of Kelly Johnson on a routine ground ball.

The Phillies will attempt to pick up their first win Wednesday afternoon, as Joe the Lumber matches up against Javier Vazquez. The WFC will also receive their World Series Championship rings in a pregame ceremony. The ceremony will be streamed live on phillies.com at 2:15pm, so tune in! Pat Burrell will be there, but I suspect that the Phils will go ahead and just mail Adam Eaton's ring to Baltimore. Burrell's bulldog, Elvis, was more instrumental in the WFC than Eaton.

Monday, April 6, 2009

Phils Lose Opener, 4-1

Those gold-tinged uniforms are to blame for the Phillies' 4-1 Opening Night loss to Atlanta. The Baseball Gods do not look kindly upon hubris and/or unbalanced lineups, and have been known to smite those who transgress with unsightly BABIPs. Of course, a superb performance by Braves starter Derek Lowe may also have been a factor in the Phillies' loss.

Lowe held the Phils to only a pair of hits over eight scoreless innings. The Phillies showed some life in the bottom of the ninth, bringing the tying run to the plate against Braves closer Mike Gonzalez. But the southpaw closer herked-and-jerked his way through the lefty-friendly heart of the Phillies order, retiring Ryan Howard and Raul Ibanez on strikes to end the threat. (Ibanez did have an .866 OPS against LHP in 2008, but, if you happen to be one of those people who think 1270 ABs is a better sample size than 197 ABs, his lifetime OPS against LHP is only .733. Howard has now managed 288 K's in 713 AB against LHP, which is depressingly impressive.)
The Phillies' 3-7 hitters went a combined 0 for 17 on the night, which is not exactly a recipe for success. At least not in games not started by Cole Hamels.

Contract-Year Brett Myers' performance was almost a microcosm of last season. He started the defense of his 2008 Most HR Allowed in the First Inning Title by allowing a HR to Braves C Brian McCann in the opening frame. The now-lean Myers struggled with his command and velocity, and didn't seem to trust the game plan for facing the Braves' bats, shaking off C Carlos Ruiz' pitch calls numerous times early in the game. In the second inning, Myers allowed another HR, to Braves OF Jeff Francoeur. (If you missed the game, Francoeur has a new batting stance this season. However, if you tuned into the ESPN broadcast, at any point in the game, for more than four seconds, you are likely aware.)
Also in the second inning, Atlanta rookie OF Jordan Schafer homered in his first MLB AB, joining Phillies greats Bill Duggleby, Ed Sanicki, and Ricky Jordan in the exclusive club. (ESPN announcer Jon Miller celebrated Schafer's accomplishment by referring to him as "Logan" Schafer throughout the night.)
After the inning, and, possibly, threats of an encore of his 2008 AAA Excursion, Myers settled down, holding the Braves scoreless for the next four innings. But the Phillies' absent offense was unable to make up the early 4-1 deficit.

New Phillies reliever Jack Taschner made his long-awaited regular season debut for the club in the seventh. While Taschner's community service stats are quite impressive, his lifetime 4.26 FIP is somewhat less so. Taschner did well, pitching a scoreless, hitless inning. Taschner has had some difficulties when facing right-handed and left-handed batters throughout his career, but if he could just get a handle on those issues, he might stick around long enough to appear in the reality show on the Phillies' bullpen. He probably should wait a bit before springing for some new outfits, though.

Philadelphia will send Jamie Moyer to the mound Tuesday night, as they attempt to pick up their first 2009 win, as well as improve their .129 team batting average. When the Phillies win the final 2009 game that counts (the final World Series game, if that wasn't clear), Opening Night will be forgotten. Except, maybe, as an anecdote in "Logan" Schafer's Cooperstown speech.