Some Phillies-related news/links:
ESPN's Buster Olney reported that the Phillies had held "internal discussions" about acquiring Albert Pujols, in exchange for a package including Ryan Howard.
The Phillies have also held "internal discussions" about acquiring Matt Wieters, Ryan Zimmerman, Aroldis Chapman, both Jonas Brothers, both Sedin Brothers, Antero Niittymaki, and Sinbad.
Pujols would a great fit for the Phillies' lineup (or any lineup, ever), but St.Louis doesn't seem likely to deal Pujols. The Phils should, instead, set their sights on Sinbad, whom could likely be acquired for minor leaguer Tyson Brummett + cash.
Starting 3B Placido Polanco left Monday's game with a right knee injury, but he is expected to return to the lineup this weekend.
Watching an injured Polanco limp off the field was rather sobering. In a long-term injury scenario, Polanco's likely replacement at 3B would be Greg Dobbs, with Cody Ransom in reserve. While it is a relief that the name "Eric Bruntlett" was not used in the previous sentence, Dobbs and Ransom don't exactly inspire confidence. Hopefully, the good fortune the Phils have had in recent years, with respect to their frontline players, will continue.
Cole Hamels threw five innings in his third consecutive strong Spring start on Tuesday, allowing only an unearned run against Detroit.
Hamels' line so far in March: 10.2 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 9 K. Even more importantly, he threw ten cutters and nine curve balls. If Hamels can add some diversity to his fastball/change-heavy repertoire of previous seasons, Roy Halladay won't be the only Ace in the Phils' rotation.
Roy Halladay's numbers after three Spring starts: 10 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 14 K.
Halladay has looked outstanding, so far this spring. As if his on-field performance wasn't enough, he has mentored a rejuvenated Kyle Kendrick, as well as contributing to the rejuvenation of the Philly real estate market. The $2.3 MM mansion isn't located far from Cole Hamels' home, so Halladay will be available to counsel Hamels, whenever any high BABIP-related meltdowns occur.
In the competition for the fifth spot in the rotation, Kyle Kendrick has thrown nine scoreless frames, over three appearances. Jamie Moyer has been bombed in "B" games, while Drew Carpenter and Ryan Vogelsong have been sent to minor league camp.
Kendrick hasn't allowed a walk this spring, but he has only recorded two strikeouts, which is not a great sign. The competition has always been between Kendrick and Moyer, and is still weeks away from being decided.
Domonic Brown hit a pair of homers on Tuesday, improving his slash line to .417/.464/.750. For his efforts, Brown was sent to the minor league camp.
If the Phillies lose a starting outfielder to injury in 2010, it is good to know that they have a viable replacement: Ben Francisco. Brown is best-served with a full season of ABs at the AAA level, rather than sitting on the bench in Philly. In 2011, possibly depending on whether the Phils retain Jayson Werth, Brown could be an everyday MLBer/RoY candidate.
The Phillies' Minor League Spring Training teams can be followed this month, on the internets.
I, typically, complement my regular-season viewing of Phillies' games, with the internet radio broadcasts of the IronPigs and/or RPhils. However, I don't recall ML Spring Training info being so readily accessible in the past.
Lehigh Valley IronPigs (AAA)
Reading Phillies (AA)
Lakewood BlueClaws (A-)
In a bracket tournament of considerably more importance than that college basketball one, the Titans of the Phillies' Blogosphere are battling for bragging rights at The Phield.
Each morning at 8am, a matchup will be announced, with e-mailed votes accepted until 8pm.
This is a good opportunity to make certain that you are following all of the top Phillies' blogs, and also to discover blogs you haven't been reading. My personal favorite Phillies' blogs, The Zo Zone, Beerleaguer, The Good Phight, and Crashburn Alley all have reasonably good shots at achieving greatness.
Tuesday, March 16, 2010
Sunday, March 14, 2010
2010 Season in Review
(The following is an excerpt from Baseball Prospectus 2011, and may contain spoilers.)
Prior to the 21st Century, the Philadelphia Phillies were rarely considered a model franchise. Rarely lucky or good, the embattled ballclub limped through the years, their record oft-charred by crippling injuries and questionable personnel decisions. With the exception of a few staggered oases (1915, 1950, 1980, 1983, and 1993), the name "Phillies" was synonymous with mediocrity, or worse. Often, much, much worse. The Phillies became the first MLB team to lose 10,000 games, a testament to their longevity as a franchise, as well as to their sustained impotence between the lines.
Things have gone a bit better for the Phils, in the current millennium. Actually, that is an understatement of similar magnitude to statements such as "Roy Halladay is a workhorse.", or "Placido Polanco has a sizeable melon." In making their third consecutive World Series appearance, and winning their second World Championship of the Century, the 2010 Phillies were certainly the greatest edition in the team's history. The 102 regular-season wins posted by the club still left the franchise 1087 games below .500 for their history, but this now-model franchise appears to mere decades away from a lifetime winning record. The only burning question is how they are going to able to afford to continue to roster so many superstars.
The success of the 2010 Phillies has to be, mostly, attributed to their outstanding starting pitching. Acquiring Roy Halladay was expensive, both in terms of salary, and players. The 2010 Cy Young award winner was worth every penny, and every promising prospect. Besides posting one of the best statistical seasons in baseball history, the tireless ace set the standard for MLB's best rotation. The sturdy staff had four hurlers exceed 200 IP, completing an impressive thirty-two games. Trusting in the NL's best defense, the starters were able to go deep into games, while still keeping their pitch counts manageable. Cole Hamels was the same ace he has been his entire career, without the BABIP issues that had plagued his 2009 season. Joe Blanton continued his evolution from proclaimed innings-eater, to actual, quality innings-eater. J.A. Happ continued to bend BABIP to his will, prompting sabermetricians to question whether the southpaw was simply a two-season outlier, or whether a deeper magic was in play. Kyle Kendrick took over the fifth spot in May, replacing veteran Jamie Moyer. Kendrick held the fort at the back of the rotation, until the Phils' second annual acquisition of Cliff Lee further solidified the starting pitching. Hamels and Lee combined to split the six postseason victories not claimed by Halladay.
The health and performance of the starting pitchers also had a beneficial effect on the bullpen. Closer Brad Lidge flourished with a reduced workload, rarely being required to pitch in consecutive games. The Phils' offseason signings of well-traveled vets Jose Contreras and Danys Baez had appeared somewhat questionable at the time, but they demonstrated the club's wisdom in roster construction, performing well in their middle relief roles. Holdovers Ryan Madson and Chad Durbin had career years, excelling as Lidge's setup men. Only reliever J.C. Romero struggled, as injury and legal woes continued to derail his career.
While the pitching gets most of the credit for the Phillies' success, perhaps deservingly so, the club's position players also were quite deserving of merit. Chase Utley's MVP season, Ryan Howard's 52 HRs, and Bearded Jayson Werth's contract year performance keyed the offense. Shane Victorino was second to only Werth among NL outfielders, in launching 31 HRs. While Victorino's sudden power surge was as shocking as his uncanny ability to design and sell $40 t-shirts, he certainly wasn't the Phillies biggest surprise in 2010.
Brian Bocock entered Spring Training hoping to claim a roster spot with the Lehigh Valley IronPigs (AAA). By the time the regular season began, Bocock had, in fact claimed a roster spot. As the parent club's starting shortstop. Jimmy Rollins, the 2007 NL MVP, was relegated to the utility role that had seemed destined for light-hitting Juan Castro. Bocock's numbers at the plate were less reminiscent of Rollins, and more reminiscent of former Phils neophyte Joe Millette. However, Bocock also posted one of the greatest defensive seasons in the game's history, a UZR-heavy 9.2 WAR, and a third place finish in the NL Gold Glove voting. Rollins, dealt to Boston on May 11, did win a Gold Glove. But the Phillies' enlightened decision to install Bocock as the starter early in the season allowed them to maximize their return for Rollins, as well as to free up the payroll that, later, allowed them to fit Lee into their $140MM budget.
(BP2011 will be available in January 2011, wherever fine books are sold.)
Prior to the 21st Century, the Philadelphia Phillies were rarely considered a model franchise. Rarely lucky or good, the embattled ballclub limped through the years, their record oft-charred by crippling injuries and questionable personnel decisions. With the exception of a few staggered oases (1915, 1950, 1980, 1983, and 1993), the name "Phillies" was synonymous with mediocrity, or worse. Often, much, much worse. The Phillies became the first MLB team to lose 10,000 games, a testament to their longevity as a franchise, as well as to their sustained impotence between the lines.
Things have gone a bit better for the Phils, in the current millennium. Actually, that is an understatement of similar magnitude to statements such as "Roy Halladay is a workhorse.", or "Placido Polanco has a sizeable melon." In making their third consecutive World Series appearance, and winning their second World Championship of the Century, the 2010 Phillies were certainly the greatest edition in the team's history. The 102 regular-season wins posted by the club still left the franchise 1087 games below .500 for their history, but this now-model franchise appears to mere decades away from a lifetime winning record. The only burning question is how they are going to able to afford to continue to roster so many superstars.
The success of the 2010 Phillies has to be, mostly, attributed to their outstanding starting pitching. Acquiring Roy Halladay was expensive, both in terms of salary, and players. The 2010 Cy Young award winner was worth every penny, and every promising prospect. Besides posting one of the best statistical seasons in baseball history, the tireless ace set the standard for MLB's best rotation. The sturdy staff had four hurlers exceed 200 IP, completing an impressive thirty-two games. Trusting in the NL's best defense, the starters were able to go deep into games, while still keeping their pitch counts manageable. Cole Hamels was the same ace he has been his entire career, without the BABIP issues that had plagued his 2009 season. Joe Blanton continued his evolution from proclaimed innings-eater, to actual, quality innings-eater. J.A. Happ continued to bend BABIP to his will, prompting sabermetricians to question whether the southpaw was simply a two-season outlier, or whether a deeper magic was in play. Kyle Kendrick took over the fifth spot in May, replacing veteran Jamie Moyer. Kendrick held the fort at the back of the rotation, until the Phils' second annual acquisition of Cliff Lee further solidified the starting pitching. Hamels and Lee combined to split the six postseason victories not claimed by Halladay.
The health and performance of the starting pitchers also had a beneficial effect on the bullpen. Closer Brad Lidge flourished with a reduced workload, rarely being required to pitch in consecutive games. The Phils' offseason signings of well-traveled vets Jose Contreras and Danys Baez had appeared somewhat questionable at the time, but they demonstrated the club's wisdom in roster construction, performing well in their middle relief roles. Holdovers Ryan Madson and Chad Durbin had career years, excelling as Lidge's setup men. Only reliever J.C. Romero struggled, as injury and legal woes continued to derail his career.
While the pitching gets most of the credit for the Phillies' success, perhaps deservingly so, the club's position players also were quite deserving of merit. Chase Utley's MVP season, Ryan Howard's 52 HRs, and Bearded Jayson Werth's contract year performance keyed the offense. Shane Victorino was second to only Werth among NL outfielders, in launching 31 HRs. While Victorino's sudden power surge was as shocking as his uncanny ability to design and sell $40 t-shirts, he certainly wasn't the Phillies biggest surprise in 2010.
Brian Bocock entered Spring Training hoping to claim a roster spot with the Lehigh Valley IronPigs (AAA). By the time the regular season began, Bocock had, in fact claimed a roster spot. As the parent club's starting shortstop. Jimmy Rollins, the 2007 NL MVP, was relegated to the utility role that had seemed destined for light-hitting Juan Castro. Bocock's numbers at the plate were less reminiscent of Rollins, and more reminiscent of former Phils neophyte Joe Millette. However, Bocock also posted one of the greatest defensive seasons in the game's history, a UZR-heavy 9.2 WAR, and a third place finish in the NL Gold Glove voting. Rollins, dealt to Boston on May 11, did win a Gold Glove. But the Phillies' enlightened decision to install Bocock as the starter early in the season allowed them to maximize their return for Rollins, as well as to free up the payroll that, later, allowed them to fit Lee into their $140MM budget.
(BP2011 will be available in January 2011, wherever fine books are sold.)
Sunday, March 7, 2010
Halladay Music
One of the most prominent Spring Training storylines has been All Things Roy Halladay. We have learned of his intense desire to perform in the postseason. We have noted the relationship between his levels of facial hair, and his wOBA against (a bearded Halladay is a dominant Halladay). The effect Halladay has had on his teammates, particularly his apprentice (Kyle Kendrick), is much more difficult to quantify, but certainly beneficial. The indomitable northpaw's first game action as a Phillie included three non-strikes, among his twenty-four offerings. However, he will, undoubtedly, improve upon those numbers, as the season progresses. (Besides, it's not like he gave up any runs, or hits, or anything like that.) There has been a veritable multitude of words spent on Halladay-related topics since his acquistion, yet there is one specific area that has not yet been suitably explored.
Since the Dawn of Sabermetrics, the factors that influence a pitcher's success (or failure) have been studied intensely. The areas that a pitcher has control over (whiffs, walks, and facial hair)
have proven to be the best predictors of success. BABIP and HR/FB provide clues as to the sustainability of a pitcher's performance. A pitcher's Entrance Music appears to have a discernible effect on opposing batters, but the study of this particular phenomenon is still in it's infancy. While determining the specific impact of an intimidating entrance song is, currently, an imprecise science, partially as a result of imperfect information and insufficient sample sizes, few question that such an impact exists.
Roy Halladay suffered from the adverse effects of a replacement level entrance song, during his time in Toronto. Robert Palmer's "Bad Case of Loving You (Doctor, Doctor)" is not a worthy choice for a perennial Cy Young candidate, especially one performing for a perennial World Series contender. There are numerous alternatives that can be utilized here, some including Halladay's nickname ("Doc"), and same playing on his surname. Making the assumption that the entrance song will only be played during home games, we can adjust for CBP's affect on Halladay's ERA. Assuming eighteen home starts, and optimal facial hair levels, we can use a proprietary formula to project Halladay's ERA with each of the potential entrance songs considered.
Dizzee Rascal, "Holiday"
Pertinent lyrics: "If you ain't doing nothing, let's fly away, drive away, take a holiday."
Commentary: This option could get the CBP crowd revved up, but won't intimidate many opposing batters.
Projected ERA: 3.19
Thompson Twins, "Doctor, Doctor"
Pertinent lyrics: "Doctor, Doctor, can't you see I'm burning, burning? Oh Doctor, Doctor, is this love I'm feeling?"
Commentary: Pete Alexander who have struggled to keep his ERA under 3, with this entrance song.
Projected ERA: 3.43
Green Day, "Holiday"
Pertinent Lyrics: "I beg to dream and differ from the hollow lies, This is the dawning of the rest of our lives, On Holiday!
Commentary: A worthy choice, but not sufficiently intimidating.
Projected ERA: 2.86
The Dandy Warhols, "Every Day Should Be a Holiday"
Pertinent Lyrics: "Anytime, Baby let's go, Every day should be a holiday"
Commentary: Perhaps a bit dated, but a decent choice.
Projected ERA: 3.06
Lindsey Buckingham, "Holiday Road"
Pertinent Lyrics: "I found out long ago, It's a long way down this holiday road."
Commentary: Reminiscent of the movie "Vacation." About as intimidating as Marty Moose.
Projected ERA: 3.38
Motley Crue, "Dr. Feelgood"
Pertinent Lyrics: "He's the one they call Dr. Feelgood, He's the one that makes you feel alright."
Commentary: Would not be an appropriate choice for Roy Halladay.
Projected ERA: N/A
The Dead Kennedys, "Holiday in Cambodia"
Commentary: Much less appropriate than the previous option.
Projected ERA: N/A
UFO, "Doctor, Doctor"
Pertinent Lyrics: "Doctor, Doctor please, oh the mess I'm in"
Commentary: Halladay does not get into messes, nor is he a "nervous boy."
Projected ERA: 3.28
Scorpions, "Holiday"
Pertinent Lyrics: "Let me take you far away, You'd like a holiday."
Commentary: Too slow-paced, troublesome German-accented vocals.
Projected ERA: 3.34
Pantera, "Psycho Holiday"
Pertinent Lyrics: "Been put through the test, your mind laid to rest, you're on a psycho holiday."
Commentary: This appears to be the optimal entrance song.
Projected ERA: 2.34
While there are other possibilities that have yet to be examined, the projected ERA (2.34) produced by Pantera's "Psycho Holiday" appears rather difficult to beat. This is not surprising, as even Adam Eaton could (likely) produce a sub-6.00 ERA, with a Pantera entrance song. Hopefully, the statistical consultants employed by the Phillies organization will come to a similar, or superior, conclusion.
Since the Dawn of Sabermetrics, the factors that influence a pitcher's success (or failure) have been studied intensely. The areas that a pitcher has control over (whiffs, walks, and facial hair)
have proven to be the best predictors of success. BABIP and HR/FB provide clues as to the sustainability of a pitcher's performance. A pitcher's Entrance Music appears to have a discernible effect on opposing batters, but the study of this particular phenomenon is still in it's infancy. While determining the specific impact of an intimidating entrance song is, currently, an imprecise science, partially as a result of imperfect information and insufficient sample sizes, few question that such an impact exists.
Roy Halladay suffered from the adverse effects of a replacement level entrance song, during his time in Toronto. Robert Palmer's "Bad Case of Loving You (Doctor, Doctor)" is not a worthy choice for a perennial Cy Young candidate, especially one performing for a perennial World Series contender. There are numerous alternatives that can be utilized here, some including Halladay's nickname ("Doc"), and same playing on his surname. Making the assumption that the entrance song will only be played during home games, we can adjust for CBP's affect on Halladay's ERA. Assuming eighteen home starts, and optimal facial hair levels, we can use a proprietary formula to project Halladay's ERA with each of the potential entrance songs considered.
Dizzee Rascal, "Holiday"
Pertinent lyrics: "If you ain't doing nothing, let's fly away, drive away, take a holiday."
Commentary: This option could get the CBP crowd revved up, but won't intimidate many opposing batters.
Projected ERA: 3.19
Thompson Twins, "Doctor, Doctor"
Pertinent lyrics: "Doctor, Doctor, can't you see I'm burning, burning? Oh Doctor, Doctor, is this love I'm feeling?"
Commentary: Pete Alexander who have struggled to keep his ERA under 3, with this entrance song.
Projected ERA: 3.43
Green Day, "Holiday"
Pertinent Lyrics: "I beg to dream and differ from the hollow lies, This is the dawning of the rest of our lives, On Holiday!
Commentary: A worthy choice, but not sufficiently intimidating.
Projected ERA: 2.86
The Dandy Warhols, "Every Day Should Be a Holiday"
Pertinent Lyrics: "Anytime, Baby let's go, Every day should be a holiday"
Commentary: Perhaps a bit dated, but a decent choice.
Projected ERA: 3.06
Lindsey Buckingham, "Holiday Road"
Pertinent Lyrics: "I found out long ago, It's a long way down this holiday road."
Commentary: Reminiscent of the movie "Vacation." About as intimidating as Marty Moose.
Projected ERA: 3.38
Motley Crue, "Dr. Feelgood"
Pertinent Lyrics: "He's the one they call Dr. Feelgood, He's the one that makes you feel alright."
Commentary: Would not be an appropriate choice for Roy Halladay.
Projected ERA: N/A
The Dead Kennedys, "Holiday in Cambodia"
Commentary: Much less appropriate than the previous option.
Projected ERA: N/A
UFO, "Doctor, Doctor"
Pertinent Lyrics: "Doctor, Doctor please, oh the mess I'm in"
Commentary: Halladay does not get into messes, nor is he a "nervous boy."
Projected ERA: 3.28
Scorpions, "Holiday"
Pertinent Lyrics: "Let me take you far away, You'd like a holiday."
Commentary: Too slow-paced, troublesome German-accented vocals.
Projected ERA: 3.34
Pantera, "Psycho Holiday"
Pertinent Lyrics: "Been put through the test, your mind laid to rest, you're on a psycho holiday."
Commentary: This appears to be the optimal entrance song.
Projected ERA: 2.34
While there are other possibilities that have yet to be examined, the projected ERA (2.34) produced by Pantera's "Psycho Holiday" appears rather difficult to beat. This is not surprising, as even Adam Eaton could (likely) produce a sub-6.00 ERA, with a Pantera entrance song. Hopefully, the statistical consultants employed by the Phillies organization will come to a similar, or superior, conclusion.
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