Tyler Walker's pitch was as wild as it was unhittable, bouncing away from Phillies' catcher Carlos Ruiz. San Francisco's Eugenio Velez offered at the pitch, for a third strike, but the speedy Giant easily reached first base, before Ruiz could retrieve the wayward ball. With that display of shoddy command, history was now within the grasp of the journeyman northpaw. Walker had retired three San Francisco Giants on strikes in the frame, and would have the opportunity to record four strikeouts in a single inning. Walker could become the first Phillie in the History of Philliedom to achieve such a feat. Unfortunately, shortstop Jimmy Rollins cost Walker his chance at immortality, by catching Pablo Sandoval's liner for the final out. With the Phillies trailing 7-2, and only a single inning to recover from a Win Expectancy of .5%, Rollins should have let the ball fall for a single. Walker could have had another chance at fame, a story to tell his Lehigh Valley teammates next week, and the Phillies would have been able to salvage something from a disappointing loss. Alas, it was not to be.
Rodrigo Lopez struggled, in what was likely his last start for the Phillies. (The acquistion of Cliff Lee will probably bump Lopez to the bullpen, and probably send Walker to Lehigh Valley, via the waiver wire.) Lopez survived only four innings, permitting all seven San Francisco runs, on eight hits and two walks. As a result of unusually sloppy Phillies' fielding, only three of those runs was earned. Kyle Kendrick and Walker, both likely destined for AAA before this time next week, each contributed a pair of scoreless frames. But the Phillies were held to a two-run homer by Chase Utley, who drove a blast over the wall in right, only pitches after Giants' starter Jonathan Sanchez had buzzed Utley's tower. Utley's at bat, Walker's retaliatory beaning of Ryan Garko, and Walker's failed attempt at immortality, were pretty much the only useful moments in another weak Phillies' performance.
Cliff Lee makes his long-awaited Phillies debut on Friday night, opposed by Giants' rookie Ryan Sadowski. Fellow new acquisition Ben Francisco (Treat) will be in the lineup as well, subbing for injured All-Star Shane Victorino (day-to-day, with knee contusion). It will be exciting to see how Lee performs. (I'm predicting seven innings, one run.) If Lee pitches to his ability tonight, it might be prudent to get to Modell's very early on Saturday morning. Lee's #34 jersey will be selling as quickly as his 90 MPH heater hurtles towards the strike zone.
Friday, July 31, 2009
Bunts and Balks (7/30)
The Lehigh Valley IronPigs (AAA) lost in ten innings on Thursday, 5-4, to the Columbus Clippers. It must have been disconcerting to see two of Wednesday morning's FeHogs, Jason Donald and Lou Marson, in the starting lineup for the Clippers. In a sign of extreme disrespect, Marson and Donald occupied the last two spots in the Columbus batting order.
Drew Carpenter returned to the LV rotation, making his first start since July 19th. He pitched five strong innings, allowing only one run (five hits, two walks/five whiffs). He left with a 3-1 lead, but Francisco Butto, back in AAA (for a limited time only!), followed with one and two-thirds ineffective innings, before departing with LV trailing, 4-3. Jack Taschner got the loss, but should be held blameless, as he retired two of three batters. The one batter he didn't retire reached on an error, and was permitted to score by Gary Majewski.
Pedro Martinez will make a rehab start for LV on Friday night, facing former FeHog Carlos Carrasco. With the parent club playing on the West Coast, this is a good opportunity to tune in to the IronPigs' broadcast.
OF John Mayberry and RHP Steven Register were optioned to Lehigh Valley from the Phillies. Reinforcements! Mayberry should play regularly in the outfield for the IronPigs, with Register adding another arm to the faltering IronPigs bullpen.
RHP Tyson Brummett and RHP Francisco Butto were demoted from Lehigh Valley to Reading (AA). Butto spent one unsuccessful day in AAA. Brummett had been recalled for five days, in an attempt to replenish the pitching staff. Brummett had been demoted to the bullpen in AA, but was recalled to make a start in AAA. He was ineffective, and only ate four innings.
C Kevin Nelson was promoted to Lehigh Valley, from Reading. With starting catcher Lou Marson joining the Clippers, the IronPigs needed another backstop. Reading's starting catcher, Tuffy Gosewisch, is on the DL. That left Nelson, and Tim Kennelly (batting .171, in 12 games at AA) as the options. Given that Kennelly appears overmatched at AA, it was an easy decision. Paul Hoover should be expected to make the vast majority of the starts behind the plate for the IronPigs.
RHP Joe Savery was promoted to Lehigh Valley, from Reading. The IronPigs rotation has been gutted in recent weeks, but now seems to be almost replenished, with Carpenter/Brian Mazone/Gustavo Chacin/Martinez taking four, of the five, spots. Kyle Kendrick could be returning soon, but it appears the FeHogs wanted another starting option, in the interim.
Joe Savery was very impressive before the All-Star break (12-1, 3.48 ERA), but has struggled in his last five starts (27.2 IP, 41 H, 26 ER, 14 BB/19 K). He may be up in AAA just for a start, or two.
The Reading Phillies (AA) defeated the Portland Sea Dogs on Thursday, 2-0.
Vance Worley was coming off four atrocious starts in a row (18.1 IP, 38 H, 30 ER, 6 BB/12 K), but threw six scoreless innings (3 H, 2 BB/3 K), for his seventh win. Scott Mathieson (2 IP, 0 H, 1 K) and Sergio Escalona (1 IP, 2 K, 11th save) completed the shutout.
LHP Jason Mackintosh was placed on the DL, with a left elbow strain. RHP Scott Mathieson was promoted from Clearwater (A). Mathieson continues to roll through the minors. Could see him in AAA (and MLB?), before the end of Mathieson's season. He could be in the mix for the 2010 Phillies' bullpen.
The Clearwater Threshers (A) shut out the Fort Myers Miracle, 2-0. RHP Darren Byrd pitched eight scoreless innings for the win, allowing only four hits (two walks/six whiffs). Byrd has not allowed a run, in his last three starts (nineteen innings). Steve Susdorf went 1 for 3, and his batting average fell to .398.
Drew Carpenter returned to the LV rotation, making his first start since July 19th. He pitched five strong innings, allowing only one run (five hits, two walks/five whiffs). He left with a 3-1 lead, but Francisco Butto, back in AAA (for a limited time only!), followed with one and two-thirds ineffective innings, before departing with LV trailing, 4-3. Jack Taschner got the loss, but should be held blameless, as he retired two of three batters. The one batter he didn't retire reached on an error, and was permitted to score by Gary Majewski.
Pedro Martinez will make a rehab start for LV on Friday night, facing former FeHog Carlos Carrasco. With the parent club playing on the West Coast, this is a good opportunity to tune in to the IronPigs' broadcast.
OF John Mayberry and RHP Steven Register were optioned to Lehigh Valley from the Phillies. Reinforcements! Mayberry should play regularly in the outfield for the IronPigs, with Register adding another arm to the faltering IronPigs bullpen.
RHP Tyson Brummett and RHP Francisco Butto were demoted from Lehigh Valley to Reading (AA). Butto spent one unsuccessful day in AAA. Brummett had been recalled for five days, in an attempt to replenish the pitching staff. Brummett had been demoted to the bullpen in AA, but was recalled to make a start in AAA. He was ineffective, and only ate four innings.
C Kevin Nelson was promoted to Lehigh Valley, from Reading. With starting catcher Lou Marson joining the Clippers, the IronPigs needed another backstop. Reading's starting catcher, Tuffy Gosewisch, is on the DL. That left Nelson, and Tim Kennelly (batting .171, in 12 games at AA) as the options. Given that Kennelly appears overmatched at AA, it was an easy decision. Paul Hoover should be expected to make the vast majority of the starts behind the plate for the IronPigs.
RHP Joe Savery was promoted to Lehigh Valley, from Reading. The IronPigs rotation has been gutted in recent weeks, but now seems to be almost replenished, with Carpenter/Brian Mazone/Gustavo Chacin/Martinez taking four, of the five, spots. Kyle Kendrick could be returning soon, but it appears the FeHogs wanted another starting option, in the interim.
Joe Savery was very impressive before the All-Star break (12-1, 3.48 ERA), but has struggled in his last five starts (27.2 IP, 41 H, 26 ER, 14 BB/19 K). He may be up in AAA just for a start, or two.
The Reading Phillies (AA) defeated the Portland Sea Dogs on Thursday, 2-0.
Vance Worley was coming off four atrocious starts in a row (18.1 IP, 38 H, 30 ER, 6 BB/12 K), but threw six scoreless innings (3 H, 2 BB/3 K), for his seventh win. Scott Mathieson (2 IP, 0 H, 1 K) and Sergio Escalona (1 IP, 2 K, 11th save) completed the shutout.
LHP Jason Mackintosh was placed on the DL, with a left elbow strain. RHP Scott Mathieson was promoted from Clearwater (A). Mathieson continues to roll through the minors. Could see him in AAA (and MLB?), before the end of Mathieson's season. He could be in the mix for the 2010 Phillies' bullpen.
The Clearwater Threshers (A) shut out the Fort Myers Miracle, 2-0. RHP Darren Byrd pitched eight scoreless innings for the win, allowing only four hits (two walks/six whiffs). Byrd has not allowed a run, in his last three starts (nineteen innings). Steve Susdorf went 1 for 3, and his batting average fell to .398.
Thursday, July 30, 2009
Major Transaction Action (7/30): A Very Special Episode...
The acquisition of Cliff Lee and Ben Francisco from the Indians, in exchange for four minor leaguers, sent waves of transactions rippling through the Phillies organization. Some interesting decisions were made, with some rather difficult choices to be made in the immediate future. The Phillies currently have six starters (for five spots in the rotation) at the major league level. With Pedro Martinez making his second (and, possibly, last?) rehab start in AAA on Friday, a seventh viable starting option is almost ready. Having seven rotational alternatives is the type of depth that most major league clubs would love to have, but with the trade deadline less than a day away, what are the Phillies going to do with this luxury of riches?
Why not go to a six-man rotation?
Would you rather aces Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee combine for 40% of the starts, or 33% of the starts? Would you like the sixth-best starter making 0% of the starts, or 16% of the starts? The starters are accustomed to pitching on every fifth day, so switching to the sixth day, at the point in the season, would be disruptive to their routines. Moving one of the six starters to the 'pen would also make the jettisoning of one of the team's weakest links (Tyler Walker?) possible.
Who will be The Chosen Ones?
Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee, and Joe Blanton are the top three. Rodrigo Lopez will, likely, be moved to the bullpen, after making his Thursday start. Pedro Martinez may be kept in AAA for another start, or two, after Friday, as much to get him more innings, as to delay the necessity of the next decision.
Does J.A. Happ, or Jamie Moyer, stay in the rotation, when Martinez is ready to return to MLB? Happ has been the Phillies' best (not including the recently-acquired Lee), and most consistent, starter this season. He also has a .254 BABIP, 83.5 LOB%, and 4.19 FIP, which all point to rough seas ahead for the young southpaw. (I'm still hoping Happ will be dealt before Friday's trade deadline, as Happ's trade value might be at a career high.) Happ started the season in the bullpen, might benefit from a reduced innings workload (166 IP in 2008, 106 IP in 2009) for the rest of the regular season, and his inevitable regression may be less painful in that role.
Jamie Moyer has had a mediocre season, though he has had better results over the past month. He has 256 career wins, no bullpen experience, and $6.5 million owed him in 2010. It doesn't seem likely that he'll be demoted to the bullpen.
Happ will, probably, be the odd man out in the regular season rotation, but Moyer will, likely, be the odd man out on the postseason roster.
(Martinez could also be used in the bullpen, but it seems likely that he will get at least a few starts, before that type of move is made. Martinez and Happ seem to be the frontrunners for the fourth, and last, spot in the postseason rotation.)
The Phillies made two roster moves on Thursday, with many more projected over the next week.
OF John Mayberry was optioned to Lehigh Valley (AAA). OF Ben Francisco was added to the Phillies' roster. Francisco gives the Phillies a right-handed hitting pinch-hitter, with enough speed to be a viable pinch-runner, and enough defensive ability to get some starts in the outfield/be used as a late-inning defensive replacement. Eric Bruntlett should spend less time on the field, as a result.
Mayberry struggled in the reserve outfielder/pinch-hitter role, and will be able to play every day in AAA.
RHP Steven Register was optioned to Lehigh Valley. LHP Cliff Lee was added to the Phillies' roster. Lee will make his first start as a Phillie on Friday, in San Francisco. Register was the weakest member of the bullpen, and had an option available, so this was an easy decision.
What moves are upcoming?
At this point, we can only make educated guesses. Such as:
August 3: LHP J.C. Romero is activated from the 15-day DL. RHP Tyler Walker is designated for assignment.
Walker is the weakest reliever remaining, and already made it through waivers, when he was DFA'd two weeks ago. He'll likely make it through again, and return to Lehigh Valley.
August 6: RHP Clay Condrey is activated from the 15-day DL. RHP Kyle Kendrick is optioned to Lehigh Valley.
The IronPigs will be glad to get Kendrick back in their patchwork rotation, which currently includes reliever Jake Woods and (should be AA reliever) Tyson Brummett.
August 6?: RHP Chad Durbin is activated from the 15-day DL, and designated for assignment.
Durbin is eligible to return from the DL on August 6th, but might be kept there awhile longer, so the Phillies can postpone this decision. Durbin has struggled this season, with a 5.19 FIP. Durbin's unwieldy FIP, and his $1.635 million contract, may help him get through waivers, and join Lehigh Valley. (With rosters expanding on Sept. 1, teams may be unlikely to claim Durbin, when a cheaper (and more effective?) alternative could be available in the minors.)
August 10?: RHP Pedro Martinez is promoted from Lehigh Valley. Rodrigo Lopez is designated for assignment. J.A. Happ joins the bullpen.
The Phillies might trade Lopez, or Happ, before this point. An injury (Shane Victorino?) may open a roster spot. Jamie Moyer could retire/turn into a coach, but those options seem rather unlikely. But, as it stands right now, Lopez will, probably, get the boot, when Martinez is ready. Lopez is only making 650K, and seems to be a good bet to be picked up by another club.
How does Eric Bruntlett survive all these moves? The Phillies need a backup middle infielder. No one else on their current roster is a viable option for 2B, or SS.
Are there any open spots on the 40-Man Roster, to help facilitate roster moves?
Including Lee and Francisco, the 40-Man roster is currently full. The 40-Man includes Antonio Bastardo on the 15-day DL; he could be moved to the 60-day DL, to open a spot. Jack Taschner and Tyler Walker, AAA-quality relievers, have spots on the 40-Man. Injured Reading (AA) RHP Joe Bisenius has been on the DL since June 2, and Clearwater (A) catcher Joel Naughton is a surprising member of the 40-Man. If the Phillies want to deal J.A. Happ and/or Rodrigo Lopez for some AAA prospects, to replenish the IronPigs, finding them spots on the 40-Man shouldn't be a problem.
It's going to be a rather intriguing month of August for the Phillies. Can they hold their lead in the NL East? Can they survive without Steven Register? Stay tuned...
Why not go to a six-man rotation?
Would you rather aces Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee combine for 40% of the starts, or 33% of the starts? Would you like the sixth-best starter making 0% of the starts, or 16% of the starts? The starters are accustomed to pitching on every fifth day, so switching to the sixth day, at the point in the season, would be disruptive to their routines. Moving one of the six starters to the 'pen would also make the jettisoning of one of the team's weakest links (Tyler Walker?) possible.
Who will be The Chosen Ones?
Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee, and Joe Blanton are the top three. Rodrigo Lopez will, likely, be moved to the bullpen, after making his Thursday start. Pedro Martinez may be kept in AAA for another start, or two, after Friday, as much to get him more innings, as to delay the necessity of the next decision.
Does J.A. Happ, or Jamie Moyer, stay in the rotation, when Martinez is ready to return to MLB? Happ has been the Phillies' best (not including the recently-acquired Lee), and most consistent, starter this season. He also has a .254 BABIP, 83.5 LOB%, and 4.19 FIP, which all point to rough seas ahead for the young southpaw. (I'm still hoping Happ will be dealt before Friday's trade deadline, as Happ's trade value might be at a career high.) Happ started the season in the bullpen, might benefit from a reduced innings workload (166 IP in 2008, 106 IP in 2009) for the rest of the regular season, and his inevitable regression may be less painful in that role.
Jamie Moyer has had a mediocre season, though he has had better results over the past month. He has 256 career wins, no bullpen experience, and $6.5 million owed him in 2010. It doesn't seem likely that he'll be demoted to the bullpen.
Happ will, probably, be the odd man out in the regular season rotation, but Moyer will, likely, be the odd man out on the postseason roster.
(Martinez could also be used in the bullpen, but it seems likely that he will get at least a few starts, before that type of move is made. Martinez and Happ seem to be the frontrunners for the fourth, and last, spot in the postseason rotation.)
The Phillies made two roster moves on Thursday, with many more projected over the next week.
OF John Mayberry was optioned to Lehigh Valley (AAA). OF Ben Francisco was added to the Phillies' roster. Francisco gives the Phillies a right-handed hitting pinch-hitter, with enough speed to be a viable pinch-runner, and enough defensive ability to get some starts in the outfield/be used as a late-inning defensive replacement. Eric Bruntlett should spend less time on the field, as a result.
Mayberry struggled in the reserve outfielder/pinch-hitter role, and will be able to play every day in AAA.
RHP Steven Register was optioned to Lehigh Valley. LHP Cliff Lee was added to the Phillies' roster. Lee will make his first start as a Phillie on Friday, in San Francisco. Register was the weakest member of the bullpen, and had an option available, so this was an easy decision.
What moves are upcoming?
At this point, we can only make educated guesses. Such as:
August 3: LHP J.C. Romero is activated from the 15-day DL. RHP Tyler Walker is designated for assignment.
Walker is the weakest reliever remaining, and already made it through waivers, when he was DFA'd two weeks ago. He'll likely make it through again, and return to Lehigh Valley.
August 6: RHP Clay Condrey is activated from the 15-day DL. RHP Kyle Kendrick is optioned to Lehigh Valley.
The IronPigs will be glad to get Kendrick back in their patchwork rotation, which currently includes reliever Jake Woods and (should be AA reliever) Tyson Brummett.
August 6?: RHP Chad Durbin is activated from the 15-day DL, and designated for assignment.
Durbin is eligible to return from the DL on August 6th, but might be kept there awhile longer, so the Phillies can postpone this decision. Durbin has struggled this season, with a 5.19 FIP. Durbin's unwieldy FIP, and his $1.635 million contract, may help him get through waivers, and join Lehigh Valley. (With rosters expanding on Sept. 1, teams may be unlikely to claim Durbin, when a cheaper (and more effective?) alternative could be available in the minors.)
August 10?: RHP Pedro Martinez is promoted from Lehigh Valley. Rodrigo Lopez is designated for assignment. J.A. Happ joins the bullpen.
The Phillies might trade Lopez, or Happ, before this point. An injury (Shane Victorino?) may open a roster spot. Jamie Moyer could retire/turn into a coach, but those options seem rather unlikely. But, as it stands right now, Lopez will, probably, get the boot, when Martinez is ready. Lopez is only making 650K, and seems to be a good bet to be picked up by another club.
How does Eric Bruntlett survive all these moves? The Phillies need a backup middle infielder. No one else on their current roster is a viable option for 2B, or SS.
Are there any open spots on the 40-Man Roster, to help facilitate roster moves?
Including Lee and Francisco, the 40-Man roster is currently full. The 40-Man includes Antonio Bastardo on the 15-day DL; he could be moved to the 60-day DL, to open a spot. Jack Taschner and Tyler Walker, AAA-quality relievers, have spots on the 40-Man. Injured Reading (AA) RHP Joe Bisenius has been on the DL since June 2, and Clearwater (A) catcher Joel Naughton is a surprising member of the 40-Man. If the Phillies want to deal J.A. Happ and/or Rodrigo Lopez for some AAA prospects, to replenish the IronPigs, finding them spots on the 40-Man shouldn't be a problem.
It's going to be a rather intriguing month of August for the Phillies. Can they hold their lead in the NL East? Can they survive without Steven Register? Stay tuned...
Phillies Offense Absent, in Loss to Arizona
J.A. Happ spent part of Wednesday worrying about, potentially, being traded to an organization that will not win the 2009 World Series. After the Phillies acquired starter Cliff Lee, for four minor league prospects, Happ was likely concerned for his spot in the rotation. But Happ didn't let the things he couldn't control affect his performance. He took what he could control, namely, the Arizona bats not wielded by Justin Upton, and made a strong argument for his continued inclusion the the Phillies' fave five. Unfortunately, despite Happ's excellence (six innings, three hits, two runs, two walks/five strikeouts), the Phillies' offense, which had been able to solve Cy Young candidate Dan Haren on Tuesday, was unable to figure out AAA candidate Yusmeiro Petit, in a 4-0 loss.
Happ was a solitary success, in a night of Phillies failures. There were so many goats in Wednesday's defeat, that only bullet points can contain them:
Happ was a solitary success, in a night of Phillies failures. There were so many goats in Wednesday's defeat, that only bullet points can contain them:
- The Phillies' offense combined for seven hits (five singles, two doubles), twelve strikeouts, nine LOB, and an 0 for 11 w/RISP.
- Shane Victorino allowed a bloody nose, which was multiple innings in duration, and a painful knee contusion, to knock him out of the contest in only the eighth inning.
- John Mayberry did not replace Victorino, as a PH, and in the field, with Jayson Werth moving from, RF to CF. Mayberry's days are numbered (the number is probably zero, at this point) but wasn't he a better option than Eric Bruntlett? (Wasn't Chan Ho Park a better PH-ing option than Bruntlett?) Mayberry only has a .554 OPS against RHP, but Bruntlett has a .211 OPS against RHP. Shouldn't Mayberry have been used to face Arizona northpaw Jon Rauch? Additionally, Eric Bruntlett is Eric Bruntlett!
- Eric Bruntlett played, and was allowed to bat. These are not good things.
- Jayson Werth struck out on a pitch that was about six inches underground, with two runners on, and no outs, in the seventh inning of a 2-0 game. The Phillies failed to score in the inning, despite having runners on second and third, with no outs.
- Newly-acquired OF Ben Francisco did not arrive in time to be activated for Wednesday night's game. Ben, you're on the WFCs now. No excuses.
- Scott Eyre relieved to start the seventh, and surrended a home run to the first batter he faced.
- Tyler Walker relieved to start the eighth, and was fortunate to only allow one run. The run was charged to Walker's ERA, increasing it to 3.46, which still greatly overstates his level of effectiveness.
- Steven Register did not pitch, because he is not even as good at baseball as Tyler Walker.
Tough loss for the Phils, but they still took two of three games in Arizona, which is not a bad result. The Phillies will have future opportunities to crush the Diamondbacks, beneath the weight of their imperious cleats. When the time comes, the impudence of Yusmeiro Petit will be remembered, and handled accordingly.
Wednesday, July 29, 2009
Phillies Acquire Cliff Lee
Multiple sources are reporting that the Phillies and Indians have agreed, pending physicals, on a deal that would send Cliff Lee to Philadelphia.
The Phillies would, reportedly, send RHP Carlos Carrasco (AAA), IF Jason Donald (AAA), C Lou Marson (AAA), and RHP Jason Knapp (A), to Cleveland, in exchange for Lee, and OF Ben Francisco.
While it is disappointing not to pick up Roy Halladay, acquiring Lee, without dealing top prospects Kyle Drabek, Dominic Brown, or Michael Taylor, is a great move. A rotation of Cole Hamels, Lee, Joe Blanton, J.A. Happ/Pedro Martinez could go deep in the playoffs, with Martinez/Happ/Rodrigo Lopez/Brett Myers bolstering the sagging bullpen. (Starter Jamie Moyer and reliever Chad Durbin seem likely to be the odd men out, when the playoffs start.)
Ben Francisco gives the Phils a legit RH bench bat/late-inning defensive replacement for Raul Ibanez. Eric Bruntlett can return to being a utility infielder, who is used sparingly. John Mayberry, Jr. can return to Lehigh Valley (AAA), and play more regularly.
As for the players the Phils gave up:
Jason Donald doesn't seem to be anything more than a utility infield prospect. Not a lot of upside there.
Lou Marson could be a suitable backup catcher, but likely won't hit (or field) well enough to supplant Carlos Ruiz. Travis D'Arnaud was the Phillies' likely "catcher of the future", even before this deal. (Unless you consider Sebastian Valle to be the "catcher of the future.")
Carlos Carrasco could be really good, #2 starter good. He has the stuff, but lacks the poise. However, he is certainly young enough to gain the necessary maturity to be a mid-rotation starter, and he has been very unlucky this season (in AAA).
Jason Knapp is an incredible prospect- 18 years old, throws high-90s heat. But anything could happen here, fireballers that young don't always pan out/stay healthy.
The Phils gave up some quality prospects, but they definitely improved their WFC II/III chances, without seriously jeopardizing their ability to contend in subsequent seasons.
Great job by Phillies' GM Ruben Amaro!
(Of course it would be a REALLY great job, if Amaro still managed to get Halladay. Don't see that happening though...)
The Phillies would, reportedly, send RHP Carlos Carrasco (AAA), IF Jason Donald (AAA), C Lou Marson (AAA), and RHP Jason Knapp (A), to Cleveland, in exchange for Lee, and OF Ben Francisco.
While it is disappointing not to pick up Roy Halladay, acquiring Lee, without dealing top prospects Kyle Drabek, Dominic Brown, or Michael Taylor, is a great move. A rotation of Cole Hamels, Lee, Joe Blanton, J.A. Happ/Pedro Martinez could go deep in the playoffs, with Martinez/Happ/Rodrigo Lopez/Brett Myers bolstering the sagging bullpen. (Starter Jamie Moyer and reliever Chad Durbin seem likely to be the odd men out, when the playoffs start.)
Ben Francisco gives the Phils a legit RH bench bat/late-inning defensive replacement for Raul Ibanez. Eric Bruntlett can return to being a utility infielder, who is used sparingly. John Mayberry, Jr. can return to Lehigh Valley (AAA), and play more regularly.
As for the players the Phils gave up:
Jason Donald doesn't seem to be anything more than a utility infield prospect. Not a lot of upside there.
Lou Marson could be a suitable backup catcher, but likely won't hit (or field) well enough to supplant Carlos Ruiz. Travis D'Arnaud was the Phillies' likely "catcher of the future", even before this deal. (Unless you consider Sebastian Valle to be the "catcher of the future.")
Carlos Carrasco could be really good, #2 starter good. He has the stuff, but lacks the poise. However, he is certainly young enough to gain the necessary maturity to be a mid-rotation starter, and he has been very unlucky this season (in AAA).
Jason Knapp is an incredible prospect- 18 years old, throws high-90s heat. But anything could happen here, fireballers that young don't always pan out/stay healthy.
The Phils gave up some quality prospects, but they definitely improved their WFC II/III chances, without seriously jeopardizing their ability to contend in subsequent seasons.
Great job by Phillies' GM Ruben Amaro!
(Of course it would be a REALLY great job, if Amaro still managed to get Halladay. Don't see that happening though...)
Breaking News: Carrasco, Donald, and Marson Out of Lehigh Valley Lineup For Morning Game
Potential trade pieces Carlos Carrasco, Jason Donald, and Lou Marson are all on the bench, as the Lehigh Valley IronPigs (AAA) play an 11:05am game against the Columbus Clippers.
Infielder Jason Donald, who returned from the DL on Tuesday night, was not expected to start. Catcher Lou Marson was also not expected to start, in a morning game after a night game. (Outfield prospect Michael Taylor, who's name has been oft-mentioned in trade proposals, is in the starting lineup.)
Carlos Carrasco was scheduled as the starting pitcher, but was replaced by journeyman bullpenner Jake Woods. Carrasco has been mentioned in trade talk with Cleveland, who are considering trading southpaw Cliff Lee. Carrasco's 6-9 record, and 5.18 ERA do not look very impressive, but the northpaw is only twenty-two, has "electric" stuff, and has suffered from BABIP (.330) and LOB% (62.8) issues. His FIP of 4.01 is impressive, when you consider his age/experience level.
Carrasco's removal could:
-mean that the Phillies are close to dealing Carrasco to Cleveland
-that the Blue Jays have softened their alleged trade demands, and are considering Carrasco as part of the package for Roy Halladay
-be a bluff by the Phillies, who want the Blue Jays to believe that the Phillies are close to dealing for Lee
Things continue to get interesting...
Infielder Jason Donald, who returned from the DL on Tuesday night, was not expected to start. Catcher Lou Marson was also not expected to start, in a morning game after a night game. (Outfield prospect Michael Taylor, who's name has been oft-mentioned in trade proposals, is in the starting lineup.)
Carlos Carrasco was scheduled as the starting pitcher, but was replaced by journeyman bullpenner Jake Woods. Carrasco has been mentioned in trade talk with Cleveland, who are considering trading southpaw Cliff Lee. Carrasco's 6-9 record, and 5.18 ERA do not look very impressive, but the northpaw is only twenty-two, has "electric" stuff, and has suffered from BABIP (.330) and LOB% (62.8) issues. His FIP of 4.01 is impressive, when you consider his age/experience level.
Carrasco's removal could:
-mean that the Phillies are close to dealing Carrasco to Cleveland
-that the Blue Jays have softened their alleged trade demands, and are considering Carrasco as part of the package for Roy Halladay
-be a bluff by the Phillies, who want the Blue Jays to believe that the Phillies are close to dealing for Lee
Things continue to get interesting...
Hamels and Phils Dominate D-Backs in Win
The Phillies played like WFCs on Tuesday night, winning for the eighth time in ten games, with a 4-3 victory in Arizona. Behind a crowd peppered with Phillies fans, including two in Phillies' wrestling masks, Cole Hamels exhibited the form that made him World Series MVP. Hamels permitted a solo home run to the second batter he faced, and almost nothing else. Hamels pitched eight very impressive innings, surrendering only four hits, while walking none. He struck out nine batters, threw seventy-nine of one-hundred twelve pitches for strikes, and retired the last eight D-backs he faced. With Arizona ace Dan Haren opposing him, Hamels took command of the game, and ensured the Phils the win.
The Phillies took an excellent approach with Haren, forcing him to work deep into counts, which took a serious beating on his pitch count. Eight Phillies had ABs against Haren, in which they saw at least seven pitches. One of the best ABs was by Hamels, who took the count full, stayed alive with a foul ball, and then laced a double into the gap in left-center. Haren was forced out of the game after five innings, having already thrown one-hundred and seventeen pitches. The Phillies' offense was paced by Shane Victorino, who went 3 for 5, falling a triple short of a cycle. Victorino is now batting .319, after his two-RBI night. Brad Lidge got his 20th save, finishing up in the ninth. (Lidge permitted two runs, increasing his ERA to 7.11. Lidge made a non-eventful ending, an eventful one, by adding bad events to the end. But I'm just going to jam that info into parentheses, at the end of a paragraph, because I don't wan't to adversely affect the good Phillies vibe we have going right now.)
The Phillies will go for the sweep in Arizona on Wednesday night, with J.A. Happ (7-1, 2.97 ERA) opposed by Yusmeiro Petit (0-5, 7.68 ERA). Happ's impending regression, which may have begun in his most recent start (the bloopfest against St. Louis), aside, the Phils have to like their sweep chances. The Phillies, currently, lead the NL East by seven games over Florida, and eight over Atlanta. Their postseason odds are already over 79%, and will only be getting better. Especially when they add Roy Halladay to the roster.
The Phillies took an excellent approach with Haren, forcing him to work deep into counts, which took a serious beating on his pitch count. Eight Phillies had ABs against Haren, in which they saw at least seven pitches. One of the best ABs was by Hamels, who took the count full, stayed alive with a foul ball, and then laced a double into the gap in left-center. Haren was forced out of the game after five innings, having already thrown one-hundred and seventeen pitches. The Phillies' offense was paced by Shane Victorino, who went 3 for 5, falling a triple short of a cycle. Victorino is now batting .319, after his two-RBI night. Brad Lidge got his 20th save, finishing up in the ninth. (Lidge permitted two runs, increasing his ERA to 7.11. Lidge made a non-eventful ending, an eventful one, by adding bad events to the end. But I'm just going to jam that info into parentheses, at the end of a paragraph, because I don't wan't to adversely affect the good Phillies vibe we have going right now.)
The Phillies will go for the sweep in Arizona on Wednesday night, with J.A. Happ (7-1, 2.97 ERA) opposed by Yusmeiro Petit (0-5, 7.68 ERA). Happ's impending regression, which may have begun in his most recent start (the bloopfest against St. Louis), aside, the Phils have to like their sweep chances. The Phillies, currently, lead the NL East by seven games over Florida, and eight over Atlanta. Their postseason odds are already over 79%, and will only be getting better. Especially when they add Roy Halladay to the roster.
Bunts and Balks (7/28)
The Lehigh Valley IronPigs (AAA) beat the Columbus Clippers on Tuesday, 4-2. Gustavo Chacin (the Machine?) had a strong start, improving to 6-3, with a 3.45 ERA. Chacin went six innings, allowing one run, on four hits (three walks/two strikeouts). Jason Donald returned to the lineup, at SS, and was 2 for 4, with a double. (Hopefully, that helped Donald's trade value.)
The Reading Phillies (AA) imploded in the late innings, losing 12-1, to the Portland Sea Dogs. The R-Phils surrendered seven runs, in Portland's last two innings, only one of which was an earned run. We will never speak of this again.
Starter Joe Savery continued to decrease his trade value, allowing three runs (six hits, three walks/three strikeouts) in only five innings. Savery dropped to 12-4 on the season, with a 4.41 ERA. Neil Sellers was 3 for 4, raising his average to .329. Tim Kennelly, playing in RF, continued to be overmatched at AA, with his 1 for 4 night dropping his average to .143. Expect recently-demoted OF Michael Spidale's return to relegate Kennelly to the backup catcher role, behind Kevin Nelson.
The Clearwater Threshers (A) held on in the ninth inning to defeat the St. Lucie Mets, 4-3. The Threshers lead 4-0, as play entered the ninth. Reliever Carlos Monasterios allowed four hits, and three runs, before escaping. Michael Galen Cisco pitched seven scoreless innings, permitting only a pair of singles (zero walks/eight whiffs!). Cisco improved to 7-3, with a 3.31 ERA. Dominic Brown was 2 for 3, with a pair of singles, raising his average to .310. Steve Susdorf's average fell back under .400, at .398, with a 1 for 4 night.
The Threshers activated C Joel Naughton from the DL, and placed C Luis Ramon Arzeno on the DL. Naughton is batting .225, with a .658 OPS. Nonetheless, he is a stark improvement over Arzeno, who sported a .215 average, with an OPS of only .498.
The Reading Phillies (AA) imploded in the late innings, losing 12-1, to the Portland Sea Dogs. The R-Phils surrendered seven runs, in Portland's last two innings, only one of which was an earned run. We will never speak of this again.
Starter Joe Savery continued to decrease his trade value, allowing three runs (six hits, three walks/three strikeouts) in only five innings. Savery dropped to 12-4 on the season, with a 4.41 ERA. Neil Sellers was 3 for 4, raising his average to .329. Tim Kennelly, playing in RF, continued to be overmatched at AA, with his 1 for 4 night dropping his average to .143. Expect recently-demoted OF Michael Spidale's return to relegate Kennelly to the backup catcher role, behind Kevin Nelson.
The Clearwater Threshers (A) held on in the ninth inning to defeat the St. Lucie Mets, 4-3. The Threshers lead 4-0, as play entered the ninth. Reliever Carlos Monasterios allowed four hits, and three runs, before escaping. Michael Galen Cisco pitched seven scoreless innings, permitting only a pair of singles (zero walks/eight whiffs!). Cisco improved to 7-3, with a 3.31 ERA. Dominic Brown was 2 for 3, with a pair of singles, raising his average to .310. Steve Susdorf's average fell back under .400, at .398, with a 1 for 4 night.
The Threshers activated C Joel Naughton from the DL, and placed C Luis Ramon Arzeno on the DL. Naughton is batting .225, with a .658 OPS. Nonetheless, he is a stark improvement over Arzeno, who sported a .215 average, with an OPS of only .498.
Tuesday, July 28, 2009
Halladay to Phils: Just a Matter of Time...
For the better part of the twenty-first century, I've fantasized of a Phillies rotation fronted by Roy Halladay. Now, with only days remaining before the trade deadline, Halladay in a Phillies uniform is about to become a reality. No questions asked. It's only a matter of determining which Phillies' prospects will comprise the bounty headed to Toronto. Well, that, and picking a uniform number for the new Phillies' ace. (I'm thinking #23. I'm sure Gabor won't mind giving it up.)
The next few days are a time to sit back, and observe the proceedings with detached amusement, with the final result all but assured. The Blue Jays need to cut payroll, immediately. The Blue Jays need to replace Halladay with cost-controlled prospects, which the Phillies have in abundance. Halladay will only approve a trade to a few teams, at most. Perhaps, he will only approve a trade to the Phillies, a strong playoff contender with a Spring Training home conveniently located in Clearwater, Florida. The Blue Jays do not want to trade Halladay within their division, where they'll have to face him five times a season (at least), and where he can help keep them out of the playoffs. These truths are evident. These truths are the reason Roy Halladay will be a Phillie, when the dust generated by the trading deadline clears. All of the negotiations through the media, the arbitrary pre-trade deadline deadlines, the ineffectual efforts to gain leverage, the repeated posturing, the collecting of prospect packages from teams not actually in the running, the low probabilities periodically assigned to the possibility of a Halladay trade, are all almost irrelevant. Halladay will be a Phillie.
As for the prospects the Phillies will eventually surrender to Toronto, in exchange for two postseason runs headed by baseball's best pitcher, who knows what will become of them? J.A. Happ, the Phillies' best starter this season, could easily regress into a back-of-the-rotation arm. Top prospect Kyle Drabek is coming off Tommy John surgery. His usage this season seems to be with confidence (and trade value) maximation in mind. He started out in A ball, where he was well ahead of the competition. A promotion to AA followed, where he has only started on the road once, against the victory-challenged Altoona Curve, and their sub-.400 winning percentage. Drabek may not even be a Happ. Outfield prospects Michael Taylor and Dominic Brown could be All-Stars, or they could be Marlon Byrds or Greg Golsons. Either way, the Phillies could have two more WFCs, before either reaches the Major Leagues. Jason Donald? A Bruntlett, without the Economics degree. Lou Marson? A singles-hitting, backup catcher.
So, don't get overly concerned about the Halladay Deal. The Phillies are going to surrender as few prospects as possible, in exchange for one of MLB's few "givens." Relax, enjoy the ride, and make some room on your bobblehead shelf for a Phillies bobble with the name "Halladay" on the back, and for two more World Championship trophy paperweights.
The next few days are a time to sit back, and observe the proceedings with detached amusement, with the final result all but assured. The Blue Jays need to cut payroll, immediately. The Blue Jays need to replace Halladay with cost-controlled prospects, which the Phillies have in abundance. Halladay will only approve a trade to a few teams, at most. Perhaps, he will only approve a trade to the Phillies, a strong playoff contender with a Spring Training home conveniently located in Clearwater, Florida. The Blue Jays do not want to trade Halladay within their division, where they'll have to face him five times a season (at least), and where he can help keep them out of the playoffs. These truths are evident. These truths are the reason Roy Halladay will be a Phillie, when the dust generated by the trading deadline clears. All of the negotiations through the media, the arbitrary pre-trade deadline deadlines, the ineffectual efforts to gain leverage, the repeated posturing, the collecting of prospect packages from teams not actually in the running, the low probabilities periodically assigned to the possibility of a Halladay trade, are all almost irrelevant. Halladay will be a Phillie.
As for the prospects the Phillies will eventually surrender to Toronto, in exchange for two postseason runs headed by baseball's best pitcher, who knows what will become of them? J.A. Happ, the Phillies' best starter this season, could easily regress into a back-of-the-rotation arm. Top prospect Kyle Drabek is coming off Tommy John surgery. His usage this season seems to be with confidence (and trade value) maximation in mind. He started out in A ball, where he was well ahead of the competition. A promotion to AA followed, where he has only started on the road once, against the victory-challenged Altoona Curve, and their sub-.400 winning percentage. Drabek may not even be a Happ. Outfield prospects Michael Taylor and Dominic Brown could be All-Stars, or they could be Marlon Byrds or Greg Golsons. Either way, the Phillies could have two more WFCs, before either reaches the Major Leagues. Jason Donald? A Bruntlett, without the Economics degree. Lou Marson? A singles-hitting, backup catcher.
So, don't get overly concerned about the Halladay Deal. The Phillies are going to surrender as few prospects as possible, in exchange for one of MLB's few "givens." Relax, enjoy the ride, and make some room on your bobblehead shelf for a Phillies bobble with the name "Halladay" on the back, and for two more World Championship trophy paperweights.
Moyer Escapes Arizona with Win #256
Jamie Moyer was in trouble. Again. In the first inning of Monday night's game in Arizona, Moyer had stranded D-Back baserunners on first and second. In the second frame, Moyer allowed the first three batters to reach base, but escaped unscathed, striking out the opposing pitcher, and inducing an inning-ending twin-killing. This time, Moyer had begun the third inning by surrendering a leadoff single, followed by a walk. With Arizona slugger Mark Reynolds due to bat, it appeared that Moyer's early-inning fortune was about to run out.
Fortunately for Moyer and the Phillies, Reynolds' ability to hit for power is coupled by a propensity for whiffing. A strikeout, and two infield pops later, Moyer had escaped another potential rally. Ryan Howard gave the Phils a 2-0 lead in the fourth, with a long drive over the fence in center. Moyer settled down, shutting out the D-Backs through six and two-thirds innings, while the Phillies took advantage of some shoddy Arizona fielding, and took a 6-0 advantage. Ryan Madson, pitching with a 6-0 lead, surrendered two runs in the eighth, one on a Reynolds home run. Brad Lidge came on in the ninth, retiring the side in order, in a non-save situation.
Moyer has posted a 3.30 ERA in July, in thirty innings (five starts). As a whole, the Phillies' starting pitchers have posted a 2.80 July ERA. With that kind of starting pitching, the Phillies hardly need Roy Halladay, right? Well, no. Moyer has pitched well in three July starts, against weak teams (Mets, Marlins, D-Backs), and very poorly in two July starts, against the Reds and Cubs. Moyer should be on the sidelines in the postseason, unless the Phils happen to face the Florida Marlins in the NLCS. The non-Moyer components of the rotation have done well recently, particularly Joe Blanton, but those gaudy numbers have been posted (for the most part) at the expense of some very weak competition. While the timing has been good, as the starters have eaten innings that otherwise would have been forced down the throats of overworked Chan Ho Park and Ryan Madson, not to mention helping minimize the appearances of the likes of Tyler Walker and Steven Register, the Phils still need to upgrade their postseason rotation. The difference between a Halladay-Hamels-Blanton top three, and a Hamels-Blanton-Happ combo, is rather sizeable, and could be the difference between WFC II, and a loss in the NL playoffs.
Cole Hamels takes the mound on Tuesday night in Arizona, opposed by D-Backs' ace Dan Haren (2.14 ERA/.84 WHIP!). A few years from now, the Phillies could be looking to acquire Haren at the deadline, in order to bolster their playoff rotation. Tonight, the Phils will probably just be looking to get Haren's pitch count up, so that they can take their chances against the Arizona bullpen.
Fortunately for Moyer and the Phillies, Reynolds' ability to hit for power is coupled by a propensity for whiffing. A strikeout, and two infield pops later, Moyer had escaped another potential rally. Ryan Howard gave the Phils a 2-0 lead in the fourth, with a long drive over the fence in center. Moyer settled down, shutting out the D-Backs through six and two-thirds innings, while the Phillies took advantage of some shoddy Arizona fielding, and took a 6-0 advantage. Ryan Madson, pitching with a 6-0 lead, surrendered two runs in the eighth, one on a Reynolds home run. Brad Lidge came on in the ninth, retiring the side in order, in a non-save situation.
Moyer has posted a 3.30 ERA in July, in thirty innings (five starts). As a whole, the Phillies' starting pitchers have posted a 2.80 July ERA. With that kind of starting pitching, the Phillies hardly need Roy Halladay, right? Well, no. Moyer has pitched well in three July starts, against weak teams (Mets, Marlins, D-Backs), and very poorly in two July starts, against the Reds and Cubs. Moyer should be on the sidelines in the postseason, unless the Phils happen to face the Florida Marlins in the NLCS. The non-Moyer components of the rotation have done well recently, particularly Joe Blanton, but those gaudy numbers have been posted (for the most part) at the expense of some very weak competition. While the timing has been good, as the starters have eaten innings that otherwise would have been forced down the throats of overworked Chan Ho Park and Ryan Madson, not to mention helping minimize the appearances of the likes of Tyler Walker and Steven Register, the Phils still need to upgrade their postseason rotation. The difference between a Halladay-Hamels-Blanton top three, and a Hamels-Blanton-Happ combo, is rather sizeable, and could be the difference between WFC II, and a loss in the NL playoffs.
Cole Hamels takes the mound on Tuesday night in Arizona, opposed by D-Backs' ace Dan Haren (2.14 ERA/.84 WHIP!). A few years from now, the Phillies could be looking to acquire Haren at the deadline, in order to bolster their playoff rotation. Tonight, the Phils will probably just be looking to get Haren's pitch count up, so that they can take their chances against the Arizona bullpen.
Bunts and Balks (7/27)
The Lehigh Valley IronPigs (AAA) fell to the Gwinnett Braves on Monday, 7-2.
The FeHogs were held scoreless (four hits/no walks) for the first four innings, by Tim Hudson. Not surprising. Meanwhile, Tyson Brummett surrendered six runs (five earned) on seven hits, in his four innings. Also, not surprising. The IronPigs went 0 for 7 w/RISP, stranding nine runners. Brummett's seventy-pitch outing helped get the weary and depleted Lehigh Valley staff through another game, with Gustavo Chacin and, presumably, Andrew Carpenter, ready to start the next two games.
The IronPigs activated IF Jason Donald from the Disabled List. OF Michael Spidale was assigned to Reading (AA), in order to open a roster spot. With an infield full of AAAA non-prospects, Donald should get some regular playing time for the FeHogs. Spidale batted .289 in AAA, but his OPS was only .674. He should help the R-Phils' offense, which has a Michael Taylor-sized void in it's lineup.
With Toronto Blue Jays scouts in attendance, top prospect Kyle Drabek had a strong outing, in a 4-3 victory over the Portland Sea Dogs. Drabek improved to 7-1, with a 3.06 ERA. The highly-touted southpaw pitched seven innings, allowing only two runs, on seven hits (zero walks/five strikeouts, one home run allowed). Chance Chapman pitched a scoreless ninth, picking up his first save.
The Clearwater Threshers (AA) won Sunday's suspended game over the St. Lucie Mets, 4-2. Dominic Brown went 2 for 4, including his tenth homer. Steve Susdorf was 2 for 3, improving his average to .397. Travis Cloyd pitched five and two-thirds innings, limiting the Mets to a pair of runs (seven hits, one walk/five strikeouts). Michael Schwimer followed with two scoreless frames, for his 12th save.
The Threshers completed their Monday sweep of the St. Lucie Mets, winning the seven-inning nightcap, 4-3. Dominic Brown was 2 for 2, with his second home run of the day, improving his average to .305. Steve Susdorf was 2 for 3, getting his average back over the .400 mark, at .403. Starter Edgar Garcia made his first appearance for the Threshers, pitching three innings, and allowing three hits (one walk/one strikeout). He was responsible for two runs, both of which scored after he left the game. (Garcia had been unavailable due to visa issues, which were resolved in the past week.) Scott Mathieson pitched two more scoreless innings, giving him seven flawless frames for the Threshers this season, and picked up his first save.
The FeHogs were held scoreless (four hits/no walks) for the first four innings, by Tim Hudson. Not surprising. Meanwhile, Tyson Brummett surrendered six runs (five earned) on seven hits, in his four innings. Also, not surprising. The IronPigs went 0 for 7 w/RISP, stranding nine runners. Brummett's seventy-pitch outing helped get the weary and depleted Lehigh Valley staff through another game, with Gustavo Chacin and, presumably, Andrew Carpenter, ready to start the next two games.
The IronPigs activated IF Jason Donald from the Disabled List. OF Michael Spidale was assigned to Reading (AA), in order to open a roster spot. With an infield full of AAAA non-prospects, Donald should get some regular playing time for the FeHogs. Spidale batted .289 in AAA, but his OPS was only .674. He should help the R-Phils' offense, which has a Michael Taylor-sized void in it's lineup.
With Toronto Blue Jays scouts in attendance, top prospect Kyle Drabek had a strong outing, in a 4-3 victory over the Portland Sea Dogs. Drabek improved to 7-1, with a 3.06 ERA. The highly-touted southpaw pitched seven innings, allowing only two runs, on seven hits (zero walks/five strikeouts, one home run allowed). Chance Chapman pitched a scoreless ninth, picking up his first save.
The Clearwater Threshers (AA) won Sunday's suspended game over the St. Lucie Mets, 4-2. Dominic Brown went 2 for 4, including his tenth homer. Steve Susdorf was 2 for 3, improving his average to .397. Travis Cloyd pitched five and two-thirds innings, limiting the Mets to a pair of runs (seven hits, one walk/five strikeouts). Michael Schwimer followed with two scoreless frames, for his 12th save.
The Threshers completed their Monday sweep of the St. Lucie Mets, winning the seven-inning nightcap, 4-3. Dominic Brown was 2 for 2, with his second home run of the day, improving his average to .305. Steve Susdorf was 2 for 3, getting his average back over the .400 mark, at .403. Starter Edgar Garcia made his first appearance for the Threshers, pitching three innings, and allowing three hits (one walk/one strikeout). He was responsible for two runs, both of which scored after he left the game. (Garcia had been unavailable due to visa issues, which were resolved in the past week.) Scott Mathieson pitched two more scoreless innings, giving him seven flawless frames for the Threshers this season, and picked up his first save.
Monday, July 27, 2009
Bunts and Balks (7/26)
Pedro Martinez made his first non-simulated rehab start on Sunday, for the Clearwater Threshers (A). On Wet N' Wacky Sunday, wet weather shortened Martinez' outing to only one and one-third innings. Martinez threw his fastball in the 87-92 MPH range, with his signature changeup in good form. He had one strikeout, and got his other three outs via fly balls. He threw in the bullpen after play was suspended, to continue to get his pitch count up.
Martinez is expected to make his next start for the Lehigh Valley IronPigs (AAA) on Friday.
RHP Tyson Brummett was promoted from Reading (AA) to Lehigh Valley. Brummett posted a 5.09 ERA in 15 starts. He was bumped to the R-Phils' bullpen, when LHP Yohan Flande was promoted from Clearwater. Brummett, in his last 10 appearances, has pitched 18 innings. He has allowed 15 runs (7.50 ERA), 26 hits, and 9 walks (6 whiffs).
So, why did Brummett get the promotion to the IronPigs? The LV rotation has been gutted by the parent club's recent roster moves. The current rotation consists of Carlos Carrasco, Gustavo Chacin, Brian Mazone, ?, and ??. Andrew Carpenter will take one of those slots, but he pitched for Philadelphia on Thursday and Friday, and is not immediately available to make a start. Reliever Jake Woods was forced into a spot start on Saturday, throwing 50 pitches, in three innings.
The Reading starting rotation currently has no viable promotion options. Vance Worley and Joe Savery have struggled as of late, and may be battling arm fatigue. Yohan Flande and Kyle Drabek both need more time at the AA level. Mike Stutes has pitched brilliantly recently, but, like the other four starters, his development is best-served by remaining at Reading.
Brummett's arm is still sufficiently stretched out to eat some innings, and he isn't really viewed as a prospect, at this point. Brummett will start for the IronPigs on Monday, facing Gwinnett's Tim Hudson, the rehabbing MLBer, who is expected to pitch four innings.
The Lehigh Valley IronPigs lost to the Gwinnett Braves on Sunday, 5-1. LV starter Brian Mazone had only allowed one run, through four innings, when the Braves got to him for four more in the fifth inning. Mazone fell to 0-3, with a 5.03 ERA. The FeHogs offense was punchless, with only six hits, all singles.
The Reading Phillies (AA) defeated the Bowie Baysox, 2-0. Yohan Flande had his best start for the R-Phils, throwing six and one-third scoreless innings (four hits, one walk/seven whiffs). Reliever Sergio Escalona stranded the two runners he inherited from Flande, and reliever Mike Zagurski followed by stranding the three runners he inherited from Escalona. The R-Phils had only five hits, but doubles by Quintin Berry and Neil Sellers lead to runs.
Kyle Drabek will start for the R-Phils on Monday, against the Portland Sea Dogs, in what could be his last start as a member of the Phillies' organization. As the parent club has a late start time, in Arizona, this is a good opportunity to tune in to the R-Phils' internet broadcast.
The Clearwater Threshers (A) will play a doubleheader against the St. Lucie Mets on Monday, as they complete Sunday's suspended game. Travis Cloyd and Michael Galen Cisco are expected to start for the Threshers.
Martinez is expected to make his next start for the Lehigh Valley IronPigs (AAA) on Friday.
RHP Tyson Brummett was promoted from Reading (AA) to Lehigh Valley. Brummett posted a 5.09 ERA in 15 starts. He was bumped to the R-Phils' bullpen, when LHP Yohan Flande was promoted from Clearwater. Brummett, in his last 10 appearances, has pitched 18 innings. He has allowed 15 runs (7.50 ERA), 26 hits, and 9 walks (6 whiffs).
So, why did Brummett get the promotion to the IronPigs? The LV rotation has been gutted by the parent club's recent roster moves. The current rotation consists of Carlos Carrasco, Gustavo Chacin, Brian Mazone, ?, and ??. Andrew Carpenter will take one of those slots, but he pitched for Philadelphia on Thursday and Friday, and is not immediately available to make a start. Reliever Jake Woods was forced into a spot start on Saturday, throwing 50 pitches, in three innings.
The Reading starting rotation currently has no viable promotion options. Vance Worley and Joe Savery have struggled as of late, and may be battling arm fatigue. Yohan Flande and Kyle Drabek both need more time at the AA level. Mike Stutes has pitched brilliantly recently, but, like the other four starters, his development is best-served by remaining at Reading.
Brummett's arm is still sufficiently stretched out to eat some innings, and he isn't really viewed as a prospect, at this point. Brummett will start for the IronPigs on Monday, facing Gwinnett's Tim Hudson, the rehabbing MLBer, who is expected to pitch four innings.
The Lehigh Valley IronPigs lost to the Gwinnett Braves on Sunday, 5-1. LV starter Brian Mazone had only allowed one run, through four innings, when the Braves got to him for four more in the fifth inning. Mazone fell to 0-3, with a 5.03 ERA. The FeHogs offense was punchless, with only six hits, all singles.
The Reading Phillies (AA) defeated the Bowie Baysox, 2-0. Yohan Flande had his best start for the R-Phils, throwing six and one-third scoreless innings (four hits, one walk/seven whiffs). Reliever Sergio Escalona stranded the two runners he inherited from Flande, and reliever Mike Zagurski followed by stranding the three runners he inherited from Escalona. The R-Phils had only five hits, but doubles by Quintin Berry and Neil Sellers lead to runs.
Kyle Drabek will start for the R-Phils on Monday, against the Portland Sea Dogs, in what could be his last start as a member of the Phillies' organization. As the parent club has a late start time, in Arizona, this is a good opportunity to tune in to the R-Phils' internet broadcast.
The Clearwater Threshers (A) will play a doubleheader against the St. Lucie Mets on Monday, as they complete Sunday's suspended game. Travis Cloyd and Michael Galen Cisco are expected to start for the Threshers.
Saturday, July 25, 2009
Transaction Action (7/25)
The Roy Halladay Watch continues, as the Phillies (reportedly) turned down the Blue Jays' offer of Halladay for Kyle Drabek, J.A. Happ, and Dominic Brown. The Phillies, reportedly, countered by offering a combination of players, including Carlos Carrasco, Jason Donald, and Lou Marson. The Phillies seem to be averse to dealing Drabek and Brown, as they should be.
RHP Clay Condrey was placed on the 15-Day DL, as his left oblique issues have returned. RHP Steven Register was recalled from Lehigh Valley (AAA).
Condrey would likely be available only every third game, if he stayed on the roster, and pitched through the pain. Is it better to have Condrey available every third game, or Register available every other game? Probably the former, but the Phils have to get Condrey in Every-Day Clay condition for the playoff/postseason run.
Register has a 2.88 ERA, in 25 AAA innings. In his last ten appearances for the FeHogs, he has only allowed one run (charged to his own record), in thirteen innings. But he's been supported by a .288 BABIP, and a LOB% of 83.3. His FIP is an unsightly 4.16. Register is a minor league journeyman, and is not a viable long-term option. (Not exactly a viable short-term option, either.
RHP Andrew Carpenter was optioned to Lehigh Valley. RHP Kyle Kendrick was recalled from Lehigh Valley. Carpenter has been a starter all season, and threw a combined thirty-seven pitches, in appearing in consecutive games. He would, likely, have been unavailable to pitch on Saturday and Sunday. The Phillies needed an available arm, with Rodrigo Lopez and Jamie Moyer getting the weekend starts, so Kendrick replaced Carpenter.
The Phillies should try to use this "opportunity" to see if Kendrick (and his change-up) are MLB-ready. He might not be a fit for the Phils' rotation, but he could gain some trade value, if he can start to get some MLB hitters out.
Will Gary Majewski ever be recalled from AAA?
When he starts outpitching mediocre journeymen, like Stephen Register. In his last ten AAA appearances, Majewski has pitched twelve and one-third innings. He has surrendered fifteen hits, seven walks (nine strikeouts), and six earned runs. Not impressive.
Why wasn't Cedrick Bowers recalled from AAA, rather than Register? Bowers would have been my choice, over Register. He hasn't pitched since July 22, so he would have been available on Saturday and Sunday. He has struggled a bit in his last three appearances, allowing five hits, four runs, and three walks (two strikeouts) in three and two-thirds innings. Bowers also has a 1.99 ERA/3.55 FIP, though he has been helped by a low .260 BABIP/82.8 LOB%.
The current combination of Phillies' bullpenners is not very impressive. Chan Ho Park and Ryan Madson might be the only trusted members of the current bullpen crew. Scott Eyre is best-suited for a LOOGY role, and closer Brad Lidge has struggled for much of the season. Tyler Walker, Steven Register, and Kyle Kendrick? Yikes. At least there are plenty of options for low leverage situations, though Manager Charlie Manuel uses Madson in that role a bit too frequently.
On the plus side, it's only late July, and all of the top relievers are expected to return in a few weeks. Injured starter Brett Myers could also return as a reliever, late in the regular season. The Phils need their starters to eat some serious innings, over the next couple of weeks.
Is the MLB Network's "The Pen" to blame for the vast number of injuries to Phillies' relievers this season? Probably not. But it might be prudent to allow the Mets to star in MLBN's 2010 production of "The Infield."
RHP Alex Concepcion was promoted to Lehigh Valley, to fill one of the recently-created bullpen openings. Concepcion had a 3.16 ERA, and a .96 WHIP, in 62.2 AA innings for Reading. He also had a .239 BABIP, and a 4.43 FIP. He's been more lucky, than good.
Chance Chapman has had a 3.29 ERA, and a 3.31 FIP, in 27.1 AA innings. He would also have been a good choice for the promotion to AAA.
RHP Tristan Crawford was promoted to Reading (AA), to replace Concepcion. Crawford joined the Phillies organization on July 22nd, the northpaw's 27th birthday, and only spen two days with Clearwater (A). He is a bit old for the A/AA level. Crawford was sold to the Phillies by the Grand Prairie AirHogs (Independent Leagues). In 2008, he pitched at AA for Washington, posting a 5.40 ERA, in 35 innings. However, he was plagued by a .392 BABIP, and posted a 3.40 FIP. Definitely worth giving a chance in the minors.
Pedro Martinez will start for the Clearwater Threshers (A), in his first rehab start as a member of the Phillies. Martinez faces the St. Lucie Mets, in a 4:05pm start. Tune in!
RHP Clay Condrey was placed on the 15-Day DL, as his left oblique issues have returned. RHP Steven Register was recalled from Lehigh Valley (AAA).
Condrey would likely be available only every third game, if he stayed on the roster, and pitched through the pain. Is it better to have Condrey available every third game, or Register available every other game? Probably the former, but the Phils have to get Condrey in Every-Day Clay condition for the playoff/postseason run.
Register has a 2.88 ERA, in 25 AAA innings. In his last ten appearances for the FeHogs, he has only allowed one run (charged to his own record), in thirteen innings. But he's been supported by a .288 BABIP, and a LOB% of 83.3. His FIP is an unsightly 4.16. Register is a minor league journeyman, and is not a viable long-term option. (Not exactly a viable short-term option, either.
RHP Andrew Carpenter was optioned to Lehigh Valley. RHP Kyle Kendrick was recalled from Lehigh Valley. Carpenter has been a starter all season, and threw a combined thirty-seven pitches, in appearing in consecutive games. He would, likely, have been unavailable to pitch on Saturday and Sunday. The Phillies needed an available arm, with Rodrigo Lopez and Jamie Moyer getting the weekend starts, so Kendrick replaced Carpenter.
The Phillies should try to use this "opportunity" to see if Kendrick (and his change-up) are MLB-ready. He might not be a fit for the Phils' rotation, but he could gain some trade value, if he can start to get some MLB hitters out.
Will Gary Majewski ever be recalled from AAA?
When he starts outpitching mediocre journeymen, like Stephen Register. In his last ten AAA appearances, Majewski has pitched twelve and one-third innings. He has surrendered fifteen hits, seven walks (nine strikeouts), and six earned runs. Not impressive.
Why wasn't Cedrick Bowers recalled from AAA, rather than Register? Bowers would have been my choice, over Register. He hasn't pitched since July 22, so he would have been available on Saturday and Sunday. He has struggled a bit in his last three appearances, allowing five hits, four runs, and three walks (two strikeouts) in three and two-thirds innings. Bowers also has a 1.99 ERA/3.55 FIP, though he has been helped by a low .260 BABIP/82.8 LOB%.
The current combination of Phillies' bullpenners is not very impressive. Chan Ho Park and Ryan Madson might be the only trusted members of the current bullpen crew. Scott Eyre is best-suited for a LOOGY role, and closer Brad Lidge has struggled for much of the season. Tyler Walker, Steven Register, and Kyle Kendrick? Yikes. At least there are plenty of options for low leverage situations, though Manager Charlie Manuel uses Madson in that role a bit too frequently.
On the plus side, it's only late July, and all of the top relievers are expected to return in a few weeks. Injured starter Brett Myers could also return as a reliever, late in the regular season. The Phils need their starters to eat some serious innings, over the next couple of weeks.
Is the MLB Network's "The Pen" to blame for the vast number of injuries to Phillies' relievers this season? Probably not. But it might be prudent to allow the Mets to star in MLBN's 2010 production of "The Infield."
RHP Alex Concepcion was promoted to Lehigh Valley, to fill one of the recently-created bullpen openings. Concepcion had a 3.16 ERA, and a .96 WHIP, in 62.2 AA innings for Reading. He also had a .239 BABIP, and a 4.43 FIP. He's been more lucky, than good.
Chance Chapman has had a 3.29 ERA, and a 3.31 FIP, in 27.1 AA innings. He would also have been a good choice for the promotion to AAA.
RHP Tristan Crawford was promoted to Reading (AA), to replace Concepcion. Crawford joined the Phillies organization on July 22nd, the northpaw's 27th birthday, and only spen two days with Clearwater (A). He is a bit old for the A/AA level. Crawford was sold to the Phillies by the Grand Prairie AirHogs (Independent Leagues). In 2008, he pitched at AA for Washington, posting a 5.40 ERA, in 35 innings. However, he was plagued by a .392 BABIP, and posted a 3.40 FIP. Definitely worth giving a chance in the minors.
Pedro Martinez will start for the Clearwater Threshers (A), in his first rehab start as a member of the Phillies. Martinez faces the St. Lucie Mets, in a 4:05pm start. Tune in!
Holliday, BABIP, Staches, and J-Bros Combine to Defeat Happ and Phils, 8-1
It took an unfortunate, and unlikely, confluence of events to serve Phillies' starter J.A. Happ his first loss. Matt Holliday in the Cardinals' lineup. The Jonas Brothers in dangerously close proximity to Citizens Bank Park. St.Louis' porn stache-heavy lineup. But, as easy as it is to blame the aforementioned horrors for Happ's defeat, it was one treacherous, malevolent entity, above all others, that caused the rookie southpaw's downfall. Happ, for perhaps the first time as a major leaguer, felt the cold, cruel effects of BABIP.
Through five innings, it was a typical Happ outing. The rookie had allowed only a single run, as it seemed every hard-hit ball he conceded found the leather of a teammate's, often acrobatic, glove. Happ trailed 1-0, as play entered the sixth inning, but a one-run deficit is nothing for the vaunted Phillies' offense. The Phils' bats would regress (progress?) to their vociferous mean, and the runs would flow, as does the mighty Schuylkill.
There was regression to the mean for the Phillies, but not the good, winning-baseball-games, type. Often, we observe BABIP as an incremental change in a pitcher's statline, over a number of games. On Friday night, BABIP opted to ravage Happ's once-pristine numbers in a savage sixth inning. Six hits, and four runs later, the Cardinals had blooped and dunked their way to a victory. Happ's ERA increased to 2.97 (from 2.68), and the lefty was fortunate that the ten hits charged to his record only resulted in five runs.
Tyler Walker relieved to start the seventh. In the absence of inherited runners who could be permitted to score, the sweat-drenched right-hander's ineffectiveness lead to the sullying of his own, personal ERA. Walker surrendered three hits and two walks in his inning of work, but somehow managed to allow only two runs. Andrew Carpenter made his return to MLB in the eighth, and gave up a flukish solo homer to Boston-reject Julio Lugo. Trailing by a score of 8-1 in the top of the ninth, with a Win Expectancy of a lofty .1%, Phils' Manager Charlie Manuel summoned setup man Ryan Madson. It was an inexplicable move to end an inexplicable game, as the Phillies' offense (10 LOB, 0 for 13 w/RISP) was never quite able to match the Cardinals' level of BABIP proficiency. With the Jonas Brothers in Pittsburgh, and Rodrigo Lopez on the mound on Saturday, the Phillies should have a better chance in the second game of the three-game series. Unless the Cardinals grow some more porn staches prior to the 4:05pm start time.
Through five innings, it was a typical Happ outing. The rookie had allowed only a single run, as it seemed every hard-hit ball he conceded found the leather of a teammate's, often acrobatic, glove. Happ trailed 1-0, as play entered the sixth inning, but a one-run deficit is nothing for the vaunted Phillies' offense. The Phils' bats would regress (progress?) to their vociferous mean, and the runs would flow, as does the mighty Schuylkill.
There was regression to the mean for the Phillies, but not the good, winning-baseball-games, type. Often, we observe BABIP as an incremental change in a pitcher's statline, over a number of games. On Friday night, BABIP opted to ravage Happ's once-pristine numbers in a savage sixth inning. Six hits, and four runs later, the Cardinals had blooped and dunked their way to a victory. Happ's ERA increased to 2.97 (from 2.68), and the lefty was fortunate that the ten hits charged to his record only resulted in five runs.
Tyler Walker relieved to start the seventh. In the absence of inherited runners who could be permitted to score, the sweat-drenched right-hander's ineffectiveness lead to the sullying of his own, personal ERA. Walker surrendered three hits and two walks in his inning of work, but somehow managed to allow only two runs. Andrew Carpenter made his return to MLB in the eighth, and gave up a flukish solo homer to Boston-reject Julio Lugo. Trailing by a score of 8-1 in the top of the ninth, with a Win Expectancy of a lofty .1%, Phils' Manager Charlie Manuel summoned setup man Ryan Madson. It was an inexplicable move to end an inexplicable game, as the Phillies' offense (10 LOB, 0 for 13 w/RISP) was never quite able to match the Cardinals' level of BABIP proficiency. With the Jonas Brothers in Pittsburgh, and Rodrigo Lopez on the mound on Saturday, the Phillies should have a better chance in the second game of the three-game series. Unless the Cardinals grow some more porn staches prior to the 4:05pm start time.
Friday, July 24, 2009
Bunts and Balks (7/24)
According to Andy Martino of the Philadelphia Inquirer, "baseball sources" are indicating that the Blue Jays want J.A. Happ, Kyle Drabek, and Dominic Brown, in exchange for Roy Halladay.
This contradicts with the "hockey sources", who indicated that the Blue Jays wanted Claude Giroux, Mike Richards, and Marc-Andre Bourdon.
Happ is expendable, but Drabek AND Brown? That's a pretty hefty price. But the Phils would be getting a year, and a few months, of one of the best pitchers in MLB. If the Phils would control Halladay for a few seasons, giving up Drabek and Brown would be a lot easier.
Hopefully, the Jays' price will come down a bit.
The Lehigh Valley IronPigs (AAA) lost to the Gwinnett Braves on Friday, 7-5. The FeHogs fell behind 3-0, but pulled to within 3-2, before start Carlos Carrasco surrendered a three-run homer with two outs in the sixth. Carrasco probably didn't help his dwindling trade value, by allowing six runs, in six innings (four hits, four walks/five strikeouts, one home run allowed). Michael Taylor went 1 for 3, with a walk and a stolen base, in the losing effort.
The Reading Phillies (AA) crushed the Bowie Baysox, 7-1. Starter Mike Stutes had another strong performance, allowing only one run, over seven and one-third innings (six hits, two walks/eight strikeouts, one home runs allowed). In July, Stutes has a 1.80 ERA, in five starts (thirty innings). In his last ten starts, Stutes has a 2.81 ERA, in fifty-seven and two-thirds innings. (Stutes hasn't allowed more than three earned runs in any of those ten starts.) Perhaps Stutes should be as highly regarded as rotation-mates Joe Savery and Vance Worley?
Neil Sellers was a single short of a cycle, as his 3 for 5 night raised his average to .325. Kevin Mahar increased his average to .323, with a 3 for 5 effort of his own.
The Clearwater Threshers (A) shut out the Charlotte Stone Crabs, 2-0.
Darren Byrd (five innings, four hits, one walk/five whiffs), Carlos Monasterios (two innings, one hit), Scott Mathieson (one inning, one hit, one walk/three strikeouts), and Michael Schwimer (one inning, one strikeout) combined for the shutout. Steve Susdorf was 0 for 3, dropping his average to .394. Dominic Brown was 1 for 3, and his average fell to .300. Brown reached base twice, and was picked off once, and caught stealing second the other time.
This contradicts with the "hockey sources", who indicated that the Blue Jays wanted Claude Giroux, Mike Richards, and Marc-Andre Bourdon.
Happ is expendable, but Drabek AND Brown? That's a pretty hefty price. But the Phils would be getting a year, and a few months, of one of the best pitchers in MLB. If the Phils would control Halladay for a few seasons, giving up Drabek and Brown would be a lot easier.
Hopefully, the Jays' price will come down a bit.
The Lehigh Valley IronPigs (AAA) lost to the Gwinnett Braves on Friday, 7-5. The FeHogs fell behind 3-0, but pulled to within 3-2, before start Carlos Carrasco surrendered a three-run homer with two outs in the sixth. Carrasco probably didn't help his dwindling trade value, by allowing six runs, in six innings (four hits, four walks/five strikeouts, one home run allowed). Michael Taylor went 1 for 3, with a walk and a stolen base, in the losing effort.
The Reading Phillies (AA) crushed the Bowie Baysox, 7-1. Starter Mike Stutes had another strong performance, allowing only one run, over seven and one-third innings (six hits, two walks/eight strikeouts, one home runs allowed). In July, Stutes has a 1.80 ERA, in five starts (thirty innings). In his last ten starts, Stutes has a 2.81 ERA, in fifty-seven and two-thirds innings. (Stutes hasn't allowed more than three earned runs in any of those ten starts.) Perhaps Stutes should be as highly regarded as rotation-mates Joe Savery and Vance Worley?
Neil Sellers was a single short of a cycle, as his 3 for 5 night raised his average to .325. Kevin Mahar increased his average to .323, with a 3 for 5 effort of his own.
The Clearwater Threshers (A) shut out the Charlotte Stone Crabs, 2-0.
Darren Byrd (five innings, four hits, one walk/five whiffs), Carlos Monasterios (two innings, one hit), Scott Mathieson (one inning, one hit, one walk/three strikeouts), and Michael Schwimer (one inning, one strikeout) combined for the shutout. Steve Susdorf was 0 for 3, dropping his average to .394. Dominic Brown was 1 for 3, and his average fell to .300. Brown reached base twice, and was picked off once, and caught stealing second the other time.
Cardinals' Series Preview
(On some blogs, an upcoming weekend series will be previewed, with potential matchups examined. Here, we go ahead and tell you what is going to happen, so that you can plan your weekend accordingly. The upcoming results are to be USED FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY, and contain spoilers.)
FRI: Phillies 3, Cardinals 1
Eventually, MLB is going to catch up with Phillies' starter J.A. Happ. His BABIP and LOB % will likely regress to the norm, and Happ will likely regress to fourth-starter numbers. But the inevitable downward spiral didn't begin on Friday, as Happ held St. Louis scoreless, in his eight-inning stint. In a brisk two-hour and twenty-two minute game, which left plenty of time to catch the set by The Jonas Brothers across the street, Happ scattered five hits. Home runs by Chase Utley and Raul Ibanez were enough to secure the victory.
SAT: Phillies 5, Cardinals 2
Not much was expected of veteran starter Rodrigo Lopez by the Phillies. A few six-inning, three-run outings, providing a satisfactory bridge to Pedro Martinez' ascension to the rotation, was all that the Phillies desired. However, Lopez has continued to be more-than-satisfactory, twirling his fourth consecutive strong start, in the Phillies' 5-1 victory. Shane Victorino paced the offense, with a three-hit performance, including a two-run, first-inning homer.
SUN: Phillies 6, Cardinals 5 (10)
With Paul Bako and Eric Bruntlett both in the starting lineup, and shaky starter Jamie Moyer on the mound, the signs for a Phillies' sweep seemed as ominous as the cloudy skies over CBP. The game started as expected, with an ineffective Moyer permitting five runs through five innings, and the Killer B's each contributing a pair of strikeouts. When the rains delayed proceedings in the bottom of the fifth, many teams would have accepted the loss, and cleared the bench for the remainder of the game. But not the WFCs.
Recently-recalled AAA starter-turned-MLB-reliever Andrew Carpenter took the ball, when play resumed after a fifty-eight minute rain delay. He refused to surrender the mound, pitching a startingly-impressive five scoreless innings. Carpenter's first major league victory came in an ineffective, rain-shortened outing against the Nationals. His second major league win was something of which Carpenter could be a little more proud.
The Phillies tied things up in the seventh, with a five-run rally, keyed by four two-out hits. A walk-off single in the tenth, by emergency catcher Jayson Werth, completed the Phils' sweep. Of course, the heroics by Carpenter and Werth, as well as the Moyer-induced ugliness, were all-but-forgotten, when the Phillies announced their newest trade acquisition after the win.
FRI: Phillies 3, Cardinals 1
Eventually, MLB is going to catch up with Phillies' starter J.A. Happ. His BABIP and LOB % will likely regress to the norm, and Happ will likely regress to fourth-starter numbers. But the inevitable downward spiral didn't begin on Friday, as Happ held St. Louis scoreless, in his eight-inning stint. In a brisk two-hour and twenty-two minute game, which left plenty of time to catch the set by The Jonas Brothers across the street, Happ scattered five hits. Home runs by Chase Utley and Raul Ibanez were enough to secure the victory.
SAT: Phillies 5, Cardinals 2
Not much was expected of veteran starter Rodrigo Lopez by the Phillies. A few six-inning, three-run outings, providing a satisfactory bridge to Pedro Martinez' ascension to the rotation, was all that the Phillies desired. However, Lopez has continued to be more-than-satisfactory, twirling his fourth consecutive strong start, in the Phillies' 5-1 victory. Shane Victorino paced the offense, with a three-hit performance, including a two-run, first-inning homer.
SUN: Phillies 6, Cardinals 5 (10)
With Paul Bako and Eric Bruntlett both in the starting lineup, and shaky starter Jamie Moyer on the mound, the signs for a Phillies' sweep seemed as ominous as the cloudy skies over CBP. The game started as expected, with an ineffective Moyer permitting five runs through five innings, and the Killer B's each contributing a pair of strikeouts. When the rains delayed proceedings in the bottom of the fifth, many teams would have accepted the loss, and cleared the bench for the remainder of the game. But not the WFCs.
Recently-recalled AAA starter-turned-MLB-reliever Andrew Carpenter took the ball, when play resumed after a fifty-eight minute rain delay. He refused to surrender the mound, pitching a startingly-impressive five scoreless innings. Carpenter's first major league victory came in an ineffective, rain-shortened outing against the Nationals. His second major league win was something of which Carpenter could be a little more proud.
The Phillies tied things up in the seventh, with a five-run rally, keyed by four two-out hits. A walk-off single in the tenth, by emergency catcher Jayson Werth, completed the Phils' sweep. Of course, the heroics by Carpenter and Werth, as well as the Moyer-induced ugliness, were all-but-forgotten, when the Phillies announced their newest trade acquisition after the win.
Transaction Action
Pedro Martinez will make his first (non-simulated) rehab start on Sunday, for the Clearwater Threshers (A). Game time is scheduled for 4:00pm, and can be followed via the visiting St. Lucie Mets' internet broadcast. Martinez' appearance should increase attendance at Clearwater's Bright House Field, on an afternoon when Wet N' Wacky Day was already expected to lead to large crowds. If you are fortunate enough to attend, please refrain from hurling water balloons at Martinez. Thanks in advance.
The Roy Halladay Deal hasn't been officially consummated, and Halladay is expected to make the start for Toronto on Friday night. The probability of Halladay being traded has ranged between 0 and 100%, over the past few days. Numerous teams are, reportedly, involved in trade talks, and countless top minor league prospects have been mentioned. Toronto GM J.P. Ricciardi tried to impose an arbitrary, pre-trade deadline, deadline of July 28th, but that doesn't seem to have panned out.
The Phillies still appear to be among the frontrunners, and the names Kyle Drabek, J.A. Happ, Lou Marson, Michael Taylor, Jason Donald, and Dominic Brown have all been bandied about.
If Amaro could get Halladay for Happ, Marson, and Donald, he should do the deal in a millisecond. Halladay turns the Phillies from World Series contender, to World Series favorite.
Phillies' reliever Chad Durbin was placed on the 15-day DL, after experiencing muscle pain in his lower back. Durbin has felt pain for the past month, but told neither his wife, nor pitching coach Rich Dubee. Over that time, Durbin had been responsible for five runs, over eight and two-thirds innings, including a scoreless, three-inning appearance on Monday. It appears injury, in addition to regression, has affected Durbin's recent results. Durbin is expected to return immediately, when the DL stint ends.
Phillies' reliever J.C. Romero was placed on the 15-day DL, with a strained left forearm. Romero will be eligible to return on August 4th. He made both his wife, and Rich Dubee, aware of the injury in a timely manner. Between this injury setback, his fifty-game suspension, and the fan incident in Tampa, this has not been the most successful season for Romero.
The Phillies recalled IronPigs (AAA) reliever Tyler Walker, and starter Andrew Carpenter, to fill the bullpen holes. Carpenter is stretched out, so it appears he will work in long relief, with Chan Ho Park pitching in late innings/high leverage situations. Park has pitched extremely well as a reliever. He would have been a great free agent pickup, if he had been signed as a $1-1.5 million/year reliever.
Walker is still not a good pitcher, and will probably be designated for assignment again, on August 4th.
The moves leave Scott Eyre as the only southpaw in the bullpen. Minor league lefties Sergio Escalona and Jack Taschner were considered for recall, but Escalona has pitched poorly recently, and Taschner has pitched like Taschner, all season.
The Lehigh Valley IronPigs (AAA) recalled reliever Pat Overholt from Reading (AA), and demoted Sergio Escalona to Reading. Escalona had a 10.50 ERA in six July innings. BABIP was not kind to him, as he allowed nine hits, and a .333 OBA. The right-handed Overholt, who has pitched in two AAA games this season, had a 2.16 ERA in eight and one-third July innings with the R-Phils.
Kyle Kendrick had a AAA start pushed by a day, for reasons that were not announced. There has been speculation that Kendrick was involved in a trade for Nationals' OF Josh Willingham, which fell through. My theory is that he was involved in a trade that fell through, but Arizona D-Backs' northpaw Doug Davis was the Phillies' intended target.
Scott Mathieson continues his attempt to return to MLB, with the Clearwater Threshers (A). Mathieson has made three appearances for the Threshers, throwing four scoreless innings, with four strikeouts (three hits, one walk.) He could be a cost-effective competitor for a Phillies bullpen spot, in 2010.
The Roy Halladay Deal hasn't been officially consummated, and Halladay is expected to make the start for Toronto on Friday night. The probability of Halladay being traded has ranged between 0 and 100%, over the past few days. Numerous teams are, reportedly, involved in trade talks, and countless top minor league prospects have been mentioned. Toronto GM J.P. Ricciardi tried to impose an arbitrary, pre-trade deadline, deadline of July 28th, but that doesn't seem to have panned out.
The Phillies still appear to be among the frontrunners, and the names Kyle Drabek, J.A. Happ, Lou Marson, Michael Taylor, Jason Donald, and Dominic Brown have all been bandied about.
If Amaro could get Halladay for Happ, Marson, and Donald, he should do the deal in a millisecond. Halladay turns the Phillies from World Series contender, to World Series favorite.
Phillies' reliever Chad Durbin was placed on the 15-day DL, after experiencing muscle pain in his lower back. Durbin has felt pain for the past month, but told neither his wife, nor pitching coach Rich Dubee. Over that time, Durbin had been responsible for five runs, over eight and two-thirds innings, including a scoreless, three-inning appearance on Monday. It appears injury, in addition to regression, has affected Durbin's recent results. Durbin is expected to return immediately, when the DL stint ends.
Phillies' reliever J.C. Romero was placed on the 15-day DL, with a strained left forearm. Romero will be eligible to return on August 4th. He made both his wife, and Rich Dubee, aware of the injury in a timely manner. Between this injury setback, his fifty-game suspension, and the fan incident in Tampa, this has not been the most successful season for Romero.
The Phillies recalled IronPigs (AAA) reliever Tyler Walker, and starter Andrew Carpenter, to fill the bullpen holes. Carpenter is stretched out, so it appears he will work in long relief, with Chan Ho Park pitching in late innings/high leverage situations. Park has pitched extremely well as a reliever. He would have been a great free agent pickup, if he had been signed as a $1-1.5 million/year reliever.
Walker is still not a good pitcher, and will probably be designated for assignment again, on August 4th.
The moves leave Scott Eyre as the only southpaw in the bullpen. Minor league lefties Sergio Escalona and Jack Taschner were considered for recall, but Escalona has pitched poorly recently, and Taschner has pitched like Taschner, all season.
The Lehigh Valley IronPigs (AAA) recalled reliever Pat Overholt from Reading (AA), and demoted Sergio Escalona to Reading. Escalona had a 10.50 ERA in six July innings. BABIP was not kind to him, as he allowed nine hits, and a .333 OBA. The right-handed Overholt, who has pitched in two AAA games this season, had a 2.16 ERA in eight and one-third July innings with the R-Phils.
Kyle Kendrick had a AAA start pushed by a day, for reasons that were not announced. There has been speculation that Kendrick was involved in a trade for Nationals' OF Josh Willingham, which fell through. My theory is that he was involved in a trade that fell through, but Arizona D-Backs' northpaw Doug Davis was the Phillies' intended target.
Scott Mathieson continues his attempt to return to MLB, with the Clearwater Threshers (A). Mathieson has made three appearances for the Threshers, throwing four scoreless innings, with four strikeouts (three hits, one walk.) He could be a cost-effective competitor for a Phillies bullpen spot, in 2010.
Bunts and Balks (7/23)
The Lehigh Valley IronPigs (AAA) avoided a series sweep by the Charlotte Knights, defeating Charlotte, 4-3, on Thursday. Starter Gustavo Chacin surrendered six hits and three walks, over six innings, but allowed only a pair runs. Michael Taylor, in his eighth game at the AAA level, went 3 for 4, with a pair of singles, and a solo homer. Taylor has a .946 OPS, in 28 ABs for the FeHogs.
In a story found only on PhPh, IronPigs reliever Jack Taschner surrendered uniform #33, when Michael Taylor was promoted. Taschner is, currently, wearing #8. This is inconvertible evidence that Taylor will be traded to Toronto, in The Halladay Deal. Taschner is involved in the decision-making process behind each Phillies transaction, and never would have given up #33, if he wasn't aware that the sacrifice would only be a short-term one.
The IronPigs send Carlos Carrasco to the mound on Friday, as they face the Gwinnett Braves on Pigs in Paradise Night. Has there been a "IronPigs in Space" Night? FeFe and Ferrous in spacesuits. An anti-grav Moon Bounce. J.J. Furmaniak and Terry Tiffee constructing a rocket, and attempting to propel Gary Majewski into space. There are infinite possibilities...
The Reading Phillies (AA) were whitewashed by the Altoona Curve on Thursday, 8-0. The R-Phils fell behind 8-0 after four innings, but held the Curve off the scoreboard in their final four at bats. Seven of the runs were scored with two outs. Starter Joe Savery was charged with all eight runs, surviving only four innings, and increasing his ERA by .53, to 4.36. Savery has struggled mightily in July, permitting twenty-three runs (thirty-five hits, eleven walks/sixteen strikeouts) in twenty-two and two-thirds innings. Savery has a 9.13 ERA, in four July starts.
The Clearwater Threshers (A) lost to the Charlotte Knights, 4-1. Starter Drew Naylor gave up four runs, over six innings (five hits, three walks/six strikeouts), in taking his ninth loss.
Steve Susdorf had one of the four Thresher hits, a double, in his 1 for 4 effort. Susdorf's average dropped to .406.
In a story found only on PhPh, IronPigs reliever Jack Taschner surrendered uniform #33, when Michael Taylor was promoted. Taschner is, currently, wearing #8. This is inconvertible evidence that Taylor will be traded to Toronto, in The Halladay Deal. Taschner is involved in the decision-making process behind each Phillies transaction, and never would have given up #33, if he wasn't aware that the sacrifice would only be a short-term one.
The IronPigs send Carlos Carrasco to the mound on Friday, as they face the Gwinnett Braves on Pigs in Paradise Night. Has there been a "IronPigs in Space" Night? FeFe and Ferrous in spacesuits. An anti-grav Moon Bounce. J.J. Furmaniak and Terry Tiffee constructing a rocket, and attempting to propel Gary Majewski into space. There are infinite possibilities...
The Reading Phillies (AA) were whitewashed by the Altoona Curve on Thursday, 8-0. The R-Phils fell behind 8-0 after four innings, but held the Curve off the scoreboard in their final four at bats. Seven of the runs were scored with two outs. Starter Joe Savery was charged with all eight runs, surviving only four innings, and increasing his ERA by .53, to 4.36. Savery has struggled mightily in July, permitting twenty-three runs (thirty-five hits, eleven walks/sixteen strikeouts) in twenty-two and two-thirds innings. Savery has a 9.13 ERA, in four July starts.
The Clearwater Threshers (A) lost to the Charlotte Knights, 4-1. Starter Drew Naylor gave up four runs, over six innings (five hits, three walks/six strikeouts), in taking his ninth loss.
Steve Susdorf had one of the four Thresher hits, a double, in his 1 for 4 effort. Susdorf's average dropped to .406.
Tuesday, July 21, 2009
Lopez, Ibanez Lead Phils to 9th Straight Win
Who needs Roy Halladay, when you have Rodrigo Lopez? Three starts ago, Lopez was best known for sharing a first name with the Crazy Hot Dog Vendor's ostrich. After picking up his second win as a Phillie, in the WFCs 10-1 thrashing of the Chicago Cubs, Lopez is still best known for sharing a first name with the Crazy Hot Dog Vendor's ostrich. The veteran northpaw isn't likely to continue putting up these kind of starts (ERA: 2.60), but if he can keep his ERA below 4, Jamie Moyer might be the veteran vacating the rotation in August. Lopez, Moyer, and Pedro Martinez may not have much of a postseason impact, but they are important to the Phillies' playoff qualification chances. The three vets will also be receiving the same WFC II rings, as rotation stalwarts Cole Hamels, soon-to-be-acquired Roy Halladay, and Joe Blanton, if the Phils can continue to play at this level.
Lopez surrendered only one run in six innings, harmlessly scattering five hits and three walks, before leaving for a pinch-hitter. Chad Durbin entered the game in the seventh, charged with protecting a 9-1 lead. This was the perfect low-leverage situation for the erratic reliever, and he succeeded in finishing the game. Durbin was awarded a save for his scoreless, three-inning outing, retiring nine of ten Cubs' batters. Durbin only required thirty-three pitches. Phillies' Manager Charlie Manuel has been oft-criticized for his bullpen utilization. On some nights, Manuel may have worked through multiple pitchers, in order to get those last nine outs. Despite a nine-run lead, setup man Ryan Madson and closer Brad Lidge may have appeared, wasting bullets better-saved for higher leverage situations. But not on Monday night. Durbin ate the non-Lopez innings, and the remainder of the 'pen was saved for another day.
The ninth consecutive Phillies win was never really in doubt, thanks to another impressive offensive outburst. The Phils jumped to a quick first-inning lead, on another home run by Raul Ibanez, of the two-out, three-run, variety. Carlos Ruiz hit a two-run blast in the second inning, and the Cubs never truly threatened. Ryan Howard completed the scoring, with a solo homer in the eighth inning.
The Phillies go for their tenth in a row on Tuesday, sending Joe Blanton to the slab. Blanton has had two strong July starts (14.2 IP, 1 ER), after posting a 3.62 ERA in 37.1 May innings. He has pitched like a solid #3 starter. Rich Harden, Chicago's starter, has followed up a 4.24 May ERA (23.1 IP), with a 7.62 ERA in 13 July innings. Looks like a good matchup for the Phils, who still lead the NL East by 6.5 games.
Lopez surrendered only one run in six innings, harmlessly scattering five hits and three walks, before leaving for a pinch-hitter. Chad Durbin entered the game in the seventh, charged with protecting a 9-1 lead. This was the perfect low-leverage situation for the erratic reliever, and he succeeded in finishing the game. Durbin was awarded a save for his scoreless, three-inning outing, retiring nine of ten Cubs' batters. Durbin only required thirty-three pitches. Phillies' Manager Charlie Manuel has been oft-criticized for his bullpen utilization. On some nights, Manuel may have worked through multiple pitchers, in order to get those last nine outs. Despite a nine-run lead, setup man Ryan Madson and closer Brad Lidge may have appeared, wasting bullets better-saved for higher leverage situations. But not on Monday night. Durbin ate the non-Lopez innings, and the remainder of the 'pen was saved for another day.
The ninth consecutive Phillies win was never really in doubt, thanks to another impressive offensive outburst. The Phils jumped to a quick first-inning lead, on another home run by Raul Ibanez, of the two-out, three-run, variety. Carlos Ruiz hit a two-run blast in the second inning, and the Cubs never truly threatened. Ryan Howard completed the scoring, with a solo homer in the eighth inning.
The Phillies go for their tenth in a row on Tuesday, sending Joe Blanton to the slab. Blanton has had two strong July starts (14.2 IP, 1 ER), after posting a 3.62 ERA in 37.1 May innings. He has pitched like a solid #3 starter. Rich Harden, Chicago's starter, has followed up a 4.24 May ERA (23.1 IP), with a 7.62 ERA in 13 July innings. Looks like a good matchup for the Phils, who still lead the NL East by 6.5 games.
Monday, July 20, 2009
Bunts and Balks (7/20)
Brett Myers may be able to return to the Phillies in mid/late August, as his rehab from hip surgery is progressing well. Myers would be able to help in a relief role only. (He would not have enough time left in the season, to build up his arm sufficiently to rejoin the rotation.) A low-90s MPH northpaw to add into the setup mix? Sounds good, but might not bode well for Chad Durbin...
The Lehigh Valley IronPigs (AAA) fell to the Charlotte Knights on Monday, 1-0. The FeHogs fell back under the .500 mark, at 47-48, failing in their attempt to go over the .500 mark for the first time ever. The game was scoreless, into the bottom of the ninth, when Gary Majewski (0-5) surrendered the game's only run. A superb start by Brian Mazone (six scoreless frames, three hits, two walks/three whiffs) was wasted. Michael Taylor was 1 for 4 (double), and is batting .176.
The Reading Phillies (AA) lost to the Altoona Curve, 8-2.
Vance Worley struggled for the third consecutive start, permitting eight runs (four and one-third innings, ten hits, one walk/five whiffs, one HR allowed), and increasing his ERA to 4.81. Worley has surrendered 21 runs, and 32 hits, in his last 3 starts (15 IP, 12.60 ERA). His BABIP of .291 may be regressing to the mean. Worley pitched only 69 innings in 2008, and 110 so far this season. The jump in innings may also be having an effect on Worley. He might benefit from skipping a turn in the rotation.
The Clearwater Threshers (A) lost to the Sarasota Reds, 3-1.
The Sarasota Reds, owners of a .424 winning percentage, have won two of three from the Threshers, with one game remaining in the series. Jon Velazquez took the loss, permitting three runs in six innings (six hits, three walks/two whiffs, one home run allowed). Dominic Brown went 3 for 4 (three singles), improving his average to .315. Steve Susdorf was 1 for 4, and is now batting a feeble .389.
The Lehigh Valley IronPigs (AAA) fell to the Charlotte Knights on Monday, 1-0. The FeHogs fell back under the .500 mark, at 47-48, failing in their attempt to go over the .500 mark for the first time ever. The game was scoreless, into the bottom of the ninth, when Gary Majewski (0-5) surrendered the game's only run. A superb start by Brian Mazone (six scoreless frames, three hits, two walks/three whiffs) was wasted. Michael Taylor was 1 for 4 (double), and is batting .176.
The Reading Phillies (AA) lost to the Altoona Curve, 8-2.
Vance Worley struggled for the third consecutive start, permitting eight runs (four and one-third innings, ten hits, one walk/five whiffs, one HR allowed), and increasing his ERA to 4.81. Worley has surrendered 21 runs, and 32 hits, in his last 3 starts (15 IP, 12.60 ERA). His BABIP of .291 may be regressing to the mean. Worley pitched only 69 innings in 2008, and 110 so far this season. The jump in innings may also be having an effect on Worley. He might benefit from skipping a turn in the rotation.
The Clearwater Threshers (A) lost to the Sarasota Reds, 3-1.
The Sarasota Reds, owners of a .424 winning percentage, have won two of three from the Threshers, with one game remaining in the series. Jon Velazquez took the loss, permitting three runs in six innings (six hits, three walks/two whiffs, one home run allowed). Dominic Brown went 3 for 4 (three singles), improving his average to .315. Steve Susdorf was 1 for 4, and is now batting a feeble .389.
Sunday, July 19, 2009
Phils Sweep Marlins: A Crazy, Random Happenstance?
J.A. Happ improved his season record to 7-0, in Sunday's 5-0 win over the Marlins. Another seven scoreless frames were added to Happ's increasingly impressive stat-line. His ERA has dropped to 2.68. In his last six starts, he has pitched 43 innings, allowing only 8 runs (1.67 ERA). Happ is the leading NL Rookie of the Year candidate, at least in the Pitchers/Non-Panda Division. At what point do we decide that Happ is evolving into Tom Glavine, and that we are not just witnessing another Ruffin-esque mirage? Well, Happ getting his FIP under 4.00 would be a good start. But you can't argue with Happ's results this season, or the fact that the Phillies are not a first-place team without them.
Happ did have some help on Sunday, as the Marlins left twelve men on base, RISP'ing a perfectly imperfect 0 for 12. Happ short-circuited a gaggle of Marlins' rallies, often with the help of the fielders behind him. (With the peculiar exception of typically slick-fielding 3B Pedro Feliz, whose two errors improved the Marlins' chances of scoring, and artificially inflated Happ's pitch count). The Pete Happy-extended innings pushed Happ's pitch count to 107, through seven innings, leading to a premature exit for the rookie southpaw. Phillies' Manager Charlie Manuel was able to involve four relievers in the final six Marlins outs, as Ryan Madson, J.C. Romero, Scott Eyre, and Brad Lidge combined to finish the shutout.
The Phillies' bats did most of their damage in a three-run second inning, as some poor base-running and situational hitting adversely affected their overall offensive output. Jimmy Rollins went 3 for 5, finishing the contest a homer short of a cycle. (Rollins has a .377 July average, with a 1.062 OPS this month. He has improved his average from .205, to .236, in his last fifteen games.) Raul Ibanez had a pair of RBI. The Phillies' six-through-eight hitters combined to go 0 for 12, stranding a combined eleven runners. Happ's performance on the mound, as well as his key two-out, rally-inducing single in the second inning, were sufficient to help increase the Phillies' winning streak to eight games.
Besides Pedro Feliz' aberrantly hideous performance, and catcher Carlos Ruiz non-aberrant hitless performance, there wasn't too much failure for the Phils on Sunday. Well, except for the fact that Eric Bruntlett was given a start, and permitted four plate appearances. How does this kind of thing happen? Giving Ryan Howard the day off was fine, particularly given his inability to hit southpaws. Not moving Raul Ibanez from left field to first base, and installing right-handed John Mayberry in left for the day? Also understandable, as Ibanez hasn't played a lot of 1B recently, and is coming off an injury. (Manuel indicated that he needs to "keep an eye on Ibanez' groin." Thanks for that, Charlie.) Despite their left-handedness, and their mediocrity afield, Greg Dobbs and Matt Stairs would have been better replacement options for Howard. (Given Bruntlett's offensive numbers, Dobbs or Stairs could bat right-handed and still be superior replacement options.) Was this a failure of roster construction, or of personnel management? Perhaps some of each of those two columns. However, the move did not cost the Phils in the win column, so the timing may have been just right...
The Phillies, now winners of eight consecutive, and twelve of thirteen, games, have charged to a 6.5 game division lead. They face the Cubs on Monday night, with Rodrigo Lopez facing Ted Lilly in a Phillies-unfriendly pitching matchup. The Phillies (and J.A. Happ) can't keep winning forever. Longtime Phillies fans have Ruffin and Combs-shaped scars that bear this truth out. Perhaps the Phils have knowledge of a truth greater than BABIP. A truth deeper than that of regression to the mean. Probably not, but let's continue to enjoy the ride. It's been an incredible couple of weeks for Phillies fans. Not as incredible as the last couple weeks of play in 2008, but strangely reminiscent.
Happ did have some help on Sunday, as the Marlins left twelve men on base, RISP'ing a perfectly imperfect 0 for 12. Happ short-circuited a gaggle of Marlins' rallies, often with the help of the fielders behind him. (With the peculiar exception of typically slick-fielding 3B Pedro Feliz, whose two errors improved the Marlins' chances of scoring, and artificially inflated Happ's pitch count). The Pete Happy-extended innings pushed Happ's pitch count to 107, through seven innings, leading to a premature exit for the rookie southpaw. Phillies' Manager Charlie Manuel was able to involve four relievers in the final six Marlins outs, as Ryan Madson, J.C. Romero, Scott Eyre, and Brad Lidge combined to finish the shutout.
The Phillies' bats did most of their damage in a three-run second inning, as some poor base-running and situational hitting adversely affected their overall offensive output. Jimmy Rollins went 3 for 5, finishing the contest a homer short of a cycle. (Rollins has a .377 July average, with a 1.062 OPS this month. He has improved his average from .205, to .236, in his last fifteen games.) Raul Ibanez had a pair of RBI. The Phillies' six-through-eight hitters combined to go 0 for 12, stranding a combined eleven runners. Happ's performance on the mound, as well as his key two-out, rally-inducing single in the second inning, were sufficient to help increase the Phillies' winning streak to eight games.
Besides Pedro Feliz' aberrantly hideous performance, and catcher Carlos Ruiz non-aberrant hitless performance, there wasn't too much failure for the Phils on Sunday. Well, except for the fact that Eric Bruntlett was given a start, and permitted four plate appearances. How does this kind of thing happen? Giving Ryan Howard the day off was fine, particularly given his inability to hit southpaws. Not moving Raul Ibanez from left field to first base, and installing right-handed John Mayberry in left for the day? Also understandable, as Ibanez hasn't played a lot of 1B recently, and is coming off an injury. (Manuel indicated that he needs to "keep an eye on Ibanez' groin." Thanks for that, Charlie.) Despite their left-handedness, and their mediocrity afield, Greg Dobbs and Matt Stairs would have been better replacement options for Howard. (Given Bruntlett's offensive numbers, Dobbs or Stairs could bat right-handed and still be superior replacement options.) Was this a failure of roster construction, or of personnel management? Perhaps some of each of those two columns. However, the move did not cost the Phils in the win column, so the timing may have been just right...
The Phillies, now winners of eight consecutive, and twelve of thirteen, games, have charged to a 6.5 game division lead. They face the Cubs on Monday night, with Rodrigo Lopez facing Ted Lilly in a Phillies-unfriendly pitching matchup. The Phillies (and J.A. Happ) can't keep winning forever. Longtime Phillies fans have Ruffin and Combs-shaped scars that bear this truth out. Perhaps the Phils have knowledge of a truth greater than BABIP. A truth deeper than that of regression to the mean. Probably not, but let's continue to enjoy the ride. It's been an incredible couple of weeks for Phillies fans. Not as incredible as the last couple weeks of play in 2008, but strangely reminiscent.
Bunts and Balks (7/19)
The Lehigh Valley IronPigs (AAA) beat the Rochester Red Wings on Sunday, 3-2. Incredible game! Awesome start by Drew (a.k.a. Andrew) Carpenter: one run allowed in seven innings (three hits, two walks/eight whiffs, one solo HR). Walkoff ninth-inning double by David Newhan. Technical difficulties on the internet broadcast made hearing FeHogs reliever Stephen Register's blowing of the save impossible.
The FeHogs completed a four-game series sweep of the Red Wings, moved to the .500 mark (47-47!), and remained in a franchise-high Third Place!
The Reading Phillies (AA) FINALLY beat the New Britain Rock Cats, 9-1.
The R-Phils had lost all six of the previous encounters with the Stone Felines this season. Starter Mike Stutes pitched five and one-third innings, and permitted five hits and five walks, striking out three. Stutes' ERA was saved by reliever Alex Concepcion, who stranded the two baserunners he inherited in the sixth inning. Concepcion threw three and two-thirds innings, surrendering only a solo home run. Concepcion received his second save, despite the fact that the R-Phils won by eight runs. (However, the tying run was on deck when Concepcion entered the game, and he did finish the game. Therefore, I am going to go ahead and approve the awarding of a save here.)
The R-Phils offense was paced by Neil Sellers (4 for 4, .317 avg.), Tim Kennelly (2 for 5, HR, 3 RBI), and Jeremy Slayden (HR, 2 RBI, .369 avg.).
The Clearwater Threshers (A) shut out the Sarasota Reds, 4-0.
Darren Byrd, an 18th round draft choice in 2005, threw six scoreless innings (four hits, one walk/three whiffs) for the win. Scott Mathieson retired all three batters he faced in the ninth inning, two on strikeouts. Dominic Brown went 2 for 2, with a pair of RBI. Steve Susdorf was 0 for 4, reducing his average to a measly .396.
Despite the impending additions of Roy Halladay and Pedro Martinez to the parent club's pitching staff, the Phillies still need to be on the lookout for additionals upgrade options.
The Colorado Rockies have a northpaw in AAA, whom the Phillies should consider acquiring. He has posted a 2.30 ERA (3.36 FIP), with a 3.25 K/BB in 43 innings (7 starts). He would cost the Phillies only the major-league minimum, in additional salary costs. Ruben Amaro is, likely, already in the process of acquiring SkySox hurler Adam Eaton.
The FeHogs completed a four-game series sweep of the Red Wings, moved to the .500 mark (47-47!), and remained in a franchise-high Third Place!
The Reading Phillies (AA) FINALLY beat the New Britain Rock Cats, 9-1.
The R-Phils had lost all six of the previous encounters with the Stone Felines this season. Starter Mike Stutes pitched five and one-third innings, and permitted five hits and five walks, striking out three. Stutes' ERA was saved by reliever Alex Concepcion, who stranded the two baserunners he inherited in the sixth inning. Concepcion threw three and two-thirds innings, surrendering only a solo home run. Concepcion received his second save, despite the fact that the R-Phils won by eight runs. (However, the tying run was on deck when Concepcion entered the game, and he did finish the game. Therefore, I am going to go ahead and approve the awarding of a save here.)
The R-Phils offense was paced by Neil Sellers (4 for 4, .317 avg.), Tim Kennelly (2 for 5, HR, 3 RBI), and Jeremy Slayden (HR, 2 RBI, .369 avg.).
The Clearwater Threshers (A) shut out the Sarasota Reds, 4-0.
Darren Byrd, an 18th round draft choice in 2005, threw six scoreless innings (four hits, one walk/three whiffs) for the win. Scott Mathieson retired all three batters he faced in the ninth inning, two on strikeouts. Dominic Brown went 2 for 2, with a pair of RBI. Steve Susdorf was 0 for 4, reducing his average to a measly .396.
Despite the impending additions of Roy Halladay and Pedro Martinez to the parent club's pitching staff, the Phillies still need to be on the lookout for additionals upgrade options.
The Colorado Rockies have a northpaw in AAA, whom the Phillies should consider acquiring. He has posted a 2.30 ERA (3.36 FIP), with a 3.25 K/BB in 43 innings (7 starts). He would cost the Phillies only the major-league minimum, in additional salary costs. Ruben Amaro is, likely, already in the process of acquiring SkySox hurler Adam Eaton.
Not Innocuous
As a result of the postponement of Saturday night's game, the Phillies made some seemingly innocuous adjustments to their pitching probables for the week. The probables are, as follows:
Monday: Rodrigo Lopez
Tuesday: Joe Blanton (rained out on Saturday- threw only 24 pitches)
Wednesday: Jamie Moyer (five days rest)
Thursday: Cole Hamels (left Friday's game early, due to rain- threw 68 pitches- five days rest)
Friday: J.A. Happ (four days rest)
Saturday: Rodrigo Lopez (four days rest)
Sunday: Joe Blanton (four days rest)
There are a number of things we can deduce from these adjustments:
-Joe Blanton has been too effective, recently, for the Phillies to skip his start.
-The Phillies' upcoming, game-a-day, schedule was not conducive to skipping any starters (Moyer?) in the rotation.
-Despite Hamels' rain-shortened appearance, they did not want to bring the southpaw back early. They also chose to pitch Moyer on one extra day's rest, rather than starting Hamels on his regular day, and giving Moyer two extra days' rest. As a result, Hamels will not have to pitch in Wednesday's afternoon game, which is usually a good thing.
-The Phillies don't want Rodrigo Lopez to wait any longer to make his third Phillies start- they want to evaluate Lopez' MLB ability, before Pedro Martinez arrives on the scene to replace him.
-Slotting Lopez into the third slot in the rotation indicates that the Phils project Pedro Martinez as their third starter in the postseason. (Martinez will take Lopez' place in August.) Joe Blanton will be in the fourth spot during the playoffs. Jamie Moyer will watch the postseason from the stands, utilizing tickets graciously provided by the Phillies' organization.
-J.A. Happ continues pitching on the same day as Roy Halladay, who is, temporarily, still with Toronto. Happ will be included in The Halladay Deal, with each respective hurler being seamlessly inserted into their new club's rotation.
-Roy Halladay will be slotted as the #2 in the Phillies' rotation, as a result of #1 starter Cole Hamels' postseason pedigree.
-The Phillies have determined that Happ's strong results in 2009 are a mirage. The Phils have examined Happ's BABIP and LOB %, as well as various proprietary statistics that have not yet fallen into the public consciousness, in coming to this conclusion.
-As a result of the inclusion of J.A. Happ in The Halladay Deal, the Phillies will be able to keep northpaw prospect Kyle Drabek in their organization. Drabek's sub-zero FIP performance in 2014 will be in a Phillies' uniform. (The MLB Phillies, if that wasn't clear.)
Monday: Rodrigo Lopez
Tuesday: Joe Blanton (rained out on Saturday- threw only 24 pitches)
Wednesday: Jamie Moyer (five days rest)
Thursday: Cole Hamels (left Friday's game early, due to rain- threw 68 pitches- five days rest)
Friday: J.A. Happ (four days rest)
Saturday: Rodrigo Lopez (four days rest)
Sunday: Joe Blanton (four days rest)
There are a number of things we can deduce from these adjustments:
-Joe Blanton has been too effective, recently, for the Phillies to skip his start.
-The Phillies' upcoming, game-a-day, schedule was not conducive to skipping any starters (Moyer?) in the rotation.
-Despite Hamels' rain-shortened appearance, they did not want to bring the southpaw back early. They also chose to pitch Moyer on one extra day's rest, rather than starting Hamels on his regular day, and giving Moyer two extra days' rest. As a result, Hamels will not have to pitch in Wednesday's afternoon game, which is usually a good thing.
-The Phillies don't want Rodrigo Lopez to wait any longer to make his third Phillies start- they want to evaluate Lopez' MLB ability, before Pedro Martinez arrives on the scene to replace him.
-Slotting Lopez into the third slot in the rotation indicates that the Phils project Pedro Martinez as their third starter in the postseason. (Martinez will take Lopez' place in August.) Joe Blanton will be in the fourth spot during the playoffs. Jamie Moyer will watch the postseason from the stands, utilizing tickets graciously provided by the Phillies' organization.
-J.A. Happ continues pitching on the same day as Roy Halladay, who is, temporarily, still with Toronto. Happ will be included in The Halladay Deal, with each respective hurler being seamlessly inserted into their new club's rotation.
-Roy Halladay will be slotted as the #2 in the Phillies' rotation, as a result of #1 starter Cole Hamels' postseason pedigree.
-The Phillies have determined that Happ's strong results in 2009 are a mirage. The Phils have examined Happ's BABIP and LOB %, as well as various proprietary statistics that have not yet fallen into the public consciousness, in coming to this conclusion.
-As a result of the inclusion of J.A. Happ in The Halladay Deal, the Phillies will be able to keep northpaw prospect Kyle Drabek in their organization. Drabek's sub-zero FIP performance in 2014 will be in a Phillies' uniform. (The MLB Phillies, if that wasn't clear.)
Nothing Happened
Saturday night's Phillies-Marlins game was postponed by rain. Joe Blanton and the Phillies hadn't gotten off to a good start, and were trailing Florida, 2-0, in the second inning. Marlins' ace Josh Johnson was in overpowering form. The Phillies may have been fortunate to have the game postponed, after a long rain delay. They might have a better chance when (if?) the game is made up, likely in the form of a late September doubleheader.
There's no way of knowing what would have happened, if the game had resumed after the rain delay. Well, unless you keep reading...
-Joe Blanton and Josh Johnson would have been done for the night
-Chan Ho Park, and a parade of Marlins' relievers, match scoreless innings, through the seventh inning
-A two-run Jayson Werth blast in the top of the eighth ties the score
-Ryan Madson retires the Marlins in order in the bottom of the eighth
-With two outs in the top of the ninth, and the bases loaded, Phillies' catcher Gabor Paul Bako II is allowed to bat. He grounds into a game-winning E-4. (This replacement-level blogger rails against this non-move, in the postgame blog post.)
-Brad Lidge picks up the save in the ninth, facing only five batters (fly out, walk, sacrifice bunt-turned-error by Lidge, walk, 5-2-3 DP)
-after the game, John Mayberry is optioned to Lehigh Valley (AAA). Southpaw Sergio Escalona is recalled to "bolster the (depleted) bullpen."
-Escalona faces five batters in ten days, before being optioned back to AAA
-Top right-handed pinch-hitter Eric Bruntlett plays in every game played in the next ten days
So, despite the fact that they would eventually have won the Saturday night game, it turns out that the Phillies are better off that the game was never actually resumed.
The Phils finish their series with Florida on Sunday. J.A. Happ gets the start for the Phils, hoping that BABIP doesn't begin to work against him. There could be more rain delays on Sunday, so we could see a lot of the bullpens again. For rain delay viewing, the Red Sox-Blue Jays game, featuring Jon Lester and future Phillies' #2 starter Roy Halladay, is recommended. The internet broadcast of the Reading Phillies' (Mike Stutes + Crazy Hot Dog Vendor!) game would be an excellent supplementary option.
There's no way of knowing what would have happened, if the game had resumed after the rain delay. Well, unless you keep reading...
-Joe Blanton and Josh Johnson would have been done for the night
-Chan Ho Park, and a parade of Marlins' relievers, match scoreless innings, through the seventh inning
-A two-run Jayson Werth blast in the top of the eighth ties the score
-Ryan Madson retires the Marlins in order in the bottom of the eighth
-With two outs in the top of the ninth, and the bases loaded, Phillies' catcher Gabor Paul Bako II is allowed to bat. He grounds into a game-winning E-4. (This replacement-level blogger rails against this non-move, in the postgame blog post.)
-Brad Lidge picks up the save in the ninth, facing only five batters (fly out, walk, sacrifice bunt-turned-error by Lidge, walk, 5-2-3 DP)
-after the game, John Mayberry is optioned to Lehigh Valley (AAA). Southpaw Sergio Escalona is recalled to "bolster the (depleted) bullpen."
-Escalona faces five batters in ten days, before being optioned back to AAA
-Top right-handed pinch-hitter Eric Bruntlett plays in every game played in the next ten days
So, despite the fact that they would eventually have won the Saturday night game, it turns out that the Phillies are better off that the game was never actually resumed.
The Phils finish their series with Florida on Sunday. J.A. Happ gets the start for the Phils, hoping that BABIP doesn't begin to work against him. There could be more rain delays on Sunday, so we could see a lot of the bullpens again. For rain delay viewing, the Red Sox-Blue Jays game, featuring Jon Lester and future Phillies' #2 starter Roy Halladay, is recommended. The internet broadcast of the Reading Phillies' (Mike Stutes + Crazy Hot Dog Vendor!) game would be an excellent supplementary option.
Bunts and Balks (7/18)
The Lehigh Valley IronPigs (AAA) swept their Saturday doubleheader from the Rochester Red Wings, winning 7-5, and 6-3. The FeHogs have boldly ventured where no FeHog has ever ventured before: Third Place! Their sweep-ensuring strategy? Score six runs in each fourth inning, and allow less than six runs in each game.
In the opener, FeHogs' starter Gustavo Chacin surrendered five runs in five and one-third innings (six hits, two walks/one strikeout, two HR allowed), but the FeHogs scored seven runs, and the game lasted only seven innings, so Chacin received his fourth win. Jack Taschner picked up save with a scoreless seventh inning, a crisp twenty-three pitch/twelve-strike outing.
In the second game, IronPigs' starter Carlos Carrasco permitted three runs, over six, mostly strong, innings. He allowed two home runs, scoring all three of the runs, but only six total hits (zero walks/eight strikeouts!).
Michael Taylor went 2 for 4, including his first AAA home run. Expect to see him on the postseason roster. For the parent club.
Drew Carpenter will try to get the FeHogs back to .500, tonight at 5:35pm. Tune in!
The Reading Phillies (AA) were pounded by the New Britain Rock Cats, 11-3. The R-Phils have had no luck with the Rock Cats this season. Six losses for the R-Phils. A .349 avg. for the Rock Cats. To put things into a useful context, the Rock Cats, at least when playing the R-Phils, are the Sea Cows of the Eastern League.
R-Phils starter Joe Savery lost for only the second time (in fourteen decisions), surrendering six runs in five innings (eight hits, five walks (!)/five strikeouts, one HR allowed), and increasing his ERA to 3.83. (The R-Phils had Yohan Flande, Kyle Drabek, and Joe Savery lined up to start the Stone Felines' series, and still couldn't pick up a victory.)
Tyson Brummett pitched an inning in relief, allowing a run, and boosting his ERA to 4.96. After losing his rotation spot to Flande, Brummett remains in danger of losing his roster spot to Crazy Hot Dog Vendor.
(Tom McCarthy-esque Transition Alert!)
In Crazy Hot Dog Vendor News, today is Crazy Hot Dog Vendor Bank Day! So, we've got a grudge match against the Pestiferously Heinous Rock Cats, CHDV banks, Dollar Hot Dogs, Postgame Kids Run the Bases, and Mike Stutes on the mound. There is no way this game doesn't sell out.
The Clearwater Threshers lost to the Sarasota Reds, 4-3, in twelve (not-long) innings. (The twelve innings only took three hours and twenty-three minutes to play.)
A tough loss, but let's look at some positives, and focus on process over results:
-the Threshers did not play the Brevard County Manatees (i.e. Sea Cows of Doom)
-Dominic Brown and Freddy Galvis are back in the lineup
-Steve Susdorf had two more hits (though the 2 for 5 night lowered his avg. to only .414)
-Northpaw Drew Naylor had a superb start: seven innings, two runs (one earned), six hits, zero walks/one strikeout, one HR allowed
-Drew Naylor's middle name is "Roy", meaning the number of syllables in his first and middle names sums to the number of syllables in his surname. (Phillies' great James Paul Bunning also could make that claim.)
-Carlos Monasterios pitched two scoreless innings, followed by Michael Schwimmer, who threw two scoreless frames (no hits, no walks, five whiffs!) of his own
-the Threshers don't face the Pernicious Sea Cows again, until August 25th
In the opener, FeHogs' starter Gustavo Chacin surrendered five runs in five and one-third innings (six hits, two walks/one strikeout, two HR allowed), but the FeHogs scored seven runs, and the game lasted only seven innings, so Chacin received his fourth win. Jack Taschner picked up save with a scoreless seventh inning, a crisp twenty-three pitch/twelve-strike outing.
In the second game, IronPigs' starter Carlos Carrasco permitted three runs, over six, mostly strong, innings. He allowed two home runs, scoring all three of the runs, but only six total hits (zero walks/eight strikeouts!).
Michael Taylor went 2 for 4, including his first AAA home run. Expect to see him on the postseason roster. For the parent club.
Drew Carpenter will try to get the FeHogs back to .500, tonight at 5:35pm. Tune in!
The Reading Phillies (AA) were pounded by the New Britain Rock Cats, 11-3. The R-Phils have had no luck with the Rock Cats this season. Six losses for the R-Phils. A .349 avg. for the Rock Cats. To put things into a useful context, the Rock Cats, at least when playing the R-Phils, are the Sea Cows of the Eastern League.
R-Phils starter Joe Savery lost for only the second time (in fourteen decisions), surrendering six runs in five innings (eight hits, five walks (!)/five strikeouts, one HR allowed), and increasing his ERA to 3.83. (The R-Phils had Yohan Flande, Kyle Drabek, and Joe Savery lined up to start the Stone Felines' series, and still couldn't pick up a victory.)
Tyson Brummett pitched an inning in relief, allowing a run, and boosting his ERA to 4.96. After losing his rotation spot to Flande, Brummett remains in danger of losing his roster spot to Crazy Hot Dog Vendor.
(Tom McCarthy-esque Transition Alert!)
In Crazy Hot Dog Vendor News, today is Crazy Hot Dog Vendor Bank Day! So, we've got a grudge match against the Pestiferously Heinous Rock Cats, CHDV banks, Dollar Hot Dogs, Postgame Kids Run the Bases, and Mike Stutes on the mound. There is no way this game doesn't sell out.
The Clearwater Threshers lost to the Sarasota Reds, 4-3, in twelve (not-long) innings. (The twelve innings only took three hours and twenty-three minutes to play.)
A tough loss, but let's look at some positives, and focus on process over results:
-the Threshers did not play the Brevard County Manatees (i.e. Sea Cows of Doom)
-Dominic Brown and Freddy Galvis are back in the lineup
-Steve Susdorf had two more hits (though the 2 for 5 night lowered his avg. to only .414)
-Northpaw Drew Naylor had a superb start: seven innings, two runs (one earned), six hits, zero walks/one strikeout, one HR allowed
-Drew Naylor's middle name is "Roy", meaning the number of syllables in his first and middle names sums to the number of syllables in his surname. (Phillies' great James Paul Bunning also could make that claim.)
-Carlos Monasterios pitched two scoreless innings, followed by Michael Schwimmer, who threw two scoreless frames (no hits, no walks, five whiffs!) of his own
-the Threshers don't face the Pernicious Sea Cows again, until August 25th
Saturday, July 18, 2009
Manuel and Phillies Win Marathon Battle of Tactics
There was plenty of time for heroics in Friday night's marathon with the Florida Marlins. Four hours and five minutes of playing time, to be exact. Phillies' starter Cole Hamels pitched well, allowing only a single run, in his five inning outing. Unfortunately, a seventy-eight minute rain delay ended Hamels' night. Chase Utley (two-run homer), Jayson Werth (RBI single), and Pedro Feliz (RBI double) had given Hamels a 4-1 lead.
Philadelphia relievers Chan Ho Park, Ryan Madson, J.C. Romero, and Chad Durbin were knocked around by the Marlins, who tied the score at four, in the bottom of the eighth. The umpires also contributed, as all four of them missed a balk call, which would have given the Phillies a 5-4 lead in the top of the ninth. The score remained tied, as play entered the top of the twelfth. That's when Phillies' Manager Charlie Manuel outmaneuvered the Marlins, ensuring the Phils' victory.
Jimmy Rollins lead off the twelfth with a single. Manuel decided to play for a single run, and .305-hitting Shane Victorino sacrificed Rollins to second. With Brad Lidge (7.09 ERA) the last Phillies reliever remaining, the Phils would only need one run to win. (The probability that Lidge would allow at least one run in the bottom of the inning was only about 91%.)
The Mighty Paul Bako (.214 average) was lurking just two batters away, so the Marlins opted to pitch to the .312-hitting Chase Utley, with first base open. (Bako had been, ingeniously, inserted into the fifth spot in the order, as part of Manuel's second double switch of the game.) Five hours after Utley had homered, the All-Star second sacker gave the Phils the lead again, by stroking an RBI single. After Ryan Howard grounded out, Silver Slugger-candidate Paul Bako came to the plate, with an important insurance run on second base. With All-Star Jayson Werth on deck (20 HR), there was no way the Marlins were going to take their chances with Bako's bat, and the backstop was intentionally walked. Werth followed with an RBI single, but the damage would likely had been much worse, if the Marlins hadn't taken the bat out of The Mighty Bako's hands. The two-run lead was plenty for Phils' closer Brad Lidge, who permitted only a single run (two walks). Lidge's crisp, twenty-eight pitch frame ended with the tying run on third base.
The Phillies increased their division lead to six games, a season-high advantage. The Phillies' Joe Blanton will be opposed by Marlins' ace Josh Johnson, in the third game of the series, on Saturday. Johnson has a 2.94 FIP, and has recorded quality starts in nine, of his last ten, outings. He does have a low .288 BABIP, and a high 77.1 LOB %. Johnson is due for some adversity, and the Phillies' bats are a good candidate to get Johnson's inevitable regression rolling.
Philadelphia relievers Chan Ho Park, Ryan Madson, J.C. Romero, and Chad Durbin were knocked around by the Marlins, who tied the score at four, in the bottom of the eighth. The umpires also contributed, as all four of them missed a balk call, which would have given the Phillies a 5-4 lead in the top of the ninth. The score remained tied, as play entered the top of the twelfth. That's when Phillies' Manager Charlie Manuel outmaneuvered the Marlins, ensuring the Phils' victory.
Jimmy Rollins lead off the twelfth with a single. Manuel decided to play for a single run, and .305-hitting Shane Victorino sacrificed Rollins to second. With Brad Lidge (7.09 ERA) the last Phillies reliever remaining, the Phils would only need one run to win. (The probability that Lidge would allow at least one run in the bottom of the inning was only about 91%.)
The Mighty Paul Bako (.214 average) was lurking just two batters away, so the Marlins opted to pitch to the .312-hitting Chase Utley, with first base open. (Bako had been, ingeniously, inserted into the fifth spot in the order, as part of Manuel's second double switch of the game.) Five hours after Utley had homered, the All-Star second sacker gave the Phils the lead again, by stroking an RBI single. After Ryan Howard grounded out, Silver Slugger-candidate Paul Bako came to the plate, with an important insurance run on second base. With All-Star Jayson Werth on deck (20 HR), there was no way the Marlins were going to take their chances with Bako's bat, and the backstop was intentionally walked. Werth followed with an RBI single, but the damage would likely had been much worse, if the Marlins hadn't taken the bat out of The Mighty Bako's hands. The two-run lead was plenty for Phils' closer Brad Lidge, who permitted only a single run (two walks). Lidge's crisp, twenty-eight pitch frame ended with the tying run on third base.
The Phillies increased their division lead to six games, a season-high advantage. The Phillies' Joe Blanton will be opposed by Marlins' ace Josh Johnson, in the third game of the series, on Saturday. Johnson has a 2.94 FIP, and has recorded quality starts in nine, of his last ten, outings. He does have a low .288 BABIP, and a high 77.1 LOB %. Johnson is due for some adversity, and the Phillies' bats are a good candidate to get Johnson's inevitable regression rolling.
Bunts and Balks (7/17)
Clay Condrey was activated from the DL, taking the roster spot of Tyler Walker (DFA'd). Walker was right choice to be jettisoned, as his strength was permitting inherited runners to score. It wouldn't be a surprise to see Walker pass through waivers unclaimed, and join Jack Taschner in Lehigh Valley (AAA).
Condrey's activation returns the seven-man bullpen to the state in which it should have opened the season. Hopefully, The Pen will remain healthy for awhile.
The Lehigh Valley IronPigs (AAA) were rained out on Friday, and will host the Rochester Red Wings in a doubleheader on Saturday. Gustavo Chacin and Carlos Carrasco will make the starts for the FeHogs. The IronPigs do not plan to wear their tuxedo uniform jerseys, despite the fact that they are undefeated while wearing them. The tuxedos were auctioned off for charity. I'm hoping Brian Mazone's tuxedo jersey winds up on eBay, where it will be within my grasp.
The IronPigs' roster (on their website, and in the 7/17 Game Notes) lists Michael Taylor and Jack Taschner as both wearing #33. Who is really wearing #33? Stay tuned for future developments...
The Reading Phillies (AA) lost to the New Britain Rock Cats, 6-4. Kyle Drabek lost for the first time (in six decisions), since joining the the R-Phils. Drabek surrendered six runs (five earned) in six innings, on eight hits (one walk/one whiff). Perhaps throwing to newly-recalled Tim Kennelly, rather than injured backstop Tuffy Gosewisch, had Drabek off his game? (It was, probably, just a bad BABIP night.) Kennelly, Jeremy Slayden, and Brian Stavisky each hit solo home runs.
The Clearwater Threshers (A) were destroyed by the Brevard County Manatees, 12-5. The Sea Cows are just too good. On the plus side, the Threshers outscored the Manatees, 4-1, after falling behind, 11-1 (after four innings). Dominic Brown went 2 for 4, and Steve Susdorf (.415 avg.) hit a grand slam. Starter Michael Galen Cisco was charged with eight runs (seven earned) in two and one-third innings (seven hits, one walk/one whiff).
Scott Mathieson pitched two scoreless innings of relief, in his first appearance of the season for the Threshers.
Condrey's activation returns the seven-man bullpen to the state in which it should have opened the season. Hopefully, The Pen will remain healthy for awhile.
The Lehigh Valley IronPigs (AAA) were rained out on Friday, and will host the Rochester Red Wings in a doubleheader on Saturday. Gustavo Chacin and Carlos Carrasco will make the starts for the FeHogs. The IronPigs do not plan to wear their tuxedo uniform jerseys, despite the fact that they are undefeated while wearing them. The tuxedos were auctioned off for charity. I'm hoping Brian Mazone's tuxedo jersey winds up on eBay, where it will be within my grasp.
The IronPigs' roster (on their website, and in the 7/17 Game Notes) lists Michael Taylor and Jack Taschner as both wearing #33. Who is really wearing #33? Stay tuned for future developments...
The Reading Phillies (AA) lost to the New Britain Rock Cats, 6-4. Kyle Drabek lost for the first time (in six decisions), since joining the the R-Phils. Drabek surrendered six runs (five earned) in six innings, on eight hits (one walk/one whiff). Perhaps throwing to newly-recalled Tim Kennelly, rather than injured backstop Tuffy Gosewisch, had Drabek off his game? (It was, probably, just a bad BABIP night.) Kennelly, Jeremy Slayden, and Brian Stavisky each hit solo home runs.
The Clearwater Threshers (A) were destroyed by the Brevard County Manatees, 12-5. The Sea Cows are just too good. On the plus side, the Threshers outscored the Manatees, 4-1, after falling behind, 11-1 (after four innings). Dominic Brown went 2 for 4, and Steve Susdorf (.415 avg.) hit a grand slam. Starter Michael Galen Cisco was charged with eight runs (seven earned) in two and one-third innings (seven hits, one walk/one whiff).
Scott Mathieson pitched two scoreless innings of relief, in his first appearance of the season for the Threshers.
Friday, July 17, 2009
Moyer and 'Pen Silence Marlins, 4-0
Part of the job of a Manager is to put his charges in position to succeed. Perhaps Phillies' Manager Charlie Manuel was partially to blame for Jamie Moyer's 5.99 first-half ERA. Manuel has persisted in starting Moyer every fifth day, rather than simply once per series, every time the Phils match up with the Washington Nationals and Florida Marlins. That plan would net Moyer about a dozen starts, which would be a bit pricey at $6.5 million/season. But at least we could skip the steady procession of six-inning, four-run starts posted by the veteran hurler. Luckily for the Phillies, the Marlins were on the schedule for Thursday night.
Moyer was simply brilliant, surrendering just a single hit, in seven innings. Moyer required only ninety-four pitches (sixty-seven strikes), retiring all but two of the twenty-three batters he faced. It was easily Moyer's best performance of the season, as well as one of the best by a Phillies' starting pitcher. Moyer reduced his ERA from 5.99 to 5.58, and had little problem shutting down the Florida bats, as usual. The veteran is now 13-2 against the Marlins, including 8-0 on the road.
Moyer got some support from the bullpen, as Ryan Madson (eighth inning) and J.C. Romero (ninth) each retired the side in order. The bats also came through, with all of the runs coming on home runs. Raul Ibanez hit a pair of homers, giving him twenty-four for the season. Ryan Howard hit his twenty-third homer of the season, and the two-hundredth of his career. The Howard homer set an MLB record, as the slugger became the fastest to reach the two-hundred home run mark, attaining the level in a mere six hundred and fifty-eight games. Charlie Manuel kept Gabor Paul Bako II and Eric Bruntlett off the field, and the Phillies had an easy, relaxing victory.
The Phillies will pursue their third consecutive win of the "easy, relaxing" variety, with ace Cole Hamels facing the Marlins on Friday. Thursday's win increased the Phils' division lead over the second place Marlins to five games. With Pedro Martinez (and Roy Halladay?) soon to bolster the Phillies' rotation, and the Phils' offense continuing to produce, the division advantage should reach double digits in the near future. Especially if Manuel is able to keep Bako out of the lineup.
Moyer was simply brilliant, surrendering just a single hit, in seven innings. Moyer required only ninety-four pitches (sixty-seven strikes), retiring all but two of the twenty-three batters he faced. It was easily Moyer's best performance of the season, as well as one of the best by a Phillies' starting pitcher. Moyer reduced his ERA from 5.99 to 5.58, and had little problem shutting down the Florida bats, as usual. The veteran is now 13-2 against the Marlins, including 8-0 on the road.
Moyer got some support from the bullpen, as Ryan Madson (eighth inning) and J.C. Romero (ninth) each retired the side in order. The bats also came through, with all of the runs coming on home runs. Raul Ibanez hit a pair of homers, giving him twenty-four for the season. Ryan Howard hit his twenty-third homer of the season, and the two-hundredth of his career. The Howard homer set an MLB record, as the slugger became the fastest to reach the two-hundred home run mark, attaining the level in a mere six hundred and fifty-eight games. Charlie Manuel kept Gabor Paul Bako II and Eric Bruntlett off the field, and the Phillies had an easy, relaxing victory.
The Phillies will pursue their third consecutive win of the "easy, relaxing" variety, with ace Cole Hamels facing the Marlins on Friday. Thursday's win increased the Phils' division lead over the second place Marlins to five games. With Pedro Martinez (and Roy Halladay?) soon to bolster the Phillies' rotation, and the Phils' offense continuing to produce, the division advantage should reach double digits in the near future. Especially if Manuel is able to keep Bako out of the lineup.
Thursday, July 16, 2009
Bunts and Balks (7/16)
Pedro Martinez will begin his minor league rehab on Monday, when he reports to the Clearwater Threshers (A). There isn't a set plan for his rehab journey, but he should be with the Phillies by August, barring setbacks.
Rodrigo Lopez is expected to make his next start, on Monday. Lopez is a few starts away from being replaced by Martinez. If Lopez pitches well, he could stay in the rotation (at Jamie Moyer's expense?), or be moved to the Phils' bullpen (much more likely).
Clay Condrey is ready to return to the Phillies. Condrey will, probably, be activated by the end of the week. The Phillies could option John Mayberry back to AAA, to free up a spot for Condrey, and return to an eight-man bullpen. Or they could designate reliever Tyler Walker for assignment. Given the Phils' wish to rest Raul Ibanez more frequently, and their need for as right-handed bench bat, Walker's DFAing seems more likely. Walker has a 1.64 ERA with the Phils, but his 4.79 FIP is more indicative of his performance.
On 80's Night in Lehigh Valley, the IronPigs (AAA) defeated the Rochester Red Wings, 5-4. Kyle Kendrick pitched eight strong innings, allowing two runs on five hits (zero walks/four whiffs). Kendrick remained undefeated, when wearing a tuxedo jersey, and improved his overall record to 6-5 (3.42 ERA). LF Michael Taylor, in his AAA debut, batted third, and went 0 for 3 (walk, run scored).
The Reading Phillies (AA) lost to the New Britain Rock Cats, 5-2. The Rock Cats, not to be confused with the New Hampshire Fisher Cats, had 14 hits. The R-Phils were fortunate that the Felines of Stone had 15 LOB. R-Phils' starter Yohan Flande continued to struggle at the AA level, losing for the second time, in two decisions. Flande surrendered five runs, in five innings (nine hits, zero walks/three strikeouts), and raised his ERA to 7.58. DH Jeremy Slayden went 2 for 4, with a solo homer, improving his average to .368.
The Clearwater Threshers (A) were defeated by the Brevard County Manatees, 4-3.
Without Dominic Brown, the Threshers don't match up well with the Sea Cows. Steve Susdorf went 1 for 3, dropping his average to .410. Threshers' starter Tyler Cloyd, who took Yohan Flande's spot in the Clearwater rotation, fell to 0-3, with a 5.48 ERA. Cloyd permitted three earned runs (one unearned), in six and two-thirds innings (seven hits, three walks/two whiffs).
Rodrigo Lopez is expected to make his next start, on Monday. Lopez is a few starts away from being replaced by Martinez. If Lopez pitches well, he could stay in the rotation (at Jamie Moyer's expense?), or be moved to the Phils' bullpen (much more likely).
Clay Condrey is ready to return to the Phillies. Condrey will, probably, be activated by the end of the week. The Phillies could option John Mayberry back to AAA, to free up a spot for Condrey, and return to an eight-man bullpen. Or they could designate reliever Tyler Walker for assignment. Given the Phils' wish to rest Raul Ibanez more frequently, and their need for as right-handed bench bat, Walker's DFAing seems more likely. Walker has a 1.64 ERA with the Phils, but his 4.79 FIP is more indicative of his performance.
On 80's Night in Lehigh Valley, the IronPigs (AAA) defeated the Rochester Red Wings, 5-4. Kyle Kendrick pitched eight strong innings, allowing two runs on five hits (zero walks/four whiffs). Kendrick remained undefeated, when wearing a tuxedo jersey, and improved his overall record to 6-5 (3.42 ERA). LF Michael Taylor, in his AAA debut, batted third, and went 0 for 3 (walk, run scored).
The Reading Phillies (AA) lost to the New Britain Rock Cats, 5-2. The Rock Cats, not to be confused with the New Hampshire Fisher Cats, had 14 hits. The R-Phils were fortunate that the Felines of Stone had 15 LOB. R-Phils' starter Yohan Flande continued to struggle at the AA level, losing for the second time, in two decisions. Flande surrendered five runs, in five innings (nine hits, zero walks/three strikeouts), and raised his ERA to 7.58. DH Jeremy Slayden went 2 for 4, with a solo homer, improving his average to .368.
The Clearwater Threshers (A) were defeated by the Brevard County Manatees, 4-3.
Without Dominic Brown, the Threshers don't match up well with the Sea Cows. Steve Susdorf went 1 for 3, dropping his average to .410. Threshers' starter Tyler Cloyd, who took Yohan Flande's spot in the Clearwater rotation, fell to 0-3, with a 5.48 ERA. Cloyd permitted three earned runs (one unearned), in six and two-thirds innings (seven hits, three walks/two whiffs).
Sub-Major Transactions (Taylor Promoted to AAA)
Outfielder Michael Taylor was promoted to the Lehigh Valley IronPigs (AAA).
The Phillies' top position prospect OPS'd .982, and wOBA'd .440, with the Reading Phillies (AA). The 23 year-old could be with the parent club in September, and competing for a roster spot next spring. Or, he could be traded in the Halladay Deal. (He should be on the "Untouchables List", with Kyle Drabek and Jason Knapp. But should anyone be untouchable, when dealing for Halladay?)
The Reading Phillies (AA) placed catcher Tuffy Gosewisch on the DL, with a left hand fracture. C/OF/1B Tim Kennelly was recalled from Clearwater (A).
Gosewisch is expected to miss 4-6 weeks. The 22 year-old, Australian-born Kennelly, a Florida State League All-Star, will split catching duties with Kevin Nelson.
Pitcher Scott Mathieson was promoted to Clearwater, from the GCL Phillies. Mathieson continues the journey back to the majors, where he threw 37 innings for the 2006 Phillies. Mathieson was a top Phillies' prospect, before arm woes (TJ surgery in 2007) set him back.
Threshers' starter Julian Sampson has been placed on the 7-Day Disabled List.
Sampson pitched well in Lakewood (low-A) last season (3.99 FIP), but has struggled with Clearwater (5.46 FIP).
Top prospects Dominic Brown and Freddy Galvis are rehabbing for the GCL Phillies (Rookie), and should return to the Threshers this week. Finally, some support in the lineup for Steve Susdorf!
Top prospect Jason Knapp of the Lakewood Phillies was placed on the 7-Day DL.
Knapp is expected to miss a couple of weeks with "arm fatigue." The 18 year-old northpaw, is one of the organization's untouchables (hopefully).
The Phillies' top position prospect OPS'd .982, and wOBA'd .440, with the Reading Phillies (AA). The 23 year-old could be with the parent club in September, and competing for a roster spot next spring. Or, he could be traded in the Halladay Deal. (He should be on the "Untouchables List", with Kyle Drabek and Jason Knapp. But should anyone be untouchable, when dealing for Halladay?)
The Reading Phillies (AA) placed catcher Tuffy Gosewisch on the DL, with a left hand fracture. C/OF/1B Tim Kennelly was recalled from Clearwater (A).
Gosewisch is expected to miss 4-6 weeks. The 22 year-old, Australian-born Kennelly, a Florida State League All-Star, will split catching duties with Kevin Nelson.
Pitcher Scott Mathieson was promoted to Clearwater, from the GCL Phillies. Mathieson continues the journey back to the majors, where he threw 37 innings for the 2006 Phillies. Mathieson was a top Phillies' prospect, before arm woes (TJ surgery in 2007) set him back.
Threshers' starter Julian Sampson has been placed on the 7-Day Disabled List.
Sampson pitched well in Lakewood (low-A) last season (3.99 FIP), but has struggled with Clearwater (5.46 FIP).
Top prospects Dominic Brown and Freddy Galvis are rehabbing for the GCL Phillies (Rookie), and should return to the Threshers this week. Finally, some support in the lineup for Steve Susdorf!
Top prospect Jason Knapp of the Lakewood Phillies was placed on the 7-Day DL.
Knapp is expected to miss a couple of weeks with "arm fatigue." The 18 year-old northpaw, is one of the organization's untouchables (hopefully).
Season in Review/Preview- Pitchers Edition (Now with Arbitrary Grades!)
Welcome to the Season in Review/Preview- Pitchers Edition!
Starting Pitchers
Joe Blanton
Some numbers: 103.1 IP, 4.44 ERA, 2.76 K/BB, .310 BABIP, 79.4% LOB, 4.74 FIP
Some commentary: Blanton has improved substantially, after a horrific start. BABIP is starting to work in his favor. His first half was mediocre, at best, but he could have a much better second half.
Arbitrary Grade: C-
Cole Hamels
Some numbers: 98 IP, 4.87 ERA, 4.72 K/BB, .348 BABIP, 71.3% LOB, 3.90 FIP
Some commentary: Hamels wasn't mentally/physically ready at the beginning of the season, and got off to a bad start. He has only shown glimpses of his aceability, and has also been unlucky, at times. He might be feeling the effects of the 269 innings he pitched in 2008. He should improve, but not to the levels the Phillies expect from their top starter.
Arbitrary Grade: C+
Jamie Moyer
Some numbers: 94.2 IP, 5.99 ERA, 2.12 K/BB, .307 BABIP, 71.7% LOB, 5.84 FIP
Some commentary: Moyer has been terrible. Signing him for two years looks like a very poor decision by the Phillies. His results indicate that he should be removed from the rotation, but his contract situation, and his poor suitability for a relief role, have kept him in the rotation. He seems unlikely to remain in the rotation all season, and seems unlikely to be on the postseason roster.
Arbitrary Grade: D-
J. A. Happ
Some numbers: 87 IP, 2.90 ERA, 1.91 K/BB, .242 BABIP, 85.9% LOB, 4.51 FIP
Some commentary: Happ has been the Phillies' most effective starter. If Happ had started the season in the rotation, the Phillies' record would, likely, have been better. Happ threw 166 innings in 2008, so the Phillies should try to keep him under 190 innings for the 2009 season. (Starting the season in the bullpen helped, in that area.) Happ's peripheral stats (K/BB, FIP, BABIP, LOB%) indicate that he has been very fortunate, and a sizeable regression may be impending. But Happ is graded based on his results, which have been superb.
Arbitrary Grade: A-
Brett Myers (injured, likely out for season- may return as a reliever in Sept.)
Some numbers: 63.2 IP, 4.66 ERA, 2.30 K/BB, .268 BABIP, 86.1% LOB, 6.22 FIP
Some commentary: Myers was surrendering homers by the bushel, before his injury. As mediocre as his numbers were, his peripherals indicated that they were likely to get worse. Re-signing Myers as a free agent would not be advisable.
Arbitrary Grade: D+
Chan Ho Park
Some numbers: (25 appearances, 7 starts) 59.0 IP, 5.49 ERA, 1.92 K/BB, .336 BABIP, 65.5% LOB, 4.00 FIP
Some commentary: Signing Park for $2.5 million, and giving him a spot in the starting rotation, was ill-conceived. After a horrendous performance as a starter (7.29 ERA), Park has been satisfactory (3.16 ERA) as a reliever. He has had some poor luck, which appears to be starting to even out. If the Phillies' bats hadn't saved them from several losses in Park's starts, the Phils would not be in first place.
Arbitrary Grade: C- (overall), F (as a starter)
Antonio Bastardo (currently on DL)
Some numbers: (5 starts) 22.2 IP, 6.75 ERA, 2.38 K/BB, .329 BABIP, 59.2% LOB, 5.01 FIP
Some commentary: Bastardo may have been promoted before he was ready. He was overpowering at times, unlucky at times, and out of control at times.
Arbitrary Grade: C-
Rodrigo Lopez (currently on DL)
Some numbers: (2 starts) 11.1 IP, 3.18 ERA, 4.00 K/BB, .315 BABIP, 69.2% LOB, 2.18 FIP
Some commentary: A journeyman northpaw, Lopez looked good in his two starts. He might put up better numbers than Jamie Moyer, if given an extended chance in the rotation. He probably won't get that chance, now that Pedro Martinez has been signed, Lopez may be used out of the bullpen, where he might be a better option than Tyler Walker.
Arbitrary Grade: INC
Relievers
Ryan Madson
Some numbers: 44.2 IP, 3.02 ERA, 2.75 K/BB, .293 BABIP, 79.0% LOB, 3.40 FIP
Some commentary: Madson struggled when used in the closer role, but has excelled as a setup man.
Arbitrary Grade: B+
Chad Durbin
Some numbers: 44.1 IP, 4.47 ERA, 1.54 K/BB, .268 BABIP, 73.5% LOB, 5.25 FIP
Some commentary: Durbin has been lucky to put up mediocre numbers. He needs to be the fifth option in the bullpen, but was forced into too many higher leverage situations.
Arbitrary Grade: D+
Clay Condrey (currently on DL)
Some numbers: 34 IP, 3.71 ERA, 1.57 K/BB, .268 BABIP, 76.1% LOB, 4.54 FIP
Some commentary: Condrey has also been lucky, and may be bound for regression. He needs to be used in low leverage situations.
Arbitrary Grade: C-
Brad Lidge
Some numbers: 32 IP, 7.03 ERA, 1.95 K/BB, .375 BABIP, 67.6 % LOB, 5.88 FIP, 2.25 HR/9 (career: .86), 19.5% HR/FB (career: 10.9%)
Some commentary: Lidge has struggled with injury problems. Lidge has struggled with horribly bad luck, particularly with home run balls. His fortune seems bound to improve. But he is graded on his results, and there is only one possible grade for those results.
Arbitrary Grade: F
Jack Taschner (was optioned to AAA)
Some numbers: 27.2 IP, 5.20 ERA, .85 K/BB, .337 BABIP, 73.4% LOB, 5.63 FIP
Some commentary: If Taschner was signed at the major league minimum, it would have been a poor move. Taschner's salary was 835K, and he cost the Phillies a suitable backup catcher (Ronny Paulino, ot Jason Jaramillo) in trade. Taschner was so ineffective that Charlie Manuel barely used him. It was inexplicable that he consumed a roster spot for as long as he did. His ability to put baserunners on was evidenced by his 1.95 WHIP. He did a lot of damage to the ERAs of his bullpen mates.
Arbitrary Grade: F
Scott Eyre
Some numbers: (27 games) 16.2 IP, 2.16 ERA, 1.20 K/BB, .239 BABIP, 89.6% LOB, 5.17 FIP
Some commentary: Eyre has been extremely lucky, and regression seems inevitable. The Phillies need to be certain to keep Eyre in LOOGY situations.
Arbitrary Grade: B+
J.C. Romero (suspended for first 50 games of season)
Some numbers: (17 games) 14.1 IP, 3.14 ERA, .92 K/BB, .234 BABIP, 85.6% LOB, 6.27 FIP
Some commentary: Romero has been luckier, than good. Allowing so many baserunners may catch up to him, as it did in his time with Boston. The Phillies need him to split the 8th inning with Madson, and to pitch in mid-high leverage situations. His peripherals indicate those situations may prove dangerous.
Arbitrary Grade: B
Tyler Walker
Some numbers: (9 games) 11 IP, 1.64 ERA, 5.00 K/BB, .235 BABIP, 100% LOB, 4.79 FIP
Some commentary: Walker should have taken Taschner's roster spot early in the season. Walker has been rather lucky, and has regularly damaged the ERAs of his teammates. He should be the least-used member of the bullpen.
Arbitrary Grade: C
Sergio Escalona (currently in AAA)
Some numbers: (6 games) 6.1 IP, 2.84 ERA, 2.00 K/BB, .265 BABIP, 75% LOB, 3.22 FIP
Some commentary: Escalona is performed well in his brief MLB opportunities. He could be on the postseason roster. If he didn't have options remaining, he might be on the MLB roster, rather than Walker.
Arbitrary Grade: INC
The Phillies' pitchers have struggled with injuries and poor luck. As a whole, their results have been rather putrid. If they had performed at an average level, the Phillies would have a sizeable division lead. It is no secret that the Phillies need to upgrade their pitching staff, in order to be a viable World Series contender. (Though they may be able to ride their offense to win a weak division.)
Starting Pitchers
Joe Blanton
Some numbers: 103.1 IP, 4.44 ERA, 2.76 K/BB, .310 BABIP, 79.4% LOB, 4.74 FIP
Some commentary: Blanton has improved substantially, after a horrific start. BABIP is starting to work in his favor. His first half was mediocre, at best, but he could have a much better second half.
Arbitrary Grade: C-
Cole Hamels
Some numbers: 98 IP, 4.87 ERA, 4.72 K/BB, .348 BABIP, 71.3% LOB, 3.90 FIP
Some commentary: Hamels wasn't mentally/physically ready at the beginning of the season, and got off to a bad start. He has only shown glimpses of his aceability, and has also been unlucky, at times. He might be feeling the effects of the 269 innings he pitched in 2008. He should improve, but not to the levels the Phillies expect from their top starter.
Arbitrary Grade: C+
Jamie Moyer
Some numbers: 94.2 IP, 5.99 ERA, 2.12 K/BB, .307 BABIP, 71.7% LOB, 5.84 FIP
Some commentary: Moyer has been terrible. Signing him for two years looks like a very poor decision by the Phillies. His results indicate that he should be removed from the rotation, but his contract situation, and his poor suitability for a relief role, have kept him in the rotation. He seems unlikely to remain in the rotation all season, and seems unlikely to be on the postseason roster.
Arbitrary Grade: D-
J. A. Happ
Some numbers: 87 IP, 2.90 ERA, 1.91 K/BB, .242 BABIP, 85.9% LOB, 4.51 FIP
Some commentary: Happ has been the Phillies' most effective starter. If Happ had started the season in the rotation, the Phillies' record would, likely, have been better. Happ threw 166 innings in 2008, so the Phillies should try to keep him under 190 innings for the 2009 season. (Starting the season in the bullpen helped, in that area.) Happ's peripheral stats (K/BB, FIP, BABIP, LOB%) indicate that he has been very fortunate, and a sizeable regression may be impending. But Happ is graded based on his results, which have been superb.
Arbitrary Grade: A-
Brett Myers (injured, likely out for season- may return as a reliever in Sept.)
Some numbers: 63.2 IP, 4.66 ERA, 2.30 K/BB, .268 BABIP, 86.1% LOB, 6.22 FIP
Some commentary: Myers was surrendering homers by the bushel, before his injury. As mediocre as his numbers were, his peripherals indicated that they were likely to get worse. Re-signing Myers as a free agent would not be advisable.
Arbitrary Grade: D+
Chan Ho Park
Some numbers: (25 appearances, 7 starts) 59.0 IP, 5.49 ERA, 1.92 K/BB, .336 BABIP, 65.5% LOB, 4.00 FIP
Some commentary: Signing Park for $2.5 million, and giving him a spot in the starting rotation, was ill-conceived. After a horrendous performance as a starter (7.29 ERA), Park has been satisfactory (3.16 ERA) as a reliever. He has had some poor luck, which appears to be starting to even out. If the Phillies' bats hadn't saved them from several losses in Park's starts, the Phils would not be in first place.
Arbitrary Grade: C- (overall), F (as a starter)
Antonio Bastardo (currently on DL)
Some numbers: (5 starts) 22.2 IP, 6.75 ERA, 2.38 K/BB, .329 BABIP, 59.2% LOB, 5.01 FIP
Some commentary: Bastardo may have been promoted before he was ready. He was overpowering at times, unlucky at times, and out of control at times.
Arbitrary Grade: C-
Rodrigo Lopez (currently on DL)
Some numbers: (2 starts) 11.1 IP, 3.18 ERA, 4.00 K/BB, .315 BABIP, 69.2% LOB, 2.18 FIP
Some commentary: A journeyman northpaw, Lopez looked good in his two starts. He might put up better numbers than Jamie Moyer, if given an extended chance in the rotation. He probably won't get that chance, now that Pedro Martinez has been signed, Lopez may be used out of the bullpen, where he might be a better option than Tyler Walker.
Arbitrary Grade: INC
Relievers
Ryan Madson
Some numbers: 44.2 IP, 3.02 ERA, 2.75 K/BB, .293 BABIP, 79.0% LOB, 3.40 FIP
Some commentary: Madson struggled when used in the closer role, but has excelled as a setup man.
Arbitrary Grade: B+
Chad Durbin
Some numbers: 44.1 IP, 4.47 ERA, 1.54 K/BB, .268 BABIP, 73.5% LOB, 5.25 FIP
Some commentary: Durbin has been lucky to put up mediocre numbers. He needs to be the fifth option in the bullpen, but was forced into too many higher leverage situations.
Arbitrary Grade: D+
Clay Condrey (currently on DL)
Some numbers: 34 IP, 3.71 ERA, 1.57 K/BB, .268 BABIP, 76.1% LOB, 4.54 FIP
Some commentary: Condrey has also been lucky, and may be bound for regression. He needs to be used in low leverage situations.
Arbitrary Grade: C-
Brad Lidge
Some numbers: 32 IP, 7.03 ERA, 1.95 K/BB, .375 BABIP, 67.6 % LOB, 5.88 FIP, 2.25 HR/9 (career: .86), 19.5% HR/FB (career: 10.9%)
Some commentary: Lidge has struggled with injury problems. Lidge has struggled with horribly bad luck, particularly with home run balls. His fortune seems bound to improve. But he is graded on his results, and there is only one possible grade for those results.
Arbitrary Grade: F
Jack Taschner (was optioned to AAA)
Some numbers: 27.2 IP, 5.20 ERA, .85 K/BB, .337 BABIP, 73.4% LOB, 5.63 FIP
Some commentary: If Taschner was signed at the major league minimum, it would have been a poor move. Taschner's salary was 835K, and he cost the Phillies a suitable backup catcher (Ronny Paulino, ot Jason Jaramillo) in trade. Taschner was so ineffective that Charlie Manuel barely used him. It was inexplicable that he consumed a roster spot for as long as he did. His ability to put baserunners on was evidenced by his 1.95 WHIP. He did a lot of damage to the ERAs of his bullpen mates.
Arbitrary Grade: F
Scott Eyre
Some numbers: (27 games) 16.2 IP, 2.16 ERA, 1.20 K/BB, .239 BABIP, 89.6% LOB, 5.17 FIP
Some commentary: Eyre has been extremely lucky, and regression seems inevitable. The Phillies need to be certain to keep Eyre in LOOGY situations.
Arbitrary Grade: B+
J.C. Romero (suspended for first 50 games of season)
Some numbers: (17 games) 14.1 IP, 3.14 ERA, .92 K/BB, .234 BABIP, 85.6% LOB, 6.27 FIP
Some commentary: Romero has been luckier, than good. Allowing so many baserunners may catch up to him, as it did in his time with Boston. The Phillies need him to split the 8th inning with Madson, and to pitch in mid-high leverage situations. His peripherals indicate those situations may prove dangerous.
Arbitrary Grade: B
Tyler Walker
Some numbers: (9 games) 11 IP, 1.64 ERA, 5.00 K/BB, .235 BABIP, 100% LOB, 4.79 FIP
Some commentary: Walker should have taken Taschner's roster spot early in the season. Walker has been rather lucky, and has regularly damaged the ERAs of his teammates. He should be the least-used member of the bullpen.
Arbitrary Grade: C
Sergio Escalona (currently in AAA)
Some numbers: (6 games) 6.1 IP, 2.84 ERA, 2.00 K/BB, .265 BABIP, 75% LOB, 3.22 FIP
Some commentary: Escalona is performed well in his brief MLB opportunities. He could be on the postseason roster. If he didn't have options remaining, he might be on the MLB roster, rather than Walker.
Arbitrary Grade: INC
The Phillies' pitchers have struggled with injuries and poor luck. As a whole, their results have been rather putrid. If they had performed at an average level, the Phillies would have a sizeable division lead. It is no secret that the Phillies need to upgrade their pitching staff, in order to be a viable World Series contender. (Though they may be able to ride their offense to win a weak division.)
Wednesday, July 15, 2009
Season Review/Preview- Position Players (Now with Arbitrary Grades!)
Welcome to the 2009 Phillies Season in Review/Preview, Position Players Edition!
Catchers
Carlos Ruiz
Some numbers: .235 AVG, .703 OPS, .310 wOBA, .257 BABIP (.262 career)
Some commentary: Ruiz has been (mostly) a serviceable catcher, which is all the Phils need. He has struggled mightily in June/July (.482 OPS/.488 OPS). Ruiz has been putting up Bakoey offensive numbers, after a strong offensive May.
Arbitrary Grade: C
Paul Bako
Some numbers: .214 AVG, .517 OPS, .238 wOBA, .286 BABIP (.305 career)
Some commentary: Bako is not a major league-quality player, but he has hit as well as Ruiz, since June. "Gabor" is one of my favorite baseball names, but that is not enough to merit a roster spot.
Arbitrary Grade: F
Chris Coste (no longer with organization)
Some numbers: .240 AVG, .711 OPS, .317 wOBA, .307 BABIP (.316 career)
Some commentary: Coste is weak defensively, but far superior with the bat to Bako. Does Bako make up the offensive difference, with his defensive prowess? Probably not. Coste should still be on the roster, Bako should not be in the organization.
Arbitrary Grade: C-
Lou Marson
Some numbers: (AAA) .298 AVG, .748 OPS, .343 wOBA, .363 BABIP
Some commentary: Marson has done well at AAA, and is a far superior hitter to Bako (as are most players). Hopefully, Marson will replace Bako as the backup catcher, for the postseason (if not sooner).
Arbitrary Grade: INC
1B
Ryan Howard
Some numbers: .257 AVG, 22 HR, .870 OPS, .373 wOBA, .306 BABIP (.330 career), 4.9 UZR/150
Some commentary: Howard has improved, substantially, as a fielder (2nd among NL 1B in UZR/150). His low batting average could improve a bit, if his luck improves a bit. Ugly .574 OPS against lefties (139 AB) brings down his numbers, and his overall grade.
Arbitrary Grade: A-
2B
Chase Utley
Some numbers: .313 AVG, 20 HR, 1.004 OPS, .436 wOBA, .330 BABIP (.326 career), 2.6 UZR/150
Some commentary: Utley was expected to miss the first month of the season, but hasn't missed any time at all. In a non-Pujols World, he would be under MVP consideration. Ranks 5th among NL 2B in UZR/150.
Arbitrary Grade: A+
SS
Jimmy Rollins
Some numbers: .229 AVG, 7 HR, .642 OPS, .287 wOBA, .242 BABIP (.297 career), 3.7 UZR/150
Some commentary: Rollins has had a brutal season. His BABIP, and his July numbers (1.078 OPS, 45 AB), indicate that things could be getting better. Ranks 5th among NL SS in UZR/150.
Arbitrary Grade: D
3B
Pedro Feliz
Some numbers: .293 AVG, 6 HR, .756 OPS, .329 wOBA, .317 BABIP (.274 career), 9.3 UZR/150
Some commentary: The slick-fielding Feliz is second among NL 3B in UZR. Feliz' high BABIP indicates that his AVG may regress a bit. Feliz has a .338 OBP in 2009, after struggling to exceed .300 in previous seasons.
Arbitrary Grade: B
LF
Raul Ibanez
Some numbers: .309 AVG. 22 HR, 1.015 OPS, .426 wOBA, .314 BABIP (.311 career), HR/FB: 24.2% (12.9% career), -1.2 UZR/150
Some commentary: The Ibanez signing might be questionable a year from now, but it has been a great move at this point. His counting stats could be higher, if he hadn't missed time with a groin injury. His fielding has been surprisingly adequate. His HR rate should regress, as his HR/FB rate of 24.2% is rather aberrant. Ibanez has fattened up his stats against the woeful Nationals (57 AB, 6 HR, .440 AVG, 1.389 OPS). He won't (likely) put up the same numbers in the second half, but he has been one of the Phils' first half MVPs.
Arbitrary Grade: A+
CF
Shane Victorino
Some numbers: .309 AVG, 6 HR, .839 OPS, .368 wOBA, .338 BABIP (.312 career), -12.6 UZR/150
Some commentary: Victorino's NL-worst UZR/150 is disconcerting. Ibanez had UZR/150s of -23.3 and -10.4 in the past two seasons. It seems possible that, somehow, UZR/150 is understating Victorino's defensive skill, while overstating Ibanez'? Victorino's AVG may regress a bit in the second half, but he was a deserving All-Star.
Arbitrary Grade: A-
RF
Jayson Werth
Some numbers: .263 AVG, 20 HR, .884 OPS, .384 wOBA, .290 BABIP (.330 career), 7.1 UZR/150
Some commentary: Werth has 40 HR potential. His AVG could improve, if his luck improves. Werth ranks 3rd in NL UZR/150. Another deserving All-Star.
Arbitrary Grade: A
Reserves
Matt Stairs (OF)
Some numbers: (76 PA), .283 AVG, 4 HR, .951 OPS, .415 wOBA, .333 BABIP (.291 career)
Some commentary: Stairs has done a superb job as a pinch-hitter. He is almost useless in the field.
Arbitrary Grade: B
Greg Dobbs (OF/IF)
Some numbers: (119 PA), .269 AVG, 5 HR, .774 OPS, .330 wOBA, .293 BABIP (.316 career)
Some commentary: Dobbs performs much better when he plays more regularly. Manuel needs to do a better job getting Dobbs PAs.
Arbitrary Grade: B
John Mayberry (OF)
Some numbers: (AAA) .257 AVG, 8 HR, .808 OPS, .362 wOBA, .328 BABIP
Some commentary: Mayberry has struggled at the MLB level this season (.297 in 52 PAs). He needs to play regularly at AAA, but the Phillies' lack of a satisfactory right-handed pinch-hitter/outfielder may keep him with the parent club.
Arbitrary Grade: INC
Eric Bruntlett (IF/OF)
Some numbers: (84 PAs) .139 AVG, .416 OPS, .192 wOBA, .185 BABIP (.273 career)
Some commentary: It is disturbing that Bruntlett has more PAs than Stairs. Bruntlett has not been lucky at the plate, but he also hasn't been good. His offensive stats are historically bad. If he was a "25th Man", who rarely played (and didn't have a 800K salary, 500K perhaps?), and helped clean up around the clubhouse, he might not hurt the Phils as much. But Manuel giving him 150 PAs is a disaster.
Arbitrary Grade: F
With the exception of Jimmy Rollins, and the catchers, the Phillies' position players have performed very well. Their bench has been a glaring weakness, with only two useful players (Greg Dobbs, Matt Stairs), only one of whom (Dobbs) is adequate defensively. The Phils desperately need a right-handed hitting outfielder/pinch-hitter, and would be in bad shape if any of their starting position players were injured. However, there may not be another MLB team that can match the ability of the Phillies' starting lineup.
Catchers
Carlos Ruiz
Some numbers: .235 AVG, .703 OPS, .310 wOBA, .257 BABIP (.262 career)
Some commentary: Ruiz has been (mostly) a serviceable catcher, which is all the Phils need. He has struggled mightily in June/July (.482 OPS/.488 OPS). Ruiz has been putting up Bakoey offensive numbers, after a strong offensive May.
Arbitrary Grade: C
Paul Bako
Some numbers: .214 AVG, .517 OPS, .238 wOBA, .286 BABIP (.305 career)
Some commentary: Bako is not a major league-quality player, but he has hit as well as Ruiz, since June. "Gabor" is one of my favorite baseball names, but that is not enough to merit a roster spot.
Arbitrary Grade: F
Chris Coste (no longer with organization)
Some numbers: .240 AVG, .711 OPS, .317 wOBA, .307 BABIP (.316 career)
Some commentary: Coste is weak defensively, but far superior with the bat to Bako. Does Bako make up the offensive difference, with his defensive prowess? Probably not. Coste should still be on the roster, Bako should not be in the organization.
Arbitrary Grade: C-
Lou Marson
Some numbers: (AAA) .298 AVG, .748 OPS, .343 wOBA, .363 BABIP
Some commentary: Marson has done well at AAA, and is a far superior hitter to Bako (as are most players). Hopefully, Marson will replace Bako as the backup catcher, for the postseason (if not sooner).
Arbitrary Grade: INC
1B
Ryan Howard
Some numbers: .257 AVG, 22 HR, .870 OPS, .373 wOBA, .306 BABIP (.330 career), 4.9 UZR/150
Some commentary: Howard has improved, substantially, as a fielder (2nd among NL 1B in UZR/150). His low batting average could improve a bit, if his luck improves a bit. Ugly .574 OPS against lefties (139 AB) brings down his numbers, and his overall grade.
Arbitrary Grade: A-
2B
Chase Utley
Some numbers: .313 AVG, 20 HR, 1.004 OPS, .436 wOBA, .330 BABIP (.326 career), 2.6 UZR/150
Some commentary: Utley was expected to miss the first month of the season, but hasn't missed any time at all. In a non-Pujols World, he would be under MVP consideration. Ranks 5th among NL 2B in UZR/150.
Arbitrary Grade: A+
SS
Jimmy Rollins
Some numbers: .229 AVG, 7 HR, .642 OPS, .287 wOBA, .242 BABIP (.297 career), 3.7 UZR/150
Some commentary: Rollins has had a brutal season. His BABIP, and his July numbers (1.078 OPS, 45 AB), indicate that things could be getting better. Ranks 5th among NL SS in UZR/150.
Arbitrary Grade: D
3B
Pedro Feliz
Some numbers: .293 AVG, 6 HR, .756 OPS, .329 wOBA, .317 BABIP (.274 career), 9.3 UZR/150
Some commentary: The slick-fielding Feliz is second among NL 3B in UZR. Feliz' high BABIP indicates that his AVG may regress a bit. Feliz has a .338 OBP in 2009, after struggling to exceed .300 in previous seasons.
Arbitrary Grade: B
LF
Raul Ibanez
Some numbers: .309 AVG. 22 HR, 1.015 OPS, .426 wOBA, .314 BABIP (.311 career), HR/FB: 24.2% (12.9% career), -1.2 UZR/150
Some commentary: The Ibanez signing might be questionable a year from now, but it has been a great move at this point. His counting stats could be higher, if he hadn't missed time with a groin injury. His fielding has been surprisingly adequate. His HR rate should regress, as his HR/FB rate of 24.2% is rather aberrant. Ibanez has fattened up his stats against the woeful Nationals (57 AB, 6 HR, .440 AVG, 1.389 OPS). He won't (likely) put up the same numbers in the second half, but he has been one of the Phils' first half MVPs.
Arbitrary Grade: A+
CF
Shane Victorino
Some numbers: .309 AVG, 6 HR, .839 OPS, .368 wOBA, .338 BABIP (.312 career), -12.6 UZR/150
Some commentary: Victorino's NL-worst UZR/150 is disconcerting. Ibanez had UZR/150s of -23.3 and -10.4 in the past two seasons. It seems possible that, somehow, UZR/150 is understating Victorino's defensive skill, while overstating Ibanez'? Victorino's AVG may regress a bit in the second half, but he was a deserving All-Star.
Arbitrary Grade: A-
RF
Jayson Werth
Some numbers: .263 AVG, 20 HR, .884 OPS, .384 wOBA, .290 BABIP (.330 career), 7.1 UZR/150
Some commentary: Werth has 40 HR potential. His AVG could improve, if his luck improves. Werth ranks 3rd in NL UZR/150. Another deserving All-Star.
Arbitrary Grade: A
Reserves
Matt Stairs (OF)
Some numbers: (76 PA), .283 AVG, 4 HR, .951 OPS, .415 wOBA, .333 BABIP (.291 career)
Some commentary: Stairs has done a superb job as a pinch-hitter. He is almost useless in the field.
Arbitrary Grade: B
Greg Dobbs (OF/IF)
Some numbers: (119 PA), .269 AVG, 5 HR, .774 OPS, .330 wOBA, .293 BABIP (.316 career)
Some commentary: Dobbs performs much better when he plays more regularly. Manuel needs to do a better job getting Dobbs PAs.
Arbitrary Grade: B
John Mayberry (OF)
Some numbers: (AAA) .257 AVG, 8 HR, .808 OPS, .362 wOBA, .328 BABIP
Some commentary: Mayberry has struggled at the MLB level this season (.297 in 52 PAs). He needs to play regularly at AAA, but the Phillies' lack of a satisfactory right-handed pinch-hitter/outfielder may keep him with the parent club.
Arbitrary Grade: INC
Eric Bruntlett (IF/OF)
Some numbers: (84 PAs) .139 AVG, .416 OPS, .192 wOBA, .185 BABIP (.273 career)
Some commentary: It is disturbing that Bruntlett has more PAs than Stairs. Bruntlett has not been lucky at the plate, but he also hasn't been good. His offensive stats are historically bad. If he was a "25th Man", who rarely played (and didn't have a 800K salary, 500K perhaps?), and helped clean up around the clubhouse, he might not hurt the Phils as much. But Manuel giving him 150 PAs is a disaster.
Arbitrary Grade: F
With the exception of Jimmy Rollins, and the catchers, the Phillies' position players have performed very well. Their bench has been a glaring weakness, with only two useful players (Greg Dobbs, Matt Stairs), only one of whom (Dobbs) is adequate defensively. The Phils desperately need a right-handed hitting outfielder/pinch-hitter, and would be in bad shape if any of their starting position players were injured. However, there may not be another MLB team that can match the ability of the Phillies' starting lineup.
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