Saturday, May 30, 2009

Surgical Procedure

The Phillies are fortunate they played the Nationals on Friday night. Despite sixteen hits, including seven for extra bases (six doubles, one triple), the Phils only managed five runs. Washington could only muster six hits, and fell to the Phils, 5-4. Shane Victorino paced the Phillies with four hits, and Jimmy Rollins, Raul Ibanez, Jayson Werth, Pedro Feliz, and Carlos Ruiz each had a pair of hits. Phils' starter J.A. Happ pitched well, but was removed with one out in the sixth inning, as he had reached ninety-six pitches. Chad Durbin permitted both of the runners he inherited from Happ to score, but the rest of the Phillies' bullpen held the Nats scoreless. Brad Lidge retired all three batters he faced in the ninth, two on strikeouts, in picking up his tenth save. The Phillies (and Happ) had a victory, but the win was overshadowed by the loss the Phillies sustained earlier in the day.

Prior to Friday's game, it was announced that starter Brett Myers would undergo surgery on his injured hip. For all intents and purposes, this ends Myers' season, and perhaps the Phillies' career, of the impending free agent. Myers has been very erratic over the years, but he has been the second-best starter in a weak starting rotation this season, and is a huge loss. Given the considerable difficulties Joe Blanton and Jamie Moyer have had retiring opposing batters this season, it is imperative that General Manager Ruben Amaro, Jr. makes some moves to bolster the rotation.

The internal options at AAA Lehigh Valley don't appear very promising. Kyle Kendrick has already pitched in MLB, with minimal success. Drew Carpenter made one start this season, and did not impress. Rodrigo Lopez is a mediocre journeyman. Twenty-three year old southpaw Antonio Bastardo has pitched well this season, but only has two starts at the AAA level.

The best choice from AAA appears to be twenty-two year old righthander Carlos Carrasco. His 0-6 record, and 5.81 ERA, don't look that impressive. But he has been cursed with a .389 BABIP, and poor offensive "support." Carrasco has struck out fifty-two batters, while walking only thirteen. His FIP is an excellent 3.24. He seems to be the best choice, at least initially, to take the vacant spot in the rotation. But it is apparent that Amaro is going to have to make a trade the bolster the rotation. While the Phillies might be able to ride their offense into the playoffs, they likely won't go much further with J.A. Happ as their second starter.

Ideally, Amaro will be able to acquire two starting pitchers, one for the front of the rotation, and a #3-type. As the season progresses, and teams drop out of the pennant races, more candidates should become available, and the costs to acquire them should decrease. The mid-rotation starter (Doug Davis?) could be a pending free agent, acquired in August, at minimal cost.

The front-of-the-rotation starter is going to be pricey. Hopefully, the Phillies will opt to acquire a starter whom they will control for another full season, or two. With the contracts of Adam Eaton, Jim Thome, Brett Myers, and Geoff Jenkins coming off the books, they should be able to afford a high-priced starting pitcher, and the raises that will be due players on their current roster.

But the Phillies are going to have to be willing to deal some of their top prospects. Carrasco, Lou Marson, Vance Worley, Bastardo, none of their prospects should be considered off-limits, if a top starter can be acquired. This team is built to win now, and it will become increasingly cost-prohibitive to keep the lineup intact over the next few seasons. The Phillies need to strike, before the window of opportunity slams shut. A Roy Halladay (2009:$14.25MM, 2010:$15.75MM), or a Roy Oswalt (2009:$14MM, 2010:$15MM, 2011:$16MM, 2012:$16MM club option, full no-trade close) would be perfect, but will be extremely costly, if they are even available. With the end of the world coming in December of 2012, as per Darren Daulton, Amaro only has to consider that timeframe when reconstructing the roster. Hopefully, Amaro will be able to find some reinforcements, before the Phillies start falling behind in the divisional race.

Wednesday, May 27, 2009

Inflamed

So the Phillies were beaten, at home, by long reliever-turned-spot starter Burke Badenhop and the Florida Marlins on Wednesday night. They had an opportunity to win the series from Florida, and opted to sleep-walk through an almost lifeless loss. Their only two runs in the 6-2 loss came on solo home runs, by catcher Carlos Ruiz and pinch-hitter Matt Stairs. It wasn't until the last two innings that the Phillies' offense was rustled from their slumber, but despite getting the tying run to the plate, couldn't complete the comeback. For whatever reason, the team is just not performing at home. It might be necessary to switch up some of the players' at bat songs, in an attempt to get some of their CBP "fire" back. A drastic measure, yes, but these are increasingly drastic times. Only Clay Condrey (two and a third scoreless innings, 2.00 ERA) and Matt Stairs (433 ft. HR) should be immune from these measures, after Wednesday's debacle.

Phillies' starter Brett Myers had been pitching well recently, at least heading into Wednesday. He continued pitching well, silencing the Marlins through three innings. Then he reverted to his early season form, giving up hits and runs by the bushel. He surrended two home runs, and left with two outs in the sixth inning, and the Phils trailing 5-1. Even worse, Myers complained of inflammation in his right hip, and is scheduled for an MRI on Thursday. The hip pain may have made it difficult for Myers to control his pitches, with the poor command making his offerings quite hittable. Considering that Myers is the second-best starter, in a questionable rotation, the Phillies can ill-afford to lose Myers for any length of time. The best option, currently in the organization, to cover for a Myers DL stint, would probably be AAA starter Kyle Kendrick. And Kendrick is just not a very good option.

The Phillies have Thursday off, before starting a weekend series at home against Washington. Perhaps the last-place Nationals, whom the Phillies swept two weekends ago, will be a panacea for the Phils' home woes. Thursday will be a good day to vote Phillies onto the All-Star team, and consider some options for a new Brad Lidge entrance song. While daydreaming of trades for Doug Davis and Josh Willingham. Or, perhaps, Roy Halladay. Trading the whole Lehigh Valley team for Halladay seems like it would be a good move right now.

Tuesday, May 26, 2009

Kentucky Joe to the Rescue!

Prior to his start Tuesday night against Florida, Joe Blanton indicated that he had discovered a "mechanical flaw" in his delivery, and that fixing it would improve his results. We've all heard that line many times before. I didn't believe it when Joe Cowley said it in 1987, and I didn't believe it this time.

Blanton's outstanding performance in the Phillies' 5-3 win seemed to indicate that the brawny hurler may have figured something out. Was he luckier on Tuesday, than he had been in earlier starts? Perhaps. Did the craptacular Marlins' lineup help him out, with poor approaches at the plate? Maybe. Blanton was so successful on Tuesday night, that improved skill certainly had to be a factor. He threw SEVEN SHUTOUT INNINGS! Blanton has struggled to get through five innings, and when he has surpassed five innings, it has come at the cost of oodles of runs. Not on Tuesday night, however. Five hits allowed, two walks, and ELEVEN STRIKEOUTS! Blanton's one-hundred and fourteen pitches (seventy-two strikes) took him through seven frames, as he ATE QUALITY INNINGS! As it that wasn't enough, Blanton also broke up a double play, utilizing his elephantine grace to help the Phils extend their lead.

The Phillies jumped on Marlins' starter Andrew Miller for three runs in the first inning, and added on single runs in the sixth and seventh frames. One night after his ninth-inning brain failure, Shane Victorino went 3 for 4. Ryan Madson came into the game in the eighth with a 5-0 lead, as he had already been warming up earlier. It took him only nine pitches to get through a scoreless inning.

Chad Durbin came in to put the finishing touches on the Phillies' first shutout of the season. Unfortunately, Durbin made a huge mess of things, only retiring one of the four batters he faced. (I expect him to hold himself accountable for the poor performance on Twitter, in a timely manner.) Embattled closer Brad Lidge was called into the game, needing two outs, with the potential tying run on second base. Earlier in the day, Phillies Manager Charlie Manuel had given Lidge a vote of confidence, and the once-perfect reliever got the job done, collecting his ninth save. It was disappointing that the Phillies didn't get the shutout, but Lidge's successful performance might have more significant long-term ramifications. Blanton and Lidge made big strides Tuesday night. If they can continue to perform at this level, the Phillies could remain in first place for quite awhile.

The Phillies go for the series win Wednesday night, with Brett Myers getting the start. Myers has been very effective recently, including his outstanding performance last Friday at Yankee Stadium. The Marlins will send Burke Badenhop, and his 5.75 ERA/1.62 WHIP, to the hill. Badenhop has been pitching in relief, so he may be on a low pitch count. ("Burke Badenhop" sounds like it could be the name of a cartoon villain, perhaps a nemesis for Rocky and Bullwinkle, so the young northpaw does have that going for him.) Expect a double-digit win for the Phils.

While you are waiting for Wednesday's carnage to begin, you may wish to cast a few dozen All-Star votes for Raul Ibanez, and his deserving teammates. Ibanez, the best outfielder in the National League so far, is only sixth in the voting. Ibanez will likely be at the game, even if the fans don't vote him in, and he will likely shock the world by winning The Home Run Derby. But let's go ahead and vote him in, so we don't have to worry about "All-Star politics" keeping him off the roster.


Postgame texts

(56) So, can I hang with you and Brett now?
(35) Need a couple more starts like that, Chunk.

(8) I just realized what Stairs reminds me of in the outfield- a Sleestak!
(28) He's not tall enough. An Altrusian, maybe?


Monday, May 25, 2009

Mistakes are the portals of discovery

The Phillies' Monday night opponents, the Florida Marlins, had been victorious in only nine of their previous thirty-three games. The Phillies, despite another poor start from Jamie Moyer (six innings, four runs), had every opportunity to win this one. Ryan Howard hit a pair of titanic home runs, but it wasn't enough to overcome three crucial mistakes.

The first crucial mistake wasn't by a Phillies' player, it was by home plate umpire Marvin Hudson. After three innings, the Phillies had a 2-0 lead, and Jamie Moyer was pitching well, as he typically does against the Marlins. However, Moyer began the fourth inning by walking the first two Marlins. With a 2-2 count on former Phillie Wes Helms, Moyer threw a called third strike. Except to Marvelous Marvin Hudson it was a called third ball. It is possible Starvin' Marvin was trying to make up for a blown strike call earlier in the at bat. But, as Sarge Matthews indicated, the umpire needs to put mistakes behind him, and make the correct calls going forward. Hudson failed to do this, and it cost the Phillies. With his time at the plate extended, Helms connected with a three-run homer, giving the Marlins a 3-2 lead.

The Phillies continued to trail 3-2, as the Marlins batted in the sixth inning. Moyer got himself into trouble, allowing a pair of singles. But with two outs, and eighth place hitter Ronny Paulino (another former Phillie) at the plate, Moyer had a chance to escape. With pitcher Chris Volstad on deck, and unlikely to be pinch-hit for so early in the contest, Moyer had no need to give Paulino anything to hit. Moyer fell behind 3-0 to Paulino, and it appeared likely that he would throw ball four out of the zone, and take his chances with Volstad. The wily veteran threw the pitch, and Paulino stroked the hittable offering into center, for a run-scoring single.

Typically, when the Phillies permit Chan Ho Park to participate in a ballgame, it turns out to be a crucial mistake. Park entered a 4-3 game in the seventh, and five batters later, it was 5-3. A two out single by Wes Helms increased Florida's advantage, but it was the only run Park surrendered in three innings. Park showed increased velocity in his relief outing, and his performance allowed the rest of the bullpen the night off. Hopefully, Park's results will be similar in future relief outings.

The third crucial mistake was made by Shane Victorino. In the ninth inning, and the Phils trailing 5-3, Victorino started the inning with a walk. The tying run was at the plate, in the form of pinch-hitting slugger Matt Stairs. The Phillies were, potentially, one swing away from a tied ballgame. Victorino, trying to eliminate the possibility of a double play, attempted to steal second base. Often, in this situation, the opposition will surrender second base, in defensive indifference. However, Victorino got a poor jump, and Paulino threw him out at second base. Perhaps, Paulino should not have thrown to second, and risked a throwing error. But the crucial mistake was Victorino's, as he should have waited for a better pitch to run on, and he could have returned to first base immediately, when he realized his jump was poor. Matt Stairs and Carlos Ruiz were retired, and the Phillies had lost, 5-3.

The Phils face Florida again Tuesday, in the second of three games. The Phillies' Joe Blanton faces the Marlins' Andrew Miller, as two mediocre hurlers attempt to escape mediocrity, at least for a day. There should be plenty of offense at CBP on Tuesday night. Hopefully, the Phillies will learn from the mistakes they made in the first game of the series.



Postgame texts

(8) Guess stealing wasn't the best idea there.
(28) No questions asked.

(47) Did you DVR Jon and Kate?
(27) Of course. We're watching with Chollie in ten.

Phils Beat Yanks, Complete 8-2 Road Trip

Phillies' closer Brad Lidge showed improved results on Sunday. Rather than blowing the game against the Yankees, he merely blew the lead. Phillies' ace Cole Hamels outpitched his Yankee counterpart, C.C. Sabathia, allowing only two runs over six innings. The Phils lead the entire game, relying on more strong defense, particularly an outfield assist from Jayson Werth to plate-blocking catcher Carlos Ruiz, and more strong middle relief (Chad Durbin, Scott Eyre, Ryan Madson). Closer Brad Lidge was brought in to protect a 3-2 lead in the ninth, and two seeing-eye singles later, the game was headed to extra innings. However, the non-Lidgeian components of the bullpen continued to excel, as Clay Condrey pitched two scoreless innings. Condrey got the Hamels-deserved win, when Ruiz (3-4, hitting .302, take that Rob Neyer!) hit an eleventh-inning double. The win completed a very successful 8-2 road trip for the Phillies.

The Phillies combined strong starts from Brett Myers, J.A. Happ, and Cole Hamels, with strong defense, and plenty of hitting, this weekend. Out of the seven-man bullpen, four relievers (Durbin, Eyre, Madson, and Condrey) performed well, and two (Chan Ho Park and Jack Taschner) were (perhaps, wisely) not permitted to perform at all. This made the struggles of closer Brad Lidge all the more glaring. (The fact that Lidge is being used in the highest leverage role doesn't help with that glare factor, either.)

Lidge blew his third and fourth saves on the season this weekend, which is four more than he blew last season. His ERA is at 9.15, with a FIP of 6.96. He has been a bit unlucky, with a BABIP of .400 (career: .326). Lidge's troubles have lead to the consideration of many different options. Lidge could be DL'd, he could be moved to a lower-leverage role, he could be asked to accept a minor league assignment (this seems least likely), or he could be kept in the closer's role.

On Sunday, his blown save was a result of two ground balls that snuck into the outfield. A little luck and those balls would have found the gloves of infielders. Lidge looked a lot better than he did on the previous day. The Phillies are a better team with (an effective) Lidge closing, which allows Madson and J.C. Romero to be used in setup roles. I'd keep Lidge in the closer's role, for now, and give him a little more time to recover his form. But, on June 3rd, when Romero is eligible to return, a roster move will need to be made. Taschner could be DFA'd, or John Mayberry could be sent to AAA, in order to free up that spot. However, Romero might take Lidge's roster spot, instead, with Lidge spending some time on the DL. The Phils can't afford to keep putting Lidge in position to blow saves.

The other major personnel decision facing the Phillies is whether to keep John Mayberry, Jr. with the parent club, or to send him back to AAA Lehigh Valley. On numerous occasions this season, the Phillies' lack of a satisfactory right-handed bench bat has been exploited. Too many PH at bats have featured the stylings of .118 hitter Eric Bruntlett, or Miguel Cairo, who aspires to be a .118 hitter. The need is glaring, but is Mayberry the appropriate choice for the role?

Mayberry needs to get regular at bats, so he can continue his development. If Mayberry got regular at bats with the Phillies, which may be possible if he is used to give Raul Ibanez, Shane Victorino, and Jayson Werth (Werth covers CF for Victorino's off-days) days off, the at bats would come at the expense of bench players Greg Dobbs and Matt Stairs. Dobbs has been used sparingly this season, and it has adversely affected his performance. In interleague play, with a lineup of nine non-pitchers, Mayberry might be the best choice for the roster. But, against National League opponents, particularly given the struggles of starting pitchers Jamie Moyer and Joe Blanton, it might be better to have an extra arm (Sergio Escalona?). Later in the season (August?), Mayberry might be a better option, than an extra bullpen arm, or another possibility may become available on the trade market (Mark DeRosa?). Until then, it would be good if Manuel considered using backup catcher Chris Coste to pinch-hit more frequently. (Or slugging "pitcher" Chan Ho Park?)

The Phillies return home to face the Marlins on Monday night. Jamie Moyer gets the start for the Phils, as he continues to pursue his two-hundred and fiftieth career win, against the one team he still seems to pitch well against. Florida counters with Chris Volstad. The starting pitcher matchup certainly favors the Marlins, but you can't count out the ability of the Phillies' offense and bullpen to overcome poor starting pitching.


Postgame Texts

(54) Sorry, I cost you the win, Cole.
(35) No worries, I'll still get my 300.

(40) 0-5 today pop. :(
(28) Did you ask Cervelli if he would sign my WBC Italy jersey?

Sunday, May 24, 2009

Phils Lose on Mayberry's Day

Saturday's Phillies-Yankees game was going quite well for the Phils. J.A. Happ, making his first start of 2009, pitched six effective innings. Despite not having thrown more than fifty pitches in a game this season, Happ threw seventy-five on Saturday, fifty for strikes. He only allowed two runs (four hits/ZERO walks!) to the strong Yankee lineup, pitching in the new offense-maximizing Yankee Stadium.

John Mayberry, Jr. made his MLB debut for the Phils, starting in the outfield, as defensively-mediocre slugger Raul Ibanez batted as the designated hitter. Mayberry, Jr. had two hits in three at bats, including a huge home run. The Phillies took a 90.4% WE into the ninth inning, with closer Brad Lidge on to protect a 4-2 lead. Six batters later, the Phils had lost 5-4, and this replacement-level blogger's profanities reverberated through the summer air.

In the bottom of the ninth inning, after the Yankees had tied the game, they had a runner on second base, and one out. As the only run that mattered was the potential game-winning run on second, it seemed like the correct move would have been to intentionally walk Melky Cabrera. This would have set up a potential inning-ending double play, or at least make a force play at second a possibility. Cabrera has been hitting well as of late, while the next batter, Nick Swisher, has not. After Swisher, the Yanks had weak-hitting Angel Berroa due, followed by Kevin Cash, who wishes he hit as well as weak-hitting Angel Berroa. The Yanks did not have any pinch-hitters available. However, the Phillies opted to let Lidge pitch to Cabrera, and Cabrera beat them.

When John Mayberry, Jr. hit his fifth inning homer, the FOX cameras immediately switched to the stands, in order to show his father's reaction. It was a bit surprising to see the rather youthful-looking former MLBer totally outfitted in WBC apparel, but refreshing to see that he, too, had realized that the WBC is, in fact, a Classic. Considering that he had just seen he son hit his first MLB homer, you'd think he would have been a little more excited about the game, than about the selection he had made from the concessions. But, who among us hasn't made the perfect culinary choice at the ballpark, and then taken a moment to revel in the delicious consequences of our own brilliance. FOX had, obviously, been prepared for this moment, seeing the potential as soon as the younger Mayberry was announced as the starting rightfielder. Right? Well, guess not. The fan the FOX cameras had shown was not actually the former Blue Jay/Yankee. Nicely done, FOX.

The Phillies played 98% of a great game on Saturday, with J.A. Happ and John Mayberry, Jr. putting the Phils in position to win. The best move might be to focus on those positives, and forget about the Lidge-induced ugliness that concluded the game. Saturday was Happ's day, and the (real) Mayberrys' day.

Phils complete the Yanks' series on Sunday, as they attempt to take two of three in their first interleague weekend. A tremendous pitching matchup awaits, as Phillies' ace Cole Hamels faces Yankees' ace C.C. Sabathia. Should be a good one.




Postgame Texts

(54) Sorry about that one JA.
(43) No worries, get'em next time.

(40) Like that power, pop?
(28) Good. A guy at the game said the WBC Shop is having a sale!

Friday, May 22, 2009

Phils Demolish Yanks, 7-3

How great was that? It took the Phillies one pitch to take the lead tonight. Jimmy Rollins took the first pitch he saw from Yankees starter A.J. Burnett into the seats. Jayson Werth, Carlos Ruiz, and Raul Ibanez also went deep, in the Phils' 7-3 win. Every starter, except Ryan Howard, had a hit, including multi-hit games from Rollins, Ibanez, Werth, Shane Victorino, and Ruiz (three hits!). The Phillies had fourteen hits, and lead for the entire game. Awesome. So much for the Yankees' nine-game winning streak...

The best part of the game wasn't all of the Phillies home runs. It wasn't the Ibanez to Rollins to plate-blocking Ruiz play that prevented the Yanks from tying the game in the first inning. It wasn't the fact that Yankees' ace starter-turned-reliever Chien-Ming Wang entered with a 34.50 ERA, needing to pitch forty consecutive scoreless innings to reduce his ERA to 4.50. It was the outstanding performance by Phillies' starter Brett Myers. Myers did allow three more home runs, which could happen to anybody at the new, tater-wild Yankee Stadium. But they were all solo shots, and were the only runs he permitted in eight (!) innings. Myers did not walk a batter, and threw an impressive seventy-seven of his one-hundred and seven pitches for strikes. A non-quotation mark quality start for Myers, who has shown major improvement in his last three starts, and given the Phils a strong starter behind ace Cole Hamels. Now the Phils just need to fix Jamie Moyer and Joe Blanton.

After the game, reliever Sergio Escalona was sent to AAA Lehigh Valley, and outfielder John Mayberry, Jr. was recalled. This was expected, as the Phillies were carrying eight relievers, and needed a plausible designated hitter option for Saturday. (Against southpaws Andy Pettitte and C.C. Sabathia, Friday night's DH, Matt Stairs, is not a plausible option. Eric Bruntlett is never a plausible option.) Hopefully, Manager Charlie Manuel will start Mayberry, Jr. in left, and use Ibanez as the DH, as Mayberry is stronger defensively. Escalona pitched well for the Phils, and could be back this season. He can be optioned to and from AAA at will, without having to pass through waivers, so he might have a recall advantage over the option-less veteran relievers at Lehigh Valley (Mike Koplove, Gary Majewski, Tyler Walker).

The Phils face the Yanks again Saturday afternoon, in a nationally-televised FOX game. J. A. Happ enters the rotation for the Phillies. As he hasn't thrown more than fifty pitches this season, he might be limited to four, or five, innings. Luckily, Myers' start Friday enabled the bullpen, with the exception of Ryan Madson (one scoreless inning), to get the night off. Given the run-scoring environment at the new Yankee Stadium, especially in a warm afternoon game, both teams might need a lot of arms on Saturday.



Postgame Texts:

(40) Sergio, I'm coming up to the bigs!
(53) No way, we can be roomies!!!!!
(40) Umm, you might want to talk to Charlie

(39) Your move one
(35) Well-played, two.

Thursday, May 21, 2009

Cole's Journal

Sunday, May 17, 2009

Big win over the Nationals today- we swept the series! Escalona got the win- his first! Me and Shane sent the rook a bunch of congratulatory texts after the game, but the kid was too hyper to even check them. I told Charlie I could pitch the eighth and ninth, so I could protect the win for Escalona, but he used Scott and Brad, instead. I guess he didn't want to use me on two days rest. He could have at least let me pinch-hit, though. If he uses me, instead of Matt, he doesn't need to switch me out for Eric when they change pitchers. Saves two players for us. Whatevs. We won, that's all that matters.

Chad wants me to go see Star Trek with him on Monday, since there is no game. I told him that I wasn't a dork like him! (Hope he doesn't find out about my journal, only Heidi knows about it!)

Monday, May 18, 2009

Went to see Star Trek with Chad. Serg came with us. That rookie doesn't stop chirping! It was a good flick, but I would have done some things differently. I really like the BK commercials for it, with the Klingons? The dude's dog is named Tiberius, which is Captain Kirk's middle name! That was a good touch.

Going to sleep early, pitching against the Reds tomorrow. I love hitting in the Reds' ballpark, think I'm going to go deep.

Tuesday, May 19, 2009

The best part about days I start is that I get to pick the music before the game. We were rocking out to the new Green Day today, Jamie was really getting into it!

We won, and I went 1 for 2, with a run scored. Charlie used Dobbsy to pinch-hit for me, but that was OK. I got the win, and 7 more K's. I only threw 117 pitches, so I can come out of the pen if they need me tomorrow.

Rauuul didn't get a hit today, but he's still hitting .350. Love that guy, totally don't mind that he is probably a Romulan. I kind of miss Pat (and Elvis!) though. But we'll see them again in October!

Wednesday, May 20

I'm worried about the economy. I told Barack some of my ideas last Friday, but he seems somewhat reticent to implement them. Good thing my change-up is recession-proof! Scott is also helping me with my investments, so that's cool.

We lost today, but Jamie did well. He mixed things up by blasting some reggae before the game, and it might have helped. I was ready to pinch-hit in the eighth, but Charlie used Eric. I told Dubes I was available in relief. But he said if he used me, some dude named Price would be named the new pitching coach before I finished the inning. I doubt that because I finish innings pretty quick.

Thursday, May 21

Early game today. Easy win. But Kentucky needs to switch up from that country music, like Jamie did. I was ready to play some left field for the last few innings, to give Raul a break, but Charlie wouldn't let me. I wish they would let me help in every game, instead of in every fifth game.

Me and Shane were talking after the game, and decided we could put at least 100 snails on Matt. Maybe even 150!

Yankee Stadium this weekend. Can't wait! I'm going to hit me some bombs in that bandbox! Charlie might let me DH on Friday and Saturday. On Sunday, I get to pitch. I think Charlie might start Eric and rest J-Roll on Sunday. I'm hopin' Charlie will let me get my swings, and DH for Eric. Eric is a cool dude, and did an awesome job helping me do my taxes, but he can't swing the bat like I can!

Phillies Batter Reds, 12-5

Nine hits in twelve plate appearances. Five runs scored, eight runs batted in. Those were the numbers put up by the top three hitters (Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, and Raul Ibanez) in the Phillies' lefty-heavy lineup, sparking their 12-5 victory over the Reds on Thursday afternoon. (Remember last week, when Rollins was batting .199? Well, he's at .234 now, with eleven hits in his last twenty-six at bats. Nothing to worry about...) Those kind of numbers will win a lot of games, sometimes, even games started by Kentucky Joe Blanton.

The Phillies jumped to a 5-0 lead, after four innings. Greg Dobbs and Chase Utley hit solo homers, and Kentucky Joe contributed a key walk, took a throw off his left (non-throwing shoulder) for the team, and scored a run. Blanton was also dealing on the mound, holding the Reds to three hits (and zero walks!) in the first four innings. It looked like a quality start, without those pesky quotation marks, could be in the offing.

Then Blanton faced eight Reds batters in the fifth inning, with five of them scoring. The Reds increased their WE from 4.7% to 34.3% in the painful inning. With ninety-seven pitches thrown through five, that was it for Blanton. Was he unlucky? Did the Reds figure him out the third time through the lineup? Did the stocky right-hander just run out of steam? Probably, all of the above. But the Phils scored six runs in the next three innings, keyed by Ryan Howard and Raul Ibanez, while the Phillies' bullpen kept Cincinnati off the scoreboard. Chan Ho Park appeared out of the bullpen, throwing twenty-five pitches in his consistently wild, two-walk frame. Clay Condrey and Scott Eyre each allowed two baserunners also, but the Phillies managed to get the win, without requiring the services of Chad Durbin, Ryan Madson, or Brad Lidge. Blanton improved to 2-3 on the season, but his ERA rose to 7.11.

With the demotion of Chan Ho Park to the bullpen this week, there has been a lot of talk about how much of a mistake the Park signing had been. Opting for Park over the likes of Derek Lowe, Juan Cruz, Joe Nelson, you know, people good at baseball, was certainly a mistake. But another error by GM Ruben Amaro, Jr. this week, has gone almost unnoticed. In Thursday's lineup against Reds' starter Micah Owings, seven of the eight Phillies' position players had left-handed hitting powers. The sole exception: catcher Carlos Ruiz. If Amaro had been more aggressive in his negotiations with left-handed hitting catcher Gabor Paul Bako II, the Mighty Bako could have been ready for this game. Another lost opportunity...

The Phillies travel to New York this weekend, for a huge three-game series against the Yankees. With the Phils' bats hot, and the Yanks' new stadium permitting homers at a blistering pace, expect at least thirty runs for the Phils this weekend. Also, expect a roster move before Saturday afternoon's game which will, hopefully, bring up leftfielder John Mayberry, Jr., freeing Raul Ibanez to serve as the designated hitter in the final two games. Watching Eric Bruntlett DH is not something any Phillies fan wants to see. Mayberry, Jr. hitting bombs in the new Stadium, just as Mayberry, Sr. did in the old Stadium, now that's something worth watching.

Brett Myers starts for the Phils on Friday, opposed by A.J. Burnett. The Yankees' bullpen threw eight and two-thirds innings Thursday night, in their win over Baltimore. Hopefully, that excessive workload will work in the Phillies' favor.

Winning Streak Ends at Five, in 5-1 Loss to Reds

The Phillies' Barack Obama-induced winning streak ended at five games Wednesday night, with a 5-1 loss in Cincinnati. Without the adrenaline rush provided by playing the Reds in front of five-hundred and seventy-five dogs, as they did on Tuesday night, the Phils' bats were muzzled by Aaron Harang. Though all of the Phillies' hits were for extra bases, there were only four actual hits, with the sole run scoring on a Raul Ibanez homer. Harang might be a good trade acquisition for the Phillies, if they are unable to pick up D-backs' starter Doug Davis.

Phillies' starter Jamie Moyer failed in his forty-seventh attempt (OK. Fourth attempt.) at winning his two-hundred and fiftieth game, despite a quality start. Moyer has finally gotten his game back together, and the Phillies can now focus more on finding a roster spot for Gabor Paul Bako II, and less on acquiring Doug Davis from Arizona to replace Jamie Moyer. Or, perhaps, none of these things are true. Jamie Moyer's "quality" start was of the quotation-marks variety, as he only pitched six innings, allowing three runs. (It seems like the Phils have had a disproportionate number of "quality" starts, doesn't it?) Against a weak Reds lineup, devoid of slugger Joey Votto, Moyer permitted nine hits and a walk. Moyer was very fortunate to surrender only three runs, as the Reds' crazy, wacky baserunning shenanigans gifted him with at least three damage-minimizing outs. While Moyer did have better results, than in six of his previous seven starts, the performance was hardly good enough to silence any concerns.

The Phils meet the Reds in the rubber game of their three-game series on Thursday afternoon. Joe Blanton brings his 6.86 ERA, 5.54 FIP, and .305 Opponents' BA to the mound for the Phillies. Blanton does have a BABIP of .350 this season (lifetime BABIP: .302), so perhaps better times are to come. He doesn't appear to be injured, but erratic command has resulted in some wretched innings. The Phillies remained a game ahead of the Mets, after both teams lost on Wednesday. The Braves, winners of seven of ten, are a half-game behind the Mets. With a series on the road against the Yankees looming for this weekend, the Phils need to take Thursday's game. (Fortunately, the Mets play the Red Sox this weekend, so they will likely be swept.)

Tuesday, May 19, 2009

Phils Beat Reds for Fifth Win in a Row

Warning: If you are bringing your dog to the ballpark, and the Phillies are playing, you (and your hound(s)) can expect to see a Philadelphia victory. The Phils remained undefeated in Bark In The Park matchups (2-0) in 2009, winning their fifth in a row, 4-3 over the Reds. Five hundred and seventy-five dogs observed Tuesday night's carnage, nine-hundred sixty-five fewer canines than attended the Marlins' BITP on April 24th. Obviously, the Phillies have been bred for success in BITP games, having played under those circumstances frequently, as they progressed through the minor league system. The Phillies' dominance in BITP games begs the question, "Why doesn't CBP have BITP every game?"

The Phillies bunched four of their seven hits in the fifth inning, with a single by pitcher Cole Hamels keying a three-run outburst. In the second inning, Ryan Howard blasted a solo homer off the Reds' ace starter Johnny Cueto (1.93 ERA before the game, 2.35 after) for the other Phillies run. Hamels pitched well, but needed one-hundred and seventeen pitches to survive six innings. A pair of solo homers sullied his line, a "Myers-style" six-inning/three-run "quality" start. Hamels only permitted five hits and two walks, striking out seven. But he needs to use fewer pitches, and get deeper into games. The bullpen needs to be lightly-worked during Hamels' starts, as it is heavily worked when his rotation-mates take the ball.

The Phils' bullpen followed Hamels with three scoreless innings, as Clay Condrey and Ryan Madson bridged the game to closer Brad Lidge. Clay Condrey has done a superb job this season, in helping cover for the absence of J.C. Romero. Ryan Madson has done a superb job in continuing to be Ryan Madson. Brad Lidge pitched a stressful ninth, putting the tying run on second, and the winning run on first, with only one out, before escaping. Lidge threw twenty-four pitches, and seemed to be in significant danger at all times. It was his third consecutive converted save, and he reduced his ERA to 7.85, but it was a ruff outing.

The Phillies play the Reds again Wednesday night, but no dogs allowed for this one. Jamie Moyer gets the start for the Phillies, with reliever Chan Ho Park ready to back him up out of the pen.
So, pitching obviously won't be an issue for the Phils. Aaron Harang starts for Cincinnati. I'll be monitoring reliever Chad Durbin's Twitter feed until game time. I suggest that you do the same. (I wonder if Chad liked the new Star Trek movie...)

Park Swaps Roles with Happ; Gabor Paul Bako II Signed

The Phillies announced Tuesday afternoon that J.A. Happ would be taking Chan Ho Park's spot in the rotation. Happ will start on Saturday, in a nationally-televised battle against the Yankees. (A designated hitter will be used at Yankee Stadium, so the Phils won't suffer from losing Park's bat in the lineup. Unless Eric Bruntlett is the DH.) J.A. Happ has been very effective out of the bullpen, and would have started last Saturday, if he hadn't been needed in Friday night's extra-inning game in Washington.

Park had serious difficulties in his seven starts, pitching to a 5.64 FIP and a 1.69 WHIP. Despite Park's struggles, the Phillies were fortunate to lose only twice (both to the Mets) in his starts. (One of those losses was 1-0, to Mets' ace Johan Santana, in a game any Phillies' pitcher would have had difficulty winning.) Despite Park's ineffectiveness, there were some positives to the decision to start the season with Park in the rotation. The Phillies guaranteed Park the chance to compete for a rotation spot in Spring Training, and gave him the spot when he outperformed his competitors. This will lend credibility to the Phils, which could prove useful if they make a similar guarantee to another free agent in the offseason.

Using Park in the rotation for the first month and a half of the season, also helped keep Happ's early-season workload light. Happ is at twenty-one innings pitched at present, while he might be around fifty innings, if he had been in the rotation from the start of the season. Happ threw one-hundred and seventy innings in 2008, including the postseason. In order to avoid Verduccifying Happ, the Phillies should keep Happ below one-hundred and ninety innings in 2009. The thirty innings the Phillies have already "saved" on Happ should help protect the young southpaw's health, and postseason effectiveness. (Of course, if the other members of the rotation, specifically Jamie Moyer and Joe Blanton, don't figure things out soon, the Phils might not have to worry about Happ's postseason workload.)

In a minor move, the Phillies signed free agent catcher Paul Bako. Bako, who will be thirty-seven in June, played ninety-nine games for the Reds in 2008. He failed to make the Cubs roster in Spring Training, and was unconditionally released. Bako is a poor hitter (.274 wOBA lifetime), but is satisfactory on defense.

It's not really clear what the plan is for Bako. Perhaps the Phils believe that Bako will be a better mentor in AAA for top prospect Lou Marson, than current AAA backup Paul Hoover? Maybe they would like to add Bako or Hoover to the MLB roster, and free up Chris Coste to be used as a right-handed pinch-hitter/occasional corner infielder? Possibly, they are just adding some catching inventory, to put them in better position to deal one of their current backstops? (Another possibility is that they simply felt that the opportunity to roster the first player named "Gabor" in the illustrious history of the franchise was too much to pass up.) No matter their reasoning, this is probably a low-risk signing, unless they let Bako use a bat in MLB on a regular basis.

Sunday, May 17, 2009

Phils Sweep Series From Nats With 8-6 Win

On Friday afternoon, as the Phillies celebrated their 2008 World Championship at The White House, Andrew Carpenter was a scuffling AAA starter with the Lehigh Valley IronPigs. Sergio Escalona was pitching well for the Phillies, the Phillies of the AA Reading variety. By the time the weekend ended, Carpenter and Escalona each had their first major league victory, and the Phillies had completed a four-game sweep of the Nationals. How unlikely was the preceding scenario? Probably more unlikely than Pedro Feliz' four-walk game last week. But probability is just a number to the 2009 Phillies.

The Phillies and Nats continued their tradition of interminably long slopfests, with little to no pitching, on Sunday. The Phillies' 8-6 victory featured five runs allowed by each starting pitcher. However, Escalona and the Phillies' bullpen held the Nats to a single run after the second inning.

Washington's bullpen turned a 6-5 eighth-inning lead into a 8-6 deficit, with some assistance from their shoddy defense. The turning point of the game was when Pedro Feliz bunted the ball near the mound. It appeared that third-baseman Ryan Zimmerman would field the ball, but reliever Julian Tavarez did, instead. Tavarez threw the ball in the direction of second-baseman Anderson Hernandez, who was covering first. Hernandez watched Zimmerman fail to field the ball, and Tavarez' throw went down the right field line. The first base ballgirl took the best route towards the ball, and had the best angle for a throw to the plate, but she was run off the ball by UZR-deficient RF Adam Dunn. Dunn's throw home was late, and the go-ahead run scored.

The comeback was made possible by Chan Ho Park's worst start as a Phillie. Park retired four batters, walked four batters, allowed five hits, and five runs. He needed sixty-three pitches to get those four outs, and raised his ERA to 7.08. Park had saved his spot in the rotation with consecutive good starts, but now he is likely one bad start away from swapping roles with reliever J.A. Happ.

Park's line would have been worse, if Jack Taschner hadn't stranded two of the three runners he inherited from Park. Yep. The same Jack Taschner who was ignored by Manuel on Friday and Saturday, came through with two and two-thirds scoreless innings, keeping the Phils in the game. (Taschner's ERA is now 3.86, and perhaps General Manager Ruben Amaro should try to deal Taschner now, as his value will likely never be higher.)

Chad Durbin followed, allowing one run over two innings. With the Phils trailing 6-5, and the bottom of the Nats' order due in the seventh, Manuel tabbed Escalona to make his major league debut. Escalona pitched a scoreless inning, and gave way to Scott Eyre, who took the game into the ninth. (Ryan Madson was unavailable, having pitched three days in a row, including his appearance on Saturday with a six-run lead. Clay Condrey had pitched two days in a row, and, presumably, wasn't available either.)

Closer Brad Lidge probably shouldn't have been available either, having pitched three days in a row, and on four of five days. Given his recent injury, he probably shouldn't have even been permitted to warm up. But Manuel brought Lidge in with a two-run ninth inning lead, one out, and a runner on second. Two pitches, and a double play later, the Phillies were victorious. Hopefully, the consecutive saves will have a positive effect on Lidge's confidence, and the recent overuse won't have a deleterious effect on the reliever's health.

The Phillies have Monday off, before continuing their road trip in Cincinnati on Tuesday. Cole Hamels will make the start, on his regular day. Jamie Moyer will be pushed back, and start Wednesday, with an extra day of rest. It's a good move to get the struggling Moyer an extra day, and it's prudent keep Hamels on his regular schedule. Micah Owings, perhaps better known for his hitting exploits, will take the mound for the Reds. Meanwhile, the New York Mets will be playing in Los Angeles, against the first place Dodgers. This series is another good opportunity for the Phils to pick up some ground.

Phils Win Rain-Shortened Second Game

Phillies' Manager Charlie Manuel controls time, space, and the elements. Or at least one of the three. Fueled by Ryan Howard and Raul Ibanez home runs, the Phillies jumped to a 7-5 sixth-inning lead, in the second game of their double-dip in Washington. With the bases loaded, and Ryan Howard at the plate, the rains came. The Nationals' grounds crew struggled mightily with the tarp, and could have used Adam Eaton's proficiency in that area, which in his one true talent. After a ninety-minute rain delay, the game was called, and the Phils had swept the day. In the context of a rain-shortened second game, Manuel's decision to use his originally-planned starter for the second game, J.A. Happ, in relief on Friday night, made more sense. As did using Ryan Madson and Brad Lidge in relief, during the first game of the day. As well as playing the Saturday's first game down a player (DFA'd Miguel Cairo), instead of starting Andrew Carpenter in the day game, and replacing him for the nightcap. Obviously, Manuel knew something that we didn't.

Andrew Carpenter, making his first MLB start for the Phillies, pitched adequately, and was not helped by a tight, inconsistent strike zone. Though Carpenter did pick up his first major league win, as a result of the shortened game, it was a quotation-marks-worthy "win." He survived four and a third innings, allowing five runs on eight hits/three walks. He threw ninety-nine pitches. Fortunately for the Phils, Nats' starter Daniel Cabrera was atrocious, particularly against the top of their left-handed heavy lineup. Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, Raul Ibanez, and Ryan Howard combined to go 9-12, with two home runs, three doubles, a triple, seven runs scored, and six of the seven RBI. (The rest of the Phils' lineup was a combined 0-12, with three walks.) Cabrera permitted all seven Phillies' runs, in five innings of eight-hit, four-walk ball. He pitched like a minor leaguer with serious command issues. His rotation spot should be in jeopardy, but given an injury to rotation-mate Scott Olsen, Cabrera might stick around a while longer. (Note: The Nats are calling up ace minor leaguer Ross Detwiler from AA to start on Monday night, might be worth watching as the Phillies have Monday off.)

In a good roster-management move, the Phillies sent Carpenter back down to AAA after the game. (Carpenter would not have been available to pitch again for at least three days, and is best-served starting in AAA. We could see him in the Phillies' pen later in the season, and certainly in September, when rosters increase.) They made an intriguing replacement decision, recalling LHP Sergio Escalona from AA. LHP Jack Taschner, whom Manuel avoided using on Friday and Saturday, may be in danger of losing his spot in the bullpen. With LHP J.C. Romero slated to return on June 3, Taschner would likely have been jettisoned then. But Escalona might have about a week's worth of time to audition for the job of keeping Romero's spot warm.

With a three-game interleague series looming for next weekend, Escalona or Taschner, might be gone by Friday's game, to be replaced by another position player. Though the use of a designated hitter lessens the need for pinch-hitters, John Mayberry, Jr. may be recalled to play left field, in games that Raul Ibanez DH's. Matt Stairs may also spend some time in the DH role. Hopefully, the Phils won't recall utilityman Pablo Ozuna, instead, as he might make us long for Miguel Cairo. (Cairo will, likely, pass through waivers and go to AAA Lehigh Valley. He could be back up with the Phillies in a couple of weeks. Ugh.)

The decision to promote Escalona may also give us some insight into the time horizon that the Phillies considered. It doesn't seem likely that they will go with an extra bullpen arm for an extended period. As Escalona was already on the 40-Man Roster, and has options remaining, he can easily be sent back down to the minors on Friday. (If he beats out Taschner to be the Romero Placeholder, Taschner will be DFA'd, and won't be a major loss.)

If the Phils thought it likely that the recalled reliever would be up with the team for an extended period of time, they might have recalled Mike Koplove or Gary Majewski from AAA. However, they would need to put either of those two players on the 40-Man Roster, in order to recall them, and either would have to pass through waivers to be sent back to AAA. (Note: With open slots on the current 40-Man Roster, adding them wouldn't be a problem, it's the potential demotion that would be the issue. Neither Koplove nor Majewski has options remaining.) It seems unlikely that either one would make it through waivers without being claimed by another club. (Given that waiver priority starts with the team in the same league with the worst record, the Nationals would likely scoop up either one. I wonder if the Nats would deal RH-hitting OF Josh Willingham for either of them? Or both of them? Plus Cairo?) Recalling Koplove or Majewski, only to be lost on waivers in five days, wouldn't be very good utilization of assets. The Phillies made a good decision here.

On Sunday afternoon, the Phils will try to complete the four-game series sweep of the Nationals. Chan Ho Park, coming off two excellent starts, gets the ball for the Phillies. Jordan Zimmerman, coming off three poor performances, starts for the slumping Nats. The Phillies are in great position to finish off the sweep, and get closer to the top of the NL East.

Saturday, May 16, 2009

Myers Beats Nats in the First Game of the Phils' Day

The first game of Saturday's doubleheader could not have gone much better for the Phillies. Brett Myers chowed down on seven quality, bullpen-saving innings. Brad Lidge got a, hopefully, confidence-building save. Raul Ibanez hit two more homers, as the Phils jumped to an early lead. Carlos Ruiz and Chase Utley got well-deserving days off, without tragic consequences. The Phillies 8-5 win over the Nationals put the Phils in position to go for the doubleheader (and the series) sweep.

With the bullpen used heavily on Friday night, and Drew Carpenter making his first MLB start on Saturday night, it was crucial for Myers to go deep into Saturday's matinee. Myers rose to the occasion, pitching seven innings. It wasn't seven "Blanton-style" innings, either. Myers allowed only two runs, on three hits and two walks. He had eight strikeouts, throwing one-hundred and eight pitches (seventy strikes). Of course, there were the obligatory home runs allowed, two in this case, but they were solo shots, and he surrendered only one other hit. Myers pitched like an ace, deserving of a big free agent payday, in this one.

With a 8-2 lead, and a 98.9% WE, in the bottom of the eighth, Manager Charlie Manuel was able to use Jack Taschner to finish the game. This saved the more useful components of the bullpen for the nightcap. Actually, Manuel opted to use his very best reliever, Ryan Madson. IN. EXPLICABLE. But, Madson would only require seven pitches in a scoreless eighth inning, and should be available for the second game. NOPE. That didn't happen, either. Madson struggled in the low leverage outing, and the Nats pulled to within 8-5. Brad Lidge came on in the ninth, less than sixteen hours after blowing another save opportunity. Villainous National Willie Harris got another ninth-inning hit off Lidge, but Lidge retired the other three batters he faced. It was good for Lidge to have some success again, but the availability of Madson and Lidge for the second game is now in serious doubt.

The second game has all the potential makings of a crazy, high-scoring, lengthy battle. Drew Carpenter makes his first MLB start for the Phillies, despite being mostly ineffective in AAA this season. The Nats will start Daniel Cabrera, who is well-known for his ability to implode at any time. Cabrera was with Baltimore last season, but the pitching-poor Orioles determined that they were better off with the likes of Adam Eaton. Cabrera has never met a batter he couldn't walk, has serious issues when facing left-handed hitters, has difficulties with his control on a regular basis, and isn't exactly known for having an even temperament. Cabrera's batting skills are even less well-developed, as he would make The Great Don Carman look like a Silver Slugger, by comparison. Expect to see lots of left-handed-batting Phillies, and oodles of runs for both teams. (As well as more Phillies fans than Nats' fans, at the Nationals home park.)

Happ Beats Nats a Day Early

J.A. Happ threw two scoreless innings Friday night, and Raul Ibanez got the key hit, as the Phillies defeated the Nationals, 10-6. The Phils face the Nats in a doubleheader on Saturday, with Brett Myers taking the ball in the first game, and J.A. Happ getting the start in the...Wait. That's not going to work now, is it? What happened here? It's an interesting story, actually. A tale of exhilarating highs, and tragic, though not entirely unexpected, lows. A saga of heroes (Ryan Howard), villains (Willie Harris), and incompetence (the Usual Suspects).

With a doubleheader a day away, the Phillies needed starter Joe Blanton to eat some innings. The needed Eight-Inning Joe Blanton. (Well, maybe not the eight-inning/six-run Joe Blanton. The seven inning/four run version would be preferable, actually.) Blanton rose to the occasion and contributed...five innings/four runs allowed. Thanks, Joe! Blanton was actually fortunate to only surrender four runs, as he permitted five hits and six walks in his one-hundred and one pitch outing. It was lucky that he was facing one of the worst teams in MLB, or Blanton would have departed with worse than just a 4-1 deficit.

The Phillies rallied against the weak Nats' bullpen, scoring two runs in the sixth, and three more in the seventh. The three in the seventh came courtesy of a Ryan Howard homer, and gave the Phils a 6-4 lead. They just needed their bullpen to hold the lead for the final three innings. Scott Eyre (two outs) and Ryan Madson (four outs) got through the seventh and eighth, without any damage. Brad Lidge entered to close out the Nats in the ninth, with the Phils' WE at 95.4%, after he retired the first batter. A walk, a single, and a fielder's choice later, and the Nats had runners on first and second, with two outs. Fortunately, all that stood between the Phils and the win was journeyman infielder Willie Harris. He of the lifetime .669 OPS. Unfortunately, Harris chose this opportunity to produce offensively, and hit a game-tying double. Lidge was able to strike out Austin Kearns to end the inning, but another save had been blown. (Is it time to DL Lidge, and get AAA reliever Gary Majewski into the bullpen, with Ryan Madson taking over as closer? Quite possibly.)

The Phils were forced to burn reliever Clay Condrey in the tenth inning, and then pinch-hit for Condrey in the top of the eleventh. (Chris Coste, the only backup catcher/last position player on the bench at that point, was used as the pinch-hitter, which sentenced Carlos Ruiz to finish the game behind the plate. Given their weak bench options, I'd like to see Coste pinch-hit more. If Ruiz had to leave the game with an injury later, they could just move Jayson Werth behind the plate. Werth's father had appeared in six MLB games (two starts) as a catcher, so this should be fine. Then pitcher Brett Myers could enter the game as an outfielder, and alternate with Raul Ibanez in left or right, depending on the batter. The possibility of an oufield where Ibanez is the second-best defensively, and centerfielder Shane Victorino covers two-thirds of the ground, would be preferable to another Miguel Cairo pinch-hitting appearance. Besides, it is rather unlikely that Ruiz would get hurt, right?) Coste singled, but the Phils failed to score in the eleventh.

Manager Charlie Manuel had an unappetizing dilemma facing him in the bottom of the eleventh. He could use J.A. Happ, or Jack Taschner, to pitch. If he chose Happ, the Phillies could win Friday, but would have to get creative to handle the pitching shortfall on Saturday. If he chose Taschner, the Phillies would get to leave about four batters later with a loss, but with their Saturday pitching plan in place. Manuel made the right call, and brought in Happ. Happ did his job, and an Ibanez two-run single keyed a four-run twelfth. Happ had beaten Washington, just a day earlier than planned.

Drew Carpenter will be recalled from AAA to start the second game of Saturday's doubleheader, with Miguel Cairo (finally!) DFA'd to free up a spot on the 25-Man Roster. (Carpenter was already on the 40-Man Roster.) I am assuming Cairo will still be available in the first game. (It might have been preferable to start Carpenter in the first game, and then option him back to AAA before the second game, in exchange for another player. A bullpen arm, such as Mike Koplove or Gary Majewski? Not sure why the Phillies didn't do that.) Considering that Jack Taschner was avoided on Friday night, his days may also be numbered. Brad Lidge was ineffective, again, so perhaps a DL trip is pending. The Phillies have much to consider, when determining roster moves in the next few days.

So, two Phillies games on Saturday. (How great is that?) Brett Myers needs to eat some serious innings in the opener. Drew Carpenter just needs to keep the Phils in the second game. A five-inning/four run outing would suffice. Yep. Carpenter just needs to put up a Blanton Start. Hopefully, the Phils can sweep today. They need these W's. And, hopefully, FOX will let out-of-market viewers watch the early game on MLB.TV.

Friday, May 15, 2009

Phils' Bats Cost Hamels In Loss

It didn't look good for the Phillies. They trailed 3-1, with two outs in the ninth inning, of their Thursday afternoon battle with the Dodgers. With Raul Ibanez on second, and Greg Dobbs on first, Carlos Ruiz stood at the plate. Entering that at bat, Ruiz had accumulated a grand total of zero (0) RBIs in 2009. The weight of a 9.3 WE% hung on his weary shoulders, shoulders fatigued from nine innings behind the plate. Dodgers' closer Jonathan Broxton, who had allowed but a single run in the young season, threw his powerful right arm forward, in a motion not unlike a bear thrusting his arm at his unsuspecting, underwater prey. Ruiz' bat connected with the blurry white object, sending a game-tying double into right field. With the WE grown in an instant to a healthy 60.9%, pinch-hitter Eric Bruntlett ... struck out swinging. Phils' reliever Chad Durbin allowed two runs in the top of the tenth, and the Phillies fell to Los Angeles, 5-3.

The Phillies had the game-winning run on second, in the bottom of the ninth, and their best pinch-hitting option was .130-hitting Eric Bruntlett. Eric Bruntlett could be a successful hitter, if a few "tweaks" were made to the Rules of Baseball. An underground pitcher's mound, and extending fair territory to the Ballpark Proper, might be sufficient. (Note: In order for Miguel Cairo to be a successful hitter, "tweaks" to the Science of Mathematics would be required.) While the slumping Phillies' bats could have avoided this ninth-inning situation, with a better performance in the first eight innings, poor roster construction has to shoulder a considerable portion of the blame. The Phils' offense won't be slumping forever, and could very well spring to life this weekend against the woeful Washington Nationals. But the Phillies' weak bench will continue to cost them ballgames, until some personnel adjustments are made.

Ace starter Cole Hamels did everything that could have been asked of him. Seven innings of seven-hit, one-run ball. He struck out nine, and only walked one, in throwing seventy-three of one hundred and ten pitches for strikes. His WPA for the game was an impressive .115. His balky ankle did not seem to be a concern in his best outing of the season.

The Phillies start a four-games series in Washington tonight, as Joe Blanton opposes the Nats' John Lannan. The Phils have fallen to two games out of first place, and need to fatten up their win column at the expense of the cellar-dwelling Nationals. But, first, the Phillies will celebrate their 2008 Championship (WFC!) at The White House. Barack Obama is expected to be there, but it is unclear whether Kumar will be in attendance. Hopefully, the visit to The White House will be Miguel Cairo's last appearance as a Phillie. On Thursday night, AAA pitcher/40-Man Roster Member Drew Carpenter was pulled from his start, for no disclosed reason. Roster moves may be coming, and adding Carpenter to the bullpen, in advance of reliever J.A. Happ's Saturday start, at the expense of the rarely-used Cairo, is a very viable possibility. (Or perhaps Carpenter will be part of a trade for Arizona starter Doug Davis? Maybe struggling veteran starter Jamie Moyer will retire on top, in an announcement during the WFC celebration? The possibilities are as limitless as Cairo's limits.)

Thursday, May 14, 2009

Dr. Moyer Struggles in Loss

Jimmy Rollins and Raul Ibanez contributed homers. J.A. Happ was only needed for sixteen pitches, so he is still available to make a start in Saturday's doubleheader. Thus ends the list of the noteworthy positives in the Phillies' 9-2 loss to the Dodgers on Wednesday night. Former Phillie Randy Wolf was the winner for Los Angeles, permitting only one run over six, three-hit innings. The Phils fell behind 7-1 in the fifth inning, and didn't have a WE over 10% after the fourth. It was just of those games where you are thankful that the regular season has one hundred and sixty-two of them.

Phils' starter Jamie Moyer started out alright, taking a 1-0 lead into the top of the fourth. Then it all fell apart. When the dust cleared in the top of the fifth, the Phillies trailed 7-1, and J. A. Happ had replaced Moyer on the mound. The Phillies were not a factor after that point. Moyer was responsible for all seven runs, in four and one-third innings. His WPA for the game was a rather disconcerting -.345. Moyer's FIP is at 7.63, and he has had one good outing, in seven attempts. With J.A. Happ scheduled to start Saturday, perhaps Happ will remain in the rotation, at Moyer's expense. Moyer will likely be given a few more starts, but a stint on the DL with a phantom injury might be the way to go. The Phillies just can't continue to send Moyer out to destroy their WE% every fifth day.

Phillies meet the Dodgers in the rubber game on Thursday afternoon. An outstanding pitching matchup, featuring aces Cole Hamels (Phillies) and Chad Billingsley (Dodgers), awaits. Hopefully, Hamels can make us forget about the events of Wednesday night. I'll be rooting for a Hamels shutout, and fantasizing about Arizona starter Doug Davis in a Phillies uniform.

Tuesday, May 12, 2009

More Often Than Not, Manuel's Hunches Always Pay Off

Chan Ho Park was allowed to remain in the rotation, and delivered six strong innings. Jimmy Rollins was dropped to the fifth spot in the order, and reached base twice, scoring and knocking in runs. Jayson Werth was given the green light to steal some bases, and he went ahead and stole all of them. Brad Lidge was brought in for the save, and, well, it wasn't pretty, but he did pick up his fifth save. Phillies' Manager Charlie Manuel's fingerprints were all over the team's 5-3 win over the Dodgers on Tuesday night.

Some have been calling for Park's removal from the rotation, ever since it was announced that he had won the fifth starter's job. (This replacement-level blogger was part of this rather unruly mob.) When Park got off to a slow start, others called for his ejection from the rotation, or, even better, from the team. Manuel showed confidence in Park, and kept sending him out for starts. Park rewarded his manager with his second consecutive strong start, evening his record at 1-1. Park held the Manny-less Dodgers to a pair of runs, and only seven hits. Park struck out three batters, without walking any, reminiscent of his magical 25:2 ratio in Spring Training. It was an outstanding performance by Park.

Chad Durbin, Scott Eyre, and Ryan Madson were also outstanding, constructing a scoreless bridge spanning between Park and Lidge. Lidge was sloppy, allowing three hits, and a run in the ninth inning. He required twenty-four pitches to get through the inning, which ended with the tying run on base. Yikes.

Jimmy Rollins was, finally, dropped out of the leadoff spot, as his inability to reach base was proving problematic in that role. Some believe that the shortstop's poor performance, after some very strong offensive seasons, could be performance enhancer-related. I think it is much more likely that he was injured filming that Dick's Sporting goods commercial. (Look at his expression. IMPERVIOUS. TO. PAIN.) Rollins is just in a bit of a slump. It's just more apparent, as his slump started when the season did, resulting in hideous season stats. He has also been unlucky, as his BABIP of .217 is well below his career average of .298. Rollins will get better, and luckier. That said, Manuel moved him to the perfect spot in the lineup for his success, as batting between Ryan Howard and Raul Ibanez should guarantee him some good pitches to hit. Jayson Werth batted third in Tuesday's lineup configuration, which is fine, as Werth is kind of awesome. wOBA of .413 worth of awesome.

Werth stole four bases in Tuesday night's game, including a rare steal of home. As rare and unlikely this was, it wasn't the most surprising occurrence of the night. Pedro Feliz, known as "Senor Hackmaster" in some circles, has accumulated one-hundred and ninety-one unintentional walks in thirty-five hundred and eighty-six plate appearances. (His fourteen intentional walks have been removed from these counts.) About one in every nineteen plate appearances, Feliz coaxes a walk. (By way of comparison, The Awesome Jayson Werth walks once in about every eight and a half plate appearances.) Feliz rarely sees a pitch he doesn't find worthy of a wild swing, and excels at minimizing the opposition's pitch counts. Feliz came to the plate four times tonight, and walked all four times. (I calculate the probability of this happening to be approximately .000625%, or even less likely than J.C. Romero and Jack Taschner being on the 2009 Phillies' roster at the same time.) Feliz' four-walk game is Reason #5699 that you should always watch the entire game. You never know what's going to happen.

The Phils play the Dodgers again Wednesday, with Dr. Jamie Moyer getting the start. Moyer has been ineffective in five of his six starts in 2009, but all of these starts were prior to his receiving his doctorate from St. Joe's. Moyer will be opposed by former Phillie Randy Wolf. Wolf has a .249 BABIP in 2009, and his good fortune is about to run out.

Sunday, May 10, 2009

Quality Start by Myers Wasted in Frustrating Loss

Phillies' starter Brett Myers allowed only a single run in his six innings. The Phils had scraped together a 2-1 lead, and a 68.9% WE, as play entered the seventh inning. Manager Charlie Manuel had his entire bullpen available to finish the game. Innings from Chad Durbin, Ryan Madson, and Brad Lidge would close out the victory. But Manuel chose, inexplicably, to start the seventh with Jack Taschner, his weakest reliever. When the inning ended, the Phils trailed 3-2, with their WE reduced to 36.9%. Their WE would never get higher, as they fell to the Atlanta Braves, 4-2.

Myers surrendered five hits and two walks, and hit a pair of batters. He threw only fifty-five of his ninety-two pitches for strikes. He was often wild, but was able to minimize the damage. He got out of first-inning trouble with only a 1-0 deficit, and kept the ball in the park. It was a quality start, and it should have been enough to win. Myers, probably, could have gone another inning, but Manuel opted to pinch-hit for Myers in the bottom of the sixth. Pinch-hitter Greg Dobbs grounded out to end the inning, stranding a runner at third. The decision to pinch-hit for Myers was the correct one, but bringing Taschner in to replace Myers may have cost the Phils the game.

Taschner would not have been in position to blow the game, if the offense had made better use of their chances. The Phils left nine on base, as too many key at bats were squandered. Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino, Chase Utley, Raul Ibanez, and Carlos Ruiz were all held hitless. Braves' starter Kenshin Kawakami was, repeatedly, let off the hook as the Phillies took poor approaches at the plate, hacking away to little avail. When they did make good contact, as Ryan Howard and Raul Ibanez did in the eighth inning, an ill wind kept the ball in the park. It was a very frustrating loss, as it was a game the Phillies really should have won.

The Phillies have Monday off, before hosting the Dodgers on Tuesday night. Chan Ho Park gets the start. Hopefully, he pitches as well as he did in his previous start. With the Phillies' struggles over the past week, it wouldn't be surprising to see some personnel changes in the next few days. Closer Brad Lidge could be placed on the DL to rest his knee. Miguel Cairo, Jack Taschner, and Chris Coste shouldn't be feeling too comfortable about their roster spots. There aren't too many Phillies who should be feeling good about their recent play. But, at only a game and a half behind in the NL East, there is still time to get things back on track.

Blanton Finally Eats Innings, But Not in a Good Way

On Saturday, Joe Blanton boldly ventured where no 2009 Phillies starting pitcher had gone before: the eighth inning! Unfortunately, his outing, while long, was not exactly prosperous, as he permitted all six runs in the 6-2 loss to Atlanta. Braves' starter Javier Vazquez held the Phils to a pair of solo home runs, by Chase Utley and Raul Ibanez, in picking up the win.

Blanton only allowed eight hits and a walk, which were much-improved numbers. He finally completed his quest to pitch in the eighth inning as a Phillie. But the completion of his quest was a Pyrrhic victory, as the two-run homer he surrendered in the eighth inning reduced the Phillies' WE to 2.1%. The Phillies might have been better off burning another reliever in the inning, as a 4-1 deficit would certainly have been preferable to a 6-1 deficit.

Blanton shouldn't get too excited about his eight-inning, six-run performance, though it was closer to a quality start then most of his rotation-mates have come. The Phillies have the fewest quality starts in the league, which is even more of a concern when you consider that a number of those "quality starts" have been of the six-inning, three-run, quotation marks-needed variety. Hopefully, J.A. Happ will make a start in next Saturday's doubleheader, and remain in the rotation. The five-man rotation currently has four strong candidates to be the one Happ replaces. It's a testament to the offense that this team is still near the top of the division.

Saturday afternoon's game was a FOX broadcast, so many unlucky, non-international, Phillies fans had the game blacked out in their region. All Saturday MLB games, with start times between 1:10pm and 7pm, are blacked out, with the exception of your region's chosen game. As a Boston-area resident, the Red Sox-Rays game was selected for my area by FOX, as it should have been. I subscribe to the "why watch one game at a time, when you can watch more than one" theory, so I would have watched the Sox game on TV, either way. But, instead of being able to watch the Phillies on my computer, via MLB.TV, I was relegated to listening to the game. It seems that there should be some kind of viable solution to this problem. Perhaps MLB.TV could air all of the FOX broadcasts, with commercials adjusted for each region? I am not sure, but it is rather frustrating to pay for an MLB.TV subscription, and then be prevented from watching my preferred team. (Especially considering that, as soon as the games end, I race out to patronize the sponsors who brought me the game.) The Phillies play next Saturday afternoon, in a 1:05pm start, in a makeup game against the Nationals. As it starts before 1:10pm, hopefully, it won't be blacked out.

Phils play the Braves Sunday, in an early TBS game. Brett Myers will attempt to extend the Phillies' streak to one quality start in a row. Kenshin Kawakami starts for the Braves. At least this game won't be blacked out.

Saturday, May 9, 2009

The Ace Shows How It's Done

On Teacher Appreciation Night at CBP, Phillies ace Cole Hamels taught the rest of the rotation a lesson. A lesson on "acemanship." (Note: The word "acemanship" is approved for daily use. ex."Cole Hamels is known for his "acemanship", while "Sir Walksalot" is known for his BB issues.") The Phillies jumped out to an early lead Friday night, and kept their WE at over 89% after the third inning. Hamels picked up his first win of the season, and the Phils remained in first place, with their 10-6 win over Atlanta.

Hamels, making his first start since his ankle injury-shortened April 28th appearance, seemed quite agile coming off the mound, as well as on the basepaths. He also was quite competent on the mound, twirling six strong innings. He retired the first eleven batters he faced, and permitted only two runs, both during a three-batter Braves rally in the fourth inning. The three hits Hamels allowed in the fourth were the only hits the Braves managed off the southpaw, who had seven strikeouts against only two walks. Hamels threw ninety-five pitches, sixty-four for strikes. Given the struggles of the rest of the Phillies' rotation, the team really needs Hamels to pitch like Hamels, or the bullpen will be cooked by June. It was a relief to see Hamels looking dominant, and, perhaps even more importantly, healthy.

What wasn't a relief was closer Brad Lidge's performance, in a non-save situation. It was a bit puzzling that Lidge was brought into a 10-3 ballgame to "get some work in." The Phillies have games Saturday and Sunday, followed by on off-day on Monday. Lidge is unlikely to pitch on three consecutive days, so his Friday appearance likely makes him unavailable for either Saturday or Sunday, either (or both) of which could be save opportunities. It might have been more prudent to save Lidge for a Saturday appearance, regardless of the situation, in which case he would still have been available for Sunday. Given his performance, in which he went walk-double-homer to his first three batters, it's fortunate that it wasn't a save opportunity for Lidge. But the Phillies' bats, on the strength of homers by Jayson Werth, Chris Coste, and Chase Utley, jumped to a 6-0 third-inning lead, and gave Brad Lidge a seven-run cushion for the ninth.

Per the crack Phillies announcing crew, a Calculus teacher of Chad Durbin was at the game, as numerous educators were present, so that they could be appreciated. However, there was insufficient coverage of this appearance, so it is unclear whether this was the pimptacular reliever's only Calculus teacher. There are many among us who are eager to know just how much Calculus Durbin knows.

It is also unclear whether the Calculus teacher had any affiliation with the individual who ran on the field in the sixth inning. It is against the policy of this blog to transmit an account of this individual's idiotic behavior, or to glorify this behavior in any way, shape, or form. However, it is part of the blog's mission statement to educate, so that optimal choices are made. To that end, here are a few rules of thumb to follow when opting to run on the field.

  • Choose a later inning, so that you can enjoy as much baseball as possible. Consider WE %, when planning your run.
  • Make certain that your run will be filmed, for YouTube purposes, from different angles, if possible.
  • Choose your attire properly. While dressing like a matador would be memorable, a simple t-shirt would be best for mobility. Make a nod to the intimidating history of your city and/or team. A Philadelphia fan could wear a Ugueth Urbina Phillies shirt, or a Legion of Doom Flyers hockey shirt. (A t-shirt featuring a caricature of any Philly athlete who has been suspended for violent/erratic behavior would also be acceptable.)
  • Be sure to stretch before your run. Jog/run sprints in the concourse, if possible.
  • Plan your route. While you may wish to begin your journey by sliding into a base, you can maximize your time on the field by utilizing the spacious outfield. Stay away from the pitcher's mound, as it can be rather hazardous. (One exception to this rule would be if you choose to prostrate yourself in front of Cole Hamels, as your stirring denouement.)
  • Get a haircut the day of the game, so you will look good for your mug shot.

Phillies face the Braves Saturday afternoon, in a game the FOX Overlords may not want you to see. Javier Vazquez starts for the Braves, Joe Blanton for the Phils. Blanton continues his quest to reach the seventh inning, as insanity tugs at his currently-sound mind.

Thursday, May 7, 2009

Morality Is Not An Issue (But Starting Pitching Is)

It's still too early to be concerned about Phillies' starter Jamie Moyer, right? Moyer was unable to survive the third inning, in Thursday's 7-5 loss to the Mets, as New York pounded his batting practice-quality offerings for seven hits and seven runs. Moyer was fortunate that he was only responsible for seven runs, as he was removed with two runners on, and only one out. The ageless wonder's ERA now sits at 7.26, with a FIP too profane to note in this blog. Moyer continued to battle teammate Brett Myers for the home run lead, with his nine home runs allowed only one behind Myers' ten. Hopefully, this is just a bad stretch, and not the beginning of the end for Moyer. That two-year contract is not looking good right now, (Phillies General Manager) Ruben (Amaro, Jr.)!

Compliments of Moyer, the Phillies fell behind 7-1 in the third inning. Thanks to future starter J.A. Happ, the Phils were able to get back in the game. Happ was not needed to pitch his usual three innings in relief of Chan Ho Park on Wednesday, since Park was actually effective. As a result of Park's performance, Happ was available to throw three and two-thirds innings Thursday. Happ stranded the two runners he inherited from Moyer, and allowed only two hits in his strong forty-seven pitch outing. (Moyer threw sixty-nine pitches, in accumulating seven outs.) Happ solidified his bid to join the rotation, the only question is whom he should replace. (The correct answer is still "Park", but the competition is closer than it should be. Maybe J.A. Happ and Cole Hamels should just make all the starts. )

The Phillies used home runs by Jayson Werth (4-4) and Ryan Howard to close to within 7-5 in the ninth inning. Mets' closer Francisco Rodriguez came on in the ninth, pitching in his fourth consecutive game. Pedro Feliz started the inning by working the count on the Mets' reliever, forcing him to throw pitch-after-pitch, in a physically and mentally draining at-bat. (Nah. Feliz swung at the first pitch, and flew out. Half of the game is ninety percent mental, Pedro!) Phils' Manager Charlie Manuel then chose from his plethora of strong bench options, selecting Miguel Cairo to pinch-hit for Carlos Ruiz. This move was somewhat surprising, as Miguel Cairo may be the worst batter in the Phillies' organization. Manuel could have allowed Ruiz to bat for himself, or used such exciting options as Chan Ho Park, Joe (the Lumber) Blanton, or Brett Myers, as the pinch-hitter. Cairo grounded out. Matt Stairs followed with a walk, putting the tying run at the plate, but Jimmy Rollins popped out to end the game. It was impressive that the Phillies got as close as they did, but the lack of bench depth was too much to overcome. Apparently, the limitations of their bench are limitless.

In tragic news, former Phillies' Manager Danny Ozark passed away on Thursday. Ozark managed the Phillies from 1973, until August 1979, and won three consecutive division titles. He was instrumental in the development of the nucleus of the 1980 World Championship team. Ozark was well-known for his malapropisms. When asked about the team's morale, he replied that "Morality is not an issue with this team." He once indicated that outfielder Mike Anderson's "limitations were limitless" and that "half of the game was ninety percent mental." RIP, Danny.

The Phillies return to CBP Friday night, to face Atlanta. The Braves will send Jo-Jo Reyes to the mound. Reyes was 0-4 with a 7.65 ERA in four starts against Philly in 2008, including a 9.24 ERA at CBP. The Phils' counter with ace Cole Hamels, making his first start since April 28th. With Happ drained from Thursday night, the Phillies could use a strong outing from Hamels. As Danny Ozark would likely say, if asked to describe this strong hitting/weak pitching Phillies team, "Even Napoleon had his Watergate."

Phils Lose Duel, But Park Restores Honor (and Rotation Spot)

On Wednesday night in New York, Phillies' pitcher Chan Ho Park went through the formality of his final start, before his inevitable demotion to the bullpen. Future fifth starter J.A. Happ was ready to take over in the fourth inning, or so, of this encounter against the Mets, before assuming his rightful spot in the rotation. All that was to be determined was just how high Park's FIP would go.

This Phillies team has brought us a number of surprising, unlikely occurrences this season. A comeback win, in a game where their WE was a mere .7% in the seventh inning. A positive UZR from Raul Ibanez. A base hit by Miguel Cairo. Wednesday night, the unimaginable happened. Chan Ho Park pitched brilliantly, matching scoreless innings with Johan Santana. Park pitched six scoreless innings, allowing two walks, and only a single hit. This blogger spent the hours leading up to the game hoping that, somehow, Happ would wind up making the start. (Perhaps Park would take a cab to the new Yankee Stadium, by mistake.) By the seventh inning, I was cursing Charlie Manuel for removing Park from the game, after making only ninety-one pitches. The Phillies lost, 1-0, to Santana and the Mets, as they only managed three hits in the game. In another surprising event, the Mets scored the only run of the game when Pedro Feliz and Jayson Werth, both strong defenders, failed to execute in the field. The best performance by a Phillies' starter in 2009 only netted Park a no-decision. But he saved his spot in the rotation, for at least another turn.

Are the Phillies better off with Park in their rotation? Seasons worth of stats, as well as numerous projections, indicate that they are better off with Park in an opponent's rotation. Park hasn't been that effective in a starting role this century. Some argued that the Phillies would have been better off if Park got bombed Wednesday night, providing them with an excuse to move Park to the bullpen. But, when he's between the white lines, Park deserves our support. If the Phillies want to change his role at any point, they are free to do so. If anyone wants to root for the Mets to beat the Phillies, they are free to do so, futile though it may be. I still think signing Park was a mistake, I still think putting him in the rotation was a mistake, and I think keeping him in the rotation is just compounding their error. He was outstanding Wednesday night, but I don't expect to see many more such performances from Park. However, when he's on the mound for the Phils, I'll be hoping he is successful. As Phillies fans, that's what we should be doing. Supporting our team. (Even Miguel Cairo, at least until he finally gets DFA'd.)

Phillies play the second game of their two-game series in New York Thursday night. Jamie Moyer for the Phillies, Mike Pelfrey for the Mets. Can't wait to see how the Phillies surprise us this time.

Tuesday, May 5, 2009

Things Don't Always Look as Bad as They Appear

In a season that has already been filled with surprising, amazing moments, the Phillies added to that exponentially-growing list on Tuesday night. Miguel Cairo got a hit! In the lineup only because starter Chase Utley is day-to-day with a foot injury, and backup Eric Bruntlett hasn't met a right-handed pitcher he can hit, Cairo came up huge. With a single in four at-bats, Cairo increased his batting average by .083, to a season-high of .083. His WPA for the game was above -.050, as he finished with an impressive -.048. The Phillies defeated the Cardinals 10-7, moving into first place in the division, but Cairo was the big story. Cairo announced after the game that he would be keeping the ball from his second inning single, which produced a WPA of .006, for his personal trophy case. The bat, however, is already on the way to Cooperstown.

Brett Myers has produced the most consistent results of the Phillies' five starters, so far this season, throwing six or seven innings, and allowing three or four runs, in each of his first five starts. But he has been anything but consistent. Overpowering one inning, horrifyingly bad the next, anything can happen when Myers is on the scene. He has also experienced some difficulties with home runs, as he has permitted more than St. Louis' entire rotation, combined.

Myers was as erratic as usual, Tuesday night in St. Louis, but the final results weren't as good as in his earlier starts. The mid-80s (MPH) fastballs he was throwing over the middle of the plate may have been the root of the problem. Myers didn't walk a batter, but allowed nine hits over five and one-third innings. He surrendered two home runs, as opposing batters continued to bash the numerator of his own personal FIP equation. Myers was fortunate to only be charged with five runs in the game, as he left with the bases loaded. It was a less than impressive outing by Myers, but it was enough to collect his second win of the season.

The Phillies bullpen combined for three and two-thirds innings, permitting only a pair of runs. But the pen wasn't overly impressive, either. Scott Eyre entered with the bases loaded in the sixth, and gave up a deep drive to center. Shane Victorino sprinted to the wall, and made an outstanding catch, which turned a three-run double into a sacrifice fly. Clay Condrey continued to survive (mostly) on the strength of a low BABIP, giving up two walks, a two-run double, and a hard-hit lineout to 3B Pedro Feliz, in his two-thirds of an inning. Brad Lidge appeared to be having more problems with his balky knee, which appeared to affect his post-delivery landings. Lidge surrendered St. Louis slugger Albert Pujols' only hit of the two-game series, a titanic 450 ft. solo homer in the ninth inning. (That home run ball will probably be seen again, from the Phils' plane on their flight to New York.) Ryan Madson was the most effective Phillies' reliever, retiring all four batters he faced, on only ten pitches.

Cardinals' starter Adam Wainwright had been extremely successful in 2009, sporting a 3-0 record, with a 3.75 FIP. There had been some issues with walks, however, as Sir Walksalot (feel free to use that, when referring to Wainwright, if you wish) had a 5.52 BB/9 this season. The Phillies only had two walks, in Wainwright's six innings, but that's because they were busy rapping nine hits. The Phils knocked Wainwright for seven runs, including home runs by Shane Victorino (4-5, .209 WPA) and Jayson Werth (.205 WPA). The Phillies knocked out fifteen hits in the game, receiving multi-hit games from Victorino, Jimmy Rollins, Pedro Feliz, and Raul Ibanez. It was a ferocious display by the Phils' offense, as Ryan Howard (two walks in five PAs) was the only starter not to record a hit. The Phillies lead the entire game, and St. Louis was fortunate to hold them to only ten runs (two bases-loaded double plays, six left-on-base).

The Phillies play the Mets Wednesday night, with Chan Ho Park facing Johan Santana. One of the decade's worst starting pitchers, against one of the decade's best. (To clarify, Park is the former, Santana the latter.) But, in one game, anything can happen. For example, Miguel Cairo could even get a hit! In the words of noted wordsmith Gary Matthews, Sr., "things don't always look as bad as they appear." (Stick to broadca...bowling, Sarge. Stick to bowling.)

Good Starting Pitching Sighted in the Wilds of St. Louis!

Monday night's matchup didn't look promising for the Phillies. Their starting pitcher, Joe Blanton, had fallen well short of his usual levels of mediocrity, so far in 2009. The Cardinals' starter, Kyle Lohse, had been one of the best pitchers of the young season, sporting a 3-0 record, and a spiffy 1.97 ERA (3.14 FIP). St. Louis had the second-best record in MLB, with a 10-3 mark at home. None of this was a problem for the Phils. The Phillies won, WFC-style, combining strong starting pitching, timely hitting, good defense, and a shutdown bullpen, in their 6-1 win over the Cards.

In his Phillies career, Joe Blanton has only seen the elusive seventh inning in three of his seventeen regular season starts. The veteran hurler has maniacally chased his goal, a terrifying quest that would have driven others to the point of dementia. Monday night, Blanton continued to wager his very soul in pursuit of his obsession.

Against the Cardinals, Blanton's odds seemed rather bleak. However, he entered the sixth inning with a 6-1 lead, and a 95.4% WE. Blanton was tantalizingly close. He stood on the mound, on the verge of corralling his white whale. Though he held St. Louis off the scoreboard in the sixth, his quarry evaded him. In leaving the bases loaded, Blanton had reached one-hundred and one pitches. He would not return for the seventh inning. He had achieved a quality start of the non-quotation mark variety. Blanton's performance was, arguably, the finest by a starting pitcher in the history of the 2009 Phillies. But this was all of little solace to the bulky pitcher, as his goal, which had been within his grasp, had again disappeared into the abyss.

Former Phillie Kyle Lohse had been offered three years, and twenty-one million dollars, to re-sign with Philadelphia after the 2007 season. He declined, preferring to test free agency. Less than a month before the 2008 season began, he signed with St. Louis for one year, and four and a quarter million dollars. It was a tragic miscalculation. (At least until he signed a four year, forty-one million dollar extension, six months later.)

Lohse had pitched like a ten million dollar pitcher in 2009. Until Monday night, when he put up numbers that would be expected of, well, Joe Blanton. The Phillies scored six runs off Lohse, knocking him out of the game with one out in the fifth inning. On a night when Phillie pitching didn't allow a homer, an occurrence as unusual as a narwhal sighting in St. Louis, a Jayson Werth homer, and a Ryan Howard grand slam, knocked Lohse from the game. The Phillies scored all six of their runs on the two blasts, and their bullpen kept the Cardinals' bats silent. The come-from-behind victory (from a 1-0 deficit) put the Phils into the lead in the Wild Card race, which is crucial, as fewer than one hundred and forty games remain.

The Phillies go for the two-game series sweep Tuesday, as they send Brett Myers to face the Cardinals' Adam Wainwright. Yet another odious pitching matchup. But if Blanton can outduel Lohse, Myers can outduel Wainwright. And Chan Ho Park can outduel Johan Santana (Wed, on ESPN!). Well, maybe not that last part. (But, there is still hope that Phillies Manager Charlie Manuel will see reason, and start J.A. Happ over Park.)

Sunday, May 3, 2009

Weather Effects

The Phillies-Mets game scheduled for Sunday afternoon has been postponed, due to rain. No makeup date was immediately announced. (Looking at the teams' respective schedules, September 14th (a Monday) seems to be the best possible date to make the game up. With the playoff races more well-defined, and expanded rosters, that would be an intriguing four-game series. Well, unless the Mets are out of contention by that point.)

The inclement weather on the East Coast has also jumbled up the Phillies' plans for the next week:

  • The Phillies will no longer need Cole Hamels (or Kyle Kendrick or J.A. Happ) to start Tuesday night, in St. Louis. The Phils can push their rotation back and start Joe Blanton, Brett Myers, Chan Ho Park/Chan Ho Park's replacement, and Jamie Moyer in the next four games (Mon-Thu). Hamels' spot would come up Friday.
  • If Hamels isn't ready to go Friday, he could be DL'd, retroactively to April 28th. The DL stint would only cause him to miss a single start, as he would be eligible to return Thursday, May 12th, against Los Angeles. (Kendrick could start Friday, and then the first game of the Saturday, May 14th doubleheader against the Nationals, in that scenario.)
  • If Hamels is ready Friday, the Phils will only need to use a AAA option for one start, in the doubleheader.
  • J. A. Happ could start Wednesday (swapping roles with Park), on sufficient rest. (Kendrick or Andrew Carpenter could also start on sufficient rest Wednesday. But both of those options would require opening a roster spot, which could be done by DFA'ing Miguel Cairo. Most likely, Happ or Park will start on Wednesday.)
  • The bullpen gets a bonus day of rest. (Though it still might be wise to add an eighth reliever, at least for a week or two.)
  • As a result of the rain out, the Mets will pitch Johan Santana on Wednesday, and Mike Pelfrey on Thursday. (Originally, the starts would have gone to Mike Pelfrey, and Oliver Perez' rotational replacement/spot starter, likely Jon Niese, or Ken Takahashi.) This does not work in the Phillies' favor.
  • As a result of inclement weather in Washington, St. Louis Manager Tony LaRussa opted not to start ace Kyle Lohse today, instead using a planned "bullpen start." (It seems like the Phillies have been using unplanned "bullpen starts" all season.) The Cardinals will now start Lohse on Monday, and Adam Wainwright on Tuesday, against Philadelphia. The Phillies, originally, would have faced Wainwright, and right-handed rookie starter Mitchell Boggs. Another bad trade-off.
  • Phillies fans can spend Sunday watching Justin Verlander pitch for Detroit, and fantasize that the Tigers don't realize how impressive he has been this season, and would deal him to the Phils. (Hey, (Tigers GM Dave) Dombrowski! How about Lou Marson as your new "catcher of the future?" You won't be able to afford Verlander for long anyway, and, besides, Dontrelle Willis is BACK!)

Phils-Cardinals Monday night. Joe Blanton-Kyle Lohse. Another pitching matchup that favors the opposition, but that's what often happens when you have the audacity to employ a Blanton (and a Park) in your starting rotation. Hopefully, Chad Durbin and Clay Condrey get a chance to relax today. Those guys deserve it.


Saturday, May 2, 2009

Walk-Off Walk Gives Phils Sloppy Win

Phillies' centerfielder Shane Victorino coaxed a bases-loaded tenth inning walk from Mets' reliever Sean Green, giving the Phils a 6-5 win on Saturday. The matinee game was a slopfest, as both starting pitchers were ineffective, and the teams combined for eighteen walks, nine by each team. The Phillies won in come-from-behind fashion, as per usual, improving their record to 12-10.

The Phillies jumped to 2-0, and 4-2, leads against Mets' starter Oliver Perez. Perez displayed little in the way of command, with only thirty-six of his seventy-seven pitches in the strike zone.(The Mets have blamed the WBC for Perez' poor start to the season, but should consider the possibility that Perez just isn't very good.) Perez only lasted two and one-third innings, surrendering five hits and six walks. The Phillies should have gotten more than just four runs against the embattled Mets' starter.

Phillies' starter Jamie Moyer was only marginally better, permitting seven hits and four walks over five and two-thirds innings. Moyer was responsible for all five of the Mets' runs. Moyer (and Perez) were both troubled by Home Plate Umpire Adrian Johnson's randomly-generated strike zone, which was a crucial factor in the number of walks allowed by the two teams.

The Phillies, eventually, won the battle of bullpen attrition, though it took some luck/skill to do it. Clay Condrey, Ryan Madson, Brad Lidge, and Jack Taschner combined for four and one-third scoreless, but permitted seven baserunners. In the eighth inning, Jayson Werth cut down the potential go-ahead run at the plate, with a strong throw to newly-reactivated catcher Carlos Ruiz. Brad Lidge returned to the mound in the ninth inning, and stranded two, after walks of the unintentional, and intentional, variety. Jack Taschner entered the 5-5 game in the tenth, as the Phillies had already used their more skilled relief options. (If Chan Ho Park had gone deeper into Friday's game, perhaps the more reliable Chad Durbin would have been available Saturday.)Taschner allowed two singles in the tenth, and faced Carlos Beltran, with one out and runners on first and third. But Phillies' 3B Pedro Feliz fielded a hard-hit grounder, and began an inning-ending twin killing. Victorino's walk in the bottom of the frame ended matters, but Raul Ibanez' game-tying solo home run in the sixth was the biggest hit of the day.

Brad Lidge's return on Saturday lessened the concerns about his health. (Though his knee did seem to trouble him, and a DL stint might not be the worst idea.) Lidge's status aside, the Phillies are currently facing a number of pitching-related concerns, including the overworked bullpen, Cole Hamels' ankle injury, and Chan Ho Park's total lack of pitching ability. The Phillies have myriad viable options to address these issues, but quite a lot to consider, such as contract statuses, roster construction, and their upcoming schedule. Fortunately for Phillies' General Manager Ruben Amaro, I will now tell him exactly what to do, in a convenient bulletpoint format.

  • Demote Chan Ho Park to the bullpen as a long reliever, preferably to be used in games where he will have no role in the outcome. Promote J.A. Happ to the starting rotation.
  • Place Cole Hamels on the 15-Day DL, retroactive to Tuesday, April 28th. He will be eligible to return on Thursday, May 14th, against the Dodgers. There is no reason to rush him back from injury this early in the season, and there is every reason to minimize his workload, so as to prevent Verduccification. (This will require two starts from a AAA starter. The Phillies will also need a AAA starter on Saturday, May 16th, as they play a doubleheader against the Nationals.)
  • Add AAA reliever Tyler Walker to the 40-Man Roster, and recall him to take Hamels' spot on the 25-Man roster. Walker will help the overworked bullpen, and help the Phillies avoid using J.A. Happ, prior to his first start.
  • Start Brett Myers against St. Louis on Monday, on his regular four days of rest.
  • On Tuesday, DFA utility player Miguel Cairo. Cairo rarely plays, never contributes, and the Phillies are better off with an extra arm, at least in the short-term. For twelve games, the Phillies will go with thirteen pitchers, helping to keep the bullpen fresh.
  • Recall Kyle Kendrick from AAA to join the rotation, during Hamels' absence. Kendrick will take Cairo's spot on the 25-Man roster. Barring rainouts, Kendrick will start on Tuesday, Sunday, May 10th, and Saturday, May 16th (doubleheader). If Kendrick struggles on Tuesday, AAA starter Andrew Carpenter can make either (or both) of the next two starts. (Carpenter would be on only three days' rest on Tuesday, May 5th. Kendrick will be on his regular, fifth day.)
  • Start J.A. Happ Wednesday against the rival Mets, with four days of rest, following his thirty-one pitch relief appearance on Friday, May 1. Happ should be more effective with four days of rest, than going with three days on Tuesday. Starting Kendrick against St. Louis Tuesday, and saving Happ for the division-rivals New York Mets is also prudent.
  • DFA Jack Taschner on Thursday, May 14th, when Cole Hamels returns. (Unfortunately, the May 14th game is a day game, Hamels' tragic flaw.) Taschner is likely gone when J.C. Romero returns, anyway. (Alternatively, if Tyler Walker pitches poorly, he could be the one DFA'd.) Either Taschner or Walker would have to pass through waivers to go to AAA, but neither would be a huge loss to the Phils.
  • Option Kyle Kendrick back to Lehigh Valley on Saturday, May 16th, after his start in the first game that day against the Nationals. Replace him with AAA outfielder John Mayberry, Jr., or with an outfielder from MLB's DFA Pile for the second game. (Preferably the outfielder will be from the DFA Pile, making the MLB minimum, so Mayberry can play every day in AAA.) This will return the roster to a more preferable twelve pitchers and thirteen position players. (The four-man bench of Matt Stairs, Greg Dobbs, Eric Bruntlett, and Chris Coste will be a bit tight. Especially, in non-DH games, with Coste being the only backup catcher, and unlikely to pinch-hit.)
If Brad Lidge needs to go to the DL, that plan would need to be altered, with Gary Majewski or Mike Koplove being added to the 40-Man roster, and promoted from AAA, with Ryan Madson taking over the closer role. (Of course, by the time Ruben reads this, he will probably have already chosen an alternative plan of action.)

The Phillies play the rubber game of the series against the Mets on Sunday afternoon. Joe (the Lumber) Blanton starts for the Phils, opposed by Mets' starter John Maine. This starting matchup doesn't favor the Phillies, but if they can win games started by Chan Ho Park, they can win Blanton starts. Hopefully, Blanton will be able to eat more than his usual six innings.