J.A. Happ was on his way to his eleventh win, Thursday night in Pittsburgh. The rookie southpaw had a 2-1 lead, with two outs in the bottom of the eighth, and the Phils were on their way to winning two of three from the Pirates. Happ delivered a 1-1 pitch to Pittsburgh's Garrett Jones, attempting to throw a fastball away. Happ's offering was near the center of the plate, Jones drove it over the center field fence, and the Pirates went on to win, 3-2. Happ's one-hundred and fourteen pitch masterpiece resulted in the rookie's third loss of the season.
Cole Hamels was Cole Hamels on Wednesday night, in Pittsburgh. Hurling eight scoreless innings, throwing mid-90s velocity on the fastball, firing one-hundred and twenty-three masterful pitches, this was the Hamels we've been waiting to see. It's been almost a month, since Hamels last posted these kinds of results, in a victory over Arizona (July 28th). Chase Utley had provided all of the offense necessary, with a solo home run in the first inning. Ryan Madson, with closer Brad Lidge having the night off (after pitching four consecutive days), came on to close out the 1-0 Phillies' win. After striking out the Pirates' leadoff batter in the ninth, Madson got two strikes on the second batter, Brandon Moss. The Phils' reliever threw a changeup that caught too much of the plate, and Moss hit a game-tying homer. Fortunately, Ryan Howard hit a three-run homer in the top of the tenth, and Madson held Pittsburgh scoreless in the bottom of the frame. It would prove to be the only win of the series for the Phillies.
What did the glaring errors made by Madson and Happ have in common? Well, the fact that they never should have happened because they never should have been in position for them to happen. Each respective hurler's bad pitch, certainly, never should have been so glaring. On Wednesday night, the Phillies' offense was 1 for 9, with runners in scoring position. They scored only one run, on a solo home run, in the first nine innings. Madson should have been provided with a greater margin for error. Madson performed well, retiring six of the seven batters he faced. But all of the attention is focused on Madson's one bad pitch.
On Thursday night, the Phillies left another eight men on base, courtesy of an 0 for 5 performance with runners in scoring position. Two starts ago, Pittsburgh northpaw Charlie Morton allowed ten runs to the Cubs, while acquiring only three outs. Yet he survived six innings against the Phillies, permitting only a pair of runs. The Phils were then held scoreless for the final three frames, by journeyman Denny Bautista and erratic closer Matt Capps. Considering that the Phillies' bullpen was well-rested, perhaps Happ should not have even been in the game for one-hundred and fourteen pitches. After throwing so many pitches, even the physically-tough Happ must have been fatigued, at that point. The Phillies' hitters (and Manager) should have done better to support Happ.
The Phillies still lead the division by seven games. They still have a good shot at the best record in the National League. Their bats are too proficient to continue slumping with runners in scoring position, and their propensity for hitting homers without runners in scoring position may be enough to provide sufficient scoring. However, losing two of three to Pittsburgh is rather frustrating. With the bullpen getting rusty from being underworked, the starting pitchers (likely) getting fatigued from overwork, and some of the position players showing signs of needing some rest (Raul Ibanez, Pedro Feliz), Charlie Manuel needs to start making some adjustments. The Phillies are the best team in their division, but they need their players to have something left for the postseason. Manuel needs to reduce the physical drain on his charges, as well as the mental drain caused by so many close games, and difficult defeats. The Phillies need to stop putting themselves in the position where a single poorly-located pitch can cost them a victory. They are much too talented to be losing two of three to the Pittsburghs of MLB.
Showing posts with label J.A. Happ. Show all posts
Showing posts with label J.A. Happ. Show all posts
Friday, August 28, 2009
Sunday, August 16, 2009
A Day in the Life of Brett Myers
Brett Myers walked back to his car, after spending the morning speaking to at-risk youth. There weren't many positives to his extended stint on the disabled list, but the ability to serve the community on a daily basis was certainly one of them. Myers had so much to be thankful for, and was glad to have the opportunity to give something back.
As Myers reached his car, he caught a glimpse of a masked assailant behind him. Myers deftly dodged, as the assailant smashed his fist into the side of the vehicle. The future Phillies reliever had already driven away, by the time his attacker was ready to consider throwing a second punch. Myers knew he could have dispatched the attacker quite easily, but wasn't about to risk even the smallest of injuries. He knew better than that. He had a team that needed him. He had an important rehab start tomorrow night. As Myers navigated the streets of Ft. Lauderdale, he thought to himself, "that masked dude punched just like Billy Wagner."
Myers liked the arcade, and he enjoyed the playground, but giant, singing, robotic animals? Not so much. Of course, the robots were his son Colt's very favorite part. So Myers, dutifully, took his 4-year-old to Chuck E. Cheese this, and every, Friday afternoon.
Myers, nursing a Mr. Pibb, and his son sat in the front row, watching the melodic gyrations of a family of beavers. At least until the largest of the beavers approached, glaring menacingly. Myers jumped to his feet, ordered his son to go to the car, and stood between the ill-intentioned robot, and the other children. The beaver was quickly corralled by a combination of robotic animals, and well-trained Chuck E. Cheese associates. Myers left the confines of the family-fun restaurant, without further incident. At least until he reached the parking lot.
Myers didn't hear his son exclaim, "Dad! Catch!", until the baseball had bounced off the left side of his face. His rubbed his left eye, thinking to himself, "Sometimes I wish he didn't throw harder than Moyer."
Myers also didn't see the unfortunate conclusion to the non-robotic beaver's employment with Chuck E. Cheese's, Pizza Time Theater Inc. As Mets General Manager Omar Minaya, wearing all but the head of a beaver costume, was forcefully escorted from the premises by the authorities, he muttered to himself, "This still worked out better than Oliver Perez."
Myers was about to call it a night. He had enjoyed a quiet dinner, and two (or three?) beers, with his wife, his nanny, and two friends. As the party rose to leave the watering hole, a burly townie yelled at Myers, "Happ's success is due to his low BABIP!" As a professional athlete, Myers had plenty of experience, in dealing with such instigators. Myers replied calmly, "His BABIP is regressing to the mean, but Happ has sustained his high level of success." Another patron yelled, threateningly, "It's his mechanics! He hides the ball! Like Randy Wolf!" Two groups of local roughnecks approached Myers' party, each from opposite sides. Flanked by his two buddies, Myers liked his chances in the inevitable altercation. But he had a responsibility to his ballclub. Myers and his party quickly withdrew, as the two opposing parties converged. With sabermetric fury evident in the eyes of one group, and anti-statistical malice filling the hearts of the other, the ensuing battle would be a ferocious one.
Myers woke up on his concrete driveway. The last thing he remembered was relaxing in the back seat of the Escalade, as his nanny drove home. His wife, Kim, exclaimed, "We opened the door, so we could wake you, and you fell right out!" The nanny handed Myers a towel, which he used to dab the blood dripping from his wounded left eye. "As long as it's just my eye, and not my arm, I'm still pitching Saturday", Myers thought to himself. "It's nothing", Myers told his wife. "I'll call Ruben tomorrow."
As Myers reached his car, he caught a glimpse of a masked assailant behind him. Myers deftly dodged, as the assailant smashed his fist into the side of the vehicle. The future Phillies reliever had already driven away, by the time his attacker was ready to consider throwing a second punch. Myers knew he could have dispatched the attacker quite easily, but wasn't about to risk even the smallest of injuries. He knew better than that. He had a team that needed him. He had an important rehab start tomorrow night. As Myers navigated the streets of Ft. Lauderdale, he thought to himself, "that masked dude punched just like Billy Wagner."
Myers liked the arcade, and he enjoyed the playground, but giant, singing, robotic animals? Not so much. Of course, the robots were his son Colt's very favorite part. So Myers, dutifully, took his 4-year-old to Chuck E. Cheese this, and every, Friday afternoon.
Myers, nursing a Mr. Pibb, and his son sat in the front row, watching the melodic gyrations of a family of beavers. At least until the largest of the beavers approached, glaring menacingly. Myers jumped to his feet, ordered his son to go to the car, and stood between the ill-intentioned robot, and the other children. The beaver was quickly corralled by a combination of robotic animals, and well-trained Chuck E. Cheese associates. Myers left the confines of the family-fun restaurant, without further incident. At least until he reached the parking lot.
Myers didn't hear his son exclaim, "Dad! Catch!", until the baseball had bounced off the left side of his face. His rubbed his left eye, thinking to himself, "Sometimes I wish he didn't throw harder than Moyer."
Myers also didn't see the unfortunate conclusion to the non-robotic beaver's employment with Chuck E. Cheese's, Pizza Time Theater Inc. As Mets General Manager Omar Minaya, wearing all but the head of a beaver costume, was forcefully escorted from the premises by the authorities, he muttered to himself, "This still worked out better than Oliver Perez."
Myers was about to call it a night. He had enjoyed a quiet dinner, and two (or three?) beers, with his wife, his nanny, and two friends. As the party rose to leave the watering hole, a burly townie yelled at Myers, "Happ's success is due to his low BABIP!" As a professional athlete, Myers had plenty of experience, in dealing with such instigators. Myers replied calmly, "His BABIP is regressing to the mean, but Happ has sustained his high level of success." Another patron yelled, threateningly, "It's his mechanics! He hides the ball! Like Randy Wolf!" Two groups of local roughnecks approached Myers' party, each from opposite sides. Flanked by his two buddies, Myers liked his chances in the inevitable altercation. But he had a responsibility to his ballclub. Myers and his party quickly withdrew, as the two opposing parties converged. With sabermetric fury evident in the eyes of one group, and anti-statistical malice filling the hearts of the other, the ensuing battle would be a ferocious one.
Myers woke up on his concrete driveway. The last thing he remembered was relaxing in the back seat of the Escalade, as his nanny drove home. His wife, Kim, exclaimed, "We opened the door, so we could wake you, and you fell right out!" The nanny handed Myers a towel, which he used to dab the blood dripping from his wounded left eye. "As long as it's just my eye, and not my arm, I'm still pitching Saturday", Myers thought to himself. "It's nothing", Myers told his wife. "I'll call Ruben tomorrow."
Reverse Split
Brad Lidge got the job done Friday night. Called in to save a 3-2 Phillies win, Lidge retired the first Braves' batter, Yunel Escobar, on a hard line drive to right field. Adam LaRoche followed with a single, and pinch-runner Matt Diaz stole second base. After whiffing Ryan Church for the second out, Lidge walked Greg Norton. Nate McLouth came to the plate, with the game-tying run on second, and the game-winning run on first. McLouth drove the ball to deep left field, but the ballpark held it, and left fielder Raul Ibanez grabbed it on the warning track.
Lidge was going for his second save, in as many games, as he entered Saturday's game. Protecting a 3-2 lead, Lidge induced a Garret Anderson ground ball to second base. But Chase Utley misplayed the ball into a leadoff single. The Braves opted to sacrifice, and Matt Diaz was directed to lay down the bunt. Diaz' bunt was fielded by Lidge, who looked towards second, bobbled the ball, and threw it down the first base line. Anderson scored the tying run on the play, and Diaz ended up on third base. Instead of one out, and the tying run on second base, Lidge's miscues had the game tied, no one out, and the winning run only ninety feet away. An intentional walk, and a (likely) un-intentional intentional walk, loaded the bases. Omar Infante hit a ground ball, between second and third base. Under different circumstances, the ball would have visited shortstop Jimmy Rollins' glove, briefly, before landing in first baseman Ryan Howard's glove. Infante's ground ball bounded past the drawn-in infield, for a game-winning single.
Lidge's blown save on Saturday has reinvigorated the calls for Lidge to removed from the closer's role. If the defensively-adept Utley makes that play, the inning could have gone very differently. We could be talking about how Lidge is, finally, getting his game together, and that the only problem left to fix is Eric Bruntlett.
That wouldn't exactly be deserved, either, as Lidge should have had a blown save on Friday night. Either way, his performance this weekend has not instilled any confidence. What are the Phillies' options? Well, they can continue to go with Lidge, or they can give Ryan Madson another shot as closer. Madson did not do well, earlier this season, when he was the closer during a Lidge DL stint. But he has improved since then, and probably couldn't do worse than Lidge has done. I'd like to see Madson get another shot to close, and think he could succeed. But not necessarily now, and not at the possible expense of what remains of Lidge's increasingly-fragile confidence. The best Phillies' team, likely, includes an effective Madson, setting up for an effective Lidge. Expect the Phillies to continue to use Lidge to close games, at least for the immediate future, in hopes that he will start to get better results. I wouldn't go as far as saying that Saturday's blown save was a blessing in disguise, but the Phillies certainly need to figure out the closing situation. Blown saves can be a lot more costly, in the short series of the postseason.
Almost lost amidst Lidge's struggles was another, insidious, culprit. If the Phillies hadn't gone 1 for 12, with runners in scoring position, Saturday's game may not have even included a Lidge appearance. The Phillies had numerous chances to at least add to their one-run lead, if not turn the contest into one that even Tyler Walker could finish. Over time, more of those at bats are bound to be successful. Until then, a few less strikeouts, and a few more sacrifice flies, would be quite helpful.
Besides Lidge, and the RISP conversion issues, the Phillies have had a good weekend. Tremendous defensive play by outfielders Shane Victorino and Jayson Werth, and homers by Chase Utley and Ryan Howard, keyed Friday's victory. (Braves Manager Bobby Cox, inexplicably, removed southpaw Mike Gonzalez from the game, and allowed Ryan Howard to face northpaw Rafael Soriano. Howard's solo homer off Soriano provided the final margin.) Joe Blanton was outstanding (again) on Friday, permitting only one earned run (and one unearned run), in seven innings. His ERA is all the way down to 3.88, and Blanton is eating some serious innings (at least six and two-thirds in each of his last seven starts). Cole Hamels almost matched Blanton's results in his start on Saturday, permitting only a pair of runs (three hits, four walks/two whiffs), in six innings, despite not having his best stuff.
Another hot Phillies starting pitcher, J.A. Happ, is on the mound Sunday night. Javier Vazquez will start for the Braves, in what could be another tight game. With Lidge and Madson both having pitched in consecutive games, it's unclear who would close tonight for the Phillies. (I would bet on Madson, as he has thrown a combined fifteen pitches, in the weekend's first two games.) Hopefully, Happ and the Phillies' bats will do enough early in the game, that a save won't be necessary. But I'm confident that Madson can do the job, even if Joe Morgan has, probably, never even heard of him.
Lidge was going for his second save, in as many games, as he entered Saturday's game. Protecting a 3-2 lead, Lidge induced a Garret Anderson ground ball to second base. But Chase Utley misplayed the ball into a leadoff single. The Braves opted to sacrifice, and Matt Diaz was directed to lay down the bunt. Diaz' bunt was fielded by Lidge, who looked towards second, bobbled the ball, and threw it down the first base line. Anderson scored the tying run on the play, and Diaz ended up on third base. Instead of one out, and the tying run on second base, Lidge's miscues had the game tied, no one out, and the winning run only ninety feet away. An intentional walk, and a (likely) un-intentional intentional walk, loaded the bases. Omar Infante hit a ground ball, between second and third base. Under different circumstances, the ball would have visited shortstop Jimmy Rollins' glove, briefly, before landing in first baseman Ryan Howard's glove. Infante's ground ball bounded past the drawn-in infield, for a game-winning single.
Lidge's blown save on Saturday has reinvigorated the calls for Lidge to removed from the closer's role. If the defensively-adept Utley makes that play, the inning could have gone very differently. We could be talking about how Lidge is, finally, getting his game together, and that the only problem left to fix is Eric Bruntlett.
That wouldn't exactly be deserved, either, as Lidge should have had a blown save on Friday night. Either way, his performance this weekend has not instilled any confidence. What are the Phillies' options? Well, they can continue to go with Lidge, or they can give Ryan Madson another shot as closer. Madson did not do well, earlier this season, when he was the closer during a Lidge DL stint. But he has improved since then, and probably couldn't do worse than Lidge has done. I'd like to see Madson get another shot to close, and think he could succeed. But not necessarily now, and not at the possible expense of what remains of Lidge's increasingly-fragile confidence. The best Phillies' team, likely, includes an effective Madson, setting up for an effective Lidge. Expect the Phillies to continue to use Lidge to close games, at least for the immediate future, in hopes that he will start to get better results. I wouldn't go as far as saying that Saturday's blown save was a blessing in disguise, but the Phillies certainly need to figure out the closing situation. Blown saves can be a lot more costly, in the short series of the postseason.
Almost lost amidst Lidge's struggles was another, insidious, culprit. If the Phillies hadn't gone 1 for 12, with runners in scoring position, Saturday's game may not have even included a Lidge appearance. The Phillies had numerous chances to at least add to their one-run lead, if not turn the contest into one that even Tyler Walker could finish. Over time, more of those at bats are bound to be successful. Until then, a few less strikeouts, and a few more sacrifice flies, would be quite helpful.
Besides Lidge, and the RISP conversion issues, the Phillies have had a good weekend. Tremendous defensive play by outfielders Shane Victorino and Jayson Werth, and homers by Chase Utley and Ryan Howard, keyed Friday's victory. (Braves Manager Bobby Cox, inexplicably, removed southpaw Mike Gonzalez from the game, and allowed Ryan Howard to face northpaw Rafael Soriano. Howard's solo homer off Soriano provided the final margin.) Joe Blanton was outstanding (again) on Friday, permitting only one earned run (and one unearned run), in seven innings. His ERA is all the way down to 3.88, and Blanton is eating some serious innings (at least six and two-thirds in each of his last seven starts). Cole Hamels almost matched Blanton's results in his start on Saturday, permitting only a pair of runs (three hits, four walks/two whiffs), in six innings, despite not having his best stuff.
Another hot Phillies starting pitcher, J.A. Happ, is on the mound Sunday night. Javier Vazquez will start for the Braves, in what could be another tight game. With Lidge and Madson both having pitched in consecutive games, it's unclear who would close tonight for the Phillies. (I would bet on Madson, as he has thrown a combined fifteen pitches, in the weekend's first two games.) Hopefully, Happ and the Phillies' bats will do enough early in the game, that a save won't be necessary. But I'm confident that Madson can do the job, even if Joe Morgan has, probably, never even heard of him.
Thursday, August 13, 2009
Phillies Respond to Manuel's Meeting, Sweep Cubs
Phillies' Manager Charlie Manuel picks his spots, in determining when to meet with his entire team. Last weekend should have been a memorable one, with a Harry Kalas plaque installed on the Wall of Fame, the greatest of each former Green(e) in attendance (Tyler, Tommy), and a chance to increase their divisional lead over the Marlins. It turned into a debacle, with Shane Victorino ejected from his outfield position, a pregame "Batting Challenge" that included one home run, and three pitchers batting (out of six participants), and Eric Bruntlett remaining on the active roster throughout all three games. Not to mention that the Phillies lost all three games. As there wasn't a UFC event scheduled for immediately after Sunday's loss, that was a very opportune time for a team meeting.
The meeting had a most efficacious effect, as the Phillies responded in impressive, WFC fashion. The Phillies used strong starting pitching, and a reawakened offense, in rolling to a three-game road sweep of the Cubs. Hopefully, the Phils can continue to ride their new momentum, this weekend in Atlanta.
Tuesday's opener at Wrigley Field would have been Phillies co-ace Cliff Lee's fifth day, but the Phillies opted to push Lee back two days, when inserting Pedro Martinez into the rotation. J.A. Happ made the start, with one extra day of rest, after being allowed to throw an obscene 127 pitches in his previous appearance. The draining complete game shutout would have been good reason to push Happ back a few days, and Lee's strong form good reason to keep him on his regular turn. Another good reason to start Lee on Tuesday: he could have returned, on regular rest, for the Sunday night finale against the divisional rival Braves.
Happ permitted seven hits and four walks, in his 100-pitch, six-inning effort. Usually, eleven baserunners in only six innings will result in considerable damage. However, Happ only allowed two of those runners to score. Happ left with the score tied, but after the Phillies took the lead, Brad Lidge contributed his seventh blown save of his imperfect season. The Phillies were not to be denied, however, as Ben Francisco broke the 3-3 tie, with a solo homer in the twelfth inning. Chad Durbin's first appearance, since his DL stint, was a successful one. Durbin closed out the 4-3 win, picking up his second save of the season, with a scoreless twelfth.
The Cubs would get no closer to a victory in the series. Pedro Martinez made his Phillies' debut on Wednesday, scattering seven hits and a walk, in five mediocre innings. Martinez tired in the fifth, when he allowed two, of the three, runs he surrendered. Fortunately, he was pitching with a 12-1 lead, after the Phillies had enjoyed a monstrous eight-run fourth inning. With an eleven-run lead, courtesy of three-run homers by Jimmy Rollins and Raul Ibanez, Martinez' adequate outing was sufficient.
The Phillies had saved Cliff Lee for Thursday, when he would have the opportunity to ensure the Phils' first sweep at Wrigley, since the Kevin Gross-era 1984 team. Lee would have to win under difficult circumstances. Relievers Chan Ho Park, Scott Eyre, and Tyler Walker were unavailable, as they were attempting to track down the bleacher bonehead who doused outfielder Shane Victorino with a beer, during Wednesday night's game. (The three crime-fighting hurlers brought the culprit to justice, capturing him behind a Sonic restaurant in Aurora, Illinois. They proceeded to celebrate with Fried Ice Cream Blasts, after turning the heinous criminal over to the authorities.)
Lee had little need for relief, surrendering only a single run in eight innings, in picking up his third consecutive win as a Phillie. Lee was allowed to throw 122 pitches, which would have been a somewhat questionable move, if the bullpen hadn't been so short-handed. Ryan Howard and Pedro Feliz hit homers, and the Phillies cruised to a 6-1 win. The Phillies lead the Marlins by 4.5 games, and the Braves by 5 games. If only every series could be this easy.
The meeting had a most efficacious effect, as the Phillies responded in impressive, WFC fashion. The Phillies used strong starting pitching, and a reawakened offense, in rolling to a three-game road sweep of the Cubs. Hopefully, the Phils can continue to ride their new momentum, this weekend in Atlanta.
Tuesday's opener at Wrigley Field would have been Phillies co-ace Cliff Lee's fifth day, but the Phillies opted to push Lee back two days, when inserting Pedro Martinez into the rotation. J.A. Happ made the start, with one extra day of rest, after being allowed to throw an obscene 127 pitches in his previous appearance. The draining complete game shutout would have been good reason to push Happ back a few days, and Lee's strong form good reason to keep him on his regular turn. Another good reason to start Lee on Tuesday: he could have returned, on regular rest, for the Sunday night finale against the divisional rival Braves.
Happ permitted seven hits and four walks, in his 100-pitch, six-inning effort. Usually, eleven baserunners in only six innings will result in considerable damage. However, Happ only allowed two of those runners to score. Happ left with the score tied, but after the Phillies took the lead, Brad Lidge contributed his seventh blown save of his imperfect season. The Phillies were not to be denied, however, as Ben Francisco broke the 3-3 tie, with a solo homer in the twelfth inning. Chad Durbin's first appearance, since his DL stint, was a successful one. Durbin closed out the 4-3 win, picking up his second save of the season, with a scoreless twelfth.
The Cubs would get no closer to a victory in the series. Pedro Martinez made his Phillies' debut on Wednesday, scattering seven hits and a walk, in five mediocre innings. Martinez tired in the fifth, when he allowed two, of the three, runs he surrendered. Fortunately, he was pitching with a 12-1 lead, after the Phillies had enjoyed a monstrous eight-run fourth inning. With an eleven-run lead, courtesy of three-run homers by Jimmy Rollins and Raul Ibanez, Martinez' adequate outing was sufficient.
The Phillies had saved Cliff Lee for Thursday, when he would have the opportunity to ensure the Phils' first sweep at Wrigley, since the Kevin Gross-era 1984 team. Lee would have to win under difficult circumstances. Relievers Chan Ho Park, Scott Eyre, and Tyler Walker were unavailable, as they were attempting to track down the bleacher bonehead who doused outfielder Shane Victorino with a beer, during Wednesday night's game. (The three crime-fighting hurlers brought the culprit to justice, capturing him behind a Sonic restaurant in Aurora, Illinois. They proceeded to celebrate with Fried Ice Cream Blasts, after turning the heinous criminal over to the authorities.)
Lee had little need for relief, surrendering only a single run in eight innings, in picking up his third consecutive win as a Phillie. Lee was allowed to throw 122 pitches, which would have been a somewhat questionable move, if the bullpen hadn't been so short-handed. Ryan Howard and Pedro Feliz hit homers, and the Phillies cruised to a 6-1 win. The Phillies lead the Marlins by 4.5 games, and the Braves by 5 games. If only every series could be this easy.
Friday, August 7, 2009
Happ Dominates Rockies, Amaro Makes Up His Mind
J.A. Happ, pitching with the spectre of a return to the bullpen hanging over him, shut out the Colorado Rockies on Wednesday. Happ limited Colorado to four hits and two walks, while striking out ten. Happ was throwing low-90s heat, as late as the ninth inning, when he retired the side in order, to complete the Phillies' 7-0 victory. It was an electric atmosphere at Citizens Bank Park, and the synapses of General Manager Ruben Amaro's brain were similarly charged:
Top of 1st: BB (CS), GO, GO WE: 54.8%
Amaro: I think I'll have a cheesesteak tonight.
Bottom of 1st: Howard RBI single, Phillies lead 1-0, WE: 60.3%
Top of second: K,K,FO, Phillies lead 1-0, WE: 65.6%
Amaro: Two strong from Happ- the sixth and seventh innings won't be a problem, for long.
Bottom of 2nd: Feliz HR, Rollins 2R HR, Phillies lead 4-0, WE: 85.8%
Top of third: GO,GO,1B,2B,K, Phillies lead 4-0, WE: 89.4%
Amaro: Maybe we'll work Happ into the eighth-inning mix.
Top of fourth: FO,K,GO, Phillies lead 4-0, WE: 91.2%
Amaro: I could probably pull off the hat Sarge is wearing tonight.
Top of fifth: 1B,GIDP,LO, Phillies lead 4-0, WE: 93.1%
Amaro: Cheesesteak was not a good choice.
Bottom of fifth: Werth 3R HR, Phillies lead 7-0, WE: 98.5%
Top of sixth: K,K,FO, Phillies lead 7-0, WE: 99.3%
Amaro: Jamie and Pedro could probably strike these guys out. Yesterday was just a bad day for Moyer.
Top of seventh: 2B,FO,K,FO, Phillies lead 7-0, WE: 99.7%
Amaro: Maybe keeping Happ in the rotation would be a good idea. He has been our most effective starter, and whatnot.
Top of eighth: BB,FO,K,FC, Phillies lead 7-0, WE: 99.9%
Amaro: OK. Happ is in, Pedro is in. Just have to break it to Jamie...
Top of ninth: K,FO,K, Phillies WIN 7-0
Amaro: Why is Charlie leaving our #2 starter in for 127 pitches?!!
Top of 1st: BB (CS), GO, GO WE: 54.8%
Amaro: I think I'll have a cheesesteak tonight.
Bottom of 1st: Howard RBI single, Phillies lead 1-0, WE: 60.3%
Top of second: K,K,FO, Phillies lead 1-0, WE: 65.6%
Amaro: Two strong from Happ- the sixth and seventh innings won't be a problem, for long.
Bottom of 2nd: Feliz HR, Rollins 2R HR, Phillies lead 4-0, WE: 85.8%
Top of third: GO,GO,1B,2B,K, Phillies lead 4-0, WE: 89.4%
Amaro: Maybe we'll work Happ into the eighth-inning mix.
Top of fourth: FO,K,GO, Phillies lead 4-0, WE: 91.2%
Amaro: I could probably pull off the hat Sarge is wearing tonight.
Top of fifth: 1B,GIDP,LO, Phillies lead 4-0, WE: 93.1%
Amaro: Cheesesteak was not a good choice.
Bottom of fifth: Werth 3R HR, Phillies lead 7-0, WE: 98.5%
Top of sixth: K,K,FO, Phillies lead 7-0, WE: 99.3%
Amaro: Jamie and Pedro could probably strike these guys out. Yesterday was just a bad day for Moyer.
Top of seventh: 2B,FO,K,FO, Phillies lead 7-0, WE: 99.7%
Amaro: Maybe keeping Happ in the rotation would be a good idea. He has been our most effective starter, and whatnot.
Top of eighth: BB,FO,K,FC, Phillies lead 7-0, WE: 99.9%
Amaro: OK. Happ is in, Pedro is in. Just have to break it to Jamie...
Top of ninth: K,FO,K, Phillies WIN 7-0
Amaro: Why is Charlie leaving our #2 starter in for 127 pitches?!!
Wednesday, August 5, 2009
Moyer and Phillies Continue Patterns of Mediocrity, in Loss to Rockies
The Phillies had enjoyed a day off on Monday, had Shane Victorino returning to the lineup, and had Eric Bruntlett and Paul Bako ("The Bash-less Brothers?""The Worstest Backups You Know?") returning to the bench. With Jason Hammel (4.66 ERA) on the mound for Colorado, and the game to be contested in the homer-friendly confines of Citizens Bank Park, the Phils should have been able to end their two-game losing streak. But their difficulties getting hits, succeeding with runners in scoring position, and scoring actual runs, continued. The Phillies left seven more men on base, converting nine hits and a walk, into only three runs. Jimmy Rollins was responsible for a pair of those runs, with a two-run homer. The Phillies could not overcome nine strikeouts, and a poor outing by starter Jamie Moyer, falling to Colorado, 8-3.
Jamie Moyer continued his pattern of struggling every-other start, as well as his pattern of having difficulties against teams that do not have atrocious offenses. Moyer lasted two un-retired batters into the sixth inning, in earning his eighth loss of the season. Moyer's final line: five innings, six hits, six runs (four walk/three whiffs/one home run allowed). The soft-tossing veteran increased his ERA to 5.55. Moyer has two-hundred fifty-six wins to his record, and a guaranteed $6.5 million plus, on his contract for 2010. He has also been the weakest link, in a rotation that could soon include Pedro Martinez. The Phillies have some difficult choices to make for their rotation, and Moyer's poor performances are making the decision-making all the more burdensome.
Rodrigo Lopez relieved Moyer in the sixth inning, and made a case for his own removal from the pitching equation. In his first relief outing for the Phils, Lopez permitted two inherited runners to score, as well as two of his own runners. Two innings, five hits, two runs - those are the type of results that could find Lopez looking for a new organization for which to ply his current trade. Continued performances like these, and both veteran hurlers could be spending September merely observing the Phillies' pursuit of the pennant.
Tyler Walker and Brad Lidge each pitched a scoreless inning, with Lidge even getting his ERA below 7.00 (now 6.92). Walker's previous outings, however, have likely punched his ticket back to Lehigh Valley (AAA), with a departure scheduled for later this week. Lidge's contract, and perfect 2008 season, make his leash a bit longer, but he needs an improved August, if he expects to remain in the closer's role. Ryan Madson is a satisfactory option to finish games, and Brett Myers could be, once he completes his minor league rehab. The erratic performances from the offense will merely result in patience, as the lineup is too good to slump for long. The bullpen, and the back-of-the-rotation, could be in a state of flux for the remainder of the regular season.
J.A. Happ gets the start for the Phillies on Wednesday, as they host Colorado in the second, of three, games. It could be the last start for the rookie southpaw, if the Phillies decide to reallocate him to the bullpen, in favor of Pedro Martinez. Though Happ's success has been largely BABIP-fueled, he is still a better starting option than Jamie Moyer, at this point in their respective careers. A good start by Happ on Wednesday could help the Phils snap their losing streak, as well as decrease the likelihood of the ineffective Moyer being allowed to remain in the rotation.
Jamie Moyer continued his pattern of struggling every-other start, as well as his pattern of having difficulties against teams that do not have atrocious offenses. Moyer lasted two un-retired batters into the sixth inning, in earning his eighth loss of the season. Moyer's final line: five innings, six hits, six runs (four walk/three whiffs/one home run allowed). The soft-tossing veteran increased his ERA to 5.55. Moyer has two-hundred fifty-six wins to his record, and a guaranteed $6.5 million plus, on his contract for 2010. He has also been the weakest link, in a rotation that could soon include Pedro Martinez. The Phillies have some difficult choices to make for their rotation, and Moyer's poor performances are making the decision-making all the more burdensome.
Rodrigo Lopez relieved Moyer in the sixth inning, and made a case for his own removal from the pitching equation. In his first relief outing for the Phils, Lopez permitted two inherited runners to score, as well as two of his own runners. Two innings, five hits, two runs - those are the type of results that could find Lopez looking for a new organization for which to ply his current trade. Continued performances like these, and both veteran hurlers could be spending September merely observing the Phillies' pursuit of the pennant.
Tyler Walker and Brad Lidge each pitched a scoreless inning, with Lidge even getting his ERA below 7.00 (now 6.92). Walker's previous outings, however, have likely punched his ticket back to Lehigh Valley (AAA), with a departure scheduled for later this week. Lidge's contract, and perfect 2008 season, make his leash a bit longer, but he needs an improved August, if he expects to remain in the closer's role. Ryan Madson is a satisfactory option to finish games, and Brett Myers could be, once he completes his minor league rehab. The erratic performances from the offense will merely result in patience, as the lineup is too good to slump for long. The bullpen, and the back-of-the-rotation, could be in a state of flux for the remainder of the regular season.
J.A. Happ gets the start for the Phillies on Wednesday, as they host Colorado in the second, of three, games. It could be the last start for the rookie southpaw, if the Phillies decide to reallocate him to the bullpen, in favor of Pedro Martinez. Though Happ's success has been largely BABIP-fueled, he is still a better starting option than Jamie Moyer, at this point in their respective careers. A good start by Happ on Wednesday could help the Phils snap their losing streak, as well as decrease the likelihood of the ineffective Moyer being allowed to remain in the rotation.
Monday, August 3, 2009
Phils, Hamels Unlucky in Frisco
Phillies' starter J.A. Happ trailed the Cardinals, 1-0, in the sixth inning at Citizens Bank Park. Happ's July 24th start was progressing well, until St. Louis' bloops and dunks began to fall for hits, with unerring accuracy. Happ was touched up for six hits, and four runs, in the painful frame. Happ had enjoyed a season of astoundingly good luck, but BABIP chose that particular occasion to take several large strides towards the mean. Happ's ten-hit, five-run outing increased his ERA from 2.68, to 2.97.
Phillies' starter Cole Hamels was cruising along in the bottom of the fifth, on Sunday, with two outs, a 3-1 lead, and pitcher Barry Zito at the plate. Hamels seemed well on his way to matching Friday's gem by the Phillies' other ace, Cliff Lee. Hamels broke Zito's bat with his offering, and the ball was propelled, harmlessly, towards the center of the diamond.
In 2008, when Hamels enjoyed the season that made him a household name, that broken bat bloop might have found the glove of an infielder. Unfortunately, it's 2009, a season where Hamels has been tormented by unlikely injuries, and unfortunate bounces. Zito's ball dropped for a single. Zito's fortunate hit was followed by a bloop single, a just-fair double, and an error by 1B Ryan Howard on a soft grounder. Hamels induced an inning-ending groundout, but the 3-1 Phillies' lead had become a 4-3 deficit. Hamels started the bottom of the sixth, allowing a ground-ball single, a ground-ball double, another ground-ball single, and an intentional walk. He was removed from the game at that point, relieved by Chan Ho Park, who permitted a two-run single to the second batter he faced. Hamels' final line: five innings, ten hits, seven runs (six earned), two walks/two whiffs. His record fell to 7-6, with a 4.68 ERA. Not very ace-like numbers.
It could be argued, however, that Hamels has pitched very well this season, and that he has even shown improvement over his outstanding 2008. Hamels ranks seventeenth in the NL, with a FIP of 3.81. Seventeenth in the league isn't exactly impressive, but it is much more impressive than his overall ERA ranking. The difference between his ERA, and his FIP, is a whopping .87. Only one NL pitcher (Paul Maholm) has a greater discrepancy. Hamels' ERA doesn't accurately reflect his level of effectiveness. A much better reflection is provided by Hamels' K/BB ratio of 4.65. Hamels has a higher degree of control over his K/BB, and he ranks fourth (.01 behind Tim Lincecum) in the NL.
Hamels has been hurt the most, by what he has the least control over, what happens after the bat hits the ball. Hamels' .335 BABIP is the fifth-highest in the NL. (J.A. Happ is second-lowest, at .254.) The ability/range of the defense behind Hamels affects his BABIP, as well. As the Phillies are very strong defensively, it appears that poor luck accounts for a significant portion of that unwieldy BABIP. (By way of comparison, Hamels was much more fortunate in 2008, sporting a .270 BABIP, which was the third lowest in the NL.) Hamels' BABIP is likely to regress towards the mean, and his results are likely to improve. Nothing to be overly concerned about.
The lack of success of the Phillies' bats on the West Coast isn't anything to be overly concerned about, either. They've also suffered from some poor luck, and are bound to improve. (Even Bako and Bruntlett could improve, albeit only towards a .450 OPS.) With (finally!) a day off on Monday, and a return to their homer-friendly home park, the fatigued Phils should be ready for the difficult matchups (Colorado, Florida) they face this week.
Phillies' starter Cole Hamels was cruising along in the bottom of the fifth, on Sunday, with two outs, a 3-1 lead, and pitcher Barry Zito at the plate. Hamels seemed well on his way to matching Friday's gem by the Phillies' other ace, Cliff Lee. Hamels broke Zito's bat with his offering, and the ball was propelled, harmlessly, towards the center of the diamond.
In 2008, when Hamels enjoyed the season that made him a household name, that broken bat bloop might have found the glove of an infielder. Unfortunately, it's 2009, a season where Hamels has been tormented by unlikely injuries, and unfortunate bounces. Zito's ball dropped for a single. Zito's fortunate hit was followed by a bloop single, a just-fair double, and an error by 1B Ryan Howard on a soft grounder. Hamels induced an inning-ending groundout, but the 3-1 Phillies' lead had become a 4-3 deficit. Hamels started the bottom of the sixth, allowing a ground-ball single, a ground-ball double, another ground-ball single, and an intentional walk. He was removed from the game at that point, relieved by Chan Ho Park, who permitted a two-run single to the second batter he faced. Hamels' final line: five innings, ten hits, seven runs (six earned), two walks/two whiffs. His record fell to 7-6, with a 4.68 ERA. Not very ace-like numbers.
It could be argued, however, that Hamels has pitched very well this season, and that he has even shown improvement over his outstanding 2008. Hamels ranks seventeenth in the NL, with a FIP of 3.81. Seventeenth in the league isn't exactly impressive, but it is much more impressive than his overall ERA ranking. The difference between his ERA, and his FIP, is a whopping .87. Only one NL pitcher (Paul Maholm) has a greater discrepancy. Hamels' ERA doesn't accurately reflect his level of effectiveness. A much better reflection is provided by Hamels' K/BB ratio of 4.65. Hamels has a higher degree of control over his K/BB, and he ranks fourth (.01 behind Tim Lincecum) in the NL.
Hamels has been hurt the most, by what he has the least control over, what happens after the bat hits the ball. Hamels' .335 BABIP is the fifth-highest in the NL. (J.A. Happ is second-lowest, at .254.) The ability/range of the defense behind Hamels affects his BABIP, as well. As the Phillies are very strong defensively, it appears that poor luck accounts for a significant portion of that unwieldy BABIP. (By way of comparison, Hamels was much more fortunate in 2008, sporting a .270 BABIP, which was the third lowest in the NL.) Hamels' BABIP is likely to regress towards the mean, and his results are likely to improve. Nothing to be overly concerned about.
The lack of success of the Phillies' bats on the West Coast isn't anything to be overly concerned about, either. They've also suffered from some poor luck, and are bound to improve. (Even Bako and Bruntlett could improve, albeit only towards a .450 OPS.) With (finally!) a day off on Monday, and a return to their homer-friendly home park, the fatigued Phils should be ready for the difficult matchups (Colorado, Florida) they face this week.
Thursday, July 30, 2009
Major Transaction Action (7/30): A Very Special Episode...
The acquisition of Cliff Lee and Ben Francisco from the Indians, in exchange for four minor leaguers, sent waves of transactions rippling through the Phillies organization. Some interesting decisions were made, with some rather difficult choices to be made in the immediate future. The Phillies currently have six starters (for five spots in the rotation) at the major league level. With Pedro Martinez making his second (and, possibly, last?) rehab start in AAA on Friday, a seventh viable starting option is almost ready. Having seven rotational alternatives is the type of depth that most major league clubs would love to have, but with the trade deadline less than a day away, what are the Phillies going to do with this luxury of riches?
Why not go to a six-man rotation?
Would you rather aces Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee combine for 40% of the starts, or 33% of the starts? Would you like the sixth-best starter making 0% of the starts, or 16% of the starts? The starters are accustomed to pitching on every fifth day, so switching to the sixth day, at the point in the season, would be disruptive to their routines. Moving one of the six starters to the 'pen would also make the jettisoning of one of the team's weakest links (Tyler Walker?) possible.
Who will be The Chosen Ones?
Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee, and Joe Blanton are the top three. Rodrigo Lopez will, likely, be moved to the bullpen, after making his Thursday start. Pedro Martinez may be kept in AAA for another start, or two, after Friday, as much to get him more innings, as to delay the necessity of the next decision.
Does J.A. Happ, or Jamie Moyer, stay in the rotation, when Martinez is ready to return to MLB? Happ has been the Phillies' best (not including the recently-acquired Lee), and most consistent, starter this season. He also has a .254 BABIP, 83.5 LOB%, and 4.19 FIP, which all point to rough seas ahead for the young southpaw. (I'm still hoping Happ will be dealt before Friday's trade deadline, as Happ's trade value might be at a career high.) Happ started the season in the bullpen, might benefit from a reduced innings workload (166 IP in 2008, 106 IP in 2009) for the rest of the regular season, and his inevitable regression may be less painful in that role.
Jamie Moyer has had a mediocre season, though he has had better results over the past month. He has 256 career wins, no bullpen experience, and $6.5 million owed him in 2010. It doesn't seem likely that he'll be demoted to the bullpen.
Happ will, probably, be the odd man out in the regular season rotation, but Moyer will, likely, be the odd man out on the postseason roster.
(Martinez could also be used in the bullpen, but it seems likely that he will get at least a few starts, before that type of move is made. Martinez and Happ seem to be the frontrunners for the fourth, and last, spot in the postseason rotation.)
The Phillies made two roster moves on Thursday, with many more projected over the next week.
OF John Mayberry was optioned to Lehigh Valley (AAA). OF Ben Francisco was added to the Phillies' roster. Francisco gives the Phillies a right-handed hitting pinch-hitter, with enough speed to be a viable pinch-runner, and enough defensive ability to get some starts in the outfield/be used as a late-inning defensive replacement. Eric Bruntlett should spend less time on the field, as a result.
Mayberry struggled in the reserve outfielder/pinch-hitter role, and will be able to play every day in AAA.
RHP Steven Register was optioned to Lehigh Valley. LHP Cliff Lee was added to the Phillies' roster. Lee will make his first start as a Phillie on Friday, in San Francisco. Register was the weakest member of the bullpen, and had an option available, so this was an easy decision.
What moves are upcoming?
At this point, we can only make educated guesses. Such as:
August 3: LHP J.C. Romero is activated from the 15-day DL. RHP Tyler Walker is designated for assignment.
Walker is the weakest reliever remaining, and already made it through waivers, when he was DFA'd two weeks ago. He'll likely make it through again, and return to Lehigh Valley.
August 6: RHP Clay Condrey is activated from the 15-day DL. RHP Kyle Kendrick is optioned to Lehigh Valley.
The IronPigs will be glad to get Kendrick back in their patchwork rotation, which currently includes reliever Jake Woods and (should be AA reliever) Tyson Brummett.
August 6?: RHP Chad Durbin is activated from the 15-day DL, and designated for assignment.
Durbin is eligible to return from the DL on August 6th, but might be kept there awhile longer, so the Phillies can postpone this decision. Durbin has struggled this season, with a 5.19 FIP. Durbin's unwieldy FIP, and his $1.635 million contract, may help him get through waivers, and join Lehigh Valley. (With rosters expanding on Sept. 1, teams may be unlikely to claim Durbin, when a cheaper (and more effective?) alternative could be available in the minors.)
August 10?: RHP Pedro Martinez is promoted from Lehigh Valley. Rodrigo Lopez is designated for assignment. J.A. Happ joins the bullpen.
The Phillies might trade Lopez, or Happ, before this point. An injury (Shane Victorino?) may open a roster spot. Jamie Moyer could retire/turn into a coach, but those options seem rather unlikely. But, as it stands right now, Lopez will, probably, get the boot, when Martinez is ready. Lopez is only making 650K, and seems to be a good bet to be picked up by another club.
How does Eric Bruntlett survive all these moves? The Phillies need a backup middle infielder. No one else on their current roster is a viable option for 2B, or SS.
Are there any open spots on the 40-Man Roster, to help facilitate roster moves?
Including Lee and Francisco, the 40-Man roster is currently full. The 40-Man includes Antonio Bastardo on the 15-day DL; he could be moved to the 60-day DL, to open a spot. Jack Taschner and Tyler Walker, AAA-quality relievers, have spots on the 40-Man. Injured Reading (AA) RHP Joe Bisenius has been on the DL since June 2, and Clearwater (A) catcher Joel Naughton is a surprising member of the 40-Man. If the Phillies want to deal J.A. Happ and/or Rodrigo Lopez for some AAA prospects, to replenish the IronPigs, finding them spots on the 40-Man shouldn't be a problem.
It's going to be a rather intriguing month of August for the Phillies. Can they hold their lead in the NL East? Can they survive without Steven Register? Stay tuned...
Why not go to a six-man rotation?
Would you rather aces Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee combine for 40% of the starts, or 33% of the starts? Would you like the sixth-best starter making 0% of the starts, or 16% of the starts? The starters are accustomed to pitching on every fifth day, so switching to the sixth day, at the point in the season, would be disruptive to their routines. Moving one of the six starters to the 'pen would also make the jettisoning of one of the team's weakest links (Tyler Walker?) possible.
Who will be The Chosen Ones?
Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee, and Joe Blanton are the top three. Rodrigo Lopez will, likely, be moved to the bullpen, after making his Thursday start. Pedro Martinez may be kept in AAA for another start, or two, after Friday, as much to get him more innings, as to delay the necessity of the next decision.
Does J.A. Happ, or Jamie Moyer, stay in the rotation, when Martinez is ready to return to MLB? Happ has been the Phillies' best (not including the recently-acquired Lee), and most consistent, starter this season. He also has a .254 BABIP, 83.5 LOB%, and 4.19 FIP, which all point to rough seas ahead for the young southpaw. (I'm still hoping Happ will be dealt before Friday's trade deadline, as Happ's trade value might be at a career high.) Happ started the season in the bullpen, might benefit from a reduced innings workload (166 IP in 2008, 106 IP in 2009) for the rest of the regular season, and his inevitable regression may be less painful in that role.
Jamie Moyer has had a mediocre season, though he has had better results over the past month. He has 256 career wins, no bullpen experience, and $6.5 million owed him in 2010. It doesn't seem likely that he'll be demoted to the bullpen.
Happ will, probably, be the odd man out in the regular season rotation, but Moyer will, likely, be the odd man out on the postseason roster.
(Martinez could also be used in the bullpen, but it seems likely that he will get at least a few starts, before that type of move is made. Martinez and Happ seem to be the frontrunners for the fourth, and last, spot in the postseason rotation.)
The Phillies made two roster moves on Thursday, with many more projected over the next week.
OF John Mayberry was optioned to Lehigh Valley (AAA). OF Ben Francisco was added to the Phillies' roster. Francisco gives the Phillies a right-handed hitting pinch-hitter, with enough speed to be a viable pinch-runner, and enough defensive ability to get some starts in the outfield/be used as a late-inning defensive replacement. Eric Bruntlett should spend less time on the field, as a result.
Mayberry struggled in the reserve outfielder/pinch-hitter role, and will be able to play every day in AAA.
RHP Steven Register was optioned to Lehigh Valley. LHP Cliff Lee was added to the Phillies' roster. Lee will make his first start as a Phillie on Friday, in San Francisco. Register was the weakest member of the bullpen, and had an option available, so this was an easy decision.
What moves are upcoming?
At this point, we can only make educated guesses. Such as:
August 3: LHP J.C. Romero is activated from the 15-day DL. RHP Tyler Walker is designated for assignment.
Walker is the weakest reliever remaining, and already made it through waivers, when he was DFA'd two weeks ago. He'll likely make it through again, and return to Lehigh Valley.
August 6: RHP Clay Condrey is activated from the 15-day DL. RHP Kyle Kendrick is optioned to Lehigh Valley.
The IronPigs will be glad to get Kendrick back in their patchwork rotation, which currently includes reliever Jake Woods and (should be AA reliever) Tyson Brummett.
August 6?: RHP Chad Durbin is activated from the 15-day DL, and designated for assignment.
Durbin is eligible to return from the DL on August 6th, but might be kept there awhile longer, so the Phillies can postpone this decision. Durbin has struggled this season, with a 5.19 FIP. Durbin's unwieldy FIP, and his $1.635 million contract, may help him get through waivers, and join Lehigh Valley. (With rosters expanding on Sept. 1, teams may be unlikely to claim Durbin, when a cheaper (and more effective?) alternative could be available in the minors.)
August 10?: RHP Pedro Martinez is promoted from Lehigh Valley. Rodrigo Lopez is designated for assignment. J.A. Happ joins the bullpen.
The Phillies might trade Lopez, or Happ, before this point. An injury (Shane Victorino?) may open a roster spot. Jamie Moyer could retire/turn into a coach, but those options seem rather unlikely. But, as it stands right now, Lopez will, probably, get the boot, when Martinez is ready. Lopez is only making 650K, and seems to be a good bet to be picked up by another club.
How does Eric Bruntlett survive all these moves? The Phillies need a backup middle infielder. No one else on their current roster is a viable option for 2B, or SS.
Are there any open spots on the 40-Man Roster, to help facilitate roster moves?
Including Lee and Francisco, the 40-Man roster is currently full. The 40-Man includes Antonio Bastardo on the 15-day DL; he could be moved to the 60-day DL, to open a spot. Jack Taschner and Tyler Walker, AAA-quality relievers, have spots on the 40-Man. Injured Reading (AA) RHP Joe Bisenius has been on the DL since June 2, and Clearwater (A) catcher Joel Naughton is a surprising member of the 40-Man. If the Phillies want to deal J.A. Happ and/or Rodrigo Lopez for some AAA prospects, to replenish the IronPigs, finding them spots on the 40-Man shouldn't be a problem.
It's going to be a rather intriguing month of August for the Phillies. Can they hold their lead in the NL East? Can they survive without Steven Register? Stay tuned...
Phillies Offense Absent, in Loss to Arizona
J.A. Happ spent part of Wednesday worrying about, potentially, being traded to an organization that will not win the 2009 World Series. After the Phillies acquired starter Cliff Lee, for four minor league prospects, Happ was likely concerned for his spot in the rotation. But Happ didn't let the things he couldn't control affect his performance. He took what he could control, namely, the Arizona bats not wielded by Justin Upton, and made a strong argument for his continued inclusion the the Phillies' fave five. Unfortunately, despite Happ's excellence (six innings, three hits, two runs, two walks/five strikeouts), the Phillies' offense, which had been able to solve Cy Young candidate Dan Haren on Tuesday, was unable to figure out AAA candidate Yusmeiro Petit, in a 4-0 loss.
Happ was a solitary success, in a night of Phillies failures. There were so many goats in Wednesday's defeat, that only bullet points can contain them:
Happ was a solitary success, in a night of Phillies failures. There were so many goats in Wednesday's defeat, that only bullet points can contain them:
- The Phillies' offense combined for seven hits (five singles, two doubles), twelve strikeouts, nine LOB, and an 0 for 11 w/RISP.
- Shane Victorino allowed a bloody nose, which was multiple innings in duration, and a painful knee contusion, to knock him out of the contest in only the eighth inning.
- John Mayberry did not replace Victorino, as a PH, and in the field, with Jayson Werth moving from, RF to CF. Mayberry's days are numbered (the number is probably zero, at this point) but wasn't he a better option than Eric Bruntlett? (Wasn't Chan Ho Park a better PH-ing option than Bruntlett?) Mayberry only has a .554 OPS against RHP, but Bruntlett has a .211 OPS against RHP. Shouldn't Mayberry have been used to face Arizona northpaw Jon Rauch? Additionally, Eric Bruntlett is Eric Bruntlett!
- Eric Bruntlett played, and was allowed to bat. These are not good things.
- Jayson Werth struck out on a pitch that was about six inches underground, with two runners on, and no outs, in the seventh inning of a 2-0 game. The Phillies failed to score in the inning, despite having runners on second and third, with no outs.
- Newly-acquired OF Ben Francisco did not arrive in time to be activated for Wednesday night's game. Ben, you're on the WFCs now. No excuses.
- Scott Eyre relieved to start the seventh, and surrended a home run to the first batter he faced.
- Tyler Walker relieved to start the eighth, and was fortunate to only allow one run. The run was charged to Walker's ERA, increasing it to 3.46, which still greatly overstates his level of effectiveness.
- Steven Register did not pitch, because he is not even as good at baseball as Tyler Walker.
Tough loss for the Phils, but they still took two of three games in Arizona, which is not a bad result. The Phillies will have future opportunities to crush the Diamondbacks, beneath the weight of their imperious cleats. When the time comes, the impudence of Yusmeiro Petit will be remembered, and handled accordingly.
Tuesday, July 28, 2009
Halladay to Phils: Just a Matter of Time...
For the better part of the twenty-first century, I've fantasized of a Phillies rotation fronted by Roy Halladay. Now, with only days remaining before the trade deadline, Halladay in a Phillies uniform is about to become a reality. No questions asked. It's only a matter of determining which Phillies' prospects will comprise the bounty headed to Toronto. Well, that, and picking a uniform number for the new Phillies' ace. (I'm thinking #23. I'm sure Gabor won't mind giving it up.)
The next few days are a time to sit back, and observe the proceedings with detached amusement, with the final result all but assured. The Blue Jays need to cut payroll, immediately. The Blue Jays need to replace Halladay with cost-controlled prospects, which the Phillies have in abundance. Halladay will only approve a trade to a few teams, at most. Perhaps, he will only approve a trade to the Phillies, a strong playoff contender with a Spring Training home conveniently located in Clearwater, Florida. The Blue Jays do not want to trade Halladay within their division, where they'll have to face him five times a season (at least), and where he can help keep them out of the playoffs. These truths are evident. These truths are the reason Roy Halladay will be a Phillie, when the dust generated by the trading deadline clears. All of the negotiations through the media, the arbitrary pre-trade deadline deadlines, the ineffectual efforts to gain leverage, the repeated posturing, the collecting of prospect packages from teams not actually in the running, the low probabilities periodically assigned to the possibility of a Halladay trade, are all almost irrelevant. Halladay will be a Phillie.
As for the prospects the Phillies will eventually surrender to Toronto, in exchange for two postseason runs headed by baseball's best pitcher, who knows what will become of them? J.A. Happ, the Phillies' best starter this season, could easily regress into a back-of-the-rotation arm. Top prospect Kyle Drabek is coming off Tommy John surgery. His usage this season seems to be with confidence (and trade value) maximation in mind. He started out in A ball, where he was well ahead of the competition. A promotion to AA followed, where he has only started on the road once, against the victory-challenged Altoona Curve, and their sub-.400 winning percentage. Drabek may not even be a Happ. Outfield prospects Michael Taylor and Dominic Brown could be All-Stars, or they could be Marlon Byrds or Greg Golsons. Either way, the Phillies could have two more WFCs, before either reaches the Major Leagues. Jason Donald? A Bruntlett, without the Economics degree. Lou Marson? A singles-hitting, backup catcher.
So, don't get overly concerned about the Halladay Deal. The Phillies are going to surrender as few prospects as possible, in exchange for one of MLB's few "givens." Relax, enjoy the ride, and make some room on your bobblehead shelf for a Phillies bobble with the name "Halladay" on the back, and for two more World Championship trophy paperweights.
The next few days are a time to sit back, and observe the proceedings with detached amusement, with the final result all but assured. The Blue Jays need to cut payroll, immediately. The Blue Jays need to replace Halladay with cost-controlled prospects, which the Phillies have in abundance. Halladay will only approve a trade to a few teams, at most. Perhaps, he will only approve a trade to the Phillies, a strong playoff contender with a Spring Training home conveniently located in Clearwater, Florida. The Blue Jays do not want to trade Halladay within their division, where they'll have to face him five times a season (at least), and where he can help keep them out of the playoffs. These truths are evident. These truths are the reason Roy Halladay will be a Phillie, when the dust generated by the trading deadline clears. All of the negotiations through the media, the arbitrary pre-trade deadline deadlines, the ineffectual efforts to gain leverage, the repeated posturing, the collecting of prospect packages from teams not actually in the running, the low probabilities periodically assigned to the possibility of a Halladay trade, are all almost irrelevant. Halladay will be a Phillie.
As for the prospects the Phillies will eventually surrender to Toronto, in exchange for two postseason runs headed by baseball's best pitcher, who knows what will become of them? J.A. Happ, the Phillies' best starter this season, could easily regress into a back-of-the-rotation arm. Top prospect Kyle Drabek is coming off Tommy John surgery. His usage this season seems to be with confidence (and trade value) maximation in mind. He started out in A ball, where he was well ahead of the competition. A promotion to AA followed, where he has only started on the road once, against the victory-challenged Altoona Curve, and their sub-.400 winning percentage. Drabek may not even be a Happ. Outfield prospects Michael Taylor and Dominic Brown could be All-Stars, or they could be Marlon Byrds or Greg Golsons. Either way, the Phillies could have two more WFCs, before either reaches the Major Leagues. Jason Donald? A Bruntlett, without the Economics degree. Lou Marson? A singles-hitting, backup catcher.
So, don't get overly concerned about the Halladay Deal. The Phillies are going to surrender as few prospects as possible, in exchange for one of MLB's few "givens." Relax, enjoy the ride, and make some room on your bobblehead shelf for a Phillies bobble with the name "Halladay" on the back, and for two more World Championship trophy paperweights.
Saturday, July 25, 2009
Holliday, BABIP, Staches, and J-Bros Combine to Defeat Happ and Phils, 8-1
It took an unfortunate, and unlikely, confluence of events to serve Phillies' starter J.A. Happ his first loss. Matt Holliday in the Cardinals' lineup. The Jonas Brothers in dangerously close proximity to Citizens Bank Park. St.Louis' porn stache-heavy lineup. But, as easy as it is to blame the aforementioned horrors for Happ's defeat, it was one treacherous, malevolent entity, above all others, that caused the rookie southpaw's downfall. Happ, for perhaps the first time as a major leaguer, felt the cold, cruel effects of BABIP.
Through five innings, it was a typical Happ outing. The rookie had allowed only a single run, as it seemed every hard-hit ball he conceded found the leather of a teammate's, often acrobatic, glove. Happ trailed 1-0, as play entered the sixth inning, but a one-run deficit is nothing for the vaunted Phillies' offense. The Phils' bats would regress (progress?) to their vociferous mean, and the runs would flow, as does the mighty Schuylkill.
There was regression to the mean for the Phillies, but not the good, winning-baseball-games, type. Often, we observe BABIP as an incremental change in a pitcher's statline, over a number of games. On Friday night, BABIP opted to ravage Happ's once-pristine numbers in a savage sixth inning. Six hits, and four runs later, the Cardinals had blooped and dunked their way to a victory. Happ's ERA increased to 2.97 (from 2.68), and the lefty was fortunate that the ten hits charged to his record only resulted in five runs.
Tyler Walker relieved to start the seventh. In the absence of inherited runners who could be permitted to score, the sweat-drenched right-hander's ineffectiveness lead to the sullying of his own, personal ERA. Walker surrendered three hits and two walks in his inning of work, but somehow managed to allow only two runs. Andrew Carpenter made his return to MLB in the eighth, and gave up a flukish solo homer to Boston-reject Julio Lugo. Trailing by a score of 8-1 in the top of the ninth, with a Win Expectancy of a lofty .1%, Phils' Manager Charlie Manuel summoned setup man Ryan Madson. It was an inexplicable move to end an inexplicable game, as the Phillies' offense (10 LOB, 0 for 13 w/RISP) was never quite able to match the Cardinals' level of BABIP proficiency. With the Jonas Brothers in Pittsburgh, and Rodrigo Lopez on the mound on Saturday, the Phillies should have a better chance in the second game of the three-game series. Unless the Cardinals grow some more porn staches prior to the 4:05pm start time.
Through five innings, it was a typical Happ outing. The rookie had allowed only a single run, as it seemed every hard-hit ball he conceded found the leather of a teammate's, often acrobatic, glove. Happ trailed 1-0, as play entered the sixth inning, but a one-run deficit is nothing for the vaunted Phillies' offense. The Phils' bats would regress (progress?) to their vociferous mean, and the runs would flow, as does the mighty Schuylkill.
There was regression to the mean for the Phillies, but not the good, winning-baseball-games, type. Often, we observe BABIP as an incremental change in a pitcher's statline, over a number of games. On Friday night, BABIP opted to ravage Happ's once-pristine numbers in a savage sixth inning. Six hits, and four runs later, the Cardinals had blooped and dunked their way to a victory. Happ's ERA increased to 2.97 (from 2.68), and the lefty was fortunate that the ten hits charged to his record only resulted in five runs.
Tyler Walker relieved to start the seventh. In the absence of inherited runners who could be permitted to score, the sweat-drenched right-hander's ineffectiveness lead to the sullying of his own, personal ERA. Walker surrendered three hits and two walks in his inning of work, but somehow managed to allow only two runs. Andrew Carpenter made his return to MLB in the eighth, and gave up a flukish solo homer to Boston-reject Julio Lugo. Trailing by a score of 8-1 in the top of the ninth, with a Win Expectancy of a lofty .1%, Phils' Manager Charlie Manuel summoned setup man Ryan Madson. It was an inexplicable move to end an inexplicable game, as the Phillies' offense (10 LOB, 0 for 13 w/RISP) was never quite able to match the Cardinals' level of BABIP proficiency. With the Jonas Brothers in Pittsburgh, and Rodrigo Lopez on the mound on Saturday, the Phillies should have a better chance in the second game of the three-game series. Unless the Cardinals grow some more porn staches prior to the 4:05pm start time.
Friday, July 24, 2009
Bunts and Balks (7/24)
According to Andy Martino of the Philadelphia Inquirer, "baseball sources" are indicating that the Blue Jays want J.A. Happ, Kyle Drabek, and Dominic Brown, in exchange for Roy Halladay.
This contradicts with the "hockey sources", who indicated that the Blue Jays wanted Claude Giroux, Mike Richards, and Marc-Andre Bourdon.
Happ is expendable, but Drabek AND Brown? That's a pretty hefty price. But the Phils would be getting a year, and a few months, of one of the best pitchers in MLB. If the Phils would control Halladay for a few seasons, giving up Drabek and Brown would be a lot easier.
Hopefully, the Jays' price will come down a bit.
The Lehigh Valley IronPigs (AAA) lost to the Gwinnett Braves on Friday, 7-5. The FeHogs fell behind 3-0, but pulled to within 3-2, before start Carlos Carrasco surrendered a three-run homer with two outs in the sixth. Carrasco probably didn't help his dwindling trade value, by allowing six runs, in six innings (four hits, four walks/five strikeouts, one home run allowed). Michael Taylor went 1 for 3, with a walk and a stolen base, in the losing effort.
The Reading Phillies (AA) crushed the Bowie Baysox, 7-1. Starter Mike Stutes had another strong performance, allowing only one run, over seven and one-third innings (six hits, two walks/eight strikeouts, one home runs allowed). In July, Stutes has a 1.80 ERA, in five starts (thirty innings). In his last ten starts, Stutes has a 2.81 ERA, in fifty-seven and two-thirds innings. (Stutes hasn't allowed more than three earned runs in any of those ten starts.) Perhaps Stutes should be as highly regarded as rotation-mates Joe Savery and Vance Worley?
Neil Sellers was a single short of a cycle, as his 3 for 5 night raised his average to .325. Kevin Mahar increased his average to .323, with a 3 for 5 effort of his own.
The Clearwater Threshers (A) shut out the Charlotte Stone Crabs, 2-0.
Darren Byrd (five innings, four hits, one walk/five whiffs), Carlos Monasterios (two innings, one hit), Scott Mathieson (one inning, one hit, one walk/three strikeouts), and Michael Schwimer (one inning, one strikeout) combined for the shutout. Steve Susdorf was 0 for 3, dropping his average to .394. Dominic Brown was 1 for 3, and his average fell to .300. Brown reached base twice, and was picked off once, and caught stealing second the other time.
This contradicts with the "hockey sources", who indicated that the Blue Jays wanted Claude Giroux, Mike Richards, and Marc-Andre Bourdon.
Happ is expendable, but Drabek AND Brown? That's a pretty hefty price. But the Phils would be getting a year, and a few months, of one of the best pitchers in MLB. If the Phils would control Halladay for a few seasons, giving up Drabek and Brown would be a lot easier.
Hopefully, the Jays' price will come down a bit.
The Lehigh Valley IronPigs (AAA) lost to the Gwinnett Braves on Friday, 7-5. The FeHogs fell behind 3-0, but pulled to within 3-2, before start Carlos Carrasco surrendered a three-run homer with two outs in the sixth. Carrasco probably didn't help his dwindling trade value, by allowing six runs, in six innings (four hits, four walks/five strikeouts, one home run allowed). Michael Taylor went 1 for 3, with a walk and a stolen base, in the losing effort.
The Reading Phillies (AA) crushed the Bowie Baysox, 7-1. Starter Mike Stutes had another strong performance, allowing only one run, over seven and one-third innings (six hits, two walks/eight strikeouts, one home runs allowed). In July, Stutes has a 1.80 ERA, in five starts (thirty innings). In his last ten starts, Stutes has a 2.81 ERA, in fifty-seven and two-thirds innings. (Stutes hasn't allowed more than three earned runs in any of those ten starts.) Perhaps Stutes should be as highly regarded as rotation-mates Joe Savery and Vance Worley?
Neil Sellers was a single short of a cycle, as his 3 for 5 night raised his average to .325. Kevin Mahar increased his average to .323, with a 3 for 5 effort of his own.
The Clearwater Threshers (A) shut out the Charlotte Stone Crabs, 2-0.
Darren Byrd (five innings, four hits, one walk/five whiffs), Carlos Monasterios (two innings, one hit), Scott Mathieson (one inning, one hit, one walk/three strikeouts), and Michael Schwimer (one inning, one strikeout) combined for the shutout. Steve Susdorf was 0 for 3, dropping his average to .394. Dominic Brown was 1 for 3, and his average fell to .300. Brown reached base twice, and was picked off once, and caught stealing second the other time.
Cardinals' Series Preview
(On some blogs, an upcoming weekend series will be previewed, with potential matchups examined. Here, we go ahead and tell you what is going to happen, so that you can plan your weekend accordingly. The upcoming results are to be USED FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY, and contain spoilers.)
FRI: Phillies 3, Cardinals 1
Eventually, MLB is going to catch up with Phillies' starter J.A. Happ. His BABIP and LOB % will likely regress to the norm, and Happ will likely regress to fourth-starter numbers. But the inevitable downward spiral didn't begin on Friday, as Happ held St. Louis scoreless, in his eight-inning stint. In a brisk two-hour and twenty-two minute game, which left plenty of time to catch the set by The Jonas Brothers across the street, Happ scattered five hits. Home runs by Chase Utley and Raul Ibanez were enough to secure the victory.
SAT: Phillies 5, Cardinals 2
Not much was expected of veteran starter Rodrigo Lopez by the Phillies. A few six-inning, three-run outings, providing a satisfactory bridge to Pedro Martinez' ascension to the rotation, was all that the Phillies desired. However, Lopez has continued to be more-than-satisfactory, twirling his fourth consecutive strong start, in the Phillies' 5-1 victory. Shane Victorino paced the offense, with a three-hit performance, including a two-run, first-inning homer.
SUN: Phillies 6, Cardinals 5 (10)
With Paul Bako and Eric Bruntlett both in the starting lineup, and shaky starter Jamie Moyer on the mound, the signs for a Phillies' sweep seemed as ominous as the cloudy skies over CBP. The game started as expected, with an ineffective Moyer permitting five runs through five innings, and the Killer B's each contributing a pair of strikeouts. When the rains delayed proceedings in the bottom of the fifth, many teams would have accepted the loss, and cleared the bench for the remainder of the game. But not the WFCs.
Recently-recalled AAA starter-turned-MLB-reliever Andrew Carpenter took the ball, when play resumed after a fifty-eight minute rain delay. He refused to surrender the mound, pitching a startingly-impressive five scoreless innings. Carpenter's first major league victory came in an ineffective, rain-shortened outing against the Nationals. His second major league win was something of which Carpenter could be a little more proud.
The Phillies tied things up in the seventh, with a five-run rally, keyed by four two-out hits. A walk-off single in the tenth, by emergency catcher Jayson Werth, completed the Phils' sweep. Of course, the heroics by Carpenter and Werth, as well as the Moyer-induced ugliness, were all-but-forgotten, when the Phillies announced their newest trade acquisition after the win.
FRI: Phillies 3, Cardinals 1
Eventually, MLB is going to catch up with Phillies' starter J.A. Happ. His BABIP and LOB % will likely regress to the norm, and Happ will likely regress to fourth-starter numbers. But the inevitable downward spiral didn't begin on Friday, as Happ held St. Louis scoreless, in his eight-inning stint. In a brisk two-hour and twenty-two minute game, which left plenty of time to catch the set by The Jonas Brothers across the street, Happ scattered five hits. Home runs by Chase Utley and Raul Ibanez were enough to secure the victory.
SAT: Phillies 5, Cardinals 2
Not much was expected of veteran starter Rodrigo Lopez by the Phillies. A few six-inning, three-run outings, providing a satisfactory bridge to Pedro Martinez' ascension to the rotation, was all that the Phillies desired. However, Lopez has continued to be more-than-satisfactory, twirling his fourth consecutive strong start, in the Phillies' 5-1 victory. Shane Victorino paced the offense, with a three-hit performance, including a two-run, first-inning homer.
SUN: Phillies 6, Cardinals 5 (10)
With Paul Bako and Eric Bruntlett both in the starting lineup, and shaky starter Jamie Moyer on the mound, the signs for a Phillies' sweep seemed as ominous as the cloudy skies over CBP. The game started as expected, with an ineffective Moyer permitting five runs through five innings, and the Killer B's each contributing a pair of strikeouts. When the rains delayed proceedings in the bottom of the fifth, many teams would have accepted the loss, and cleared the bench for the remainder of the game. But not the WFCs.
Recently-recalled AAA starter-turned-MLB-reliever Andrew Carpenter took the ball, when play resumed after a fifty-eight minute rain delay. He refused to surrender the mound, pitching a startingly-impressive five scoreless innings. Carpenter's first major league victory came in an ineffective, rain-shortened outing against the Nationals. His second major league win was something of which Carpenter could be a little more proud.
The Phillies tied things up in the seventh, with a five-run rally, keyed by four two-out hits. A walk-off single in the tenth, by emergency catcher Jayson Werth, completed the Phils' sweep. Of course, the heroics by Carpenter and Werth, as well as the Moyer-induced ugliness, were all-but-forgotten, when the Phillies announced their newest trade acquisition after the win.
Sunday, July 19, 2009
Phils Sweep Marlins: A Crazy, Random Happenstance?
J.A. Happ improved his season record to 7-0, in Sunday's 5-0 win over the Marlins. Another seven scoreless frames were added to Happ's increasingly impressive stat-line. His ERA has dropped to 2.68. In his last six starts, he has pitched 43 innings, allowing only 8 runs (1.67 ERA). Happ is the leading NL Rookie of the Year candidate, at least in the Pitchers/Non-Panda Division. At what point do we decide that Happ is evolving into Tom Glavine, and that we are not just witnessing another Ruffin-esque mirage? Well, Happ getting his FIP under 4.00 would be a good start. But you can't argue with Happ's results this season, or the fact that the Phillies are not a first-place team without them.
Happ did have some help on Sunday, as the Marlins left twelve men on base, RISP'ing a perfectly imperfect 0 for 12. Happ short-circuited a gaggle of Marlins' rallies, often with the help of the fielders behind him. (With the peculiar exception of typically slick-fielding 3B Pedro Feliz, whose two errors improved the Marlins' chances of scoring, and artificially inflated Happ's pitch count). The Pete Happy-extended innings pushed Happ's pitch count to 107, through seven innings, leading to a premature exit for the rookie southpaw. Phillies' Manager Charlie Manuel was able to involve four relievers in the final six Marlins outs, as Ryan Madson, J.C. Romero, Scott Eyre, and Brad Lidge combined to finish the shutout.
The Phillies' bats did most of their damage in a three-run second inning, as some poor base-running and situational hitting adversely affected their overall offensive output. Jimmy Rollins went 3 for 5, finishing the contest a homer short of a cycle. (Rollins has a .377 July average, with a 1.062 OPS this month. He has improved his average from .205, to .236, in his last fifteen games.) Raul Ibanez had a pair of RBI. The Phillies' six-through-eight hitters combined to go 0 for 12, stranding a combined eleven runners. Happ's performance on the mound, as well as his key two-out, rally-inducing single in the second inning, were sufficient to help increase the Phillies' winning streak to eight games.
Besides Pedro Feliz' aberrantly hideous performance, and catcher Carlos Ruiz non-aberrant hitless performance, there wasn't too much failure for the Phils on Sunday. Well, except for the fact that Eric Bruntlett was given a start, and permitted four plate appearances. How does this kind of thing happen? Giving Ryan Howard the day off was fine, particularly given his inability to hit southpaws. Not moving Raul Ibanez from left field to first base, and installing right-handed John Mayberry in left for the day? Also understandable, as Ibanez hasn't played a lot of 1B recently, and is coming off an injury. (Manuel indicated that he needs to "keep an eye on Ibanez' groin." Thanks for that, Charlie.) Despite their left-handedness, and their mediocrity afield, Greg Dobbs and Matt Stairs would have been better replacement options for Howard. (Given Bruntlett's offensive numbers, Dobbs or Stairs could bat right-handed and still be superior replacement options.) Was this a failure of roster construction, or of personnel management? Perhaps some of each of those two columns. However, the move did not cost the Phils in the win column, so the timing may have been just right...
The Phillies, now winners of eight consecutive, and twelve of thirteen, games, have charged to a 6.5 game division lead. They face the Cubs on Monday night, with Rodrigo Lopez facing Ted Lilly in a Phillies-unfriendly pitching matchup. The Phillies (and J.A. Happ) can't keep winning forever. Longtime Phillies fans have Ruffin and Combs-shaped scars that bear this truth out. Perhaps the Phils have knowledge of a truth greater than BABIP. A truth deeper than that of regression to the mean. Probably not, but let's continue to enjoy the ride. It's been an incredible couple of weeks for Phillies fans. Not as incredible as the last couple weeks of play in 2008, but strangely reminiscent.
Happ did have some help on Sunday, as the Marlins left twelve men on base, RISP'ing a perfectly imperfect 0 for 12. Happ short-circuited a gaggle of Marlins' rallies, often with the help of the fielders behind him. (With the peculiar exception of typically slick-fielding 3B Pedro Feliz, whose two errors improved the Marlins' chances of scoring, and artificially inflated Happ's pitch count). The Pete Happy-extended innings pushed Happ's pitch count to 107, through seven innings, leading to a premature exit for the rookie southpaw. Phillies' Manager Charlie Manuel was able to involve four relievers in the final six Marlins outs, as Ryan Madson, J.C. Romero, Scott Eyre, and Brad Lidge combined to finish the shutout.
The Phillies' bats did most of their damage in a three-run second inning, as some poor base-running and situational hitting adversely affected their overall offensive output. Jimmy Rollins went 3 for 5, finishing the contest a homer short of a cycle. (Rollins has a .377 July average, with a 1.062 OPS this month. He has improved his average from .205, to .236, in his last fifteen games.) Raul Ibanez had a pair of RBI. The Phillies' six-through-eight hitters combined to go 0 for 12, stranding a combined eleven runners. Happ's performance on the mound, as well as his key two-out, rally-inducing single in the second inning, were sufficient to help increase the Phillies' winning streak to eight games.
Besides Pedro Feliz' aberrantly hideous performance, and catcher Carlos Ruiz non-aberrant hitless performance, there wasn't too much failure for the Phils on Sunday. Well, except for the fact that Eric Bruntlett was given a start, and permitted four plate appearances. How does this kind of thing happen? Giving Ryan Howard the day off was fine, particularly given his inability to hit southpaws. Not moving Raul Ibanez from left field to first base, and installing right-handed John Mayberry in left for the day? Also understandable, as Ibanez hasn't played a lot of 1B recently, and is coming off an injury. (Manuel indicated that he needs to "keep an eye on Ibanez' groin." Thanks for that, Charlie.) Despite their left-handedness, and their mediocrity afield, Greg Dobbs and Matt Stairs would have been better replacement options for Howard. (Given Bruntlett's offensive numbers, Dobbs or Stairs could bat right-handed and still be superior replacement options.) Was this a failure of roster construction, or of personnel management? Perhaps some of each of those two columns. However, the move did not cost the Phils in the win column, so the timing may have been just right...
The Phillies, now winners of eight consecutive, and twelve of thirteen, games, have charged to a 6.5 game division lead. They face the Cubs on Monday night, with Rodrigo Lopez facing Ted Lilly in a Phillies-unfriendly pitching matchup. The Phillies (and J.A. Happ) can't keep winning forever. Longtime Phillies fans have Ruffin and Combs-shaped scars that bear this truth out. Perhaps the Phils have knowledge of a truth greater than BABIP. A truth deeper than that of regression to the mean. Probably not, but let's continue to enjoy the ride. It's been an incredible couple of weeks for Phillies fans. Not as incredible as the last couple weeks of play in 2008, but strangely reminiscent.
Not Innocuous
As a result of the postponement of Saturday night's game, the Phillies made some seemingly innocuous adjustments to their pitching probables for the week. The probables are, as follows:
Monday: Rodrigo Lopez
Tuesday: Joe Blanton (rained out on Saturday- threw only 24 pitches)
Wednesday: Jamie Moyer (five days rest)
Thursday: Cole Hamels (left Friday's game early, due to rain- threw 68 pitches- five days rest)
Friday: J.A. Happ (four days rest)
Saturday: Rodrigo Lopez (four days rest)
Sunday: Joe Blanton (four days rest)
There are a number of things we can deduce from these adjustments:
-Joe Blanton has been too effective, recently, for the Phillies to skip his start.
-The Phillies' upcoming, game-a-day, schedule was not conducive to skipping any starters (Moyer?) in the rotation.
-Despite Hamels' rain-shortened appearance, they did not want to bring the southpaw back early. They also chose to pitch Moyer on one extra day's rest, rather than starting Hamels on his regular day, and giving Moyer two extra days' rest. As a result, Hamels will not have to pitch in Wednesday's afternoon game, which is usually a good thing.
-The Phillies don't want Rodrigo Lopez to wait any longer to make his third Phillies start- they want to evaluate Lopez' MLB ability, before Pedro Martinez arrives on the scene to replace him.
-Slotting Lopez into the third slot in the rotation indicates that the Phils project Pedro Martinez as their third starter in the postseason. (Martinez will take Lopez' place in August.) Joe Blanton will be in the fourth spot during the playoffs. Jamie Moyer will watch the postseason from the stands, utilizing tickets graciously provided by the Phillies' organization.
-J.A. Happ continues pitching on the same day as Roy Halladay, who is, temporarily, still with Toronto. Happ will be included in The Halladay Deal, with each respective hurler being seamlessly inserted into their new club's rotation.
-Roy Halladay will be slotted as the #2 in the Phillies' rotation, as a result of #1 starter Cole Hamels' postseason pedigree.
-The Phillies have determined that Happ's strong results in 2009 are a mirage. The Phils have examined Happ's BABIP and LOB %, as well as various proprietary statistics that have not yet fallen into the public consciousness, in coming to this conclusion.
-As a result of the inclusion of J.A. Happ in The Halladay Deal, the Phillies will be able to keep northpaw prospect Kyle Drabek in their organization. Drabek's sub-zero FIP performance in 2014 will be in a Phillies' uniform. (The MLB Phillies, if that wasn't clear.)
Monday: Rodrigo Lopez
Tuesday: Joe Blanton (rained out on Saturday- threw only 24 pitches)
Wednesday: Jamie Moyer (five days rest)
Thursday: Cole Hamels (left Friday's game early, due to rain- threw 68 pitches- five days rest)
Friday: J.A. Happ (four days rest)
Saturday: Rodrigo Lopez (four days rest)
Sunday: Joe Blanton (four days rest)
There are a number of things we can deduce from these adjustments:
-Joe Blanton has been too effective, recently, for the Phillies to skip his start.
-The Phillies' upcoming, game-a-day, schedule was not conducive to skipping any starters (Moyer?) in the rotation.
-Despite Hamels' rain-shortened appearance, they did not want to bring the southpaw back early. They also chose to pitch Moyer on one extra day's rest, rather than starting Hamels on his regular day, and giving Moyer two extra days' rest. As a result, Hamels will not have to pitch in Wednesday's afternoon game, which is usually a good thing.
-The Phillies don't want Rodrigo Lopez to wait any longer to make his third Phillies start- they want to evaluate Lopez' MLB ability, before Pedro Martinez arrives on the scene to replace him.
-Slotting Lopez into the third slot in the rotation indicates that the Phils project Pedro Martinez as their third starter in the postseason. (Martinez will take Lopez' place in August.) Joe Blanton will be in the fourth spot during the playoffs. Jamie Moyer will watch the postseason from the stands, utilizing tickets graciously provided by the Phillies' organization.
-J.A. Happ continues pitching on the same day as Roy Halladay, who is, temporarily, still with Toronto. Happ will be included in The Halladay Deal, with each respective hurler being seamlessly inserted into their new club's rotation.
-Roy Halladay will be slotted as the #2 in the Phillies' rotation, as a result of #1 starter Cole Hamels' postseason pedigree.
-The Phillies have determined that Happ's strong results in 2009 are a mirage. The Phils have examined Happ's BABIP and LOB %, as well as various proprietary statistics that have not yet fallen into the public consciousness, in coming to this conclusion.
-As a result of the inclusion of J.A. Happ in The Halladay Deal, the Phillies will be able to keep northpaw prospect Kyle Drabek in their organization. Drabek's sub-zero FIP performance in 2014 will be in a Phillies' uniform. (The MLB Phillies, if that wasn't clear.)
Thursday, July 16, 2009
Season in Review/Preview- Pitchers Edition (Now with Arbitrary Grades!)
Welcome to the Season in Review/Preview- Pitchers Edition!
Starting Pitchers
Joe Blanton
Some numbers: 103.1 IP, 4.44 ERA, 2.76 K/BB, .310 BABIP, 79.4% LOB, 4.74 FIP
Some commentary: Blanton has improved substantially, after a horrific start. BABIP is starting to work in his favor. His first half was mediocre, at best, but he could have a much better second half.
Arbitrary Grade: C-
Cole Hamels
Some numbers: 98 IP, 4.87 ERA, 4.72 K/BB, .348 BABIP, 71.3% LOB, 3.90 FIP
Some commentary: Hamels wasn't mentally/physically ready at the beginning of the season, and got off to a bad start. He has only shown glimpses of his aceability, and has also been unlucky, at times. He might be feeling the effects of the 269 innings he pitched in 2008. He should improve, but not to the levels the Phillies expect from their top starter.
Arbitrary Grade: C+
Jamie Moyer
Some numbers: 94.2 IP, 5.99 ERA, 2.12 K/BB, .307 BABIP, 71.7% LOB, 5.84 FIP
Some commentary: Moyer has been terrible. Signing him for two years looks like a very poor decision by the Phillies. His results indicate that he should be removed from the rotation, but his contract situation, and his poor suitability for a relief role, have kept him in the rotation. He seems unlikely to remain in the rotation all season, and seems unlikely to be on the postseason roster.
Arbitrary Grade: D-
J. A. Happ
Some numbers: 87 IP, 2.90 ERA, 1.91 K/BB, .242 BABIP, 85.9% LOB, 4.51 FIP
Some commentary: Happ has been the Phillies' most effective starter. If Happ had started the season in the rotation, the Phillies' record would, likely, have been better. Happ threw 166 innings in 2008, so the Phillies should try to keep him under 190 innings for the 2009 season. (Starting the season in the bullpen helped, in that area.) Happ's peripheral stats (K/BB, FIP, BABIP, LOB%) indicate that he has been very fortunate, and a sizeable regression may be impending. But Happ is graded based on his results, which have been superb.
Arbitrary Grade: A-
Brett Myers (injured, likely out for season- may return as a reliever in Sept.)
Some numbers: 63.2 IP, 4.66 ERA, 2.30 K/BB, .268 BABIP, 86.1% LOB, 6.22 FIP
Some commentary: Myers was surrendering homers by the bushel, before his injury. As mediocre as his numbers were, his peripherals indicated that they were likely to get worse. Re-signing Myers as a free agent would not be advisable.
Arbitrary Grade: D+
Chan Ho Park
Some numbers: (25 appearances, 7 starts) 59.0 IP, 5.49 ERA, 1.92 K/BB, .336 BABIP, 65.5% LOB, 4.00 FIP
Some commentary: Signing Park for $2.5 million, and giving him a spot in the starting rotation, was ill-conceived. After a horrendous performance as a starter (7.29 ERA), Park has been satisfactory (3.16 ERA) as a reliever. He has had some poor luck, which appears to be starting to even out. If the Phillies' bats hadn't saved them from several losses in Park's starts, the Phils would not be in first place.
Arbitrary Grade: C- (overall), F (as a starter)
Antonio Bastardo (currently on DL)
Some numbers: (5 starts) 22.2 IP, 6.75 ERA, 2.38 K/BB, .329 BABIP, 59.2% LOB, 5.01 FIP
Some commentary: Bastardo may have been promoted before he was ready. He was overpowering at times, unlucky at times, and out of control at times.
Arbitrary Grade: C-
Rodrigo Lopez (currently on DL)
Some numbers: (2 starts) 11.1 IP, 3.18 ERA, 4.00 K/BB, .315 BABIP, 69.2% LOB, 2.18 FIP
Some commentary: A journeyman northpaw, Lopez looked good in his two starts. He might put up better numbers than Jamie Moyer, if given an extended chance in the rotation. He probably won't get that chance, now that Pedro Martinez has been signed, Lopez may be used out of the bullpen, where he might be a better option than Tyler Walker.
Arbitrary Grade: INC
Relievers
Ryan Madson
Some numbers: 44.2 IP, 3.02 ERA, 2.75 K/BB, .293 BABIP, 79.0% LOB, 3.40 FIP
Some commentary: Madson struggled when used in the closer role, but has excelled as a setup man.
Arbitrary Grade: B+
Chad Durbin
Some numbers: 44.1 IP, 4.47 ERA, 1.54 K/BB, .268 BABIP, 73.5% LOB, 5.25 FIP
Some commentary: Durbin has been lucky to put up mediocre numbers. He needs to be the fifth option in the bullpen, but was forced into too many higher leverage situations.
Arbitrary Grade: D+
Clay Condrey (currently on DL)
Some numbers: 34 IP, 3.71 ERA, 1.57 K/BB, .268 BABIP, 76.1% LOB, 4.54 FIP
Some commentary: Condrey has also been lucky, and may be bound for regression. He needs to be used in low leverage situations.
Arbitrary Grade: C-
Brad Lidge
Some numbers: 32 IP, 7.03 ERA, 1.95 K/BB, .375 BABIP, 67.6 % LOB, 5.88 FIP, 2.25 HR/9 (career: .86), 19.5% HR/FB (career: 10.9%)
Some commentary: Lidge has struggled with injury problems. Lidge has struggled with horribly bad luck, particularly with home run balls. His fortune seems bound to improve. But he is graded on his results, and there is only one possible grade for those results.
Arbitrary Grade: F
Jack Taschner (was optioned to AAA)
Some numbers: 27.2 IP, 5.20 ERA, .85 K/BB, .337 BABIP, 73.4% LOB, 5.63 FIP
Some commentary: If Taschner was signed at the major league minimum, it would have been a poor move. Taschner's salary was 835K, and he cost the Phillies a suitable backup catcher (Ronny Paulino, ot Jason Jaramillo) in trade. Taschner was so ineffective that Charlie Manuel barely used him. It was inexplicable that he consumed a roster spot for as long as he did. His ability to put baserunners on was evidenced by his 1.95 WHIP. He did a lot of damage to the ERAs of his bullpen mates.
Arbitrary Grade: F
Scott Eyre
Some numbers: (27 games) 16.2 IP, 2.16 ERA, 1.20 K/BB, .239 BABIP, 89.6% LOB, 5.17 FIP
Some commentary: Eyre has been extremely lucky, and regression seems inevitable. The Phillies need to be certain to keep Eyre in LOOGY situations.
Arbitrary Grade: B+
J.C. Romero (suspended for first 50 games of season)
Some numbers: (17 games) 14.1 IP, 3.14 ERA, .92 K/BB, .234 BABIP, 85.6% LOB, 6.27 FIP
Some commentary: Romero has been luckier, than good. Allowing so many baserunners may catch up to him, as it did in his time with Boston. The Phillies need him to split the 8th inning with Madson, and to pitch in mid-high leverage situations. His peripherals indicate those situations may prove dangerous.
Arbitrary Grade: B
Tyler Walker
Some numbers: (9 games) 11 IP, 1.64 ERA, 5.00 K/BB, .235 BABIP, 100% LOB, 4.79 FIP
Some commentary: Walker should have taken Taschner's roster spot early in the season. Walker has been rather lucky, and has regularly damaged the ERAs of his teammates. He should be the least-used member of the bullpen.
Arbitrary Grade: C
Sergio Escalona (currently in AAA)
Some numbers: (6 games) 6.1 IP, 2.84 ERA, 2.00 K/BB, .265 BABIP, 75% LOB, 3.22 FIP
Some commentary: Escalona is performed well in his brief MLB opportunities. He could be on the postseason roster. If he didn't have options remaining, he might be on the MLB roster, rather than Walker.
Arbitrary Grade: INC
The Phillies' pitchers have struggled with injuries and poor luck. As a whole, their results have been rather putrid. If they had performed at an average level, the Phillies would have a sizeable division lead. It is no secret that the Phillies need to upgrade their pitching staff, in order to be a viable World Series contender. (Though they may be able to ride their offense to win a weak division.)
Starting Pitchers
Joe Blanton
Some numbers: 103.1 IP, 4.44 ERA, 2.76 K/BB, .310 BABIP, 79.4% LOB, 4.74 FIP
Some commentary: Blanton has improved substantially, after a horrific start. BABIP is starting to work in his favor. His first half was mediocre, at best, but he could have a much better second half.
Arbitrary Grade: C-
Cole Hamels
Some numbers: 98 IP, 4.87 ERA, 4.72 K/BB, .348 BABIP, 71.3% LOB, 3.90 FIP
Some commentary: Hamels wasn't mentally/physically ready at the beginning of the season, and got off to a bad start. He has only shown glimpses of his aceability, and has also been unlucky, at times. He might be feeling the effects of the 269 innings he pitched in 2008. He should improve, but not to the levels the Phillies expect from their top starter.
Arbitrary Grade: C+
Jamie Moyer
Some numbers: 94.2 IP, 5.99 ERA, 2.12 K/BB, .307 BABIP, 71.7% LOB, 5.84 FIP
Some commentary: Moyer has been terrible. Signing him for two years looks like a very poor decision by the Phillies. His results indicate that he should be removed from the rotation, but his contract situation, and his poor suitability for a relief role, have kept him in the rotation. He seems unlikely to remain in the rotation all season, and seems unlikely to be on the postseason roster.
Arbitrary Grade: D-
J. A. Happ
Some numbers: 87 IP, 2.90 ERA, 1.91 K/BB, .242 BABIP, 85.9% LOB, 4.51 FIP
Some commentary: Happ has been the Phillies' most effective starter. If Happ had started the season in the rotation, the Phillies' record would, likely, have been better. Happ threw 166 innings in 2008, so the Phillies should try to keep him under 190 innings for the 2009 season. (Starting the season in the bullpen helped, in that area.) Happ's peripheral stats (K/BB, FIP, BABIP, LOB%) indicate that he has been very fortunate, and a sizeable regression may be impending. But Happ is graded based on his results, which have been superb.
Arbitrary Grade: A-
Brett Myers (injured, likely out for season- may return as a reliever in Sept.)
Some numbers: 63.2 IP, 4.66 ERA, 2.30 K/BB, .268 BABIP, 86.1% LOB, 6.22 FIP
Some commentary: Myers was surrendering homers by the bushel, before his injury. As mediocre as his numbers were, his peripherals indicated that they were likely to get worse. Re-signing Myers as a free agent would not be advisable.
Arbitrary Grade: D+
Chan Ho Park
Some numbers: (25 appearances, 7 starts) 59.0 IP, 5.49 ERA, 1.92 K/BB, .336 BABIP, 65.5% LOB, 4.00 FIP
Some commentary: Signing Park for $2.5 million, and giving him a spot in the starting rotation, was ill-conceived. After a horrendous performance as a starter (7.29 ERA), Park has been satisfactory (3.16 ERA) as a reliever. He has had some poor luck, which appears to be starting to even out. If the Phillies' bats hadn't saved them from several losses in Park's starts, the Phils would not be in first place.
Arbitrary Grade: C- (overall), F (as a starter)
Antonio Bastardo (currently on DL)
Some numbers: (5 starts) 22.2 IP, 6.75 ERA, 2.38 K/BB, .329 BABIP, 59.2% LOB, 5.01 FIP
Some commentary: Bastardo may have been promoted before he was ready. He was overpowering at times, unlucky at times, and out of control at times.
Arbitrary Grade: C-
Rodrigo Lopez (currently on DL)
Some numbers: (2 starts) 11.1 IP, 3.18 ERA, 4.00 K/BB, .315 BABIP, 69.2% LOB, 2.18 FIP
Some commentary: A journeyman northpaw, Lopez looked good in his two starts. He might put up better numbers than Jamie Moyer, if given an extended chance in the rotation. He probably won't get that chance, now that Pedro Martinez has been signed, Lopez may be used out of the bullpen, where he might be a better option than Tyler Walker.
Arbitrary Grade: INC
Relievers
Ryan Madson
Some numbers: 44.2 IP, 3.02 ERA, 2.75 K/BB, .293 BABIP, 79.0% LOB, 3.40 FIP
Some commentary: Madson struggled when used in the closer role, but has excelled as a setup man.
Arbitrary Grade: B+
Chad Durbin
Some numbers: 44.1 IP, 4.47 ERA, 1.54 K/BB, .268 BABIP, 73.5% LOB, 5.25 FIP
Some commentary: Durbin has been lucky to put up mediocre numbers. He needs to be the fifth option in the bullpen, but was forced into too many higher leverage situations.
Arbitrary Grade: D+
Clay Condrey (currently on DL)
Some numbers: 34 IP, 3.71 ERA, 1.57 K/BB, .268 BABIP, 76.1% LOB, 4.54 FIP
Some commentary: Condrey has also been lucky, and may be bound for regression. He needs to be used in low leverage situations.
Arbitrary Grade: C-
Brad Lidge
Some numbers: 32 IP, 7.03 ERA, 1.95 K/BB, .375 BABIP, 67.6 % LOB, 5.88 FIP, 2.25 HR/9 (career: .86), 19.5% HR/FB (career: 10.9%)
Some commentary: Lidge has struggled with injury problems. Lidge has struggled with horribly bad luck, particularly with home run balls. His fortune seems bound to improve. But he is graded on his results, and there is only one possible grade for those results.
Arbitrary Grade: F
Jack Taschner (was optioned to AAA)
Some numbers: 27.2 IP, 5.20 ERA, .85 K/BB, .337 BABIP, 73.4% LOB, 5.63 FIP
Some commentary: If Taschner was signed at the major league minimum, it would have been a poor move. Taschner's salary was 835K, and he cost the Phillies a suitable backup catcher (Ronny Paulino, ot Jason Jaramillo) in trade. Taschner was so ineffective that Charlie Manuel barely used him. It was inexplicable that he consumed a roster spot for as long as he did. His ability to put baserunners on was evidenced by his 1.95 WHIP. He did a lot of damage to the ERAs of his bullpen mates.
Arbitrary Grade: F
Scott Eyre
Some numbers: (27 games) 16.2 IP, 2.16 ERA, 1.20 K/BB, .239 BABIP, 89.6% LOB, 5.17 FIP
Some commentary: Eyre has been extremely lucky, and regression seems inevitable. The Phillies need to be certain to keep Eyre in LOOGY situations.
Arbitrary Grade: B+
J.C. Romero (suspended for first 50 games of season)
Some numbers: (17 games) 14.1 IP, 3.14 ERA, .92 K/BB, .234 BABIP, 85.6% LOB, 6.27 FIP
Some commentary: Romero has been luckier, than good. Allowing so many baserunners may catch up to him, as it did in his time with Boston. The Phillies need him to split the 8th inning with Madson, and to pitch in mid-high leverage situations. His peripherals indicate those situations may prove dangerous.
Arbitrary Grade: B
Tyler Walker
Some numbers: (9 games) 11 IP, 1.64 ERA, 5.00 K/BB, .235 BABIP, 100% LOB, 4.79 FIP
Some commentary: Walker should have taken Taschner's roster spot early in the season. Walker has been rather lucky, and has regularly damaged the ERAs of his teammates. He should be the least-used member of the bullpen.
Arbitrary Grade: C
Sergio Escalona (currently in AAA)
Some numbers: (6 games) 6.1 IP, 2.84 ERA, 2.00 K/BB, .265 BABIP, 75% LOB, 3.22 FIP
Some commentary: Escalona is performed well in his brief MLB opportunities. He could be on the postseason roster. If he didn't have options remaining, he might be on the MLB roster, rather than Walker.
Arbitrary Grade: INC
The Phillies' pitchers have struggled with injuries and poor luck. As a whole, their results have been rather putrid. If they had performed at an average level, the Phillies would have a sizeable division lead. It is no secret that the Phillies need to upgrade their pitching staff, in order to be a viable World Series contender. (Though they may be able to ride their offense to win a weak division.)
Monday, July 13, 2009
Pedro, Halladay, and All-Star Updates
Pedro Martinez is, reportedly, headed to Philadelphia, for a physical on Tuesday. It looks like this is getting very close.
The keys to this acquisition:
-the only costs associated with this deal are salary costs, no players will be lost as a result
-the salary costs are low enough that the Phillies will still be fiscally-able to make additional salary-increasing personnel moves (reports indicate that Martinez is concerned more about playing for a contender, than salary, and that he will only be paid between $1 and $2 million)
-the expectations for Martinez are: to be a back-of-the-rotation arm, an upgrade over Rodrigo Lopez, and a stopgap to buy additional minor league development time for prospects
-the Phillies need to treat Martinez as a sunk cost: if he doesn't perform on the field and/or has an adverse effect on the clubhouse, Martinez should be invited to hit the bricks, in a timely manner
As long as the Phillies don't keep giving starts to an ineffective Martinez, as they did to Chan Ho Park, this could be a very good move.
Martinez, likely, wouldn't pitch for the Phils before August, as he would need a few minor league starts to build up arm strength.
Roy Halladay estimates that there is a 50% chance that he is traded. Not so sure about the accuracy of that probability, but the Phillies would certainly be among the frontrunners for the ace's services. The Phils have the prospects to trade, the money to pay Halladay (at least for the remainder of his current contract, through 2010), are a playoff contender, and are not in the American League. If Halladay gets dealt this season, it wouldn't be surprising to see him go to Philly.
The possibility of including J.A. Happ in a prospective Halladay deal is a polarizing issue throughout the Phillies' blogosphere.
Happ has been outstanding in 2009, with a 6-0 record, and a 2.90 ERA. The Phillies would not be in 1st place right now, if it wasn't for his efforts. If Happ had started the season in the rotation, as many believed he should have, the Phillies' division lead would likely be larger than four games. Happ is young (26.75), left-handed, and cost-controlled for the immediate future.
Happ has a .242 BABIP, a 85.9% LOB%, and a 4.51 FIP in 2009. These numbers all point very strongly towards possible regression in the (very?) immediate future. He projects as a back-of-the-rotation starter, despite his front-of-the-rotation results in 2009.
Happ seems bound to regress, doesn't quite have the upside of some of the other Phillies' arms (Kyle Drabek, Carlos Carrasco, Jason Knapp), and might be at the height of his trade value right now. If the Phillies can get a Halladay, they should definitely consider trading Happ, especially if his inclusion in a deal allows them to hold on to one of their higher-upside arms.
Charlie Manuel has announced his starting lineup for the All-Star game. It includes 2B Chase Utley batting second, LF Raul Ibanez batting fifth, and CF Shane Victorino in the seventh spot.
Considering that the AL has a northpaw on the mound (Roy Halladay, future Phillie?), it's surprising that Manuel doesn't have left-handed batters Greg Dobbs and Paul Bako in the starting lineup.
I'll be rooting for an NL victory, so that the Phillies have four home games in the World Series (against Detroit). But I won't mind too much if the Phillies' representatives play sparingly, especially the recently-disabled Ibanez, as we don't need any of them sustaining injuries in an exhibition game.
Ryan Howard will be participating in the Home Run Derby.
In one of the infinite parallel universes, the Home Run Derby includes the Phillies' Russell Branyan (the starting DH for the NL) and Matt Stairs (one of the "Wild Card" participants).
But watching Ryan Howard hit bombs is always fun. (Though I'll have that broadcast on mute, in order to listen to the Clearwater Threshers-Daytona Cubs game.)
The keys to this acquisition:
-the only costs associated with this deal are salary costs, no players will be lost as a result
-the salary costs are low enough that the Phillies will still be fiscally-able to make additional salary-increasing personnel moves (reports indicate that Martinez is concerned more about playing for a contender, than salary, and that he will only be paid between $1 and $2 million)
-the expectations for Martinez are: to be a back-of-the-rotation arm, an upgrade over Rodrigo Lopez, and a stopgap to buy additional minor league development time for prospects
-the Phillies need to treat Martinez as a sunk cost: if he doesn't perform on the field and/or has an adverse effect on the clubhouse, Martinez should be invited to hit the bricks, in a timely manner
As long as the Phillies don't keep giving starts to an ineffective Martinez, as they did to Chan Ho Park, this could be a very good move.
Martinez, likely, wouldn't pitch for the Phils before August, as he would need a few minor league starts to build up arm strength.
Roy Halladay estimates that there is a 50% chance that he is traded. Not so sure about the accuracy of that probability, but the Phillies would certainly be among the frontrunners for the ace's services. The Phils have the prospects to trade, the money to pay Halladay (at least for the remainder of his current contract, through 2010), are a playoff contender, and are not in the American League. If Halladay gets dealt this season, it wouldn't be surprising to see him go to Philly.
The possibility of including J.A. Happ in a prospective Halladay deal is a polarizing issue throughout the Phillies' blogosphere.
Happ has been outstanding in 2009, with a 6-0 record, and a 2.90 ERA. The Phillies would not be in 1st place right now, if it wasn't for his efforts. If Happ had started the season in the rotation, as many believed he should have, the Phillies' division lead would likely be larger than four games. Happ is young (26.75), left-handed, and cost-controlled for the immediate future.
Happ has a .242 BABIP, a 85.9% LOB%, and a 4.51 FIP in 2009. These numbers all point very strongly towards possible regression in the (very?) immediate future. He projects as a back-of-the-rotation starter, despite his front-of-the-rotation results in 2009.
Happ seems bound to regress, doesn't quite have the upside of some of the other Phillies' arms (Kyle Drabek, Carlos Carrasco, Jason Knapp), and might be at the height of his trade value right now. If the Phillies can get a Halladay, they should definitely consider trading Happ, especially if his inclusion in a deal allows them to hold on to one of their higher-upside arms.
Charlie Manuel has announced his starting lineup for the All-Star game. It includes 2B Chase Utley batting second, LF Raul Ibanez batting fifth, and CF Shane Victorino in the seventh spot.
Considering that the AL has a northpaw on the mound (Roy Halladay, future Phillie?), it's surprising that Manuel doesn't have left-handed batters Greg Dobbs and Paul Bako in the starting lineup.
I'll be rooting for an NL victory, so that the Phillies have four home games in the World Series (against Detroit). But I won't mind too much if the Phillies' representatives play sparingly, especially the recently-disabled Ibanez, as we don't need any of them sustaining injuries in an exhibition game.
Ryan Howard will be participating in the Home Run Derby.
In one of the infinite parallel universes, the Home Run Derby includes the Phillies' Russell Branyan (the starting DH for the NL) and Matt Stairs (one of the "Wild Card" participants).
But watching Ryan Howard hit bombs is always fun. (Though I'll have that broadcast on mute, in order to listen to the Clearwater Threshers-Daytona Cubs game.)
Phillies Complete Sweep of Bucs
With two outs in the first inning, the Phillies had the bases loaded. They had already taken a 1-0 lead, in Sunday's game against the Pirates. With Pedro Feliz at the plate, the Phils had a chance to break the game open. A single would give starting pitcher J.A. Happ a 3-0 lead to work with, which could be enough, considering how well the undefeated rookie southpaw has pitched.
Pedro Feliz failed to get a single, however. After falling behind in the count, 0 and 2, Feliz drove a Virgil Vasquez slider over the wall in left. The grand slam gave the Phillies a quick 5-0 lead. The Phillies' bats went dormant after the first frame, generating only three scattered hits, none of which were converted into runs. The early five-run advantage was sufficient, as J.A. Happ (seven innings, one run), Ryan Madson (scoreless eighth), and J.C. Romero (solo HR allowed in ninth) held the lead. Happ, the early favorite to finish second in NL RoY voting, completes the first half with a 6-0 record, and a sterling 2.90 ERA.
The Phillies complete the first half of their season with a 48-38 record, and a four-game NL East lead over Florida. The Phillies' once-horrific home record has improved to 22-23, as the Phils closed with a nine-win, ten-game homestand. The Phillies are were they want to be, leading the division at the break, but there are many questions to be answered in the second half. Will Cole Hamels return to form? Will Roy Halladay and/or Pedro Martinez join Hamels in the rotation? Will Paul Bako really remain the backup catcher? Will Eric Bruntlett really remain on an MLB roster? Which minor league prospects will be dealt to fortify the parent club's roster? (Kyle Drabek? Carlos Carrasco? Jack Taschner? Michael Taylor? Crazy Hot Dog Vendor?) Stay tuned for a maelstrom of personnel moves, as the Phillies try to protect their division lead, and replenish their roster for another long postseason run.
Pedro Feliz failed to get a single, however. After falling behind in the count, 0 and 2, Feliz drove a Virgil Vasquez slider over the wall in left. The grand slam gave the Phillies a quick 5-0 lead. The Phillies' bats went dormant after the first frame, generating only three scattered hits, none of which were converted into runs. The early five-run advantage was sufficient, as J.A. Happ (seven innings, one run), Ryan Madson (scoreless eighth), and J.C. Romero (solo HR allowed in ninth) held the lead. Happ, the early favorite to finish second in NL RoY voting, completes the first half with a 6-0 record, and a sterling 2.90 ERA.
The Phillies complete the first half of their season with a 48-38 record, and a four-game NL East lead over Florida. The Phillies' once-horrific home record has improved to 22-23, as the Phils closed with a nine-win, ten-game homestand. The Phillies are were they want to be, leading the division at the break, but there are many questions to be answered in the second half. Will Cole Hamels return to form? Will Roy Halladay and/or Pedro Martinez join Hamels in the rotation? Will Paul Bako really remain the backup catcher? Will Eric Bruntlett really remain on an MLB roster? Which minor league prospects will be dealt to fortify the parent club's roster? (Kyle Drabek? Carlos Carrasco? Jack Taschner? Michael Taylor? Crazy Hot Dog Vendor?) Stay tuned for a maelstrom of personnel moves, as the Phillies try to protect their division lead, and replenish their roster for another long postseason run.
Wednesday, July 8, 2009
Wasted
The Phillies had Tuesday night's game against the Reds in the bag. Ryan Howard and Jayson Werth went back-to-back in the second inning, giving the Phils a 2-0 lead. The Phillies tacked on another run in the third, but should have done much more damage. The Phillies wasted later opportunities to increase their lead, leaving the bases loaded in the third, failing to convert on a Carlos Ruiz leadoff triple in the fourth inning, and stranding two more runners in the seventh. The Phillies went 1 for 12 with RISP, leaving twelve runners on base.
Starter J.A. Happ was almost able to overcome the Phillies' LOB issues. Almost. Happ only permitted six hits, but two of those hits were home runs, accounting for the three runs Happ allowed. The rookie went seven innings, walking none, whiffing seven, and certainly performing well enough to win. But he left with the score tied. Ryan Madson followed with a scoreless eighth, but closer Brad Lidge, pitching in a non-save situation, surrendered the winning Reds' run in the ninth. It was a tough loss, it what was a very winnable game.
A couple of questionable moves by Phillies' Manager Charlie Manuel also played a role in the loss. Using Brad Lidge in the ninth inning, in a non-save opportunity, was not among his questionable moves. Since the Phillies were at home, there would be no save opportunity, as the score was tied in the ninth. Lidge has been pitching better as of late, he just didn't get the job done on Tuesday. The questionable moves were his usage of Eric Bruntlett. Specifically, why does Manuel persist in allowing Eric Bruntlett to participate in MLB games? In the seventh inning, Manuel called in the .141-"hitting" Gnome to pinch-hit for Greg Dobbs. Bruntlett should not be pinch-hitting for anyone not named "Gabor", let alone Dobbs, who has been hitting well as of late. Manuel, presumably, was trying to maneuver Reds' Manager Dusty Baker into countering his move with a pitching change. Then, Manuel would have pinch-hit for Bruntlett with Matt Stairs. However, Baker did not feel the need to use a pitching change on an offensive non-entity, and Bruntlett struck out. The go-ahead run was stranded at third. Inexplicably, Bruntlett was sent to the plate again in the ninth, even though he did have legitimate MLB batters available to pinch-hit for him. (I would have batted pitcher Chan Ho Park for Bruntlett, and then had Park pitch the tenth inning. After Park had, heroically, tied the game.) The Gnome grounded out, reducing the Phillies' Win Expectancy from 10.2% to 0.0%.
The Phillies will battle the Reds in the third game of the four-game series Wednesday. Rodrigo Lopez, with one start in MLB this season, a good one last Friday, takes the hill for the Phils. Homer Bailey, who has also spent the majority of 2009 in AAA, starts for the Reds. This game could feature a lot of runs and/or runners left on base. In the hours before the onslaught begins, you have plenty of time to submit a few thousand votes for Shane Victorino!
Starter J.A. Happ was almost able to overcome the Phillies' LOB issues. Almost. Happ only permitted six hits, but two of those hits were home runs, accounting for the three runs Happ allowed. The rookie went seven innings, walking none, whiffing seven, and certainly performing well enough to win. But he left with the score tied. Ryan Madson followed with a scoreless eighth, but closer Brad Lidge, pitching in a non-save situation, surrendered the winning Reds' run in the ninth. It was a tough loss, it what was a very winnable game.
A couple of questionable moves by Phillies' Manager Charlie Manuel also played a role in the loss. Using Brad Lidge in the ninth inning, in a non-save opportunity, was not among his questionable moves. Since the Phillies were at home, there would be no save opportunity, as the score was tied in the ninth. Lidge has been pitching better as of late, he just didn't get the job done on Tuesday. The questionable moves were his usage of Eric Bruntlett. Specifically, why does Manuel persist in allowing Eric Bruntlett to participate in MLB games? In the seventh inning, Manuel called in the .141-"hitting" Gnome to pinch-hit for Greg Dobbs. Bruntlett should not be pinch-hitting for anyone not named "Gabor", let alone Dobbs, who has been hitting well as of late. Manuel, presumably, was trying to maneuver Reds' Manager Dusty Baker into countering his move with a pitching change. Then, Manuel would have pinch-hit for Bruntlett with Matt Stairs. However, Baker did not feel the need to use a pitching change on an offensive non-entity, and Bruntlett struck out. The go-ahead run was stranded at third. Inexplicably, Bruntlett was sent to the plate again in the ninth, even though he did have legitimate MLB batters available to pinch-hit for him. (I would have batted pitcher Chan Ho Park for Bruntlett, and then had Park pitch the tenth inning. After Park had, heroically, tied the game.) The Gnome grounded out, reducing the Phillies' Win Expectancy from 10.2% to 0.0%.
The Phillies will battle the Reds in the third game of the four-game series Wednesday. Rodrigo Lopez, with one start in MLB this season, a good one last Friday, takes the hill for the Phils. Homer Bailey, who has also spent the majority of 2009 in AAA, starts for the Reds. This game could feature a lot of runs and/or runners left on base. In the hours before the onslaught begins, you have plenty of time to submit a few thousand votes for Shane Victorino!
Friday, July 3, 2009
Rollins Reaches Milestone in Loss
The greatest Phillies moment in 2009 would have to be when the WFCs received their World Series rings. The second greatest moment of the season occurred in the third inning of Thursday night's game in Atlanta. With one out, and northpaw Javier Vazquez on the mound, Jimmy Rollins grounded a single into right field. Rollins' hitless streak had been snapped, after twenty-eight fruitless at bats. The game was stopped, as the bat, ball, and first base bag were removed from play. The historic artifacts are en route to Cooperstown, for future generations to enjoy. The crowd of over 38,000 rose to cheer the shortstop/Red Bull spokesman, as even Kotchman's Crotchmen realized the significance of the moment.
The Phillies seemed energized by the momentous event, and recovered from an early deficit, to tie the score at two. The Phils finished with eight hits on the night, quadrupling their output in a single day. Stopper J.A. Happ got in on the offensive explosion, blasting his first MLB hit, a fifth-inning single. Happ continued to excel on the mound, surrendering only two runs over seven innings. Happ's ERA fell to 2.96, in the one-hundred and four pitch, seven hit, effort. The young southpaw has pitched like a #2 starter over the past month, in fronting a rotation performing like #7 starters. When Happ left the game, the Phillies were tied 2-2, had a Win Probability of 50%, and were primed to extend their winning streak to one game.
Former interim closer Ryan Madson entered the game in the bottom of the eighth. Four batters later, the Phils trailed, 5-2. It was the second three-run implosion for Madson, in his last five appearances. The Phillies went down meekly in the top of the ninth. Adding insult to injury, Paul Bako was used as a pinch-hitter, popping out in what will, hopefully, be his last appearance as a Phillie. The sweep at the hands of the Braves dropped the Phillies into a first place tie, with Florida.
The Phillies host the Mets Friday, in the opener of a crucial three-game series. The Mets have the misfortune of having to face newly-promoted northpaw Rodrigo Lopez. With Jimmy Rollins heating up, and the Lopez-Madson-Brad Lidge trio armed and at-the-ready, the Phillies won't be in a first place tie for long. (They will soon be ahead of the other NL East teams, if that wasn't clear.)
The Phillies seemed energized by the momentous event, and recovered from an early deficit, to tie the score at two. The Phils finished with eight hits on the night, quadrupling their output in a single day. Stopper J.A. Happ got in on the offensive explosion, blasting his first MLB hit, a fifth-inning single. Happ continued to excel on the mound, surrendering only two runs over seven innings. Happ's ERA fell to 2.96, in the one-hundred and four pitch, seven hit, effort. The young southpaw has pitched like a #2 starter over the past month, in fronting a rotation performing like #7 starters. When Happ left the game, the Phillies were tied 2-2, had a Win Probability of 50%, and were primed to extend their winning streak to one game.
Former interim closer Ryan Madson entered the game in the bottom of the eighth. Four batters later, the Phils trailed, 5-2. It was the second three-run implosion for Madson, in his last five appearances. The Phillies went down meekly in the top of the ninth. Adding insult to injury, Paul Bako was used as a pinch-hitter, popping out in what will, hopefully, be his last appearance as a Phillie. The sweep at the hands of the Braves dropped the Phillies into a first place tie, with Florida.
The Phillies host the Mets Friday, in the opener of a crucial three-game series. The Mets have the misfortune of having to face newly-promoted northpaw Rodrigo Lopez. With Jimmy Rollins heating up, and the Lopez-Madson-Brad Lidge trio armed and at-the-ready, the Phillies won't be in a first place tie for long. (They will soon be ahead of the other NL East teams, if that wasn't clear.)
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