(The following is an excerpt from Baseball Prospectus 2011, and may contain spoilers.)
Prior to the 21st Century, the Philadelphia Phillies were rarely considered a model franchise. Rarely lucky or good, the embattled ballclub limped through the years, their record oft-charred by crippling injuries and questionable personnel decisions. With the exception of a few staggered oases (1915, 1950, 1980, 1983, and 1993), the name "Phillies" was synonymous with mediocrity, or worse. Often, much, much worse. The Phillies became the first MLB team to lose 10,000 games, a testament to their longevity as a franchise, as well as to their sustained impotence between the lines.
Things have gone a bit better for the Phils, in the current millennium. Actually, that is an understatement of similar magnitude to statements such as "Roy Halladay is a workhorse.", or "Placido Polanco has a sizeable melon." In making their third consecutive World Series appearance, and winning their second World Championship of the Century, the 2010 Phillies were certainly the greatest edition in the team's history. The 102 regular-season wins posted by the club still left the franchise 1087 games below .500 for their history, but this now-model franchise appears to mere decades away from a lifetime winning record. The only burning question is how they are going to able to afford to continue to roster so many superstars.
The success of the 2010 Phillies has to be, mostly, attributed to their outstanding starting pitching. Acquiring Roy Halladay was expensive, both in terms of salary, and players. The 2010 Cy Young award winner was worth every penny, and every promising prospect. Besides posting one of the best statistical seasons in baseball history, the tireless ace set the standard for MLB's best rotation. The sturdy staff had four hurlers exceed 200 IP, completing an impressive thirty-two games. Trusting in the NL's best defense, the starters were able to go deep into games, while still keeping their pitch counts manageable. Cole Hamels was the same ace he has been his entire career, without the BABIP issues that had plagued his 2009 season. Joe Blanton continued his evolution from proclaimed innings-eater, to actual, quality innings-eater. J.A. Happ continued to bend BABIP to his will, prompting sabermetricians to question whether the southpaw was simply a two-season outlier, or whether a deeper magic was in play. Kyle Kendrick took over the fifth spot in May, replacing veteran Jamie Moyer. Kendrick held the fort at the back of the rotation, until the Phils' second annual acquisition of Cliff Lee further solidified the starting pitching. Hamels and Lee combined to split the six postseason victories not claimed by Halladay.
The health and performance of the starting pitchers also had a beneficial effect on the bullpen. Closer Brad Lidge flourished with a reduced workload, rarely being required to pitch in consecutive games. The Phils' offseason signings of well-traveled vets Jose Contreras and Danys Baez had appeared somewhat questionable at the time, but they demonstrated the club's wisdom in roster construction, performing well in their middle relief roles. Holdovers Ryan Madson and Chad Durbin had career years, excelling as Lidge's setup men. Only reliever J.C. Romero struggled, as injury and legal woes continued to derail his career.
While the pitching gets most of the credit for the Phillies' success, perhaps deservingly so, the club's position players also were quite deserving of merit. Chase Utley's MVP season, Ryan Howard's 52 HRs, and Bearded Jayson Werth's contract year performance keyed the offense. Shane Victorino was second to only Werth among NL outfielders, in launching 31 HRs. While Victorino's sudden power surge was as shocking as his uncanny ability to design and sell $40 t-shirts, he certainly wasn't the Phillies biggest surprise in 2010.
Brian Bocock entered Spring Training hoping to claim a roster spot with the Lehigh Valley IronPigs (AAA). By the time the regular season began, Bocock had, in fact claimed a roster spot. As the parent club's starting shortstop. Jimmy Rollins, the 2007 NL MVP, was relegated to the utility role that had seemed destined for light-hitting Juan Castro. Bocock's numbers at the plate were less reminiscent of Rollins, and more reminiscent of former Phils neophyte Joe Millette. However, Bocock also posted one of the greatest defensive seasons in the game's history, a UZR-heavy 9.2 WAR, and a third place finish in the NL Gold Glove voting. Rollins, dealt to Boston on May 11, did win a Gold Glove. But the Phillies' enlightened decision to install Bocock as the starter early in the season allowed them to maximize their return for Rollins, as well as to free up the payroll that, later, allowed them to fit Lee into their $140MM budget.
(BP2011 will be available in January 2011, wherever fine books are sold.)
Showing posts with label Roy Halladay. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Roy Halladay. Show all posts
Sunday, March 14, 2010
Sunday, March 7, 2010
Halladay Music
One of the most prominent Spring Training storylines has been All Things Roy Halladay. We have learned of his intense desire to perform in the postseason. We have noted the relationship between his levels of facial hair, and his wOBA against (a bearded Halladay is a dominant Halladay). The effect Halladay has had on his teammates, particularly his apprentice (Kyle Kendrick), is much more difficult to quantify, but certainly beneficial. The indomitable northpaw's first game action as a Phillie included three non-strikes, among his twenty-four offerings. However, he will, undoubtedly, improve upon those numbers, as the season progresses. (Besides, it's not like he gave up any runs, or hits, or anything like that.) There has been a veritable multitude of words spent on Halladay-related topics since his acquistion, yet there is one specific area that has not yet been suitably explored.
Since the Dawn of Sabermetrics, the factors that influence a pitcher's success (or failure) have been studied intensely. The areas that a pitcher has control over (whiffs, walks, and facial hair)
have proven to be the best predictors of success. BABIP and HR/FB provide clues as to the sustainability of a pitcher's performance. A pitcher's Entrance Music appears to have a discernible effect on opposing batters, but the study of this particular phenomenon is still in it's infancy. While determining the specific impact of an intimidating entrance song is, currently, an imprecise science, partially as a result of imperfect information and insufficient sample sizes, few question that such an impact exists.
Roy Halladay suffered from the adverse effects of a replacement level entrance song, during his time in Toronto. Robert Palmer's "Bad Case of Loving You (Doctor, Doctor)" is not a worthy choice for a perennial Cy Young candidate, especially one performing for a perennial World Series contender. There are numerous alternatives that can be utilized here, some including Halladay's nickname ("Doc"), and same playing on his surname. Making the assumption that the entrance song will only be played during home games, we can adjust for CBP's affect on Halladay's ERA. Assuming eighteen home starts, and optimal facial hair levels, we can use a proprietary formula to project Halladay's ERA with each of the potential entrance songs considered.
Dizzee Rascal, "Holiday"
Pertinent lyrics: "If you ain't doing nothing, let's fly away, drive away, take a holiday."
Commentary: This option could get the CBP crowd revved up, but won't intimidate many opposing batters.
Projected ERA: 3.19
Thompson Twins, "Doctor, Doctor"
Pertinent lyrics: "Doctor, Doctor, can't you see I'm burning, burning? Oh Doctor, Doctor, is this love I'm feeling?"
Commentary: Pete Alexander who have struggled to keep his ERA under 3, with this entrance song.
Projected ERA: 3.43
Green Day, "Holiday"
Pertinent Lyrics: "I beg to dream and differ from the hollow lies, This is the dawning of the rest of our lives, On Holiday!
Commentary: A worthy choice, but not sufficiently intimidating.
Projected ERA: 2.86
The Dandy Warhols, "Every Day Should Be a Holiday"
Pertinent Lyrics: "Anytime, Baby let's go, Every day should be a holiday"
Commentary: Perhaps a bit dated, but a decent choice.
Projected ERA: 3.06
Lindsey Buckingham, "Holiday Road"
Pertinent Lyrics: "I found out long ago, It's a long way down this holiday road."
Commentary: Reminiscent of the movie "Vacation." About as intimidating as Marty Moose.
Projected ERA: 3.38
Motley Crue, "Dr. Feelgood"
Pertinent Lyrics: "He's the one they call Dr. Feelgood, He's the one that makes you feel alright."
Commentary: Would not be an appropriate choice for Roy Halladay.
Projected ERA: N/A
The Dead Kennedys, "Holiday in Cambodia"
Commentary: Much less appropriate than the previous option.
Projected ERA: N/A
UFO, "Doctor, Doctor"
Pertinent Lyrics: "Doctor, Doctor please, oh the mess I'm in"
Commentary: Halladay does not get into messes, nor is he a "nervous boy."
Projected ERA: 3.28
Scorpions, "Holiday"
Pertinent Lyrics: "Let me take you far away, You'd like a holiday."
Commentary: Too slow-paced, troublesome German-accented vocals.
Projected ERA: 3.34
Pantera, "Psycho Holiday"
Pertinent Lyrics: "Been put through the test, your mind laid to rest, you're on a psycho holiday."
Commentary: This appears to be the optimal entrance song.
Projected ERA: 2.34
While there are other possibilities that have yet to be examined, the projected ERA (2.34) produced by Pantera's "Psycho Holiday" appears rather difficult to beat. This is not surprising, as even Adam Eaton could (likely) produce a sub-6.00 ERA, with a Pantera entrance song. Hopefully, the statistical consultants employed by the Phillies organization will come to a similar, or superior, conclusion.
Since the Dawn of Sabermetrics, the factors that influence a pitcher's success (or failure) have been studied intensely. The areas that a pitcher has control over (whiffs, walks, and facial hair)
have proven to be the best predictors of success. BABIP and HR/FB provide clues as to the sustainability of a pitcher's performance. A pitcher's Entrance Music appears to have a discernible effect on opposing batters, but the study of this particular phenomenon is still in it's infancy. While determining the specific impact of an intimidating entrance song is, currently, an imprecise science, partially as a result of imperfect information and insufficient sample sizes, few question that such an impact exists.
Roy Halladay suffered from the adverse effects of a replacement level entrance song, during his time in Toronto. Robert Palmer's "Bad Case of Loving You (Doctor, Doctor)" is not a worthy choice for a perennial Cy Young candidate, especially one performing for a perennial World Series contender. There are numerous alternatives that can be utilized here, some including Halladay's nickname ("Doc"), and same playing on his surname. Making the assumption that the entrance song will only be played during home games, we can adjust for CBP's affect on Halladay's ERA. Assuming eighteen home starts, and optimal facial hair levels, we can use a proprietary formula to project Halladay's ERA with each of the potential entrance songs considered.
Dizzee Rascal, "Holiday"
Pertinent lyrics: "If you ain't doing nothing, let's fly away, drive away, take a holiday."
Commentary: This option could get the CBP crowd revved up, but won't intimidate many opposing batters.
Projected ERA: 3.19
Thompson Twins, "Doctor, Doctor"
Pertinent lyrics: "Doctor, Doctor, can't you see I'm burning, burning? Oh Doctor, Doctor, is this love I'm feeling?"
Commentary: Pete Alexander who have struggled to keep his ERA under 3, with this entrance song.
Projected ERA: 3.43
Green Day, "Holiday"
Pertinent Lyrics: "I beg to dream and differ from the hollow lies, This is the dawning of the rest of our lives, On Holiday!
Commentary: A worthy choice, but not sufficiently intimidating.
Projected ERA: 2.86
The Dandy Warhols, "Every Day Should Be a Holiday"
Pertinent Lyrics: "Anytime, Baby let's go, Every day should be a holiday"
Commentary: Perhaps a bit dated, but a decent choice.
Projected ERA: 3.06
Lindsey Buckingham, "Holiday Road"
Pertinent Lyrics: "I found out long ago, It's a long way down this holiday road."
Commentary: Reminiscent of the movie "Vacation." About as intimidating as Marty Moose.
Projected ERA: 3.38
Motley Crue, "Dr. Feelgood"
Pertinent Lyrics: "He's the one they call Dr. Feelgood, He's the one that makes you feel alright."
Commentary: Would not be an appropriate choice for Roy Halladay.
Projected ERA: N/A
The Dead Kennedys, "Holiday in Cambodia"
Commentary: Much less appropriate than the previous option.
Projected ERA: N/A
UFO, "Doctor, Doctor"
Pertinent Lyrics: "Doctor, Doctor please, oh the mess I'm in"
Commentary: Halladay does not get into messes, nor is he a "nervous boy."
Projected ERA: 3.28
Scorpions, "Holiday"
Pertinent Lyrics: "Let me take you far away, You'd like a holiday."
Commentary: Too slow-paced, troublesome German-accented vocals.
Projected ERA: 3.34
Pantera, "Psycho Holiday"
Pertinent Lyrics: "Been put through the test, your mind laid to rest, you're on a psycho holiday."
Commentary: This appears to be the optimal entrance song.
Projected ERA: 2.34
While there are other possibilities that have yet to be examined, the projected ERA (2.34) produced by Pantera's "Psycho Holiday" appears rather difficult to beat. This is not surprising, as even Adam Eaton could (likely) produce a sub-6.00 ERA, with a Pantera entrance song. Hopefully, the statistical consultants employed by the Phillies organization will come to a similar, or superior, conclusion.
Sunday, January 17, 2010
Phillies' Offseason Review: Major Additions
Remember when the cost-conscious Phillies were largely invisible during the offseason? Those days are almost as forgotten as those lost seasons when the Phillies were playing out the string by August. These Phillies have a $140 million budget, and are very active participants in free agency. Whether they should be a little less active is up for debate, but you can't argue with their recent results: three consecutive NL East titles, two World Series appearances, and one WFC(!).
Roy Halladay ('10 salary: $15.75M, 11: $20M, 12: $20M, 13:$20M, 14:$20M option)The cost to acquire Halladay was high: top prospects Kyle Drabek, Michael Taylor, and Travis D'Arnaud were sent to Toronto for one season of Halladay, plus $6M. Halladay quickly agreed to a (likely below-market value) extension, for an additional three years, plus an option.
Halladay has been one of MLB's premier pitchers over the past four seasons, posting WARs of 5.7, 5.6, 7.4, and 7.3. With the cost per WAR on the free agent market approximating $4M, if Halladay keeps his WARs over a very manageable (manageable for him, not manageable for most hurlers) 5.0 per season, the Phillies have done well here.
It remains to be seen how the players dealt to Toronto will perform, and if Halladay (930 IP since 2006) will be able stay healthy throughout his Phillies career. But the prospect of having Halladay (HALLADAY!) fronting the Phils' rotation for the next five seasons is rather thrilling.
Placido Polanco ($18M guaranteed over three seasons, plus '13 option for $5.5M)
The biggest names among free agent 3Bs were Adrian Beltre and Chone Figgins. The Phillies signed...2B Placido Polanco to play 3B. Polanco has been a strong defender at 2B, but it is questionable as to how well his arm will play at 3B. Polanco has seen his wOBA drop from .371 in 2007, to only .321 in 2009. Poor luck may have been a factor in 2009, as Polanco's BABIP of .295 was well below his career average of .314. Polanco will be thirty-five in October, and his offensive abilities may be on the decline.
Polanco posted a 3.1 WAR in 2009, largely due to his defensive prowess. But Polanco's UZR of 11.4 in 2009 may be overstating his fielding abilities. Over his previous three seasons, Polanco's has an average UZR of 7.5. Adjusting slightly for position change/age, an UZR between 5 and 6 seems more likely.
The Phillies will pay Polanco the (approximate) free agent market price for a 1.5 WAR player. Polanco will likely prove to be a good value in '10 and (possibly) '11, but the Phils may regret including that third year.
Brian Schneider ($2.75M guaranteed over two seasons)
The days of Paul Bako as the MLB backup are over. This is certainly a good thing.Schneider struggled offensively in '09, but part of that was due to a miniscule BABIP of .233 (career average BABIP: .281). His LD% dropped from 25.7% to 13.2%, so his difficulties with the bat might not have been all BABIP's fault.
Schneider, a capable defensive catcher, should provide the Phils with sufficient WAR value.
However, this is another case where the Phils may have been better off with a one-year deal. Instead of rushing to sign Schneider, the Phils may have been able to wait out the market a bit, and gotten a more favorable deal.
Danys Baez ($5.25M guaranteed over the next two seasons)
On the plus side, Baez is neither Brandon Lyon nor Fernando Rodney, both of whom got much more many, and may post similar results. On the minus side, two guaranteed years seems a year too much. Perhaps a one-year $1.5M deal would have been more appropriate, considering Baez' WAR of .3 in 2009.
Baez K/9 has decreased every season since 2004, and his 4.02 ERA last season was aided by an unsustainable .239 BABIP. If Baez can repeat last seasons GB% of 60.9%, he has a chance for some success in middle relief. Retaining Clay Condrey, at approx. one-third of Baez' salary, may have been more prudent decision.
Jose Contreras (reportedly, a one-year agreement for approx. $1 M)
With Chan Ho Park looking to find a spot in another MLB team's rotation, the Phils needed a veteran bullpen arm, who could make an occasional spot start. Contreras should fit this role quite nicely. Contreras posted some ugly conventional numbers as a starter in 2009, but a .325 BABIP and a 62.7 LOB% were factors. His FIP of 4.11 is not nearly as unsightly as his 5.42 ERA as a starter with the White Sox.
Contreras posted a K/BB of 2.00, with a K/9 of 7.25. He can still dial up his velocity to the low-90s, and should be an asset as a reliever, provided his workload is kept manageable.
Ross Gload ($2.6M guaranteed over two seasons)
Gload was signed to take the place of Matt Stairs as one of the Phils' primary bench options. Stairs posted a WAR of 0.0 in an ugly 2009, which was eerily similar to Gload's -.1 WAR. Gload has little power and little defensive value. He is a below average offensive player, and it is questionable as to why the Phils felt the need to give him a second guaranteed year.
The Phils likely could have filled this role more cheaply with a AAAA player (Andy Tracy?), and then upgraded with a cheap salary dump for the stretch run, if desired.
Juan Castro ('10 salary: $.70M, 11: $.75M option/$50K buyout)
Castro, who will be 38 years of age in June, had a career year in 2009, posting a .277 BA. Castro's sudden offensive surge was likely the byproduct of an aberrant .349 BABIP (career BABIP: .267). Only five of Castro's thirty-one hits in 2009 were for extra bases (four doubles, one homer).
Castro will be the backup SS, going 0 for 3, with a strikeout, once every couple of weeks. He will also be used as a pinch-hitter more frequently than he merits, and will replace Jimmy Rollins late in blowouts less frequently than he should.
Hopefully, Chase Utley's days off will be covered by moving Polanco to 2B, and starting Greg Dobbs at 3B. Getting Dobbs more playing time should make him a more effective player, and getting Castro less playing time should make Phillies fans less disconcerted.
The Phils probably should have just saved .30M, and rostered Wilson Valdez as the backup middle infielder.
The Phillies have made some good moves for 2010, but may have overpaid a bit in term and salary. Last offseason, the Phillies rushed into the market, signing Raul Ibanez for three years, and Jamie Moyer for two. This offseason the Phillies rushed to give Placido Polanco three years, and Danys Baez (and Ross Gload and Brian Schneider) two. These extra years given to declining veterans may combine to exact a price in future fiscal flexibility.
General Manager Ruben Amaro, Jr. has been quick and decisive in his forays into the free agent market. With Jayson Werth and Ryan Howard approaching free agency, in the next two offseasons, respectively, the cumulative weight of these ill-advised contracts may come back to haunt the Phillies. But we'll worry about that after the Phillies' third consecutive World Series appearance, this October.
Roy Halladay ('10 salary: $15.75M, 11: $20M, 12: $20M, 13:$20M, 14:$20M option)The cost to acquire Halladay was high: top prospects Kyle Drabek, Michael Taylor, and Travis D'Arnaud were sent to Toronto for one season of Halladay, plus $6M. Halladay quickly agreed to a (likely below-market value) extension, for an additional three years, plus an option.
Halladay has been one of MLB's premier pitchers over the past four seasons, posting WARs of 5.7, 5.6, 7.4, and 7.3. With the cost per WAR on the free agent market approximating $4M, if Halladay keeps his WARs over a very manageable (manageable for him, not manageable for most hurlers) 5.0 per season, the Phillies have done well here.
It remains to be seen how the players dealt to Toronto will perform, and if Halladay (930 IP since 2006) will be able stay healthy throughout his Phillies career. But the prospect of having Halladay (HALLADAY!) fronting the Phils' rotation for the next five seasons is rather thrilling.
Placido Polanco ($18M guaranteed over three seasons, plus '13 option for $5.5M)
The biggest names among free agent 3Bs were Adrian Beltre and Chone Figgins. The Phillies signed...2B Placido Polanco to play 3B. Polanco has been a strong defender at 2B, but it is questionable as to how well his arm will play at 3B. Polanco has seen his wOBA drop from .371 in 2007, to only .321 in 2009. Poor luck may have been a factor in 2009, as Polanco's BABIP of .295 was well below his career average of .314. Polanco will be thirty-five in October, and his offensive abilities may be on the decline.
Polanco posted a 3.1 WAR in 2009, largely due to his defensive prowess. But Polanco's UZR of 11.4 in 2009 may be overstating his fielding abilities. Over his previous three seasons, Polanco's has an average UZR of 7.5. Adjusting slightly for position change/age, an UZR between 5 and 6 seems more likely.
The Phillies will pay Polanco the (approximate) free agent market price for a 1.5 WAR player. Polanco will likely prove to be a good value in '10 and (possibly) '11, but the Phils may regret including that third year.
Brian Schneider ($2.75M guaranteed over two seasons)
The days of Paul Bako as the MLB backup are over. This is certainly a good thing.Schneider struggled offensively in '09, but part of that was due to a miniscule BABIP of .233 (career average BABIP: .281). His LD% dropped from 25.7% to 13.2%, so his difficulties with the bat might not have been all BABIP's fault.
Schneider, a capable defensive catcher, should provide the Phils with sufficient WAR value.
However, this is another case where the Phils may have been better off with a one-year deal. Instead of rushing to sign Schneider, the Phils may have been able to wait out the market a bit, and gotten a more favorable deal.
Danys Baez ($5.25M guaranteed over the next two seasons)
On the plus side, Baez is neither Brandon Lyon nor Fernando Rodney, both of whom got much more many, and may post similar results. On the minus side, two guaranteed years seems a year too much. Perhaps a one-year $1.5M deal would have been more appropriate, considering Baez' WAR of .3 in 2009.
Baez K/9 has decreased every season since 2004, and his 4.02 ERA last season was aided by an unsustainable .239 BABIP. If Baez can repeat last seasons GB% of 60.9%, he has a chance for some success in middle relief. Retaining Clay Condrey, at approx. one-third of Baez' salary, may have been more prudent decision.
Jose Contreras (reportedly, a one-year agreement for approx. $1 M)
With Chan Ho Park looking to find a spot in another MLB team's rotation, the Phils needed a veteran bullpen arm, who could make an occasional spot start. Contreras should fit this role quite nicely. Contreras posted some ugly conventional numbers as a starter in 2009, but a .325 BABIP and a 62.7 LOB% were factors. His FIP of 4.11 is not nearly as unsightly as his 5.42 ERA as a starter with the White Sox.
Contreras posted a K/BB of 2.00, with a K/9 of 7.25. He can still dial up his velocity to the low-90s, and should be an asset as a reliever, provided his workload is kept manageable.
Ross Gload ($2.6M guaranteed over two seasons)
Gload was signed to take the place of Matt Stairs as one of the Phils' primary bench options. Stairs posted a WAR of 0.0 in an ugly 2009, which was eerily similar to Gload's -.1 WAR. Gload has little power and little defensive value. He is a below average offensive player, and it is questionable as to why the Phils felt the need to give him a second guaranteed year.
The Phils likely could have filled this role more cheaply with a AAAA player (Andy Tracy?), and then upgraded with a cheap salary dump for the stretch run, if desired.
Juan Castro ('10 salary: $.70M, 11: $.75M option/$50K buyout)
Castro, who will be 38 years of age in June, had a career year in 2009, posting a .277 BA. Castro's sudden offensive surge was likely the byproduct of an aberrant .349 BABIP (career BABIP: .267). Only five of Castro's thirty-one hits in 2009 were for extra bases (four doubles, one homer).
Castro will be the backup SS, going 0 for 3, with a strikeout, once every couple of weeks. He will also be used as a pinch-hitter more frequently than he merits, and will replace Jimmy Rollins late in blowouts less frequently than he should.
Hopefully, Chase Utley's days off will be covered by moving Polanco to 2B, and starting Greg Dobbs at 3B. Getting Dobbs more playing time should make him a more effective player, and getting Castro less playing time should make Phillies fans less disconcerted.
The Phils probably should have just saved .30M, and rostered Wilson Valdez as the backup middle infielder.
The Phillies have made some good moves for 2010, but may have overpaid a bit in term and salary. Last offseason, the Phillies rushed into the market, signing Raul Ibanez for three years, and Jamie Moyer for two. This offseason the Phillies rushed to give Placido Polanco three years, and Danys Baez (and Ross Gload and Brian Schneider) two. These extra years given to declining veterans may combine to exact a price in future fiscal flexibility.
General Manager Ruben Amaro, Jr. has been quick and decisive in his forays into the free agent market. With Jayson Werth and Ryan Howard approaching free agency, in the next two offseasons, respectively, the cumulative weight of these ill-advised contracts may come back to haunt the Phillies. But we'll worry about that after the Phillies' third consecutive World Series appearance, this October.
Wednesday, July 29, 2009
Breaking News: Carrasco, Donald, and Marson Out of Lehigh Valley Lineup For Morning Game
Potential trade pieces Carlos Carrasco, Jason Donald, and Lou Marson are all on the bench, as the Lehigh Valley IronPigs (AAA) play an 11:05am game against the Columbus Clippers.
Infielder Jason Donald, who returned from the DL on Tuesday night, was not expected to start. Catcher Lou Marson was also not expected to start, in a morning game after a night game. (Outfield prospect Michael Taylor, who's name has been oft-mentioned in trade proposals, is in the starting lineup.)
Carlos Carrasco was scheduled as the starting pitcher, but was replaced by journeyman bullpenner Jake Woods. Carrasco has been mentioned in trade talk with Cleveland, who are considering trading southpaw Cliff Lee. Carrasco's 6-9 record, and 5.18 ERA do not look very impressive, but the northpaw is only twenty-two, has "electric" stuff, and has suffered from BABIP (.330) and LOB% (62.8) issues. His FIP of 4.01 is impressive, when you consider his age/experience level.
Carrasco's removal could:
-mean that the Phillies are close to dealing Carrasco to Cleveland
-that the Blue Jays have softened their alleged trade demands, and are considering Carrasco as part of the package for Roy Halladay
-be a bluff by the Phillies, who want the Blue Jays to believe that the Phillies are close to dealing for Lee
Things continue to get interesting...
Infielder Jason Donald, who returned from the DL on Tuesday night, was not expected to start. Catcher Lou Marson was also not expected to start, in a morning game after a night game. (Outfield prospect Michael Taylor, who's name has been oft-mentioned in trade proposals, is in the starting lineup.)
Carlos Carrasco was scheduled as the starting pitcher, but was replaced by journeyman bullpenner Jake Woods. Carrasco has been mentioned in trade talk with Cleveland, who are considering trading southpaw Cliff Lee. Carrasco's 6-9 record, and 5.18 ERA do not look very impressive, but the northpaw is only twenty-two, has "electric" stuff, and has suffered from BABIP (.330) and LOB% (62.8) issues. His FIP of 4.01 is impressive, when you consider his age/experience level.
Carrasco's removal could:
-mean that the Phillies are close to dealing Carrasco to Cleveland
-that the Blue Jays have softened their alleged trade demands, and are considering Carrasco as part of the package for Roy Halladay
-be a bluff by the Phillies, who want the Blue Jays to believe that the Phillies are close to dealing for Lee
Things continue to get interesting...
Tuesday, July 28, 2009
Halladay to Phils: Just a Matter of Time...
For the better part of the twenty-first century, I've fantasized of a Phillies rotation fronted by Roy Halladay. Now, with only days remaining before the trade deadline, Halladay in a Phillies uniform is about to become a reality. No questions asked. It's only a matter of determining which Phillies' prospects will comprise the bounty headed to Toronto. Well, that, and picking a uniform number for the new Phillies' ace. (I'm thinking #23. I'm sure Gabor won't mind giving it up.)
The next few days are a time to sit back, and observe the proceedings with detached amusement, with the final result all but assured. The Blue Jays need to cut payroll, immediately. The Blue Jays need to replace Halladay with cost-controlled prospects, which the Phillies have in abundance. Halladay will only approve a trade to a few teams, at most. Perhaps, he will only approve a trade to the Phillies, a strong playoff contender with a Spring Training home conveniently located in Clearwater, Florida. The Blue Jays do not want to trade Halladay within their division, where they'll have to face him five times a season (at least), and where he can help keep them out of the playoffs. These truths are evident. These truths are the reason Roy Halladay will be a Phillie, when the dust generated by the trading deadline clears. All of the negotiations through the media, the arbitrary pre-trade deadline deadlines, the ineffectual efforts to gain leverage, the repeated posturing, the collecting of prospect packages from teams not actually in the running, the low probabilities periodically assigned to the possibility of a Halladay trade, are all almost irrelevant. Halladay will be a Phillie.
As for the prospects the Phillies will eventually surrender to Toronto, in exchange for two postseason runs headed by baseball's best pitcher, who knows what will become of them? J.A. Happ, the Phillies' best starter this season, could easily regress into a back-of-the-rotation arm. Top prospect Kyle Drabek is coming off Tommy John surgery. His usage this season seems to be with confidence (and trade value) maximation in mind. He started out in A ball, where he was well ahead of the competition. A promotion to AA followed, where he has only started on the road once, against the victory-challenged Altoona Curve, and their sub-.400 winning percentage. Drabek may not even be a Happ. Outfield prospects Michael Taylor and Dominic Brown could be All-Stars, or they could be Marlon Byrds or Greg Golsons. Either way, the Phillies could have two more WFCs, before either reaches the Major Leagues. Jason Donald? A Bruntlett, without the Economics degree. Lou Marson? A singles-hitting, backup catcher.
So, don't get overly concerned about the Halladay Deal. The Phillies are going to surrender as few prospects as possible, in exchange for one of MLB's few "givens." Relax, enjoy the ride, and make some room on your bobblehead shelf for a Phillies bobble with the name "Halladay" on the back, and for two more World Championship trophy paperweights.
The next few days are a time to sit back, and observe the proceedings with detached amusement, with the final result all but assured. The Blue Jays need to cut payroll, immediately. The Blue Jays need to replace Halladay with cost-controlled prospects, which the Phillies have in abundance. Halladay will only approve a trade to a few teams, at most. Perhaps, he will only approve a trade to the Phillies, a strong playoff contender with a Spring Training home conveniently located in Clearwater, Florida. The Blue Jays do not want to trade Halladay within their division, where they'll have to face him five times a season (at least), and where he can help keep them out of the playoffs. These truths are evident. These truths are the reason Roy Halladay will be a Phillie, when the dust generated by the trading deadline clears. All of the negotiations through the media, the arbitrary pre-trade deadline deadlines, the ineffectual efforts to gain leverage, the repeated posturing, the collecting of prospect packages from teams not actually in the running, the low probabilities periodically assigned to the possibility of a Halladay trade, are all almost irrelevant. Halladay will be a Phillie.
As for the prospects the Phillies will eventually surrender to Toronto, in exchange for two postseason runs headed by baseball's best pitcher, who knows what will become of them? J.A. Happ, the Phillies' best starter this season, could easily regress into a back-of-the-rotation arm. Top prospect Kyle Drabek is coming off Tommy John surgery. His usage this season seems to be with confidence (and trade value) maximation in mind. He started out in A ball, where he was well ahead of the competition. A promotion to AA followed, where he has only started on the road once, against the victory-challenged Altoona Curve, and their sub-.400 winning percentage. Drabek may not even be a Happ. Outfield prospects Michael Taylor and Dominic Brown could be All-Stars, or they could be Marlon Byrds or Greg Golsons. Either way, the Phillies could have two more WFCs, before either reaches the Major Leagues. Jason Donald? A Bruntlett, without the Economics degree. Lou Marson? A singles-hitting, backup catcher.
So, don't get overly concerned about the Halladay Deal. The Phillies are going to surrender as few prospects as possible, in exchange for one of MLB's few "givens." Relax, enjoy the ride, and make some room on your bobblehead shelf for a Phillies bobble with the name "Halladay" on the back, and for two more World Championship trophy paperweights.
Friday, July 24, 2009
Bunts and Balks (7/24)
According to Andy Martino of the Philadelphia Inquirer, "baseball sources" are indicating that the Blue Jays want J.A. Happ, Kyle Drabek, and Dominic Brown, in exchange for Roy Halladay.
This contradicts with the "hockey sources", who indicated that the Blue Jays wanted Claude Giroux, Mike Richards, and Marc-Andre Bourdon.
Happ is expendable, but Drabek AND Brown? That's a pretty hefty price. But the Phils would be getting a year, and a few months, of one of the best pitchers in MLB. If the Phils would control Halladay for a few seasons, giving up Drabek and Brown would be a lot easier.
Hopefully, the Jays' price will come down a bit.
The Lehigh Valley IronPigs (AAA) lost to the Gwinnett Braves on Friday, 7-5. The FeHogs fell behind 3-0, but pulled to within 3-2, before start Carlos Carrasco surrendered a three-run homer with two outs in the sixth. Carrasco probably didn't help his dwindling trade value, by allowing six runs, in six innings (four hits, four walks/five strikeouts, one home run allowed). Michael Taylor went 1 for 3, with a walk and a stolen base, in the losing effort.
The Reading Phillies (AA) crushed the Bowie Baysox, 7-1. Starter Mike Stutes had another strong performance, allowing only one run, over seven and one-third innings (six hits, two walks/eight strikeouts, one home runs allowed). In July, Stutes has a 1.80 ERA, in five starts (thirty innings). In his last ten starts, Stutes has a 2.81 ERA, in fifty-seven and two-thirds innings. (Stutes hasn't allowed more than three earned runs in any of those ten starts.) Perhaps Stutes should be as highly regarded as rotation-mates Joe Savery and Vance Worley?
Neil Sellers was a single short of a cycle, as his 3 for 5 night raised his average to .325. Kevin Mahar increased his average to .323, with a 3 for 5 effort of his own.
The Clearwater Threshers (A) shut out the Charlotte Stone Crabs, 2-0.
Darren Byrd (five innings, four hits, one walk/five whiffs), Carlos Monasterios (two innings, one hit), Scott Mathieson (one inning, one hit, one walk/three strikeouts), and Michael Schwimer (one inning, one strikeout) combined for the shutout. Steve Susdorf was 0 for 3, dropping his average to .394. Dominic Brown was 1 for 3, and his average fell to .300. Brown reached base twice, and was picked off once, and caught stealing second the other time.
This contradicts with the "hockey sources", who indicated that the Blue Jays wanted Claude Giroux, Mike Richards, and Marc-Andre Bourdon.
Happ is expendable, but Drabek AND Brown? That's a pretty hefty price. But the Phils would be getting a year, and a few months, of one of the best pitchers in MLB. If the Phils would control Halladay for a few seasons, giving up Drabek and Brown would be a lot easier.
Hopefully, the Jays' price will come down a bit.
The Lehigh Valley IronPigs (AAA) lost to the Gwinnett Braves on Friday, 7-5. The FeHogs fell behind 3-0, but pulled to within 3-2, before start Carlos Carrasco surrendered a three-run homer with two outs in the sixth. Carrasco probably didn't help his dwindling trade value, by allowing six runs, in six innings (four hits, four walks/five strikeouts, one home run allowed). Michael Taylor went 1 for 3, with a walk and a stolen base, in the losing effort.
The Reading Phillies (AA) crushed the Bowie Baysox, 7-1. Starter Mike Stutes had another strong performance, allowing only one run, over seven and one-third innings (six hits, two walks/eight strikeouts, one home runs allowed). In July, Stutes has a 1.80 ERA, in five starts (thirty innings). In his last ten starts, Stutes has a 2.81 ERA, in fifty-seven and two-thirds innings. (Stutes hasn't allowed more than three earned runs in any of those ten starts.) Perhaps Stutes should be as highly regarded as rotation-mates Joe Savery and Vance Worley?
Neil Sellers was a single short of a cycle, as his 3 for 5 night raised his average to .325. Kevin Mahar increased his average to .323, with a 3 for 5 effort of his own.
The Clearwater Threshers (A) shut out the Charlotte Stone Crabs, 2-0.
Darren Byrd (five innings, four hits, one walk/five whiffs), Carlos Monasterios (two innings, one hit), Scott Mathieson (one inning, one hit, one walk/three strikeouts), and Michael Schwimer (one inning, one strikeout) combined for the shutout. Steve Susdorf was 0 for 3, dropping his average to .394. Dominic Brown was 1 for 3, and his average fell to .300. Brown reached base twice, and was picked off once, and caught stealing second the other time.
Transaction Action
Pedro Martinez will make his first (non-simulated) rehab start on Sunday, for the Clearwater Threshers (A). Game time is scheduled for 4:00pm, and can be followed via the visiting St. Lucie Mets' internet broadcast. Martinez' appearance should increase attendance at Clearwater's Bright House Field, on an afternoon when Wet N' Wacky Day was already expected to lead to large crowds. If you are fortunate enough to attend, please refrain from hurling water balloons at Martinez. Thanks in advance.
The Roy Halladay Deal hasn't been officially consummated, and Halladay is expected to make the start for Toronto on Friday night. The probability of Halladay being traded has ranged between 0 and 100%, over the past few days. Numerous teams are, reportedly, involved in trade talks, and countless top minor league prospects have been mentioned. Toronto GM J.P. Ricciardi tried to impose an arbitrary, pre-trade deadline, deadline of July 28th, but that doesn't seem to have panned out.
The Phillies still appear to be among the frontrunners, and the names Kyle Drabek, J.A. Happ, Lou Marson, Michael Taylor, Jason Donald, and Dominic Brown have all been bandied about.
If Amaro could get Halladay for Happ, Marson, and Donald, he should do the deal in a millisecond. Halladay turns the Phillies from World Series contender, to World Series favorite.
Phillies' reliever Chad Durbin was placed on the 15-day DL, after experiencing muscle pain in his lower back. Durbin has felt pain for the past month, but told neither his wife, nor pitching coach Rich Dubee. Over that time, Durbin had been responsible for five runs, over eight and two-thirds innings, including a scoreless, three-inning appearance on Monday. It appears injury, in addition to regression, has affected Durbin's recent results. Durbin is expected to return immediately, when the DL stint ends.
Phillies' reliever J.C. Romero was placed on the 15-day DL, with a strained left forearm. Romero will be eligible to return on August 4th. He made both his wife, and Rich Dubee, aware of the injury in a timely manner. Between this injury setback, his fifty-game suspension, and the fan incident in Tampa, this has not been the most successful season for Romero.
The Phillies recalled IronPigs (AAA) reliever Tyler Walker, and starter Andrew Carpenter, to fill the bullpen holes. Carpenter is stretched out, so it appears he will work in long relief, with Chan Ho Park pitching in late innings/high leverage situations. Park has pitched extremely well as a reliever. He would have been a great free agent pickup, if he had been signed as a $1-1.5 million/year reliever.
Walker is still not a good pitcher, and will probably be designated for assignment again, on August 4th.
The moves leave Scott Eyre as the only southpaw in the bullpen. Minor league lefties Sergio Escalona and Jack Taschner were considered for recall, but Escalona has pitched poorly recently, and Taschner has pitched like Taschner, all season.
The Lehigh Valley IronPigs (AAA) recalled reliever Pat Overholt from Reading (AA), and demoted Sergio Escalona to Reading. Escalona had a 10.50 ERA in six July innings. BABIP was not kind to him, as he allowed nine hits, and a .333 OBA. The right-handed Overholt, who has pitched in two AAA games this season, had a 2.16 ERA in eight and one-third July innings with the R-Phils.
Kyle Kendrick had a AAA start pushed by a day, for reasons that were not announced. There has been speculation that Kendrick was involved in a trade for Nationals' OF Josh Willingham, which fell through. My theory is that he was involved in a trade that fell through, but Arizona D-Backs' northpaw Doug Davis was the Phillies' intended target.
Scott Mathieson continues his attempt to return to MLB, with the Clearwater Threshers (A). Mathieson has made three appearances for the Threshers, throwing four scoreless innings, with four strikeouts (three hits, one walk.) He could be a cost-effective competitor for a Phillies bullpen spot, in 2010.
The Roy Halladay Deal hasn't been officially consummated, and Halladay is expected to make the start for Toronto on Friday night. The probability of Halladay being traded has ranged between 0 and 100%, over the past few days. Numerous teams are, reportedly, involved in trade talks, and countless top minor league prospects have been mentioned. Toronto GM J.P. Ricciardi tried to impose an arbitrary, pre-trade deadline, deadline of July 28th, but that doesn't seem to have panned out.
The Phillies still appear to be among the frontrunners, and the names Kyle Drabek, J.A. Happ, Lou Marson, Michael Taylor, Jason Donald, and Dominic Brown have all been bandied about.
If Amaro could get Halladay for Happ, Marson, and Donald, he should do the deal in a millisecond. Halladay turns the Phillies from World Series contender, to World Series favorite.
Phillies' reliever Chad Durbin was placed on the 15-day DL, after experiencing muscle pain in his lower back. Durbin has felt pain for the past month, but told neither his wife, nor pitching coach Rich Dubee. Over that time, Durbin had been responsible for five runs, over eight and two-thirds innings, including a scoreless, three-inning appearance on Monday. It appears injury, in addition to regression, has affected Durbin's recent results. Durbin is expected to return immediately, when the DL stint ends.
Phillies' reliever J.C. Romero was placed on the 15-day DL, with a strained left forearm. Romero will be eligible to return on August 4th. He made both his wife, and Rich Dubee, aware of the injury in a timely manner. Between this injury setback, his fifty-game suspension, and the fan incident in Tampa, this has not been the most successful season for Romero.
The Phillies recalled IronPigs (AAA) reliever Tyler Walker, and starter Andrew Carpenter, to fill the bullpen holes. Carpenter is stretched out, so it appears he will work in long relief, with Chan Ho Park pitching in late innings/high leverage situations. Park has pitched extremely well as a reliever. He would have been a great free agent pickup, if he had been signed as a $1-1.5 million/year reliever.
Walker is still not a good pitcher, and will probably be designated for assignment again, on August 4th.
The moves leave Scott Eyre as the only southpaw in the bullpen. Minor league lefties Sergio Escalona and Jack Taschner were considered for recall, but Escalona has pitched poorly recently, and Taschner has pitched like Taschner, all season.
The Lehigh Valley IronPigs (AAA) recalled reliever Pat Overholt from Reading (AA), and demoted Sergio Escalona to Reading. Escalona had a 10.50 ERA in six July innings. BABIP was not kind to him, as he allowed nine hits, and a .333 OBA. The right-handed Overholt, who has pitched in two AAA games this season, had a 2.16 ERA in eight and one-third July innings with the R-Phils.
Kyle Kendrick had a AAA start pushed by a day, for reasons that were not announced. There has been speculation that Kendrick was involved in a trade for Nationals' OF Josh Willingham, which fell through. My theory is that he was involved in a trade that fell through, but Arizona D-Backs' northpaw Doug Davis was the Phillies' intended target.
Scott Mathieson continues his attempt to return to MLB, with the Clearwater Threshers (A). Mathieson has made three appearances for the Threshers, throwing four scoreless innings, with four strikeouts (three hits, one walk.) He could be a cost-effective competitor for a Phillies bullpen spot, in 2010.
Sunday, July 19, 2009
Not Innocuous
As a result of the postponement of Saturday night's game, the Phillies made some seemingly innocuous adjustments to their pitching probables for the week. The probables are, as follows:
Monday: Rodrigo Lopez
Tuesday: Joe Blanton (rained out on Saturday- threw only 24 pitches)
Wednesday: Jamie Moyer (five days rest)
Thursday: Cole Hamels (left Friday's game early, due to rain- threw 68 pitches- five days rest)
Friday: J.A. Happ (four days rest)
Saturday: Rodrigo Lopez (four days rest)
Sunday: Joe Blanton (four days rest)
There are a number of things we can deduce from these adjustments:
-Joe Blanton has been too effective, recently, for the Phillies to skip his start.
-The Phillies' upcoming, game-a-day, schedule was not conducive to skipping any starters (Moyer?) in the rotation.
-Despite Hamels' rain-shortened appearance, they did not want to bring the southpaw back early. They also chose to pitch Moyer on one extra day's rest, rather than starting Hamels on his regular day, and giving Moyer two extra days' rest. As a result, Hamels will not have to pitch in Wednesday's afternoon game, which is usually a good thing.
-The Phillies don't want Rodrigo Lopez to wait any longer to make his third Phillies start- they want to evaluate Lopez' MLB ability, before Pedro Martinez arrives on the scene to replace him.
-Slotting Lopez into the third slot in the rotation indicates that the Phils project Pedro Martinez as their third starter in the postseason. (Martinez will take Lopez' place in August.) Joe Blanton will be in the fourth spot during the playoffs. Jamie Moyer will watch the postseason from the stands, utilizing tickets graciously provided by the Phillies' organization.
-J.A. Happ continues pitching on the same day as Roy Halladay, who is, temporarily, still with Toronto. Happ will be included in The Halladay Deal, with each respective hurler being seamlessly inserted into their new club's rotation.
-Roy Halladay will be slotted as the #2 in the Phillies' rotation, as a result of #1 starter Cole Hamels' postseason pedigree.
-The Phillies have determined that Happ's strong results in 2009 are a mirage. The Phils have examined Happ's BABIP and LOB %, as well as various proprietary statistics that have not yet fallen into the public consciousness, in coming to this conclusion.
-As a result of the inclusion of J.A. Happ in The Halladay Deal, the Phillies will be able to keep northpaw prospect Kyle Drabek in their organization. Drabek's sub-zero FIP performance in 2014 will be in a Phillies' uniform. (The MLB Phillies, if that wasn't clear.)
Monday: Rodrigo Lopez
Tuesday: Joe Blanton (rained out on Saturday- threw only 24 pitches)
Wednesday: Jamie Moyer (five days rest)
Thursday: Cole Hamels (left Friday's game early, due to rain- threw 68 pitches- five days rest)
Friday: J.A. Happ (four days rest)
Saturday: Rodrigo Lopez (four days rest)
Sunday: Joe Blanton (four days rest)
There are a number of things we can deduce from these adjustments:
-Joe Blanton has been too effective, recently, for the Phillies to skip his start.
-The Phillies' upcoming, game-a-day, schedule was not conducive to skipping any starters (Moyer?) in the rotation.
-Despite Hamels' rain-shortened appearance, they did not want to bring the southpaw back early. They also chose to pitch Moyer on one extra day's rest, rather than starting Hamels on his regular day, and giving Moyer two extra days' rest. As a result, Hamels will not have to pitch in Wednesday's afternoon game, which is usually a good thing.
-The Phillies don't want Rodrigo Lopez to wait any longer to make his third Phillies start- they want to evaluate Lopez' MLB ability, before Pedro Martinez arrives on the scene to replace him.
-Slotting Lopez into the third slot in the rotation indicates that the Phils project Pedro Martinez as their third starter in the postseason. (Martinez will take Lopez' place in August.) Joe Blanton will be in the fourth spot during the playoffs. Jamie Moyer will watch the postseason from the stands, utilizing tickets graciously provided by the Phillies' organization.
-J.A. Happ continues pitching on the same day as Roy Halladay, who is, temporarily, still with Toronto. Happ will be included in The Halladay Deal, with each respective hurler being seamlessly inserted into their new club's rotation.
-Roy Halladay will be slotted as the #2 in the Phillies' rotation, as a result of #1 starter Cole Hamels' postseason pedigree.
-The Phillies have determined that Happ's strong results in 2009 are a mirage. The Phils have examined Happ's BABIP and LOB %, as well as various proprietary statistics that have not yet fallen into the public consciousness, in coming to this conclusion.
-As a result of the inclusion of J.A. Happ in The Halladay Deal, the Phillies will be able to keep northpaw prospect Kyle Drabek in their organization. Drabek's sub-zero FIP performance in 2014 will be in a Phillies' uniform. (The MLB Phillies, if that wasn't clear.)
Tuesday, July 14, 2009
Pedro Officially (Unofficially) a Phillie, All-Star Action
Multiple sources are reporting that free agent pitcher Pedro Martinez has agreed to terms with the Phillies, on a contract for the remainder of the 2009 season (including the playoffs, World Series, and post-Series parade).
Martinez will, reportedly, earn $1 million, plus a possible $1.5 million in incentives. A press conference will be held Wednesday. Martinez will report to the minors, for an immediate rehab assignment, likely lasting until the end of July (three starts?)
It's not clear where he will start his minor league assignment, at this point.
(Let me take this opportunity to recommend that he start in Reading (AA). I'd give him the ball this Sunday, at home against the Rock Cats, with R-Phils starter Mike Stutes taking over once Martinez hits his pitch limit. The Martinez/Stutes combo would follow Yohan Flande, Kyle Drabek, and Joe Savery, and precede Vance Worley in the rotation. After one or two starts with Reading, he could make one or two starts in Lehigh Valley (AAA), sharing Brian Mazone's spot in the rotation. Mazone, who has spent most of the season as a reliever, could replace Martinez in the fifth/sixth inning. This would, hopefully, minimize disruption to the starting pitchers currently at each level.)
The Phillies missed an opportunity by waiting until Wednesday for the official Martinez announcement. I'm guessing that Bud Selig and the MLB Overlords would have been all for this plan:
*********************************************************************************
(All-Star Game, St. Louis, Bottom of the 1st Inning)
(Cardinals' All-Star Albert Pujols strides to the plate, amidst raucous cheers.)
PA Announcer: May I have your attention, please. Philadelphia Phillies General Manager Ruben Amaro has a brief announcement.
(Crowd is startled, but there are few boos. Because: St. Louis.)
(Amaro exits the National League dugout, and walks, purposefully, to the mound. He is wearing a suit, carrying a Phillies cap in his left hand, and a microphone in his right. American League starting pitcher Roy Halladay steps off the rubber, from where Amaro addresses the crowd.)
Amaro: Thank you. The Philadelphia Phillies would like to announce that Pedro Martinez has agreed to terms with the organization. Martinez will join the team for the remainder of the season, and he will share a float with Jimmy Rollins, in the World Championship parade.
(There are scattered cheers from the crowd, with the only boos coming from non-St. Louis fans. Albert Pujols, now in the on-deck circle, applauds.)
Amaro: Just one more quick thing. The Phillies are also pleased to announce the acquisition of starting pitcher Roy Halladay.
(Roy Halladay removes his Blue Jays uniform top, revealing a Phillies uniform underneath. Amaro hands him the Phillies hat. Amaro and Halladay leave the mound, and head to the NL dugout, where Halladay is greeted by some of his new Phillies teammates.)
Amaro (to Jayson Werth): Jayson, we should talk...
Shane Victorino (to Halladay): (shows Halladay his WS ring) We're going to get another one of these. No questions asked.
**********************************************************************************
The AAA All-Star Game will take place Wednesday night, at 10pm Eastern time.
The game will be aired, live, on ESPN2. Andrew Carpenter, Mike Cervenak, and Andy Tracy will represent the Lehigh Valley IronPigs. Joe Morgan will not represent ESPN2 on this broadcast, which is more than reason enough to tune in.
The AA All-Star Game will take place Wednesday night, at 7pm Eastern time.
This is the All-Star Game I want to see. Naturally, it does not appear to be televised. (Hopefully, there will be a broadcast somewhere on the internets.) The Reading Phillies will be represented by Vance Worley, Joe Savery, Neil Sellers, Michael Taylor, and Quintin Berry. (Kyle Drabek has only pitched 46.2 innings at AA (61.2 in A) this season, or else he would probably be on the team.)
The Clearwater Threshers (A) play their next game Wednesday night, against the Brevard County Manatees. The First Place/Juggernaut Sea Cows?! Again?! Who makes this schedule?
Martinez will, reportedly, earn $1 million, plus a possible $1.5 million in incentives. A press conference will be held Wednesday. Martinez will report to the minors, for an immediate rehab assignment, likely lasting until the end of July (three starts?)
It's not clear where he will start his minor league assignment, at this point.
(Let me take this opportunity to recommend that he start in Reading (AA). I'd give him the ball this Sunday, at home against the Rock Cats, with R-Phils starter Mike Stutes taking over once Martinez hits his pitch limit. The Martinez/Stutes combo would follow Yohan Flande, Kyle Drabek, and Joe Savery, and precede Vance Worley in the rotation. After one or two starts with Reading, he could make one or two starts in Lehigh Valley (AAA), sharing Brian Mazone's spot in the rotation. Mazone, who has spent most of the season as a reliever, could replace Martinez in the fifth/sixth inning. This would, hopefully, minimize disruption to the starting pitchers currently at each level.)
The Phillies missed an opportunity by waiting until Wednesday for the official Martinez announcement. I'm guessing that Bud Selig and the MLB Overlords would have been all for this plan:
*********************************************************************************
(All-Star Game, St. Louis, Bottom of the 1st Inning)
(Cardinals' All-Star Albert Pujols strides to the plate, amidst raucous cheers.)
PA Announcer: May I have your attention, please. Philadelphia Phillies General Manager Ruben Amaro has a brief announcement.
(Crowd is startled, but there are few boos. Because: St. Louis.)
(Amaro exits the National League dugout, and walks, purposefully, to the mound. He is wearing a suit, carrying a Phillies cap in his left hand, and a microphone in his right. American League starting pitcher Roy Halladay steps off the rubber, from where Amaro addresses the crowd.)
Amaro: Thank you. The Philadelphia Phillies would like to announce that Pedro Martinez has agreed to terms with the organization. Martinez will join the team for the remainder of the season, and he will share a float with Jimmy Rollins, in the World Championship parade.
(There are scattered cheers from the crowd, with the only boos coming from non-St. Louis fans. Albert Pujols, now in the on-deck circle, applauds.)
Amaro: Just one more quick thing. The Phillies are also pleased to announce the acquisition of starting pitcher Roy Halladay.
(Roy Halladay removes his Blue Jays uniform top, revealing a Phillies uniform underneath. Amaro hands him the Phillies hat. Amaro and Halladay leave the mound, and head to the NL dugout, where Halladay is greeted by some of his new Phillies teammates.)
Amaro (to Jayson Werth): Jayson, we should talk...
Shane Victorino (to Halladay): (shows Halladay his WS ring) We're going to get another one of these. No questions asked.
**********************************************************************************
The AAA All-Star Game will take place Wednesday night, at 10pm Eastern time.
The game will be aired, live, on ESPN2. Andrew Carpenter, Mike Cervenak, and Andy Tracy will represent the Lehigh Valley IronPigs. Joe Morgan will not represent ESPN2 on this broadcast, which is more than reason enough to tune in.
The AA All-Star Game will take place Wednesday night, at 7pm Eastern time.
This is the All-Star Game I want to see. Naturally, it does not appear to be televised. (Hopefully, there will be a broadcast somewhere on the internets.) The Reading Phillies will be represented by Vance Worley, Joe Savery, Neil Sellers, Michael Taylor, and Quintin Berry. (Kyle Drabek has only pitched 46.2 innings at AA (61.2 in A) this season, or else he would probably be on the team.)
The Clearwater Threshers (A) play their next game Wednesday night, against the Brevard County Manatees. The First Place/Juggernaut Sea Cows?! Again?! Who makes this schedule?
Monday, July 13, 2009
Pedro, Halladay, and All-Star Updates
Pedro Martinez is, reportedly, headed to Philadelphia, for a physical on Tuesday. It looks like this is getting very close.
The keys to this acquisition:
-the only costs associated with this deal are salary costs, no players will be lost as a result
-the salary costs are low enough that the Phillies will still be fiscally-able to make additional salary-increasing personnel moves (reports indicate that Martinez is concerned more about playing for a contender, than salary, and that he will only be paid between $1 and $2 million)
-the expectations for Martinez are: to be a back-of-the-rotation arm, an upgrade over Rodrigo Lopez, and a stopgap to buy additional minor league development time for prospects
-the Phillies need to treat Martinez as a sunk cost: if he doesn't perform on the field and/or has an adverse effect on the clubhouse, Martinez should be invited to hit the bricks, in a timely manner
As long as the Phillies don't keep giving starts to an ineffective Martinez, as they did to Chan Ho Park, this could be a very good move.
Martinez, likely, wouldn't pitch for the Phils before August, as he would need a few minor league starts to build up arm strength.
Roy Halladay estimates that there is a 50% chance that he is traded. Not so sure about the accuracy of that probability, but the Phillies would certainly be among the frontrunners for the ace's services. The Phils have the prospects to trade, the money to pay Halladay (at least for the remainder of his current contract, through 2010), are a playoff contender, and are not in the American League. If Halladay gets dealt this season, it wouldn't be surprising to see him go to Philly.
The possibility of including J.A. Happ in a prospective Halladay deal is a polarizing issue throughout the Phillies' blogosphere.
Happ has been outstanding in 2009, with a 6-0 record, and a 2.90 ERA. The Phillies would not be in 1st place right now, if it wasn't for his efforts. If Happ had started the season in the rotation, as many believed he should have, the Phillies' division lead would likely be larger than four games. Happ is young (26.75), left-handed, and cost-controlled for the immediate future.
Happ has a .242 BABIP, a 85.9% LOB%, and a 4.51 FIP in 2009. These numbers all point very strongly towards possible regression in the (very?) immediate future. He projects as a back-of-the-rotation starter, despite his front-of-the-rotation results in 2009.
Happ seems bound to regress, doesn't quite have the upside of some of the other Phillies' arms (Kyle Drabek, Carlos Carrasco, Jason Knapp), and might be at the height of his trade value right now. If the Phillies can get a Halladay, they should definitely consider trading Happ, especially if his inclusion in a deal allows them to hold on to one of their higher-upside arms.
Charlie Manuel has announced his starting lineup for the All-Star game. It includes 2B Chase Utley batting second, LF Raul Ibanez batting fifth, and CF Shane Victorino in the seventh spot.
Considering that the AL has a northpaw on the mound (Roy Halladay, future Phillie?), it's surprising that Manuel doesn't have left-handed batters Greg Dobbs and Paul Bako in the starting lineup.
I'll be rooting for an NL victory, so that the Phillies have four home games in the World Series (against Detroit). But I won't mind too much if the Phillies' representatives play sparingly, especially the recently-disabled Ibanez, as we don't need any of them sustaining injuries in an exhibition game.
Ryan Howard will be participating in the Home Run Derby.
In one of the infinite parallel universes, the Home Run Derby includes the Phillies' Russell Branyan (the starting DH for the NL) and Matt Stairs (one of the "Wild Card" participants).
But watching Ryan Howard hit bombs is always fun. (Though I'll have that broadcast on mute, in order to listen to the Clearwater Threshers-Daytona Cubs game.)
The keys to this acquisition:
-the only costs associated with this deal are salary costs, no players will be lost as a result
-the salary costs are low enough that the Phillies will still be fiscally-able to make additional salary-increasing personnel moves (reports indicate that Martinez is concerned more about playing for a contender, than salary, and that he will only be paid between $1 and $2 million)
-the expectations for Martinez are: to be a back-of-the-rotation arm, an upgrade over Rodrigo Lopez, and a stopgap to buy additional minor league development time for prospects
-the Phillies need to treat Martinez as a sunk cost: if he doesn't perform on the field and/or has an adverse effect on the clubhouse, Martinez should be invited to hit the bricks, in a timely manner
As long as the Phillies don't keep giving starts to an ineffective Martinez, as they did to Chan Ho Park, this could be a very good move.
Martinez, likely, wouldn't pitch for the Phils before August, as he would need a few minor league starts to build up arm strength.
Roy Halladay estimates that there is a 50% chance that he is traded. Not so sure about the accuracy of that probability, but the Phillies would certainly be among the frontrunners for the ace's services. The Phils have the prospects to trade, the money to pay Halladay (at least for the remainder of his current contract, through 2010), are a playoff contender, and are not in the American League. If Halladay gets dealt this season, it wouldn't be surprising to see him go to Philly.
The possibility of including J.A. Happ in a prospective Halladay deal is a polarizing issue throughout the Phillies' blogosphere.
Happ has been outstanding in 2009, with a 6-0 record, and a 2.90 ERA. The Phillies would not be in 1st place right now, if it wasn't for his efforts. If Happ had started the season in the rotation, as many believed he should have, the Phillies' division lead would likely be larger than four games. Happ is young (26.75), left-handed, and cost-controlled for the immediate future.
Happ has a .242 BABIP, a 85.9% LOB%, and a 4.51 FIP in 2009. These numbers all point very strongly towards possible regression in the (very?) immediate future. He projects as a back-of-the-rotation starter, despite his front-of-the-rotation results in 2009.
Happ seems bound to regress, doesn't quite have the upside of some of the other Phillies' arms (Kyle Drabek, Carlos Carrasco, Jason Knapp), and might be at the height of his trade value right now. If the Phillies can get a Halladay, they should definitely consider trading Happ, especially if his inclusion in a deal allows them to hold on to one of their higher-upside arms.
Charlie Manuel has announced his starting lineup for the All-Star game. It includes 2B Chase Utley batting second, LF Raul Ibanez batting fifth, and CF Shane Victorino in the seventh spot.
Considering that the AL has a northpaw on the mound (Roy Halladay, future Phillie?), it's surprising that Manuel doesn't have left-handed batters Greg Dobbs and Paul Bako in the starting lineup.
I'll be rooting for an NL victory, so that the Phillies have four home games in the World Series (against Detroit). But I won't mind too much if the Phillies' representatives play sparingly, especially the recently-disabled Ibanez, as we don't need any of them sustaining injuries in an exhibition game.
Ryan Howard will be participating in the Home Run Derby.
In one of the infinite parallel universes, the Home Run Derby includes the Phillies' Russell Branyan (the starting DH for the NL) and Matt Stairs (one of the "Wild Card" participants).
But watching Ryan Howard hit bombs is always fun. (Though I'll have that broadcast on mute, in order to listen to the Clearwater Threshers-Daytona Cubs game.)
Thursday, July 9, 2009
Shane Headed to St. Louis, Pedro to Philly?
The Phillies just cannot be confined to the usual edition of Bunts and Balks today.
Shane Victorino wins the Final Vote, and will be going to the All-Star Game.
Bran-Torino was a success, and Victorino and Detroit's Brandon Inge will both be in St. Louis. Phillies' fans everywhere really stepped up in the voting, and Victorino was a Hawaiian Highlight Machine this week. Now we just need Jayson Werth to replace an injured Carlos Beltran, and we can have an all-Phillies outfield...
Pedro Martinez is, reportedly, on his way to Philadelphia for a physical, the final step before a contract agreement is announced. Martinez would, likely, be paid a pro-rated $4-5 million ($2-$2.5 million for the second half). Martinez was throwing low 90's heat, and had good command of all his pitches, in a simulated game earlier this week. The signing will cost the Phillies some salary, but no prospects, and is a reasonable gamble for a back-of-the-rotation starter. At worst, Martinez will buy some development time for Andrew Carpenter and Carlos Carrasco. At best, he could be the #2 starter the Phillies need.
Martinez would, probably, make two or three starts for the Lehigh Valley IronPigs (AAA), before his return to MLB.
The Phillies appear to be one of the frontrunners in the race to acquire Roy Halladay. Signing Pedro Martinez might give the Phils the flexibility to trade J.A. Happ, as part of the Halladay package. Happ is young, MLB-ready, and cost-controlled, which would be a good fit for the Jays. Happ, and some high profile prospects (Carrasco and Marson?), plus the salary relief a Halladay trade would provide the Jays, may be enough to get this deal done. A Halladay-Hamels-Blanton-Martinez-Moyer rotation could enable the Phils to run away from the rest of the division. Halladay is signed through the 2010 season, and has a no-trade clause which he would, hopefully, waive to join the WFCs.
Rodrigo Lopez has "right shoulder inflammation", but isn't expecting to miss a start. When the Phillies moved J.A. Happ up a day in the rotation two weeks ago, they ensured that Lopez' spot in the rotation would come up only twice before the All-Star break. Lopez' next turn won't come until July 20th. If Martinez is signed, Lopez might not have two many more starts after that one, at least for the Phillies...
Raul Ibanez is rehabbing for Lehigh Valley on Thursday, and could be activated this weekend. With the Pittsburgh Pirates scheduled to start northpaws on Saturday and Sunday, it seems activating Ibanez in time for Saturday's game could be the plan. Who's spot would he take? Expect to see John Mayberry optioned back to Lehigh Valley, to play every day. (But the removal of a catcher from the roster is an unlikely possibility.) Of course, an injury could cloud this decision before Saturday.
Shane Victorino wins the Final Vote, and will be going to the All-Star Game.
Bran-Torino was a success, and Victorino and Detroit's Brandon Inge will both be in St. Louis. Phillies' fans everywhere really stepped up in the voting, and Victorino was a Hawaiian Highlight Machine this week. Now we just need Jayson Werth to replace an injured Carlos Beltran, and we can have an all-Phillies outfield...
Pedro Martinez is, reportedly, on his way to Philadelphia for a physical, the final step before a contract agreement is announced. Martinez would, likely, be paid a pro-rated $4-5 million ($2-$2.5 million for the second half). Martinez was throwing low 90's heat, and had good command of all his pitches, in a simulated game earlier this week. The signing will cost the Phillies some salary, but no prospects, and is a reasonable gamble for a back-of-the-rotation starter. At worst, Martinez will buy some development time for Andrew Carpenter and Carlos Carrasco. At best, he could be the #2 starter the Phillies need.
Martinez would, probably, make two or three starts for the Lehigh Valley IronPigs (AAA), before his return to MLB.
The Phillies appear to be one of the frontrunners in the race to acquire Roy Halladay. Signing Pedro Martinez might give the Phils the flexibility to trade J.A. Happ, as part of the Halladay package. Happ is young, MLB-ready, and cost-controlled, which would be a good fit for the Jays. Happ, and some high profile prospects (Carrasco and Marson?), plus the salary relief a Halladay trade would provide the Jays, may be enough to get this deal done. A Halladay-Hamels-Blanton-Martinez-Moyer rotation could enable the Phils to run away from the rest of the division. Halladay is signed through the 2010 season, and has a no-trade clause which he would, hopefully, waive to join the WFCs.
Rodrigo Lopez has "right shoulder inflammation", but isn't expecting to miss a start. When the Phillies moved J.A. Happ up a day in the rotation two weeks ago, they ensured that Lopez' spot in the rotation would come up only twice before the All-Star break. Lopez' next turn won't come until July 20th. If Martinez is signed, Lopez might not have two many more starts after that one, at least for the Phillies...
Raul Ibanez is rehabbing for Lehigh Valley on Thursday, and could be activated this weekend. With the Pittsburgh Pirates scheduled to start northpaws on Saturday and Sunday, it seems activating Ibanez in time for Saturday's game could be the plan. Who's spot would he take? Expect to see John Mayberry optioned back to Lehigh Valley, to play every day. (But the removal of a catcher from the roster is an unlikely possibility.) Of course, an injury could cloud this decision before Saturday.
Tuesday, July 7, 2009
Bunts and Balks (7/6)
The Toronto Blue Jays are now, reportedly, "open to offers" for ace Roy Halladay. Halladay would be an excellent #3 starter, behind J.A. Happ and Cole Hamels, making the Phils even more formidable in the playoffs. With the possible exceptions of Kyle Drabek and Michael Taylor, the Phillies should consider dealing any of their prospects. Carlos Carrasco? Andrew Carpenter? Julian Sampson? Lou Marson? Dominic Brown? Michael Taylor? Yohan Flande? Jack Taschner? Steve Susdorf? Vance Worley? The Phillies have the available prospects to get this done.
(Prediction: Halladay goes to the Yankees, who eat the salary of overpaid/underperforming Jays' outfielder Vernon Wells, to get the deal done. Hopefully, the Jays won't want to trade Halladay within their own division/league...)
Jack is back! Jack Taschner was optioned to Lehigh Valley (AAA), after the DFA Plan failed to expunge him from the organization. Taschner is a sunk cost at this point, might as well have him in AAA, eating an occasional partial inning. If the parent club needs a pitcher to appear once a month, with negligible effectiveness, Taschner would be the top recall option. (Had hoped to retire the "Jack Taschner" tag, but, alas, that day has not yet come.)
Raul Ibanez (finally) made a rehab start, for Reading (AA). The All-Star outfielder batted three times, going 0 for 2, with a walk. His injured groin is showing improvement, and he expects to play a few games with Lehigh Valley, before a possible weekend return for the P-Phils.
The Lehigh Valley IronPigs were trounced by the Syracuse SkyChiefs, 9-3, on Monday. The game wasn't really that close- the FeHogs scored two of their runs in garbage time (ninth inning, trailing by eight runs). LV had eleven hits, but only three were for extra bases (all doubles), and left ten men on base. Starter Brian Mazone was removed after fifty-three pitches, allowing three runs (one earned), in two and two-thirds mediocre innings.
The Reading Phillies (AA) wasted a strong performance by untouchable prospect Kyle Drabek, in a 4-3 loss to the Connecticut Defenders. Drabek permitted two runs in seven innings (six hits, one walk/six strikeouts), leaving with the score tied at two. Deposed starter Tyson Brummett, who lost his rotation spot to Yohan Flande, gave up two runs in the eighth, and took the loss. Pitching in relief has not been working out for Brummett (5.33 relief innings, 5 earned runs allowed.) Brian Stavisky went 3 for 4, accumulating half of the R-Phils' hits. Connecticut is now a ridiculous 30-12 on the road.
The Clearwater Threshers (A) lost to the Lakeland Flying Tigers, 12-0. Definitely one of the Flying Tigers' most successful missions. Drew Naylor took the loss, in a six-inning/five-run outing. Naylor was knocked around for nine hits and a walk (three strikeouts).
(Prediction: Halladay goes to the Yankees, who eat the salary of overpaid/underperforming Jays' outfielder Vernon Wells, to get the deal done. Hopefully, the Jays won't want to trade Halladay within their own division/league...)
Jack is back! Jack Taschner was optioned to Lehigh Valley (AAA), after the DFA Plan failed to expunge him from the organization. Taschner is a sunk cost at this point, might as well have him in AAA, eating an occasional partial inning. If the parent club needs a pitcher to appear once a month, with negligible effectiveness, Taschner would be the top recall option. (Had hoped to retire the "Jack Taschner" tag, but, alas, that day has not yet come.)
Raul Ibanez (finally) made a rehab start, for Reading (AA). The All-Star outfielder batted three times, going 0 for 2, with a walk. His injured groin is showing improvement, and he expects to play a few games with Lehigh Valley, before a possible weekend return for the P-Phils.
The Lehigh Valley IronPigs were trounced by the Syracuse SkyChiefs, 9-3, on Monday. The game wasn't really that close- the FeHogs scored two of their runs in garbage time (ninth inning, trailing by eight runs). LV had eleven hits, but only three were for extra bases (all doubles), and left ten men on base. Starter Brian Mazone was removed after fifty-three pitches, allowing three runs (one earned), in two and two-thirds mediocre innings.
The Reading Phillies (AA) wasted a strong performance by untouchable prospect Kyle Drabek, in a 4-3 loss to the Connecticut Defenders. Drabek permitted two runs in seven innings (six hits, one walk/six strikeouts), leaving with the score tied at two. Deposed starter Tyson Brummett, who lost his rotation spot to Yohan Flande, gave up two runs in the eighth, and took the loss. Pitching in relief has not been working out for Brummett (5.33 relief innings, 5 earned runs allowed.) Brian Stavisky went 3 for 4, accumulating half of the R-Phils' hits. Connecticut is now a ridiculous 30-12 on the road.
The Clearwater Threshers (A) lost to the Lakeland Flying Tigers, 12-0. Definitely one of the Flying Tigers' most successful missions. Drew Naylor took the loss, in a six-inning/five-run outing. Naylor was knocked around for nine hits and a walk (three strikeouts).
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