Wednesday, April 8, 2009
Great Moments in Win Probability
As the Atlanta bullpen prepared to close out the series sweep, disappointed fans began to exit CBP. The internets were also rife with frustrated Phillies fans. This replacement level blogger was preparing to write that even the best teams will have three-game segments over the long season in which they lose all three games. (The 2008 Phillies had eleven such three-game segments.)
After Braves reliever Eric O'Flaherty retired Shane Victorino to start the 7th, Atlanta began to experience some bullpen issues. Single. HBP. Pitching change. BB. Single. Single. BB. Pitching change. BB. BB. Pitching change. Single. BB. Groundout. Ten consecutive Phillies reached base, turning a 10-3 deficit into an 11-10 lead. The probability of a Phillies win had increased from .7% to 79.2%. After Ryan Madson retired the Braves in order in the 8th, the Phillies picked up an insurance run. Phillies closer Brad Lidge permitted a solo homer in the 9th, but picked up the save in the Phillies' first 2009 win. Phillies starter Joe Blanton was off the hook for his four inning, seven earned run, -.470 WPA performance, thanks to Chase Utley (2 for 4, .230 WPA), Raul Ibanez (2 for 3, 2 BB, 1 HR, .208 WPA), and a disastrous showing by the Braves relief corps.
The memorable afternoon had begun with the distribution of the World Series rings. The rings made their way to the field in a Citizens Bank van, with a police motorcycle escort. Each of the 2008 Phillies was given, in words spoken by Harry the K, a "priceless artifact that cannot be purchased, only earned." The 3.84 karat rings were a "gleaming testimony to the Phillies' remarkable achievements of last Fall." Geoff Jenkins and Pat Burrell were in attendance, with Burrell appearing less than five hours before his game in Boston tonight. Inexplicably, Adam Eaton also appeared, and was showered with raucous boos. (Eaton's 5.97 FIP of 2007, and 5.29 FIP of 2008 were not forgotten.) Sadly, So Taguchi (Iowa Cubs) and Rudy Seanez (Stone Cold Creamery) were unable to attend, due to other obligations. The Game Five lineup was introduced, in reverse order, to receive their "priceless artifacts", as the capacity crowd exploded. It was fortunate that Burrell was able to attend, as it wouldn't have been the same without him. Eaton, though, really should have stayed in Baltimore.
The Phillies travel to Colorado, where Cole Hamels will make his 2009 debut Friday afternoon. Hamels faces Jason Marquis (4.61 FIP in 2008), as the Phils attempt to even their record. The day off should be spent in reflection of a truly memorable day in the Phillies' history, as well as in the history of Win Probability. It is suggested that you begin your reflection with the timeless and elegant beauty displayed here.
Thursday, July 10, 2008
Top 5 Reasons to Vote for Pat

5. Burrell is 4th in the NL in OPS, including 1st among OF.
4. Throughout much of his impressive career, he strode to the plate to the sounds of Dio.
3. Chase Utley says we should.
2. Despite hitting at least 20 HR in each of the past EIGHT seasons, Burrell has never been an All-Star. Cesar Izturis has been an All-Star, for goodness sakes!
1. Eric Bruntlett will receive a $25,000 bonus, when he accompanies Burrell to the All-Star game as his pinch-runner/defensive replacement.
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
The Santana Era Ends...
(Spoiler alert: The following post was originally written on January 29,2014 and will contain spoilers if read prior to that date.)I'll admit it. When the New York Mets acquired Johan Santana from the Minnesota Twins, on this day six years ago, I wasn't exactly pleased. There was some destruction of personal property. The best LHP in baseball traded to the Phillies' top divisional rival for a package of prospects? This did not bode well for Philly's LH-heavy lineup. Phillies GM Pat Gillick's recent signing of .288 OBP bat Pedro Feliz was all but forgotten, as the Mets were lauded for their tactical brilliance. The Phillies' streak of consecutive division championships seemed likely to end at one.
I don't think I was ever so glad to be so horribly wrong. (Except for maybe when I gave up on Adam Eaton, after he underperfomed in 2007. Who knows what the Phillies would have done without their #2 starter in 2008? And '09, '10, '11...) Of course, as we all remember, the Phillies' didn't win the division in '08. (So, I guess I wasn't wrong about the Phillies' divisional streak ending at one.) They were lucky to even make the playoffs as the Wild Card. If Pat Burrell doesn't make The Throw in the one-game playoff at Wrigley, they wouldn't have even made it that far. (I wasn't the only one flashing back to Greg Luzinski, when Manuel didn't put Taguchi in LF to start the bottom of the 9th, as he had done all season. Funny how it's not the 463 career HRs we remember Burrell for, it's when he threw Theriot out at the plate to put the Phillies in the 2008 playoffs.)
The Phillies got past LA in the NLDS, but after their regular season struggles against the Mets, only the most optimistic Phillies fans thought they had a chance in the NLCS. After Santana put New York up 3-1 with his Game 4 shutout (his 2nd win of the series, and 6th of the season against the Phillies), the Phillies' chances had diminished even further. But Eaton and Myers pitched gems to send the series to a Hamels-Santana Game 7. The seventh game was scoreless, until Dobbs homered on Santana's 157th pitch, and Myers (on zero days rest!) closed out the Mets in the bottom of 12th. After the grueling Mets' series, the Phillies' six-game World Series win over Boston was almost anti-climactic. The Mets' offseason was spent second-guessing the overuse of their $23 million ace.
Santana and the Phillies have been inextricably linked ever since that fateful Game 7. Santana was haunted by arm problems for the rest of his career, undergoing Tommy John surgery in June of 2009. He was never the same pitcher. Deolis Guerra, traded by New York in the ill-fated Santana deal, went on to win two AL Cy Young Awards. The Phillies went on to enjoy the most successful era in their history. Or in any professional sports franchise's history, for that matter.
Johan Santana officially announced his retirement today. It was not a surprise, merely a pre-spring training roster machination. As has always seemed to be the case, Santana was overshadowed by the Phillies. The unveiling of the Pedro Feliz statue (at the top of the 72 steps at the Philadelphia Museum of Art) has brought the full attention of the sports world to Philly. Sir Charles of Fuqua, the greatest of Phillies' managers, and President McCain will both be present at the unveiling. But, even though the end of his career has passed almost unnoticed, Santana's role in the illustrious history of the Philadelphia Phillies organization will never be forgotten.
Saturday, November 17, 2007
Phils Swept out of Postseason
The Phillies had a great season, overcoming a horrific start to win a Division Championship. They saved countless lives with their tarp skills. They killed the playoff hopes of the New York Mets by beating them, approximately, forty-three games in a row. They had the best stolen base percentage in the history of stolen bases. They sent player-after-player to the disabled list, yet they still managed to win 89 games.Their individual perfomances were impressive. Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins had MVP-type seasons. Ryan Howard missed a month, but still hit 47 homers. Pat Burrell had an incredible second half, Aaron Rowand had two incredible halves. A late-season surge propelled Abe Nunez' OPS to the .600 mark. On the pitching side, Brett Myers went from Opening Day starter to closer, converting 21 of 24 save opportunities. Cole Hamels was 15-5, with a 3.39 ERA. He would have approached 20 wins, and Cy Young consideration, if he had made a few more starts. Kyle Kendrick came from nowhere (i.e. Reading) to win 10 games. Jon Lieber, despite appearing in only 14 games, consumed more donuts than any other NL starting pitcher. Antonio Alfonseca led the league in fingers, and Adam Eaton did a splendid job covering the pitcher's mound with the tarp during that storm in Colorado.
The season-ending postseason sweep at the hands of the Colorado Rockies was frustrating, if only because things could have been so different. Should have been so different. If Cole Hamels had dressed appropriately for Game 1, or if Kyle Kendrick had stayed in Game 2, or if Jayson Werth had caught that ball in Game 3, the Phillies likely would have won at least one of those three games. With the Rockies' Mark Redman and his 7.57 ERA ready for the Game 4 start, and the Phillies' Cole Hamels slated for the Game 5 start, the Phillies could have been preparing for the NLCS right now.
After so many years in which the "if's" kept the Phillies out of the playoffs, I guess it's an improvement that the if's relate to postseason failure this time. But, after the fourteen year wait, it would have been nice to win at least one of the games. The Phillies have a strong nucleus returning for 2008, so a return to the postseason is very possible. While the defeat at the hands of the Rockies stings right now, there is cause for optimism. It won't be a fourteen year wait until the next playoff game. Not with Jimmy, Chase, Cole, Pat, and Ryan in the lineup.
Phillies Lose Game 1 to Rockies
"Did I promise you a sky, where rain would never fall?"-THRESHOLD, "Pilot in the Sky of Dreams"
A string of perfect innings from Ace Cole Hamels. Home runs from Aaron Rowand and Pat Burrell. A scoreless ninth inning from closer Brett Myers. A wild CBP crowd, as the Phillies hosted their first playoff game, since Hamels was a Little Leaguer. It should have been the formula for the Phillies' 90th win. But some other pesky variables got in the way.
Rockies starter Jeff Francis was superb, allowing only the two (solo) home runs. He shut down Phillies' sluggers Chase Utley and Ryan Howard, who combined for seven strikeouts (Utley had four of them, on 13 pitches!). Hamels allowed three runs in the 2nd inning, when he was haunted by a poor fashion choice (LONG sleeves, Colbert Michael?), and sweated through three (!) walks, a triple, and a single, while throwing forty energy-sapping pitches. The rest of the game didn't feature too much offense, as both teams struggled with the shadows caused by the mid-afternoon start. (Thanks, TBS!) Rockies closer Manny Corpas shut out the Phillies in the bottom of the ninth, and the Phillies now trail the best-of-five series, 1-0.
I guess I thought the Phils would cruise through the NL playoffs, after their impressive qualifying run. (Of course, the Rockies are even hotter, having now won 15 of 16 games.) It's going to be a little tougher. It's going to take TWELVE playoff games to bring the World Series Championship back to Philly.
Playoff win #1 comes today, as Phillies rookie Kyle Kendrick opposes Rockies rookie Franklin Morales. TBS/NESN announcer Don Orsillo had never heard of either of these guys, until he had me prep him for the series on Tuesday. The Phillies just need to keep things close until the bottom of the 7th inning, when they unveil their secret weapon. (No, they will NOT be using Abe Nunez as a pinch-hitter, I am referring to a different secret weapon.) Peter Tork, the fourth most popular Monkee, will be perfoming during the 7th inning stretch. Tork performed during the Boston Red Sox Fan Rally on Monday, and look where the Sox are today. Yep, I'm a (Phillies) Believer!
Phillies Overcome Blue Glove to Smash Rockies
That's the kind of game PLAYOFF teams win, my dear blog reader(s). Trailing 3-1 in the bottom of the sixth, after six mediocre innings from mediocre starter Kyle Lohse, Ryan Howard hits his 38th homer to cut the deficit to 3-2. Phillies "Manager" Charles Fuqua Manuel attempts to blow the game by bringing in Jose Mesa. Blue Glove walks the first batter, gives up a two-run blast to the second, and is pulled from the game (ERA now at 7.77). Why didn't Charlie bring in J.C. Romero to start the inning, in what was a one-run game? Good fucking question. (Also, what was up with the radar guns tonight? No way was Jimenez throwing 101 MPH for Colorado. I thought they were supposed to decrease the speeds for the opposing pitchers.)But, with two on and two out in the bottom of the frame, with the Phillies still trailing 5-2, the Heroic Patrick Brian Burrell strode to the plate. Whereupon he proceeded to strike a game-tying home run (28th of the season). THAT is why Mr. Burrell is the NL's second-half MVP. Well, that and the 1.103 2nd half OPS. (1.103!!) Tom Gordon and Brett Myers (4th win) combined for three scoreless innings, and Ryan Howard had the game-winning double in the bottom of the 10th. Just the way Charles Fuqua drew it up. An impressive win by the Phils, who are now only a game and a half out of the Wild Card lead. I can't wait to see some Phillies Playoff Baseball! With Blue Glove watching the games on TV, just like me!
Adam Eaton, the Phillies' $24.5 million fifth starter, gets the nod in game two of the Rockies series Tuesday night. Eaton's 6.28 ERA is only slightly higher than the 6.23 ERA of Rockies starter Franklin Morales. I like the Phillies' chances at extending their winning streak to four games. This post would be longer, but I have to go REGISTER FOR MY PHILLIES PLAYOFF TICKETS!
Phillies Complete Sweep of Mets

(originally posted 8/31/07)
Carlos Ruiz rounded second base, attempting to stretch what would have been an easy stand-up double into a three-base hit. Despite the fact that Ruiz runs well for a catcher, the choice seemed ill-advised, as Mets SS Jose Reyes gathered the throw from the outfield in and fired to third. The throw would have gotten Ruiz, but it hit him, allowing him to make it safely to the base. When push came to shove on Thursday, the Phillies made the plays, and the Mets failed to execute. The Mets were dealt a demoralizing loss and the Phillies had, possibly, the most incredible win in my Phillies-watching history. The Phillies' divisional deficit was reduced to a mere two games with the 11-10 walkoff victory.
After having won the first three games of the series, one by blowout, and two in miraculous fashion, it seemed unlikely that the Phillies could top the magic of the previous three nights. With Mets ace Orlando Hernandez on the mound, bringing his 3.07 ERA and sub-.200 opponent's batting average into Citizens Bank Park, the Phillies should have had their work cut out for them. But, thanks to two-run homers from Ryan Howard (36) and Pat Burrell (23), the Phils knocked Hernandez out of the game early, and jumped to a 5-0 lead. But the Mets came right back, with three runs off Phillies starter Kyle Lohse, and two more off reliever Geoff Geary in the fifth. The Phillies countered immediately, scoring another three runs in the bottom of the inning, and taking the 8-5 lead into the 8th inning.
But the Mets pounced on Phillies reliever Antonio Alfonseca in the 8th. Alfonseca faced five batters in the frame, none of whom he managed to retire. He allowed two hits and three walks, and was charged with four of the five runs scored by the Mets that inning. (The other was charged to J. C. Romero who was removed after facing only two batters, one of whom he walked.) The Mets lead 10-8, going into the bottom of the 8th, and closer Billy Wagner (29 saves, 2.05 ERA) was ready to enter for an unusual (for him) two-inning save. Something he hadn't been asked to do for eight years. But he hadn't pitched for five days, so he was well-rested.
What followed was yet another comeback. Something that has become a trademark of this team. The comeback included another homer by Pat Burrell (24) against his nemesis, Billy the Rat, in the 8th. Tom Gordon held the Mets scoreless in the top of the 9th, and the score was 10-8 Mets, to begin the 9th. I have watched this inning again and again, and it is already one of my favorite Phillies memories. EVER. Jayson Werth (.315 batting average!) singled, and then stole second. AND THEN THIRD! ON CONSECUTIVE WAGNER PITCHES! Tad Iguchi knocked Werth in with a single. Iguchi then stole second base, and Jimmy Rollins was intentionally walked. Chase Utley followed with an RBI single (on Wagner's 45th pitch), scoring Iguchi with the WINNING RUN!!
The team STORMED the field in celebration, with Pat Burrell leading the way, as he did during the game. It was great seeing him show so much emotion today, from leaping in the outfield when CF Aaron Rowand made a great catch, to meeting Iguchi at the plate when he scored the winning run. Burrell had such a trying first half, but he has been, arguably, the best player in MLB in the second half. (As he has alway been one of my favorite players, it is great to see him doing so well, and taking a leadership role on the team.) Phillies Manager Charlie Manuel has made a habit of pulling Burrell out of the game in the 6th or 7th inning, much to my chagrin, throughout the season. But Burrell was kept in the game yesterday, and the Mets paid the price.
This single game demonstrated the resilience the Phillies have displayed all season. Despite all of the injuries that have decimated the roster, the Phillies have managed to stay in the playoff race. Even with a patchwork rotation, and a bullpen of castoffs, they continue to do what it takes to win. Behind the leadership of Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins. And Pat Burrell. I was too young to fully enjoy the great 1980 and 1983 seasons, and circumstances caused me to miss a lot of the remarkable 1993 season. But, after the sweep of the Mets, it looks like the Phillies are destined to be part of another remarkable pennant chase. It's really exciting to be a Phillies fan right now, and I can't wait to enjoy the ride ahead of us.
Phillies Beat Mets Again!
Before each of the first two games of the Phillies-Mets series, I greedily devoured the statistical goodness offered up by MLB.com's Press Pass. As is my way. Seeing the Mets' gaudy offensive statistics against Phillies starters Adam Eaton and Jamie Moyer was a bit disturbing. Considering that some of those .500+ batting averages had some serious sample size issues, I was able to assuage my own fears a bit. At least until the reality of the 5.00+ ERAs the two veteran starters have compiled over the entire season brought the fears back. I was concerned that a couple of poor starts, combined with the bullpen implosions which seem to, invariably, follow those poor starts would drop Philadelphia further behind New York in the divisional race. Blowout losses against the likes of the Dodgers and the Padres are bad, but getting blown out by the Mets is just infuriating. Because I just really, really hate those goddamn Mets. I may have mentioned that before.Turns out there was abso-frigging-lutely nothing to worry about. What a great couple of victories these two games were. In Tuesday night's game, Eaton allowed only two runs over 5.2 innings. The Phillies trailed, 2-0, going into the bottom of the eighth, but a Jimmy Rollins homer, and a fifty foot RBI single by Aaron Rowand, tied the game. Rowand's roller barely stayed fair- I suspect Whitey and Vuke were watching, somewhere far beyond, and conspired to keep the dribbler in fair territory. The looks of exasperation on the Mets' faces were priceless. Closer Brett Myers, who has struggled in non-save situations, pitched two scoreless innings. Ryan Howard finished things off with an incredible walk-off homer in the bottom of the 10th. An amazing victory, one of the Phillies' best this season. The Rowand dribbler and the Howard walkoff seems like sure bets to be featured in the Phillies' 2007 World Series DVD.
The Wednesday night win may have been just as exciting. Jimmy Rollins and Pat Burrell homered, backing a strong start by Jamie Moyer (6 IP, 2 ER). The Phillies' defense rose to the occasion, turning three double plays, and picking speedster Jose Reyes off first base twice. Even Abraham O. Nunez contributed with some fine defensive plays. (Still batting .242, but those plays at third were nice.) The Phillies took a 3-2 lead into the top of the 9th, and brought on Brett Myers for the save. Myers had pitched two innings the previous night, and didn't seem to be on top of his game. With one out, and runners on 1st and 3rd, Shawn Green hit a slow runner to SS Jimmy Rollins. He was able to get the force at second, but it was hit too slowly to turn a game-ending double play.
Except that the most miraculous play, in a season that has seen many miraculous plays, happened. Mets baserunner Marlon Anderson plowed over Phillies 2B Tadahito Iguchi, second-base umpire C. B. Bucknor ruled interference, and the game was over. JUST. INCREDIBLE. I've watched the Phillies' play-by-play clip about thirty times, and it still gives me chills every time. Harry Kalas seems resigned to a tie game, as he calls the slow roller. Chris Wheeler starts yelling "Interference!" Sarge is yelling, "Yes! Yes! C.B!" The Mets are going BALLISTIC, Marlon Anderson is LEAPING in the air in frustration, the Phillies are celebrating the win in the middle of field, as they filter through the the pile of INFURIATED Mets. HOLY. FUCK. What a way to win! Even better, what a way to win a game AGAINST THE METS! WITH DIVISIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP IMPLICATIONS! (Amazing clip available here!)
I guess I'm kind of still a little bit jacked up about Wednesday night's win. Kyle Lohse goes for the sweep this afternoon, with the Phils trailing the Mets by a mere THREE games! THREE! (It was seven games not too long ago!) What's next?!
Phillies Destroy Bucs

(originally posted 8/17/07)
The Cole Hamels bobblehead improved to 5-2, as the Phillies belted the Pirates, 11-8. Phillies SP J.D. (The Real Deal) Durbin pitched effectively, allowing only two earned runs in six innings in his fifth win. The Phils broke open a 2-1 game with four runs in the fifth, and then four more in the sixth. Pat Burrell went 3 for 3, picking up his 1000th career hit, three RBI, and his 18th homer of the season. Chris Coste and Jimmy Rollins each had three hits, and Aaron Rowand went 2 for 5, with 3 RBI. The Phillies blasted Pirates pitching for sixteen hits. The Bucs tried to come back, bombing Phillies relievers Clay Condrey, Jose Mesa, and Mike Zagurski (all of whom now have ERAs over 5.00), but the deficit (and the Cole bobblehead) were too much to overcome.
The Mets also won, so the NL East deficit remains at three games. But a Braves shutout loss, at the hands of D-Back ace Brandon Webb, extended the Phils' lead over 3rd place Atlanta to a game and a half. If the Astros can beat the Padres (and Jake Peavy) tonight, the Phillies will move into a tie for the Wild Card lead. (Peavy is one of the aces on my fantasy team, so I'm hoping for a low-scoring win for the 'Stros, and a no-decision for Peavy.) The Phillies will go for their third consecutive win Saturday night, sending Jamie Moyer to the mound. In his long career, Moyer has never lost a road game that preceded a concert by The PovertyNeck Hillbillies. With the Phillies streaking, and the Cole Hamels bobblehead in place, Moyer's streak probably won't end Saturday.
EDIT: Peavy pitched seven innings, allowing only one run, and striking out eleven. And got a no decision in the PADRES LOSS! The Phillies are now TIED FOR THE WILD CARD LEAD!
