Some Phillies-related news/links:
ESPN's Buster Olney reported that the Phillies had held "internal discussions" about acquiring Albert Pujols, in exchange for a package including Ryan Howard.
The Phillies have also held "internal discussions" about acquiring Matt Wieters, Ryan Zimmerman, Aroldis Chapman, both Jonas Brothers, both Sedin Brothers, Antero Niittymaki, and Sinbad.
Pujols would a great fit for the Phillies' lineup (or any lineup, ever), but St.Louis doesn't seem likely to deal Pujols. The Phils should, instead, set their sights on Sinbad, whom could likely be acquired for minor leaguer Tyson Brummett + cash.
Starting 3B Placido Polanco left Monday's game with a right knee injury, but he is expected to return to the lineup this weekend.
Watching an injured Polanco limp off the field was rather sobering. In a long-term injury scenario, Polanco's likely replacement at 3B would be Greg Dobbs, with Cody Ransom in reserve. While it is a relief that the name "Eric Bruntlett" was not used in the previous sentence, Dobbs and Ransom don't exactly inspire confidence. Hopefully, the good fortune the Phils have had in recent years, with respect to their frontline players, will continue.
Cole Hamels threw five innings in his third consecutive strong Spring start on Tuesday, allowing only an unearned run against Detroit.
Hamels' line so far in March: 10.2 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 9 K. Even more importantly, he threw ten cutters and nine curve balls. If Hamels can add some diversity to his fastball/change-heavy repertoire of previous seasons, Roy Halladay won't be the only Ace in the Phils' rotation.
Roy Halladay's numbers after three Spring starts: 10 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 14 K.
Halladay has looked outstanding, so far this spring. As if his on-field performance wasn't enough, he has mentored a rejuvenated Kyle Kendrick, as well as contributing to the rejuvenation of the Philly real estate market. The $2.3 MM mansion isn't located far from Cole Hamels' home, so Halladay will be available to counsel Hamels, whenever any high BABIP-related meltdowns occur.
In the competition for the fifth spot in the rotation, Kyle Kendrick has thrown nine scoreless frames, over three appearances. Jamie Moyer has been bombed in "B" games, while Drew Carpenter and Ryan Vogelsong have been sent to minor league camp.
Kendrick hasn't allowed a walk this spring, but he has only recorded two strikeouts, which is not a great sign. The competition has always been between Kendrick and Moyer, and is still weeks away from being decided.
Domonic Brown hit a pair of homers on Tuesday, improving his slash line to .417/.464/.750. For his efforts, Brown was sent to the minor league camp.
If the Phillies lose a starting outfielder to injury in 2010, it is good to know that they have a viable replacement: Ben Francisco. Brown is best-served with a full season of ABs at the AAA level, rather than sitting on the bench in Philly. In 2011, possibly depending on whether the Phils retain Jayson Werth, Brown could be an everyday MLBer/RoY candidate.
The Phillies' Minor League Spring Training teams can be followed this month, on the internets.
I, typically, complement my regular-season viewing of Phillies' games, with the internet radio broadcasts of the IronPigs and/or RPhils. However, I don't recall ML Spring Training info being so readily accessible in the past.
Lehigh Valley IronPigs (AAA)
Reading Phillies (AA)
Lakewood BlueClaws (A-)
In a bracket tournament of considerably more importance than that college basketball one, the Titans of the Phillies' Blogosphere are battling for bragging rights at The Phield.
Each morning at 8am, a matchup will be announced, with e-mailed votes accepted until 8pm.
This is a good opportunity to make certain that you are following all of the top Phillies' blogs, and also to discover blogs you haven't been reading. My personal favorite Phillies' blogs, The Zo Zone, Beerleaguer, The Good Phight, and Crashburn Alley all have reasonably good shots at achieving greatness.
Showing posts with label Placido Polanco. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Placido Polanco. Show all posts
Tuesday, March 16, 2010
Sunday, January 17, 2010
Phillies' Offseason Review: Major Additions
Remember when the cost-conscious Phillies were largely invisible during the offseason? Those days are almost as forgotten as those lost seasons when the Phillies were playing out the string by August. These Phillies have a $140 million budget, and are very active participants in free agency. Whether they should be a little less active is up for debate, but you can't argue with their recent results: three consecutive NL East titles, two World Series appearances, and one WFC(!).
Roy Halladay ('10 salary: $15.75M, 11: $20M, 12: $20M, 13:$20M, 14:$20M option)The cost to acquire Halladay was high: top prospects Kyle Drabek, Michael Taylor, and Travis D'Arnaud were sent to Toronto for one season of Halladay, plus $6M. Halladay quickly agreed to a (likely below-market value) extension, for an additional three years, plus an option.
Halladay has been one of MLB's premier pitchers over the past four seasons, posting WARs of 5.7, 5.6, 7.4, and 7.3. With the cost per WAR on the free agent market approximating $4M, if Halladay keeps his WARs over a very manageable (manageable for him, not manageable for most hurlers) 5.0 per season, the Phillies have done well here.
It remains to be seen how the players dealt to Toronto will perform, and if Halladay (930 IP since 2006) will be able stay healthy throughout his Phillies career. But the prospect of having Halladay (HALLADAY!) fronting the Phils' rotation for the next five seasons is rather thrilling.
Placido Polanco ($18M guaranteed over three seasons, plus '13 option for $5.5M)
The biggest names among free agent 3Bs were Adrian Beltre and Chone Figgins. The Phillies signed...2B Placido Polanco to play 3B. Polanco has been a strong defender at 2B, but it is questionable as to how well his arm will play at 3B. Polanco has seen his wOBA drop from .371 in 2007, to only .321 in 2009. Poor luck may have been a factor in 2009, as Polanco's BABIP of .295 was well below his career average of .314. Polanco will be thirty-five in October, and his offensive abilities may be on the decline.
Polanco posted a 3.1 WAR in 2009, largely due to his defensive prowess. But Polanco's UZR of 11.4 in 2009 may be overstating his fielding abilities. Over his previous three seasons, Polanco's has an average UZR of 7.5. Adjusting slightly for position change/age, an UZR between 5 and 6 seems more likely.
The Phillies will pay Polanco the (approximate) free agent market price for a 1.5 WAR player. Polanco will likely prove to be a good value in '10 and (possibly) '11, but the Phils may regret including that third year.
Brian Schneider ($2.75M guaranteed over two seasons)
The days of Paul Bako as the MLB backup are over. This is certainly a good thing.Schneider struggled offensively in '09, but part of that was due to a miniscule BABIP of .233 (career average BABIP: .281). His LD% dropped from 25.7% to 13.2%, so his difficulties with the bat might not have been all BABIP's fault.
Schneider, a capable defensive catcher, should provide the Phils with sufficient WAR value.
However, this is another case where the Phils may have been better off with a one-year deal. Instead of rushing to sign Schneider, the Phils may have been able to wait out the market a bit, and gotten a more favorable deal.
Danys Baez ($5.25M guaranteed over the next two seasons)
On the plus side, Baez is neither Brandon Lyon nor Fernando Rodney, both of whom got much more many, and may post similar results. On the minus side, two guaranteed years seems a year too much. Perhaps a one-year $1.5M deal would have been more appropriate, considering Baez' WAR of .3 in 2009.
Baez K/9 has decreased every season since 2004, and his 4.02 ERA last season was aided by an unsustainable .239 BABIP. If Baez can repeat last seasons GB% of 60.9%, he has a chance for some success in middle relief. Retaining Clay Condrey, at approx. one-third of Baez' salary, may have been more prudent decision.
Jose Contreras (reportedly, a one-year agreement for approx. $1 M)
With Chan Ho Park looking to find a spot in another MLB team's rotation, the Phils needed a veteran bullpen arm, who could make an occasional spot start. Contreras should fit this role quite nicely. Contreras posted some ugly conventional numbers as a starter in 2009, but a .325 BABIP and a 62.7 LOB% were factors. His FIP of 4.11 is not nearly as unsightly as his 5.42 ERA as a starter with the White Sox.
Contreras posted a K/BB of 2.00, with a K/9 of 7.25. He can still dial up his velocity to the low-90s, and should be an asset as a reliever, provided his workload is kept manageable.
Ross Gload ($2.6M guaranteed over two seasons)
Gload was signed to take the place of Matt Stairs as one of the Phils' primary bench options. Stairs posted a WAR of 0.0 in an ugly 2009, which was eerily similar to Gload's -.1 WAR. Gload has little power and little defensive value. He is a below average offensive player, and it is questionable as to why the Phils felt the need to give him a second guaranteed year.
The Phils likely could have filled this role more cheaply with a AAAA player (Andy Tracy?), and then upgraded with a cheap salary dump for the stretch run, if desired.
Juan Castro ('10 salary: $.70M, 11: $.75M option/$50K buyout)
Castro, who will be 38 years of age in June, had a career year in 2009, posting a .277 BA. Castro's sudden offensive surge was likely the byproduct of an aberrant .349 BABIP (career BABIP: .267). Only five of Castro's thirty-one hits in 2009 were for extra bases (four doubles, one homer).
Castro will be the backup SS, going 0 for 3, with a strikeout, once every couple of weeks. He will also be used as a pinch-hitter more frequently than he merits, and will replace Jimmy Rollins late in blowouts less frequently than he should.
Hopefully, Chase Utley's days off will be covered by moving Polanco to 2B, and starting Greg Dobbs at 3B. Getting Dobbs more playing time should make him a more effective player, and getting Castro less playing time should make Phillies fans less disconcerted.
The Phils probably should have just saved .30M, and rostered Wilson Valdez as the backup middle infielder.
The Phillies have made some good moves for 2010, but may have overpaid a bit in term and salary. Last offseason, the Phillies rushed into the market, signing Raul Ibanez for three years, and Jamie Moyer for two. This offseason the Phillies rushed to give Placido Polanco three years, and Danys Baez (and Ross Gload and Brian Schneider) two. These extra years given to declining veterans may combine to exact a price in future fiscal flexibility.
General Manager Ruben Amaro, Jr. has been quick and decisive in his forays into the free agent market. With Jayson Werth and Ryan Howard approaching free agency, in the next two offseasons, respectively, the cumulative weight of these ill-advised contracts may come back to haunt the Phillies. But we'll worry about that after the Phillies' third consecutive World Series appearance, this October.
Roy Halladay ('10 salary: $15.75M, 11: $20M, 12: $20M, 13:$20M, 14:$20M option)The cost to acquire Halladay was high: top prospects Kyle Drabek, Michael Taylor, and Travis D'Arnaud were sent to Toronto for one season of Halladay, plus $6M. Halladay quickly agreed to a (likely below-market value) extension, for an additional three years, plus an option.
Halladay has been one of MLB's premier pitchers over the past four seasons, posting WARs of 5.7, 5.6, 7.4, and 7.3. With the cost per WAR on the free agent market approximating $4M, if Halladay keeps his WARs over a very manageable (manageable for him, not manageable for most hurlers) 5.0 per season, the Phillies have done well here.
It remains to be seen how the players dealt to Toronto will perform, and if Halladay (930 IP since 2006) will be able stay healthy throughout his Phillies career. But the prospect of having Halladay (HALLADAY!) fronting the Phils' rotation for the next five seasons is rather thrilling.
Placido Polanco ($18M guaranteed over three seasons, plus '13 option for $5.5M)
The biggest names among free agent 3Bs were Adrian Beltre and Chone Figgins. The Phillies signed...2B Placido Polanco to play 3B. Polanco has been a strong defender at 2B, but it is questionable as to how well his arm will play at 3B. Polanco has seen his wOBA drop from .371 in 2007, to only .321 in 2009. Poor luck may have been a factor in 2009, as Polanco's BABIP of .295 was well below his career average of .314. Polanco will be thirty-five in October, and his offensive abilities may be on the decline.
Polanco posted a 3.1 WAR in 2009, largely due to his defensive prowess. But Polanco's UZR of 11.4 in 2009 may be overstating his fielding abilities. Over his previous three seasons, Polanco's has an average UZR of 7.5. Adjusting slightly for position change/age, an UZR between 5 and 6 seems more likely.
The Phillies will pay Polanco the (approximate) free agent market price for a 1.5 WAR player. Polanco will likely prove to be a good value in '10 and (possibly) '11, but the Phils may regret including that third year.
Brian Schneider ($2.75M guaranteed over two seasons)
The days of Paul Bako as the MLB backup are over. This is certainly a good thing.Schneider struggled offensively in '09, but part of that was due to a miniscule BABIP of .233 (career average BABIP: .281). His LD% dropped from 25.7% to 13.2%, so his difficulties with the bat might not have been all BABIP's fault.
Schneider, a capable defensive catcher, should provide the Phils with sufficient WAR value.
However, this is another case where the Phils may have been better off with a one-year deal. Instead of rushing to sign Schneider, the Phils may have been able to wait out the market a bit, and gotten a more favorable deal.
Danys Baez ($5.25M guaranteed over the next two seasons)
On the plus side, Baez is neither Brandon Lyon nor Fernando Rodney, both of whom got much more many, and may post similar results. On the minus side, two guaranteed years seems a year too much. Perhaps a one-year $1.5M deal would have been more appropriate, considering Baez' WAR of .3 in 2009.
Baez K/9 has decreased every season since 2004, and his 4.02 ERA last season was aided by an unsustainable .239 BABIP. If Baez can repeat last seasons GB% of 60.9%, he has a chance for some success in middle relief. Retaining Clay Condrey, at approx. one-third of Baez' salary, may have been more prudent decision.
Jose Contreras (reportedly, a one-year agreement for approx. $1 M)
With Chan Ho Park looking to find a spot in another MLB team's rotation, the Phils needed a veteran bullpen arm, who could make an occasional spot start. Contreras should fit this role quite nicely. Contreras posted some ugly conventional numbers as a starter in 2009, but a .325 BABIP and a 62.7 LOB% were factors. His FIP of 4.11 is not nearly as unsightly as his 5.42 ERA as a starter with the White Sox.
Contreras posted a K/BB of 2.00, with a K/9 of 7.25. He can still dial up his velocity to the low-90s, and should be an asset as a reliever, provided his workload is kept manageable.
Ross Gload ($2.6M guaranteed over two seasons)
Gload was signed to take the place of Matt Stairs as one of the Phils' primary bench options. Stairs posted a WAR of 0.0 in an ugly 2009, which was eerily similar to Gload's -.1 WAR. Gload has little power and little defensive value. He is a below average offensive player, and it is questionable as to why the Phils felt the need to give him a second guaranteed year.
The Phils likely could have filled this role more cheaply with a AAAA player (Andy Tracy?), and then upgraded with a cheap salary dump for the stretch run, if desired.
Juan Castro ('10 salary: $.70M, 11: $.75M option/$50K buyout)
Castro, who will be 38 years of age in June, had a career year in 2009, posting a .277 BA. Castro's sudden offensive surge was likely the byproduct of an aberrant .349 BABIP (career BABIP: .267). Only five of Castro's thirty-one hits in 2009 were for extra bases (four doubles, one homer).
Castro will be the backup SS, going 0 for 3, with a strikeout, once every couple of weeks. He will also be used as a pinch-hitter more frequently than he merits, and will replace Jimmy Rollins late in blowouts less frequently than he should.
Hopefully, Chase Utley's days off will be covered by moving Polanco to 2B, and starting Greg Dobbs at 3B. Getting Dobbs more playing time should make him a more effective player, and getting Castro less playing time should make Phillies fans less disconcerted.
The Phils probably should have just saved .30M, and rostered Wilson Valdez as the backup middle infielder.
The Phillies have made some good moves for 2010, but may have overpaid a bit in term and salary. Last offseason, the Phillies rushed into the market, signing Raul Ibanez for three years, and Jamie Moyer for two. This offseason the Phillies rushed to give Placido Polanco three years, and Danys Baez (and Ross Gload and Brian Schneider) two. These extra years given to declining veterans may combine to exact a price in future fiscal flexibility.
General Manager Ruben Amaro, Jr. has been quick and decisive in his forays into the free agent market. With Jayson Werth and Ryan Howard approaching free agency, in the next two offseasons, respectively, the cumulative weight of these ill-advised contracts may come back to haunt the Phillies. But we'll worry about that after the Phillies' third consecutive World Series appearance, this October.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
