Great Moments in Win Probability

.7%. The probability that Pat Burrell wasn't trying to hold back tears during the Ring Ceremony. The probability that someone other than Harry Kalas could pull off the outfit that the Voice of the Phillies was sporting during the ceremony. The probability that the Phillies would come back from a 10-3 deficit with one out in the bottom of the 7th against the Braves this afternoon.

As the Atlanta bullpen prepared to close out the series sweep, disappointed fans began to exit CBP. The internets were also rife with frustrated Phillies fans. This replacement level blogger was preparing to write that even the best teams will have three-game segments over the long season in which they lose all three games. (The 2008 Phillies had eleven such three-game segments.)

After Braves reliever Eric O'Flaherty retired Shane Victorino to start the 7th, Atlanta began to experience some bullpen issues. Single. HBP. Pitching change. BB. Single. Single. BB. Pitching change. BB. BB. Pitching change. Single. BB. Groundout. Ten consecutive Phillies reached base, turning a 10-3 deficit into an 11-10 lead. The probability of a Phillies win had increased from .7% to 79.2%. After Ryan Madson retired the Braves in order in the 8th, the Phillies picked up an insurance run. Phillies closer Brad Lidge permitted a solo homer in the 9th, but picked up the save in the Phillies' first 2009 win. Phillies starter Joe Blanton was off the hook for his four inning, seven earned run, -.470 WPA performance, thanks to Chase Utley (2 for 4, .230 WPA), Raul Ibanez (2 for 3, 2 BB, 1 HR, .208 WPA), and a disastrous showing by the Braves relief corps.

The memorable afternoon had begun with the distribution of the World Series rings. The rings made their way to the field in a Citizens Bank van, with a police motorcycle escort. Each of the 2008 Phillies was given, in words spoken by Harry the K, a "priceless artifact that cannot be purchased, only earned." The 3.84 karat rings were a "gleaming testimony to the Phillies' remarkable achievements of last Fall." Geoff Jenkins and Pat Burrell were in attendance, with Burrell appearing less than five hours before his game in Boston tonight. Inexplicably, Adam Eaton also appeared, and was showered with raucous boos. (Eaton's 5.97 FIP of 2007, and 5.29 FIP of 2008 were not forgotten.) Sadly, So Taguchi (Iowa Cubs) and Rudy Seanez (Stone Cold Creamery) were unable to attend, due to other obligations. The Game Five lineup was introduced, in reverse order, to receive their "priceless artifacts", as the capacity crowd exploded. It was fortunate that Burrell was able to attend, as it wouldn't have been the same without him. Eaton, though, really should have stayed in Baltimore.

The Phillies travel to Colorado, where Cole Hamels will make his 2009 debut Friday afternoon. Hamels faces Jason Marquis (4.61 FIP in 2008), as the Phils attempt to even their record. The day off should be spent in reflection of a truly memorable day in the Phillies' history, as well as in the history of Win Probability. It is suggested that you begin your reflection with the timeless and elegant beauty displayed here.