Lohse on My Mind

I dream of Kyle Lohse every night. Yes, the same Kyle Lohse who allowed the Kaz Matsui grand slam in Game 2. The Kyle Lohse who has such luminaries as John Thomson, Brian Moehler, and Mark Redman on his baseball-reference list of similar players. The Kyle Lohse who had a 1.37 WHIP last season, along with an ERA+ of 100.

The Phillies lineup is going to rack up the strikeouts this season. But they are also going to rack up the runs. It wouldn't be shocking to see that lineup lead the NL in runs and OBP. Yes, even with Feliz' horrendous .300 OBP bringing down the average.

But the current starting rotation is the stuff of nightmares. Brett Myers and Cole Hamels should be fine. All-stars, even, provided they can stay healthy. It's the other spots that scare the bejeezus out of me.

Jamie Moyer is 45. Last season, he paired a 1.445 WHIP with an ERA+ of 92. Putrid. He's likely to regress even further this season. He should be a #5 starter. Or a pitching coach in A ball.

Kyle Kendrick was outstanding last season. The Phillies would not have come anywhere close to the playoffs without him. But he has only 20 MLB starts. Anything could happen with him this season, as evidenced by his baseball-reference list of similar players, which includes Roy Halladay and Hipolito Pichardo. He could be the Phillies' #3 by midseason. Or the Iron Pigs' #3.

I don't even want to talk about the other spot in the rotation. Adam Eaton, by virtue of his $8 million contract, will likely open the season as the #5. This, despite a 2007 stat line that is too obscene to describe in this family-friendly blog. His competition consists of J.D. Durbin, who should be in middle relief with the Iron Pigs, and Travis Blackley, a Moyer-esque soft-tosser. They are two of the few pitchers in MLB who could actually be worse options than Eaton. Kris Benson should be ready in a few months, and will probably take Eaton's spot in the rotation. If things go well for Benson, his numbers should approximate...Kyle Lohse's.

That's an awful lot of below-league-average innings for a team looking to contend. As mediocre as Lohse is, his league-average innings would be an upgrade. He could be the difference between a playoff run, and finishing a few games out of the postseason. Even with a projected payroll in the $105 million range, if they could get Lohse for one year (at $6 million or less), the Phillies need to do it. It's going to be difficult to retain the nucleus of this team in future years, and the window of opportunity for contending could close sooner than we think.